Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [3] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's profitability is expected to improve as the industry stabilizes, despite a significant decline in revenue and profit in 2024 due to a downturn in the cement market and real estate sector [3][5] - The cement industry is anticipated to experience a "bottoming out and recovery" trend in 2025, supported by infrastructure demand and ongoing supply-side reforms [5][6] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 91.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 35.51% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.70 billion yuan, down 26.19% year-on-year [3] Industry Outlook - The cement industry faced a significant downturn in 2024, with a 10.6% decrease in real estate investment leading to a 9.5% drop in national cement production [5] - The report forecasts a recovery in 2025, driven by continued infrastructure demand and government efforts to stabilize the real estate market [5] Company Strategy - The company is focusing on strengthening its core cement business while expanding internationally and integrating its upstream and downstream operations [5] - Key projects include the establishment of overseas offices and the commissioning of new production facilities in various countries [5] Financial Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 2.48% for 2025, with expected revenues of 93.29 billion yuan, and net profit of 9.87 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery trend [6][7] - The report estimates a PE ratio of 13.0 for 2025, compared to an average of 14.7 for comparable companies [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [12] Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue for 2024, with total revenue of 91.03 billion yuan, down 35.51% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.696 billion yuan, down 26.19% year-on-year. However, Q4 showed signs of recovery with a net profit of 2.498 billion yuan, up 42.27% year-on-year despite a revenue decline of 45.53% [4][5] - The company has strengthened its production scheduling, leading to a notable improvement in profitability in Q4, with a gross margin increase of 15.7 percentage points to 28.2% [5] - The company’s market share in cement production has continued to rise, with self-produced cement sales of 26.8 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 6.1% year-on-year, while the national cement production fell by 9.5% [5] - For 2025, demand is expected to improve slightly, supported by increased infrastructure spending and the issuance of special bonds, which may enhance overall demand for cement [5] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% from 2025 to 2027, with a strong cash flow of 18.5 billion yuan in 2024 and planned capital expenditures of 11.98 billion yuan for 2025 [6] - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are 103.7 billion yuan and 105.4 billion yuan, respectively, with expected net profits of 9.378 billion yuan and 9.772 billion yuan, indicating growth rates of 21.9% and 4.2% [6][8] Financial Summary - The company’s total market capitalization is 128.7 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 5.299 billion shares and a circulating share capital of 4 billion shares [3] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is 12.33, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 19.6% [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 1.77 yuan and 1.84 yuan, respectively [8][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 37.33 CNY, while the current price is 24.29 CNY [1][5][12]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 annual report meets expectations, with significant recovery in gross profit per ton of cement in Q4 2024, reflecting the price increase effects in East China. The reduction in capital expenditures further optimizes cash flow, and dividend expectations are likely to rise [2][12]. - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 91.03 billion CNY, down 35.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.696 billion CNY, down 26.2% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue was 22.879 billion CNY, down 45.53% year-on-year, while net profit was 2.498 billion CNY, up 42.27% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [12]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: 2023A: 141.157 billion CNY, 2024A: 91.030 billion CNY, 2025E: 92.609 billion CNY [4][13]. - **Net Profit (attributable to shareholders)**: 2023A: 10.428 billion CNY, 2024A: 7.696 billion CNY, 2025E: 10.403 billion CNY [4][13]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: 2023A: 1.97 CNY, 2024A: 1.45 CNY, 2025E: 1.96 CNY [4][13]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: 2023A: 5.6%, 2024A: 4.1%, 2025E: 5.4% [4][13]. - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)**: 2023A: 12.58, 2024A: 17.04, 2025E: 12.61 [4][13]. Market Position - The company maintained a leading market share in cement delivery rates throughout the year, despite a decline in sales volume in Q4 2024, indicating a stable market position as a leading enterprise [12]. - The average selling price of self-produced cement and clinker in 2024 was 246 CNY per ton, down 28 CNY per ton year-on-year, with a gross profit of 59 CNY per ton, down 9 CNY per ton year-on-year [12]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to significantly reduce capital expenditures, with cash payments for fixed assets and other long-term assets amounting to 11.3 billion CNY in 2024, a substantial reduction compared to previous years. The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% for 2025-2027, indicating an improvement in cash flow and dividend expectations [12].

