国金证券股份有限公司唐执敬,李蓉近期对申能股份（600642）进行研究并发布了研究报告《上海火电龙头，优质资产赋能高分红》，首次覆盖申 能股份给予买入评级，目标价10.03元。 电力需求、煤价下行程度、电力市场化改革进展、其他非流动金融资产持有期间的投资收益不及预期等 申能股份 投资逻辑 煤价下行周期，区位优势加码火电利润弹性。销售端来看：火电资产的"区位优势"主要体现为区域供需格局和行业集中度，在市场化交易中影响 量价。①区域供需：支撑性电源供给受限而用电负荷刚性增长，预计上海本地电力供需偏紧格局将延续至26年；21年以来公司煤机利用小时数不 低于4800小时，且未来2年有望维持高位。②竞争格局：上海发电侧行业集中度高而稳定，公司/华能/上电/宝钢合计火电装机市占率达80%以上， 且互相交叉持股。电力供需偏紧+火电行业集中度较高，上海25年中长期市场化交易电价降幅小于行业平均。成本端来看：预计25年国内煤炭产 量净增约0.70~0.75亿吨，进口量小幅回落；商品煤消费需求净增量在0.5亿吨左右，供需宽松。预计全年市场煤均价在700元/吨左右，同比-156元/ 吨。测算当北港5500大卡煤价中枢分别为720/ ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 10.03 RMB based on a 12x PE for 2025 [4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from a downward trend in coal prices, which enhances the profit elasticity of its thermal power assets due to its regional advantages in Shanghai's electricity supply and demand dynamics [2][3]. - The company plans to add 8 to 10 million kilowatts of new energy capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a focus on offshore wind projects, which are crucial for achieving carbon neutrality in Shanghai [3]. - The company has a stable revenue stream from its natural gas pipeline and gas power assets, supported by a favorable pricing mechanism [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a comprehensive energy platform controlled by the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a high dividend payout ratio of nearly 50% since its listing [9][18]. 2. Power Business: Profit Elasticity and Growth in New Energy 2.1 Thermal Power: Profit Elasticity Enhanced by Coal Price Downturn - The regional supply-demand balance in Shanghai is expected to remain tight until 2026, supporting the company's thermal power profitability [2]. - The company has maintained high coal machine utilization hours, projected to remain above 4,800 hours in the next two years [2]. - The competitive landscape in Shanghai is characterized by high industry concentration, with the company and its major competitors holding over 80% of the market share [2]. 2.2 New Energy: Active Layout for Energy Transition - The company aims to accelerate the development of new energy projects, with 3.95 million kilowatts of new energy projects expected to be operational between 2025 and 2026 [3]. - Offshore wind energy is identified as a key pathway for achieving carbon neutrality in Shanghai, with significant future development potential [3]. 3. Stability: Stable Profitability from Pricing Mechanisms - The company operates the only high-pressure natural gas pipeline system in Shanghai, ensuring stable profitability from gas supply [3]. - The company has diversified its investments into nuclear power and pumped storage, contributing approximately 700 million RMB in annual investment income [3]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 29.85 billion RMB in 2025, with a net profit of 4.09 billion RMB, corresponding to an EPS of 0.84 RMB [4]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong dividend capability and willingness, with a current dividend yield of approximately 5.0%, ranking among the top in the thermal power industry [3][31].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable performance in 2024, with a reported revenue of 29.619 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.944 billion yuan, up 14.04% year-on-year. However, the first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue to 7.337 billion yuan, down 9.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.011 billion yuan, down 12.82% year-on-year [8] - The company benefits from a tight power supply-demand balance in East China, with coal-fired power generation increasing by 3.5% in 2024, reaching 416.05 billion kWh. The utilization hours for coal-fired power reached 4,953 hours, an increase of 150 hours year-on-year [8] - The company’s long-term performance is stable and predictable, with significant advantages in large-scale, low coal consumption coal-fired units located in Shanghai, which enjoys resilient electricity prices and tight supply-demand dynamics [8] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 29.164 billion yuan in 2025, 30.222 billion yuan in 2026, and 30.577 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -1.54%, 3.63%, and 1.18% respectively [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 4.066 billion yuan in 2025, 4.250 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.355 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 