2025/9/1 1 资料来源：国金证券研究所 2 25Q2建筑建材持仓小结：传统板块承压，AI材料+出海+转型表现突出。 水泥行业：涨价+降本修复利润，出海表现靓丽，供给侧查超产继续推进。 消费建材：景气依然在底部，但Q2龙头拐点频现；资产负债表修复是慢变量，各企业节奏不同； 降本控费主旋律，粗放式向高效率过渡。 玻纤行业：AI高景气催化特种玻纤需求，传统玻纤毛利率环比继续改善。 玻璃行业：磨底之年，继续观测供给端变化。 投资建议：一方面，看好AI PCB上游新材料的空间，龙头企业技术壁垒高、产品迭代升级快， 有望保持先发优势；另一方面，继续看好"一带一路"出海，关注非洲瓷砖龙头、水泥龙头、 玻纤龙头，以及关注内需大环境下、依托内生竞争力逐步走出增长趋势的涂料龙头，和"反内 卷"带动水泥、光伏玻璃、锂电隔膜等多行业盈利趋势改善。 风险提示：原材料价格波动的风险、政策落地情况不及预期、市场竞争激烈的风险。 1.1 AI + + 2020Q3-2025Q2：建材板块基金持仓比例变化趋势 2020Q3-2025Q2：建筑板块基金持仓比例变化趋势 1.32% 0.95% 1.20% 0.97% 0.85% 1.04 ...

证券研究报告 建筑材料 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 01 日 公司盈利能力改善，关注供给侧积极变化 ——海螺水泥（600585.SH）2025 年半年报点评报告 投资评级：增持（维持） 最近一年走势 | 当前价格（元） | 24.35 | | --- | --- | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 19.53-28.75 | | 总市值（百万元） | 129,038.02 | | 流通市值（百万元） | 97,392.76 | | 总股本（万股） | 529,930.26 | | 流通股（万股） | 399,970.26 | | 近一月换手（%） | 25.59 | 分析师：彭棋 执业证书编号：S0230523080002 邮箱：pengq@hlzq.com 《行业协同加强有望筑底，公司盈利能 力有望改善—海螺水泥（600585.SH） 2024 年年报点评报告》2025.03.26 华龙证券研究所 事件： 2025 年 8 月 27 日，海螺水泥发布 2025 年半年报：2025 年上半 年公司实现营业收入 412.92 亿元，同比下滑 9.38%；实现归属上市公 司股东的净利润 43.68 亿元，同 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a shift in the macro narrative affecting the A-share market, driven by internal policies aimed at demand stimulation and external factors such as a weakening dollar [5][6]. - The report identifies a rotation in investment focus from TMT and manufacturing sectors to other areas, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-low switching strategies in the technology sector, recommending stocks like Kunlun Wanwei, Leisai Intelligent, and Jingchen Co. for investment [5][10][14]. Group 2 - Kunlun Wanwei is focusing on AI business development, with significant advancements in AI chip research and application, leading to a positive outlook for its commercialization potential [10][11]. - Leisai Intelligent is expanding its market share in the automation sector, leveraging its strong product matrix and partnerships to capture growth opportunities [14][15]. - Jingchen Co. is experiencing robust growth in its AIoT and WiFi chip segments, with significant sales increases and a strong customer base [19][20]. Group 3 - Conch Cement is positioned to benefit from supply-side reforms and industry policy improvements, which are expected to enhance profitability and market conditions [24][25]. - Luzhou Laojiao is implementing proactive marketing strategies to adapt to market cycles, aiming to capture demand in emerging consumer segments [30][31]. - Jerry Holdings is poised for recovery as it capitalizes on the resurgence of high-end liquor demand and maintains a strong digital marketing framework [34][35]. Group 4 - New Hope Liuhe is leveraging its integrated supply chain advantages in the fine chemical sector, focusing on vitamin and amino acid production to enhance competitiveness [39][40]. - Xinhecheng is expected to benefit from rising prices in the vitamin market and increased demand for its amino acid products, supported by its strong production capabilities [39][41]. - Newnovel is projected to see significant revenue growth driven by its innovative drug pipeline, particularly in the oncology sector [43][44]. Group 5 - The report anticipates that the financial technology sector, represented by companies like Zhinan Zhen, will continue to grow as it transitions into comprehensive financial service providers [48][49]. - Zhinan Zhen's strategic acquisitions and capital operations are expected to enhance its market position and profitability in the coming years [48][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [1][2] Core Insights - Recent policies in Beijing and Shanghai have relaxed housing purchase restrictions, which is expected to boost market confidence and sales [2][26] - The overall performance of listed real estate companies remains under pressure, with a focus on the recovery of their balance sheets [2][28] - The building materials sector is experiencing a gradual recovery in demand, particularly in cement and glass fiber, driven by urban renewal projects and seasonal construction activities [3][44] Real Estate Sector Summary - The real estate sector has seen a 0.97% increase over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.25 percentage points [14] - The sector's performance is influenced by recent policy changes aimed at stabilizing the market and improving sales data [2][26] - Key companies to watch include Poly Developments, Binjiang Group, and China Merchants Shekou, which are focusing on first- and second-tier cities [2][28] Building Materials Sector Summary - The building materials sector has increased by 2.86% over the past two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 19.28% [29] - Cement prices are stabilizing, with a national average price of 316 RMB per ton, while inventory levels are gradually decreasing [33][44] - The glass fiber industry is showing signs of structural recovery, benefiting from demand in wind power and electronics sectors [3][45] Company Performance Highlights - In the consumer building materials segment, leading companies like Sanke Tree and Rabbit Baby have shown significant profit recovery, with Sanke Tree's net profit increasing by 109.30% year-on-year [48] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and competitive advantages, such as Beixin Building Materials and Sanke Tree [48]

