证券代码：600585 证券简称：海螺水泥 公告编号：临 2025-12 安徽海螺水泥股份有限公司 Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited 关于召开 2024 年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： （二）会议召开地点：上交所上证路演中心（http://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） （三）会议召开方式：上证路演中心视频直播和网络互动 会议问题征集：投资者可于 2025 年 4 月 8 日（星期二）至 4 月 14 日（星期 一）16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过公司邮箱 dms@chinaconch.com 进行提问。公司将在说明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题进行回 答。 安徽海螺水泥股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2025 年 3 月 24 日收市 后在上海证券交易所（以下简称"上交所"）网站发布公司 2024 年度报告，在香港 联合交易所有限公司及本公司网站发布 2024 年度业绩公告。为便于广大投 ...

开支与产能建设情况：2024 年公司资本性支出 156.19 亿元，全年增加熟料产能230 万吨（海外），通 过迁建等方式新增水泥产能800 万吨，新增骨料产能1,450 万吨、商混产能1,210 万方、光储发电装机容 量103 兆瓦。截至2024 年底，公司拥有熟料产能2.74亿吨，水泥产能4.03 亿吨，骨料产能1.63 亿吨，在 运行商混产能5,190 万方，在运行光储发电装机容量645 兆瓦。此外，2025 年，公司计划资本性支出 119.8 亿元，预计全年新增骨料产能1,960 万吨、商品混凝土产能 2,780 万立方米。基于此，我们判断， 2025年公司开支放缓，现金流也有望得到进一步改善。 全年展望：需求承压，但是供给助力，价格或仍有一定弹性。在需求承压背景下，今年节后价格表现略 超预期，长三角市场节后水泥提价2 轮落地；核心供给端还是来自协同错峰到位，龙头企业当下对价格 意愿更强，协同意愿更高。展望全年，需求虽整体承压，但是超产和协同强约束下，价格和盈利中枢或 存一定改善空间。同时，考虑到24 年同期盈利基数较低叠加当前低煤价支撑，期待25Q2 公司能释放更 高业绩增速。 预计2025-202 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨海螺水泥（600585.SH） [Table_Title] 2025 年期待供给释放边际弹性 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司披露 2024 年报：全年营业收入 910.3 亿元，同比减少 35.51%；归母净利润 76.96 亿元， 同比减少 26.19%；24Q4 归母净利润 24.98 亿元，同比增长 42.27%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490516040002 SFC：BQK473 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 范超 李金宝 %% %% 1 海螺水泥（600585.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 2025 年期待供给释放边际弹性 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司披露 2024 年报：全年营业收入 910.3 亿元，同比减少 35.51%；归母净利润 76.96 亿元， 同比减少 26.19%；24Q4 归母净利润 24.98 亿元，同比增长 42.27%。 事件评论 ⚫ 预计 2025-2026 年业绩 92、101 亿元，对应 ...

提价带动归母净利回升，分红比例维持稳定 目标价：27.36 元 公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 海螺水泥（600585）2024 年报点评 推荐（维持） 事项： 公司发布 2024 年业绩报告，实现营收 910.30 亿元，同比下降 35.51%；归母净 利润为 76.96 亿元，同比下降 26.19%；扣非归母净利润为 73.65 亿元，同比下 降 26.06%。 评论： 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，成本上涨超预期等。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 91,030 | 92,967 | 94,204 | 96,073 | | 同比增速(%) | -35.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 7,696 | 9,666 | 11,175 | 12,126 | | 同比增速(%) | -26.2% | 25.6% | 15.6% | 8.5% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.45 ...

2025 年 4 月 6 日 公司研究 24 年盈利底部或已明确，25 年公司利润有望回升 ——海螺水泥（600585.SH/0914.HK）2024 年年报点评报告 A 股：买入（维持） 当前价：24.16 元 H 股：买入（维持） 当前价：22.2 港元 作者 分析师：孙伟风 执业证书编号：S0930516110003 021-52523822 sunwf@ebscn.com 分析师：陈奇凡 执业证书编号：S0930523050002 021-52523819 chenqf@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 52.99 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 1280.31 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 19.53/28.75 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 17.10% | 股价相对走势 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 03/24 06/24 09/24 12/24 03/25 海螺水泥 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | 4. ...