3.10%, 4.52%, and 2.47% respectively [7] - The company is expected to maintain a stable dividend policy, with a proposed dividend of 4.5 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, resulting in a payout ratio of 56.27% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and accelerate green low-carbon development, achieving a record net profit of 3.944 billion yuan in 2024 and 1.011 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - The company plans to solidify safety and supply foundations while improving management efficiency and developing new production capabilities [1] - The company achieved a net profit of 1.011 billion yuan in Q1 2025, maintaining stable and orderly production operations [1] Group 2: Fuel Cost Management - The company has seen a significant year-on-year decrease in fuel costs and is actively optimizing procurement strategies to increase the proportion of low-cost coal [1] Group 3: Electricity Market Participation - The company is enhancing its marketing system to actively participate in the Shanghai electricity spot market, leveraging the performance advantages of its power generation units [1] Group 4: Renewable Energy Development - The company has made progress in large-scale renewable energy development, including the Hainan CZ2 project (Phase I) with 600,000 kW connected to the grid and ongoing preparations for 3.35 million kW wind and solar projects in Xinjiang [1] - Future plans include focusing on large-scale renewable energy development and expanding into comprehensive energy services, CCUS, green hydrogen production, and biomass [1] Group 5: Dividend Policy - The company emphasizes stable and sustainable cash dividends, proposing a cash dividend of 0.45 yuan per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 55.8% and a total cash dividend of 2.2 billion yuan, marking a historical high [1]

2024年面对错综复杂的外部形势，公司积极应对困难和挑战，不 断夯实安全保供基础，加速绿色低碳发展，全力提升经营质效，持续 增强管理效能，加快发展新质生产力，圆满完成各项目标任务，全年 实现归母净利润39.44亿元，续创新高。 2025年一季度，公司继续主动有为，抓住行业机遇，克服不利因 素，生产经营保持平稳有序，重点项目开发建设取得积极进展，实现 净利润10.11亿元。 证券代码：600642 证券简称：申能股份 公告编号：2025-019 申能股份有限公司投资者交流会议纪要 时 间：2025年5月16日 地 点：申能股份有限公司会议室 交流会形式：线下调研 公司参与人员：杨波（副总裁、董事会秘书）、 周鸣（证券部 总经理、证券事务代表） 参会机构：华源证券、中信建投证券、华泰证券、申万证券、国 泰海通、长江证券、天风证券、华福证券、招商证券、华泰保险、摩 根基金、泰康资产、上银基金、兴全基金。 本次投资者交流会中，投资者重点关注的问题及公司的回答要点 如下： Q1:公司2024年及2025年一季度经营情况 申能股份有限公司 2025年5月17日 Q2：近期燃料成本变动情况 2025年以来，燃料成本继续保持 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significant growth and low valuation of the green power ETF, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the renewable energy sector [3] - The green power ETF has seen a trading turnover of 3.91% and a transaction volume of 14.43 million yuan, with an average daily transaction of 24.55 million yuan over the past week [3] - The ETF's scale has increased by 131 million yuan over the past six months, ranking first among comparable funds, while its share count has grown by 10.6 million shares in the last three months, also leading in its category [3] Group 2 - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the index tracked by the green power ETF is 18.81, which is in the 15.99% percentile over the past three years, indicating a valuation lower than 84.01% of the historical period [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 58.04% of the total, including major companies such as Yangtze Power, China Nuclear Power, and Three Gorges Energy [3] - The recent recognition of China's green certificate by the global renewable energy consumption initiative (RE100) marks a significant advancement in the country's renewable energy transition [3] Group 3 - The value of green electricity and energy storage is expected to be reassessed, with the intrinsic value of renewable energy adjusted for its volatility and enhanced by its green attributes [4] - Investors can access investment opportunities through the corresponding green power ETF linked fund (017057) [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights that Meta's capital expenditure (CapEx) for Q1 2025 has doubled to $13.