高盛发布研报称，海螺水泥（600585）(00914)上半年净利润为46亿元人民币，同比增长33%。若剔除产 能置换相关拨备等一次性项目，经常性净利润达51亿元人民币，同比增长32%。该行认为业绩好过预 期，主要受惠于海外市场水泥业务利润率提升，以及预拌混凝土(RMC)与骨料业务表现优于预期。该行 降其今年经常性纯利预测13%以反映内地市场水泥利润率持续低企，但对明后两年预测大致不变。H股 目标价由27港元升至31港元，A股(600585.SH)目标价由27元人民币升至32元人民币，均维持"买入"评 级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reported that Conch Cement (00914) achieved a net profit of 4.6 billion RMB in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 33% [1] Financial Performance - Excluding one-time items related to capacity replacement provisions, the recurring net profit reached 5.1 billion RMB, up 32% year-on-year [1] - The performance exceeded expectations, primarily benefiting from improved profit margins in the overseas cement business and better-than-expected results in ready-mixed concrete (RMC) and aggregate businesses [1] Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs lowered its recurring net profit forecast for the current year by 13% to reflect the ongoing low profit margins in the domestic cement market, while maintaining forecasts for the next two years largely unchanged [1] Target Price Changes - The target price for H-shares was raised from 27 HKD to 31 HKD, and the target price for A-shares (600585.SH) was increased from 27 RMB to 32 RMB, with a "Buy" rating maintained [1]

28 August 2025 | 8:13PM HKT Anhui Conch Cement (0914.HK) Earnings Review: 1H25 above expectation with solid operations; a better 2026 ahead with potential industry supply work; Maintain Buy | 0914.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$31.00 | Price: HK$23.92 | Upside: 29.6% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600585.SS | 12m Price Target: Rmb32.00 | Price: Rmb24.59 | Upside: 30.1% | Conch reported 1H25A NP of Rmb4.6bn, or EPS of Rmb0.874/sh, up 33% yoy. Excluding one-offs, including provisions related to capacity swaps, recu ...

曲公司 环保 2025 年 08 月 28 日 器制VIV 投资收益带动利润增长，自由现金流转正 报告原因:有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点: | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | 人民币 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (百万元) | 8,015 | 6,271 | 6,128 | 5,853 | 5,580 | | 同比增长率(%) | 2% | -22% | -2% | -4% | -5% | | 净利润（百万元） | 2,464 | 2,020 | 2.352 | 2,446 | 2,540 | | 同比增长率(%) | | -18% | 16% | 4% | 4% | | 每股收益(元) | 1.37 | 1.13 | 1.31 | 1.37 | 1.42 | | 市盈率(倍) | 7.2 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.0 | | 市净率（倍） | 0.38 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走 ...

Core Viewpoint - Anhui Conch Cement's 1H25 results show a decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit, indicating resilience in a challenging market environment [1]. Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 9.4% YoY to Rmb41.3 billion in 1H25, while attributable net profit increased by 31.3% YoY to Rmb4.37 billion [1]. - In 2Q25, revenue fell 8.2% YoY to Rmb22.24 billion, but net profit attributable to shareholders rose 40.3% YoY to Rmb2.56 billion [1]. - Gross profit per tonne of self-produced cement and clinker improved, with unit price rising Rmb4 YoY to Rmb244 and unit cost falling Rmb13 YoY to Rmb174 [2]. Sales and Production Trends - The decline in cement and clinker sales volume was only 0.35% YoY to 126 million tonnes in 1H25, significantly better than the industry average [1]. - The firm's overseas sales volume of cement and clinker increased by 20.4% YoY in 1H25, supported by projects in Xinjiang and Cambodia [3]. Aggregates and Manufactured Sand - Revenue from aggregates and manufactured sand fell 3.6% YoY to Rmb2.1 billion, with gross margin decreasing by 3.97 percentage points YoY to 43.87% [4]. Expense Management - The expense ratio rose 0.6 percentage points YoY to 10.2%, with G&A expense ratio increasing by 1.5 percentage points YoY to 7.1% [5]. Cash Flow and Dividend - Net operating cash flow reached Rmb8.3 billion in 1H25, up from Rmb6.9 billion in 1H24, with a proposed cash dividend of Rmb0.24 per share, accounting for 29% of 1H25 attributable net profit [6]. Valuation and Forecast - EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were cut by 11% and 7% to Rmb1.81 and Rmb1.98 respectively, with A-shares trading at 14x 2025e and 13x 2026e P/E [7].

海螺水泥(600585.SH)公告称，2025年上半年营业收入412.92亿元，同比下降9.38%。归属于上市公司股 东的净利润43.68亿元，同比增长31.34%。 ...