FF301 | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 600585 | 說明 | A股 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,999,702,579 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 3,999,702,579 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,999,702,579 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 3,999,702,579 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： RMB 5,299,302,579 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 安徽海螺水泥股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年1 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares have lower trading costs and better market liquidity compared to H-shares, with a current premium of about 20% for A-shares as indicated by the Hang Seng AH Premium Index (HSAHP) being above 120. However, certain companies like CATL have shown a reverse phenomenon where H-shares are priced higher than A-shares [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of H-shares trading at a premium over A-shares is attributed to the smaller market capitalization of H-shares compared to A-shares, leading to relative scarcity in liquidity [5]. - Among the six companies exhibiting this "inversion," three are newly listed, resulting in lower liquidity for H-shares, which can lead to inflated prices due to concentrated holdings by large institutions [5][6]. - As institutional investors gradually exit their positions, the liquidity of H-shares is expected to increase, potentially narrowing the premium of H-shares over A-shares [5]. Group 2: Characteristics of A-H Share Companies - Companies with inverted pricing typically share common traits: they are large enterprises with stable operating histories and solid financials, often in traditional industries like finance and energy [6]. - The valuation of these companies tends to be higher in the A-share market, reflecting differing expectations from overseas investors regarding future growth potential [6][8]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Preferences - Foreign investors prefer industry leaders that have a competitive edge in the market, which are often scarce in the international market [8]. - These leading companies usually possess strong brand recognition, stable profitability, and good governance structures, aligning with foreign investors' long-term investment criteria [8][9]. - The preference for H-shares over A-shares is also influenced by the perceived monopolistic characteristics of certain companies, which can lead to higher valuations in the H-share market [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Commercial space is experiencing intensive catalysts, and investment opportunities in the industry are worth attention [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commercial Space Faces Intensive Catalysts, Focus on Industry Investment Opportunities - **Three - year Action Plan for Commercial Space**: On November 25, 2025, the National Space Administration issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the High - quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025 - 2027)", aiming to achieve high - quality development of commercial space by 2027, with significant growth in industry scale and innovation [3]. - **Establishment of the Commercial Space Department**: The National Space Administration has recently established the Commercial Space Department, which will promote the high - quality development of China's commercial space industry and benefit the entire industrial chain [4]. - **Satellite Internet of Things Business Commercial Test**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has launched a two - year commercial test of satellite Internet of Things business, marking the transition of China's satellite Internet industry to the commercial application exploration stage and bringing investment opportunities for the entire industrial chain [4]. - **Recommended Stocks**: In the rocket direction, recommended stocks include Chaojie Co., Ltd., Gaohua Technology, Zhongheng Design, etc.; in the satellite direction, recommended stocks include Shaanxi Huada, Shanghai Harbor, Shanghai Hanxun, etc. [4]. 3.2 Main Covered Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report provides earnings forecasts, valuations, and ratings for 28 companies from 2024 to 2027, including China National Building Material Group Corporation, Conch Cement, and China State Construction Engineering Corporation. Most of the investment ratings are maintained [13]. 3.3 Weekly Market Review - **Industry Index Performance**: The building and building materials industries showed certain increases this week. The building index increased by 2.43%, and the building materials index increased by 2.21%. Among them, the garden engineering index had the highest increase of 8.40% in the building sub - sectors, and the ceramic index had the highest increase of 5.60% in the building materials sub - sectors [17][19][22]. - **Stock Performance**: In the building materials industry, Hainan Ruizhe had the highest weekly increase of 22.16%, and *ST Lifang had the highest weekly decrease of 30.00%. In the building industry, Guosheng Technology had the highest weekly increase of 57.69%, and *ST Dongyi had the highest weekly decrease of 22.36% [25]. - **Infrastructure Public REITs Performance**: The average weekly increase of infrastructure public REITs was - 0.13%, the average monthly increase was - 1.23%, the average increase since the beginning of the year was 9.67%, the average 250 - day increase was 14.38%, and the average increase since IPO was 13.06% [28]. 3.4 Aggregate Data Tracking - **Real Estate Data**: It includes new construction, construction, completion, and sales area cumulative year - on - year data, land transaction data, real estate transaction data, social financing data, and infrastructure investment growth data. For example, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national real estate new construction area continued to decline [31]. - **Eight Major Construction Central Enterprises' New Contract Signing**: The report shows the quarterly new contract signing amounts and year - on - year growth rates of eight major construction central enterprises from 2022Q1 to 2025Q3 [73]. - **Special Bond Issuance**: It includes monthly and cumulative new special bond issuance amounts and replacement special bond issuance amounts from 2022 to 2025 [75][77][79][81]. 3.5 High - frequency Data Tracking - **Cement Data**: It includes national PO42.5 cement average price, East China regional cement price trend, cement - coal price difference index, cement inventory ratio, and cement production monthly year - on - year growth rate [84][85][87][91]. - **Float Glass Data**: It includes glass spot price, glass futures price, and glass inventory [91][92][96]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Data**: It includes glass daily melting volume, soda ash price, 2mm photovoltaic glass price, and photovoltaic glass inventory [98][102][99][104]. - **Glass Fiber Data**: It includes the prices of various types of glass fiber yarns and glass fiber inventory [106][109][110][116]. - **Carbon Fiber Data**: It includes carbon fiber average price, carbon fiber raw silk price, carbon fiber production, carbon fiber inventory, carbon fiber operating rate, carbon fiber gross profit margin, carbon fiber cost, and carbon fiber gross profit [113][117][120][122][124][126][129]. - **Magnesia and Alumina Prices**: It includes the ex - factory tax - included price of large - crystal electro - fused magnesia and alumina price [126][130]. - **Upstream Raw Material Prices**: It includes asphalt price, waste paper price, PVC price, HDPE price, etc. [134][137][135][139]. - **Physical Workload Data**: It includes acrylic acid price, titanium dioxide price, high - machine rental rate, and asphalt average operating rate [141][143][144][146].