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 103.90% and an upward revision of the 2025 full-year CapEx forecast to between $64 billion and $72 billion, driven by increased investments in AI and data centers [2] - Several national-level computing center projects in China are expected to be launched, with companies like Alibaba planning to invest over 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years, marking the largest investment in this sector by a private company in China [2] - The semiconductor industry is projected to continue its optimistic growth trajectory in 2025, with strong demand from data centers and consumer electronics, leading to increased orders for major companies like Nvidia and Qualcomm [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicates that Henggong Precision has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5% in revenue and 10.9% in net profit from 2018 to 2023, although a significant decline in performance is expected in 2024 due to asset impairment [4][6] - The company is leveraging its technical advantages in ductile iron materials and continuous casting processes to improve product quality and yield, positioning itself for growth in the machinery sector [4][6] - Zhejiang Dingli has reported a significant improvement in its Q1 2025 performance, with revenue of 1.898 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.72%, and a net profit of 429 million yuan, reflecting a 41.83% increase [18][30] Group 3 - The report notes that the gold industry achieved total revenue of 291.588 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 2.83%, and a significant rise in net profit by 51.56% to 12.305 billion yuan [9] - Copper supply and demand remain tight, with high production levels maintained by smelters, and the report suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Mining and China Nonferrous Mining for potential investment opportunities [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of the semiconductor sector, particularly in AI and data center applications, as a key area for growth and investment in the upcoming quarters [3][11]

事件：公司公布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年实现营业收入 296.19 亿元，同比增长 1.64%，实现归母净利润 39.44 亿元，同比增长 14.04%； 2025Q1 实现营业收入 73.37 亿元，同比降低 9.09%，实现归母净利润 10.11 亿元，同比降低 12.82%。 公司报告 | 年报点评报告 申能股份（600642） 证券研究报告 多业务板块支撑业绩，新能源装机增速有望提高 煤价快速下滑，煤电板块盈利显著修复 2024 年公司煤电板块完成控股发电量 416.05 亿千瓦时，同比增长 3.5%， 秦皇岛港 Q5500 煤炭均价约 855 元/吨，同比降低约 110 元/吨，煤价下滑 带动公司板块盈利显著改善，2024 年煤电板块实现营业收入 134.28 亿元， 同比增长 2.57%，实现毛利 20.91 亿元，同比增长 49.58%。2025Q1 煤电板 块电量承压，单季度完成控股发电量 99.02 亿千瓦时，同比降低 12.5%，但 煤价仍处于下行通道，秦皇岛港 Q5500 煤炭一季度均价约 721 元/吨，同 比降低约 181 元/吨，截至 5 月 12 日，其 ...

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 申能股份（600642） 证券研究报告 多业务板块支撑业绩，新能源装机增速有望提高 事件：公司公布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年实现营业收入 296.19 亿元，同比增长 1.64%，实现归母净利润 39.44 亿元，同比增长 14.04%； 2025Q1 实现营业收入 73.37 亿元，同比降低 9.09%，实现归母净利润 10.11 亿元，同比降低 12.82%。 煤价快速下滑，煤电板块盈利显著修复 2024 年公司煤电板块完成控股发电量 416.05 亿千瓦时，同比增长 3.5%， 秦皇岛港 Q5500 煤炭均价约 855 元/吨，同比降低约 110 元/吨，煤价下滑 带动公司板块盈利显著改善，2024 年煤电板块实现营业收入 134.28 亿元， 同比增长 2.57%，实现毛利 20.91 亿元，同比增长 49.58%。2025Q1 煤电板 块电量承压，单季度完成控股发电量 99.02 亿千瓦时，同比降低 12.5%，但 煤价仍处于下行通道，秦皇岛港 Q5500 煤炭一季度均价约 721 元/吨，同 比降低约 181 元/吨，截至 5 月 12 日，其 ...

Group 1 - The National Financial Regulatory Administration and the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced a series of financial policy measures to support market stability and expectations [1] - Central Huijin, a vice-ministerial level central enterprise, has an asset scale exceeding 10 trillion yuan after the merger of three major Asset Management Companies (AMCs) into China Investment Corporation [3] - Central Huijin's investment acumen has been validated multiple times in the market [4] Group 2 - Central Huijin has made significant investments in companies with high growth potential, including six leading firms in their respective fields [5] - The first company is Guodian Power, which has a diversified business model and is developing technology in nuclear power [5] - The second company is Gehua Cable, which operates the world's largest interactive digital TV platform and is considered a stable asset in communication infrastructure [6] - The third company is Sheneng Co., which dominates the natural gas and electricity sectors in Shanghai [7] - The fourth company is Zhongheng Group, known for its influential cardiovascular and oncology medications, with potential for valuation recovery [8] - The fifth company is Suzhou High-tech, the only A-share listed company under the Suzhou High-tech Zone government, focusing on new industry investment and urban development services [9] - The sixth company is a leading domestic industrial rigging manufacturer, with a stable market share and a large customer base across various sectors [10]