Core Viewpoint - Company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but showed strong recovery in Q4 with improved profitability and rising cement prices [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 91.03 billion yuan, down 35.51% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.696 billion yuan, down 26.19% [1] - Q4 2024 revenue was 22.879 billion yuan, down 45.53% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 42.27% to 2.498 billion yuan [1] - The company's gross margin improved significantly in Q4, reaching 28.1% compared to 17.7% in Q1 [1] Sales and Pricing - The company's self-produced cement clinker sales were 26.8 million tons in 2024, down 6.05%, outperforming the industry average decline of 9.5% [2] - The average price of self-produced cement clinker was 246 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton year-on-year, while the cost per ton decreased to 187 yuan/ton [2] Business Expansion - The company’s aggregate business generated revenue of 4.691 billion yuan in 2024, up 21.4%, and ready-mixed concrete business revenue was 2.674 billion yuan, up 18.6% [2] - The revenue share of the aggregate business increased from 0.6% in 2020 to 5.2% in 2024 [2] International Development - The company is expanding its overseas presence with new offices in Africa and South America, and projects in Uzbekistan and Cambodia [3] - Overseas self-produced revenue contributed 4.677 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 32.33% [3] Shareholder Returns - The company committed to a cash dividend and share buyback plan, aiming for a payout ratio of at least 50% of net profit from 2025 to 2027 [3] Profit Forecast - The company adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 9.871 billion, 10.685 billion, and 11.643 billion yuan respectively [4] - Current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13.0, 12.0, and 11.1 for the respective years [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a current stock price of 24.75 CNY [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 91.03 billion CNY, down 35.5% year-on-year, and net profit at 7.70 billion CNY, down 26.2% year-on-year. A cash dividend of 0.71 CNY per share is proposed [3][4]. - The fourth quarter shows signs of profit improvement, with a notable increase in gross margin to 28.1%, up 15.7 percentage points year-on-year, leading to a net profit of 2.50 billion CNY [6][9]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout of at least 50% of net profit for the next three years, with a total cash dividend and share buyback amounting to 50.78% of net profit for 2024 [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 9.31 billion CNY and 10.34 billion CNY respectively, while the 2027 forecast is set at 11.10 billion CNY [9][10]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 24.7% by 2027, with net profit margins also expected to rise [11][12]. - The company’s capital expenditure for 2024 is planned at 15.62 billion CNY, slightly higher than the previous year, focusing on expanding aggregate and ready-mixed concrete production capacity [6][7]. Industry Outlook - The cement industry is expected to recover gradually, with price increases anticipated in March 2025, driven by supply-side reforms and production adjustments among leading companies [6][9]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the cement industry, with strong cost control and attractive valuation metrics, despite the downward adjustment in profit forecasts [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the self-discipline in the supply side of the cement industry has led to a rebound in profits from the bottom [8] - The company achieved a total revenue of 91.03 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 35.