公司公布2024 年报。2024 年，公司实现收入910.30 亿元，同比-35.51%，归母净利润76.96 亿元，同 比-26.19%；对应Q4 实现收入228.79 亿元，同比-45.47%，归母净利润24.98 亿元，同比+42.08%。 2024 水泥供需整体承压，Q4 水泥格局好转价格上行。公司业绩略低于预期。2024 年全年，由于地产及 基建需求承压，全年水泥行业价格承压。根据披露数据测算，2024 年，公司自产自销水泥及熟料2.68亿 吨，同比-6.05%，平均售价245.7 元/吨，同比-27.7 元/吨，由于煤炭价格下行，吨成本同比下降17.9 元/ 吨至187.1 元/吨，但吨毛利同比仍下滑9.8 元/吨至58.6 元/吨。除水泥销量价格下降外，建材贸易业务收 入同比降低60%也是收入下滑原因之一。2024Q4，由于水泥价格上涨，从而使得Q4 单季度归母净利润 同比增加。 华南及西部地区表现相对较优。分区域来看，南部及西部区域收入同比下降8.64%/4.13%，是下降相对 较少的地区，判断主要因为粤港澳大湾区及西部大开发重点建设工程对需求产生较好支撑作用。 分红率总体保持平稳。2024 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in cement prices in the eastern region, which is anticipated to support profit growth due to improved pricing dynamics [19][24] - The company has maintained a strong financial position with a net debt ratio of -22% as of the end of 2024, indicating robust operational resilience [4] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 91,030 million in 2024, with a decline of 35.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 7,696 million, down 26.2% year-on-year [7] - For 2025, the expected earnings per share (EPS) is RMB 1.88, with a gradual increase to RMB 2.29 by 2027 [5] Market Dynamics - The eastern and central regions account for over 50% of the company's main revenue, and the recovery in these areas is crucial for profit generation [2] - The company has seen a significant increase in cement prices, with a 15% year-on-year rise in the price of PO42.5 bulk cement in the eastern region as of March 28, 2025 [24] Operational Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced capital expenditures, with planned reductions of 18% and 20% for 2023 and 2024, respectively, and a further 23% reduction planned for 2025 [4] - The company has achieved a comprehensive cost of RMB 187.25 per ton for self-produced cement clinker, which is lower than its domestic peers [61] International Expansion - The company has expanded its overseas production capacity, with 11 operational clinker production lines generating approximately 16.5 million tons annually, representing 6% of its total global capacity [3][39] - The overseas business has shown stable profitability, with a significant increase in profit from RMB 1.1 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.3 billion in 2024 [42] Aggregate Business Development - The company has increased its aggregate production capacity to 163 million tons by the end of 2024, with plans for further expansion in 2025 [48] - The aggregate business has generated revenue of RMB 4.69 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.4% [51]

Core Points - The stock price of Conch Cement (600585) closed at 24.6 yuan, down 1.28% from the previous week, with a total market capitalization of 130.36 billion yuan [1] - Conch Cement's 2024 annual report shows a main revenue of 91.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.696 billion yuan, down 26.19% [2][5] - The number of shareholders decreased by 1,729 to 219,500, a reduction of 0.78%, with an average shareholding value of 423,800 yuan [3][5] - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.71 yuan per share for 2024, with total cash dividends amounting to approximately 3.91 billion yuan, representing 50.78% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4][5] Financial Performance - Main revenue for Q4 2024 was 22.879 billion yuan, down 45.53% year-on-year, while net profit for the same quarter was 2.498 billion yuan, up 42.27% [2] - The company's debt ratio stands at 21.31%, with investment income of 297 million yuan and financial expenses of -1.171 billion yuan, resulting in a gross profit margin of 21.7% [2] Shareholder Information - As of February 28, 2025, the average number of shares held per shareholder increased from 18,100 to 18,200 [3]

