Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 71.76 CNY, based on a reasonable valuation level of 24 times the earnings for 2024 [2][5][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.46 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 15.0% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 670 million CNY, down 48.3% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.19 billion CNY, down 30.9%, and net profit was 80 million CNY, down 79.2% [1]. - The decline in industry prosperity has put pressure on the company's sales. For the first three quarters of 2024, mid-to-high-end liquor generated 3.50 billion CNY in revenue (down 16% year-on-year), while low-end liquor brought in 540 million CNY (down 23% year-on-year). In Q3, mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 900 million CNY (down 36% year-on-year) [1]. - The company's gross margin decreased to 67.9% for the first three quarters of 2024, down 7.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a shift in product mix. The sales and management expense ratios increased to 21.4% and 9.8%, respectively, reflecting a rise in expenses due to a lower revenue base [1]. - The company's key products, Shezhidao and T68, are expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies, as they are positioned below 300 CNY, which may support performance amid declining consumer spending [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share for 2024-2026 are 2.99 CNY, 3.31 CNY, and 3.80 CNY, respectively, revised down from previous estimates of 3.60 CNY, 3.81 CNY, and 4.36 CNY [2][8]. - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is 5.934 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16.2%, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [4][11]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 67.9% in 2025 and slightly improve to 68.3% in 2026 [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.46 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 15.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 669 million yuan, down 48.35% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 1.19 billion yuan, down 30.92%, with a net profit of 78.04 million yuan, down 79.23% year-on-year, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to Q2 [1]. - The company is facing significant short-term pressure due to weak demand in the white liquor market, with a focus on a "control volume and support price" strategy and enhanced marketing efforts to reduce inventory [1]. - Despite the overall growth being under pressure, certain high-end products have shown strong performance, with sales of the high-end strategic product "藏品舍得 10 年" increasing by 384% year-on-year during the National Day holiday [1]. - The company is actively maintaining investor interests by announcing a share repurchase plan of 100 to 200 million yuan, reflecting confidence in future development [1]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.46 billion yuan, with a breakdown showing mid-to-high-end liquor revenue at 3.50 billion yuan (down 15.70%) and ordinary liquor revenue at 537 million yuan (down 22.53%) [1]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 63.67%, down 10.94 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.56%, down 15.28 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s financial forecasts for 2024-2026 project net profits of 919 million yuan, 879 million yuan, and 1.12 billion yuan respectively, with a downward revision from previous estimates [2][11]. Regional Performance - Revenue from outside the province was 2.78 billion yuan, down 19.88%, while revenue from within the province was 1.26 billion yuan, down 8.61% for the first three quarters of 2024 [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [2][4][11]. Core Views - The company continues to face channel risks, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2024, showing a year-on-year decrease of 30.9% in revenue and 79.2% in net profit [2][5]. - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 100-200 million yuan for employee incentives, which is expected to boost market confidence [7][8]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its distributor structure during the downturn, with a net decrease of 46 distributors in Q3 2024 [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 4.46 billion yuan, down 15.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 669 million yuan, down 48.3% year-on-year [2][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.19 billion yuan, with a net profit of 78 million yuan [5][6]. - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor in Q3 2024 was 897 million yuan, down 35.66% year-on-year, while low-end liquor revenue was 153 million yuan, down 14.96% year-on-year [6][7]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The net profit margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 15.31 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product structure shifts and increased promotional expenses [7][8]. - The company's operating cash flow was negative 124 million yuan in Q3 2024, with sales cash receipts of 1.15 billion yuan, down 21.4% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company has increased its contract liabilities to 174 million yuan by the end of Q3 2024, reflecting a strategy to enhance cash flow during the off-peak season [7][8]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Advice - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025, expecting revenues of 5.64 billion yuan and 6.09 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 20.3% in 2024 and a growth of 8.0% in 2025 [8][9]. - The forecast for net profit in 2024 is 1.07 billion yuan, down 39.6% year-on-year, with a recovery expected in 2025 [8][9]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 21.1 for 2024 and 19.3 for 2025, maintaining a "Neutral" rating due to ongoing pressures in the liquor industry [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.46 billion RMB for Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 670 million RMB, down 48.4% year-on-year [2]. - The revenue for Q3 2024 was 1.19 billion RMB, reflecting a 30.9% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 80 million RMB, a significant drop of 79.2% year-on-year [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing marketing expenses and improving cost efficiency despite the pressure from declining industry demand [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For Q3 2024, the revenue breakdown shows high-end and regular liquor sales at 900 million and 150 million RMB respectively, with declines of 35.6% and 14.9% year-on-year [3]. - The company experienced a reduction in the number of distributors, with a net decrease of 46, leaving 2,763 distributors at the end of Q3 [3]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 11 percentage points to 63.7% due to structural weakening and cost pressures [3]. Financial Analysis - The report forecasts a 38% reduction in net profit for 2024, with expected revenues decreasing by 19.3% [4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 2.78 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 24.6, 21.6, and 18.9 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]. - The company plans to repurchase 100 to 200 million RMB worth of shares for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives [3]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that despite current challenges, there may be a potential recovery in business demand in 2025, indicating a need for continued monitoring of the company's performance [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company has faced pressure on performance due to sales collection challenges, with total revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 at 4.46 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.97% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 669 million yuan, down 48.35% year-on-year [1] - The company announced a share repurchase plan, reflecting confidence in its future performance, with plans to repurchase 1.099 to 2.197 million shares, accounting for 0.33%-0.66% of total share capital, at a maximum price of 91.00 yuan per share [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 4.46 