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.696 billion yuan, down 26.2% year-on-year [12] - The report emphasizes the company's cost control measures and the impact of reduced coal prices on profitability, which has allowed it to outperform peers [13] Summary by Sections Event - The company disclosed its 2024 annual report, reporting total revenue of 91.03 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.696 billion yuan, with a cash dividend of 0.71 yuan per share [12] Commentary - The self-discipline in the cement supply side has led to a rebound in Q4 profits, with a total sales volume of 268 million tons, down 6.1% year-on-year, and an average price of 246 yuan per ton [13] - The company has seen a decrease in sales volume but an increase in profit margins due to effective cost management and rising cement prices in Q4 [13] - The company is expanding its overseas operations, adding 2.3 million tons of overseas clinker capacity and 8 million tons of cement capacity through relocations [13] Financial Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to see net profits of 10.9 billion yuan in 2025 and 12.2 billion yuan in 2026, with a new forecast for 2027 at 12.6 billion yuan [17] - The report indicates that the current price-to-book ratio for the cement sector is at a historical low, suggesting potential for valuation recovery as industry self-discipline improves [17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the self-discipline on the supply side of the cement industry has led to a rebound in profits from the bottom [8] - The company achieved total revenue of 91.03 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 35.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.696 billion yuan, down 26.2% year-on-year [12] - The report emphasizes the company's cost advantages and the effectiveness of supply-side discipline in stabilizing cement prices [13][14] Summary by Sections Event - The company disclosed its 2024 annual report, reporting total revenue of 91.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.696 billion yuan, down 26.2% year-on-year. The fourth quarter alone saw revenue of 22.879 billion yuan, a decrease of 45.5% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 42.3% to 2.498 billion yuan [12] Commentary - The self-discipline in the cement industry has led to a rebound in profits in Q4. The company's sales volume of cement and clinker was 268 million tons, down 6.1% year-on-year, with an average price of 246 yuan per ton, a gross profit of 59 yuan, and a net profit of 29 yuan per ton, all showing declines. The cost per ton decreased by 18 yuan to 187 yuan due to better fuel substitution and raw material procurement [13] - Despite continued pressure on cement demand in the second half of 2024, the self-discipline in supply management has shown significant results, stabilizing national cement prices at high levels [13] - The company is expanding its overseas operations, establishing offices in Africa and South America, and increasing its clinker production capacity by 2.3 million tons [13] Financial Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to demonstrate cost leadership and expand its industrial chain, providing new growth momentum. The report raises the profit forecast for 2025-2026 to 10.9 billion and 12.2 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 12.6 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12, 11, and 10 times [17]

公司 24 年全年实现归母净利润 76.96 亿元，Q4 扣非利润环比显著修复 公司发布 24 年年报，全年实现收入/归母净利润 910.30/76.96 亿元，同比-35.51%/-26.19%， 全年实现扣非归母净利润 73.65 亿元，同比-26.06%。其中 Q4 单季度实现收入/归母净利润 228.79/24.98 亿元，同比-45.53%/+42.27%，扣非归母净利润 24.86 亿元，同比+37.38%，非经 常性损益主要系计入当期损益的政府补助。 公司项目持续扩张，看好水泥复价带动公司利润向上 公司 24 年自产水泥熟料收入同比-12.89%达 732.14 亿元，自产自销水泥熟料销量同比-6.05% 达 2.68 亿吨，吨均价同比下滑 21.7 元达 273.2 元/吨，吨成本同比下降 13.7 元达 205.4 元/ 吨，最终实现吨毛利 67.8 元/吨，同比减少 8.1 元，预计吨净利在 25 元上下，同比约下降 13 元左右。24 年公司骨料销售收入达 46.91 亿元，同比+21.4%，毛利率 46.9%，同比-1.41pct。 24 年公司持续扩张，国内八菱海螺迁建项目、蒙城海螺 ...

林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 建筑材料 | 水泥 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 25 日 证券分析师 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报，实现收入 910.30 亿元，同比下降 35.51%，归母净利 润 76.96 亿元，同比下降 26.19%；其中单四季度实现收入 228.79 亿元，同比下滑 45.53%，归母净利润 24.98 亿元，同比增长 42.27%。业绩符合预期。公司 2024 年 年度权益分配预案拟每 10 股派发现金红利人民币 7.10 元，合计派发现金红利人民 币 37.47 亿元，对应股息率 2.86%。 联系人 市场表现： 行业低景气致使 ...

证券研究报告 建筑材料 | 水泥 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 25 日 证券分析师 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | | 24 | 月 | 03 | | | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | 24.75 | | | | | | | / 最 低 | 最 | 高 | | | | | | | 内 | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市 ...