Summary of Anhui Conch Cement Co. Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Anhui Conch Cement Co. Ltd - **Industry**: Cement and Clinker - **Region**: Asia Pacific Key Financial Results - **4Q24 Performance**: - Net profit of Rmb1.5 billion, representing a 42% increase YoY and a 33% increase QoQ [1] - Full year 2024 net profit of Rmb7.7 billion, down 26% YoY, below consensus estimate of Rmb8.6 billion [1] - Dividend proposed at Rmb0.71 per share, maintaining a payout ratio of 49% YoY [1] Shipment and Production Data - **Total Shipments**: - 271 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 7.5% YoY [2] - 4Q24 shipments of self-produced products at 73 million tons, down 11% YoY but up 5% QoQ [2] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: - ASP for self-produced cement and clinker was Rmb246 per ton in 2024, down 10% YoY [3] - Estimated ASP in 4Q24 at Rmb265 per ton, an increase of 8% YoY and 12% QoQ [3] Cost and Profitability - **Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)**: - Production cost rose by Rmb7 per ton QoQ despite stable coal prices [3] - **Gross Profit**: - Estimated unit gross profit in 4Q24 at Rmb75 per ton, up from Rmb55 in 4Q23 and Rmb53 in 3Q24 [3] 2025 Guidance - **Capacity Expansion**: - Targeting an addition of 19.6 million tons of cement and 27.8 million square meters of concrete capacity in 2025 [4] - **Shipments**: - Expected total shipments of self-produced cement and clinker to remain flat at 268 million tons YoY [4] - **Capital Expenditure**: - Budgeted capex of Rmb11.9 billion for 2025, down from Rmb15.6 billion in 2024 [4] Market Outlook and Risks - **Market Rating**: - Stock rating is Overweight with a price target of HK$24.50, indicating a 4% upside from the current price of HK$23.60 [6] - **Risks to Upside**: - Stronger-than-expected infrastructure demand from major projects [10] - Stricter environmental regulations leading to tighter clinker supplies [10] - **Risks to Downside**: - Weaker-than-expected property demand and potential government intervention in cement pricing [11][15] Additional Insights - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately Rmb128.273 billion [6] - **Average Daily Trading Value**: HK$152 million [6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecast**: - EPS for 2024 estimated at Rmb1.66, with projections of Rmb2.11 for 2025 [6] This summary encapsulates the critical financial metrics, operational insights, and market outlook for Anhui Conch Cement Co. Ltd, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors and stakeholders.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [3] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's profitability is expected to improve as the industry stabilizes, despite a significant decline in revenue and profit in 2024 due to a downturn in the cement market and real estate sector [3][5] - The cement industry is anticipated to experience a "bottoming out" and recovery in 2025, supported by infrastructure demand and government efforts to stabilize the real estate market [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 91.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 35.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.70 billion yuan, down 26.19% year-on-year [3][5] - The company's total cement and clinker sales volume in 2024 was 27.1 million tons, a decrease of 7.46% compared to the previous year [5] Industry Outlook - The cement industry in 2024 faced significant challenges, with a 10.6% year-on-year decline in real estate investment leading to a 9.5% drop in national cement production [5] - The report forecasts a recovery in the cement industry in 2025, driven by continued demand from infrastructure projects and stricter supply-side reforms [5][6] Growth Projections - The company is expected to focus on its core cement business and international expansion, with projected revenue growth rates of 2.48%, 7.52%, and 6.05% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6] - Estimated revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 93.29 billion yuan, 100.30 billion yuan, and 106.36 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 9.87 billion yuan, 10.73 billion yuan, and 11.02 billion yuan [6][7] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the company are projected to be 13.0, 12.0, and 11.7 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, compared to the average P/E of 14.7 for comparable companies [6][8]