Core Insights - A-shares have lower trading costs and better market liquidity compared to H-shares, with an overall premium of 20% for A-shares as indicated by the Hang Seng AH Premium Index (HSAHP) remaining above 120 [1][2] - A peculiar situation has arisen where H-shares of certain companies, such as CATL, are trading at higher prices than their A-shares, attributed to factors like limited liquidity and the preference of overseas investors for industry leaders [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The six companies experiencing H-share price premiums over A-shares include CATL, China Merchants Bank, Hengrui Medicine, Weichai Power, WuXi AppTec, and Midea Group, with others like Zijin Mining and BYD showing closer price alignment [2][3] - The phenomenon of "inverted pricing" is largely due to the smaller market capitalization of H-shares compared to A-shares, leading to relative scarcity in liquidity which drives up prices [2][3] Group 2: Investor Preferences - Foreign investors show a strong preference for industry leaders that are scarce in the international market, often leading to higher valuations for these companies in H-shares [4][5] - Companies with stable financials and established operational histories, particularly in traditional sectors like finance and energy, tend to attract more foreign investment, reflecting differing growth expectations between domestic and international investors [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - As large institutional investors gradually exit their positions, the liquidity of H-shares is expected to increase, potentially narrowing the premium of H-shares over A-shares [2][4] - The case of CATL illustrates this trend, where its H-share premium over A-shares decreased from over 30% to approximately 13% following the unlocking of shares held by certain investors [2][4]

Group 1 - The Capital Group Companies, Inc. increased its stake in Conch Cement (00914.HK) by acquiring 1,989,000 shares at an average price of HKD 23.2487 per share, totaling approximately HKD 46.242 million [1] - Following this transaction, The Capital Group's total shareholding in Conch Cement rose to 118,278,520 shares, increasing its ownership percentage from 8.95% to 9.10% [1]

Group 1 - The Capital Group Companies, Inc. increased its stake in Conch Cement (00914.HK) by acquiring 1,989,000 shares at an average price of HKD 23.2487 per share, totaling approximately HKD 46.24 million [1][2] - Following this transaction, The Capital Group's total shareholding in Conch Cement rose to 118,278,520 shares, increasing its ownership percentage from 8.95% to 9.10% [1][2]

据香港联交所最新数据显示，11月27日，The Capital Group Companies,Inc.增持海螺水泥（600585） (00914)198.9万股，每股作价23.2487港元，总金额约为4624.17万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为1.18亿 股，持股比例为9.1%。 ...

Group 1 - The Capital Group Companies, Inc. increased its stake in Conch Cement (00914) by acquiring 1.989 million shares at a price of HKD 23.2487 per share, totaling approximately HKD 46.2417 million [1] - Following the acquisition, The Capital Group's total shareholding in Conch Cement reached approximately 118 million shares, representing a 9.1% ownership stake [1]

Market Overview - The cement sector increased by 0.31% on December 1, with Fujian Cement leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914.01, up 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13146.72, up 1.25% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Fujian Cement (600802) closed at 7.92, up 5.74% with a trading volume of 1.0263 million shares and a transaction value of 823 million [1] - Other notable performers include: - Tapai Group (002233) at 9.05, up 5.60% [1] - Hongzhi Fertilizer (002596) at 6.69, up 5.52% [1] - Shangfeng Cement (000672) at 10.96, up 1.76% [1] - Conversely, some stocks experienced declines, such as: - Conch Cement (600585) at 22.75, down 0.44% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The cement sector saw a net outflow of 229 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 152 million [2] - Notable capital flows for specific stocks include: - Conch Cement had a net inflow of 1.18 billion from institutional investors [3] - Fujian Cement experienced a net inflow of 33.09 million from institutional investors [3] - Tapai Group had a net inflow of 32.74 million from institutional investors [3]

Summary of Earnings Estimates for China Commodities Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China commodities** sector, specifically covering various sub-sectors including steel, coal, cement, aluminum, copper, gold, EV metals, paper, and agriculture. Key Points in Earnings Estimates Revisions - **General Update**: Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed to reflect mark-to-market price changes for Q3 2025 and the current quarter. Target price changes range from -5% to +5%, with investment ratings remaining unchanged. The changes are not viewed as material, and the overall investment thesis remains intact [1][2]. Steel Sector - **Baosteel and Maanshan-H/A**: Earnings estimates cut by 3% to 5%. Loss estimates for Angang-H/A increased by 4% for 2025E [9]. Coal Sector - **Shenhua-H/A, Yankuang-H/A, Chinacoal-H/A**: Earnings estimates updated by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on recent coal price trends. Chinacoal-H/A target price adjusted to HK$6.5 from HK$6.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Cement Sector - **CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, CRBMT**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +3% for 2025-27E, reflecting recent unit gross profit trends [9]. Aluminum Sector - **Chalco-H/A and Hongqiao**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market aluminum and alumina prices. Hongqiao target price fine-tuned to HK$20.0 from HK$19.6, maintaining a Neutral rating [9]. Base Metals (Copper and Gold) - **Zijin-H/A, JXC-H/A, CMOC-H/A, MMG, Zhaojin**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market prices of copper and other metals [9]. EV Metals - **Huayou and GEM**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market nickel/cobalt prices and cathode spreads. Huayou's target price fine-tuned to Rmb32.6 from Rmb32.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Paper Sector - **ND Paper and Sun Paper**: Earnings estimates updated by 0% to 2% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market paper prices [10]. Agriculture Sector - **Hog and Feed Coverage**: Earnings estimates revised by -5% to +3% for companies like Wens, New Hope, Haid, and Dabeinong, incorporating mark-to-market hog and feed prices. For animal health and conventional seeds, estimates revised by -5% to -2% [10][13]. Target Price Methodologies and Risks - **Cement Companies**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include weaker-than-expected construction demand and slower unauthorized cement capacity exit [14]. - **Base Metals**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include lower commodity prices and operational risks [14]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering these estimates as part of a broader investment decision-making process, highlighting potential conflicts of interest due to Goldman Sachs' business relationships with covered companies [3]. This summary encapsulates the key updates and insights from the earnings estimates for the China commodities sector, providing a comprehensive overview of the changes and their implications for investors.