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.97% year-on-year, and a net profit of 669 million yuan, down 48.35% year-on-year. The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 was 67.90%, down 7.38 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, total revenue was 1.189 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.72% year-on-year, with a net profit of 78 million yuan, down 79.22% year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company's liquor revenue was 4.035 billion yuan, down 16.68% year-on-year, with mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor revenues at 3.498 billion yuan and 537 million yuan, respectively [1] - The company’s revenue from provincial and non-provincial sales for Q1-Q3 was 1.256 billion yuan and 2.779 billion yuan, respectively, with provincial sales accounting for 31.13% of total revenue, showing an increase in provincial revenue share [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from growth in its mid-range and high-end products, with a long-term positive outlook on brand strength in the sub-high-end market. The EPS forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 2.83, 3.83, and 4.83 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 18, and 14 times [3][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 446 million and a net profit of 67 million for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.0% and 48.3% respectively. In Q3 alone, the revenue and net profit were 119 million and 8 million, showing a year-on-year decrease of 30.9% and 79.2% [2] - The revenue decline in Q3 was in line with expectations, as the company continued its strategy of controlling volume and stabilizing prices for its mid-to-high-end products, leading to pressure on revenue and profit margins [3] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 100 to 200 million yuan to boost employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives, with a maximum repurchase price of 91 yuan per share. This move is seen as a sign of confidence in the company's long-term strategy [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024E, the total revenue is projected to be 5,818 million yuan, down 17.83% year-on-year, with a net profit of 918.15 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 48.17% [1][4] - The Q3 gross profit margin decreased by 10.9 percentage points to 63.7%, primarily due to the impact of product structure adjustments [4] - The company maintained a stable cash flow with a cash collection ratio of 0.96 in Q3, and the number of distributors remained stable at 2,763 [4] Strategic Initiatives - The new president, who took office at the end of 2023, is expected to leverage modern management experience in the consumer goods sector to enhance the company's strategic planning and top-level understanding [5] - The company aims to strengthen its market share in banquet services through digital means and expand its reach into lower-tier markets [5] Valuation Metrics - The current market capitalization corresponds to a P/E ratio of 24.73 for 2024E, 21.98 for 2025E, and 19.15 for 2026E [1][5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E is 2.76 yuan, significantly lower than previous estimates [1][5]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating for Shede Liquor (600702) to "Recommended" with a target price of 78 CNY, compared to the current price of 68.16 CNY [1][2]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue at 4.46 billion CNY, down 15.0% year-on-year, and net profit at 670 million CNY, down 48.4% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw revenue of 1.19 billion CNY, down 30.9%, and net profit of 80 million CNY, down 79.2% [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company is undergoing a rapid inventory clearance process, with a focus on reducing stock levels and adjusting sales strategies. The company is expected to continue this trend into the fourth quarter, with potential for inventory reduction if demand improves in the following year [2][3]. - The report notes that the company's gross profit margin for Q3 was 63.7%, a significant drop of 11.0 percentage points, attributed to accelerated inventory clearance and increased promotional expenses [2][3]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the total revenue is projected at 7.08 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.9%. However, for 2024, revenue is expected to decline by 19.2% to 5.72 billion CNY [1][2]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1.77 billion CNY, with a projected decline of 52.9% to 835 million CNY in 2024. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be 2.50 CNY [1][2]. - The report indicates that the company's cash flow remains under pressure, with a net cash flow from operating activities of -120 million CNY in Q3, compared to -60 million CNY in the same period last year [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term revenue pressure due to adjustments in inventory management, particularly in the mid-to-high-end liquor segment, which saw a revenue decline of 35.6% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [4][5] - Despite the short-term challenges, the company is focusing on its core products and has a long-term growth strategy, which supports the maintained "Recommendation" rating [7] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 44.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.0%, with a net profit of 6.7 billion yuan, down 48.3% [3] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 11.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.78 billion yuan, down 79.2% [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 63.7%, a decline of 10.8 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by product mix [4] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 100 to 200 million yuan, reflecting confidence in its long-term strategy [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with expected revenues of 57.43 billion yuan in 2024, 60.31 billion yuan in 2025, and 66.46 billion yuan in 2026 [6] - Net profit forecasts have also been revised to 933 million yuan for 2024, 984 million yuan for 2025, and 1.085 billion yuan for 2026 [6] Key Financial Ratios - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline to 11.8% in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 11.6% by 2026 [10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 24.3 in 2024, decreasing to 20.9 by 2026 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to 79.07 CNY from the previous 68.02 CNY [3][5][12] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 was below expectations, primarily due to the white liquor industry's transition into a destocking phase, indicating a continuation of the adjustment period [2][12] - Despite the current adjustment, the report suggests that the company's earnings recovery is likely as the economic cycle improves, given that white liquor is a cyclical consumer product [2][12] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to generate revenues of 5,763 million CNY, a decrease of 18.6% compared to the previous year, with net profit projected at 979 million CNY, down 44.7% [4][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 2.94 CNY, 3.13 CNY, and 3.44 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 3.78 CNY, 4.17 CNY, and 4.56 CNY [3][12] - The company's net profit margin for Q3 2024 fell to 6.56%, a decline of 15.31 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting increased expenses during the destocking phase [4][12][13] Market Performance - The company's stock price has fluctuated between 40.18 CNY and 116.24 CNY over the past 52 weeks, with a current price of 68.16 CNY [6] - The total market capitalization is reported at 22,709 million CNY [6] Operational Insights - The company experienced significant revenue declines in Q3 2024, with domestic and international revenues down 22% and 38% year-on-year, respectively [12] - The report highlights that the company is increasing its marketing expenses to support consumer engagement during the destocking phase, which has impacted profitability [12][13]

证券代码：600702 证券简称：舍得酒业 公告编号：2024-039 舍得酒业股份有限公司 2024 年前三季度经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号—行业信息披露》之《第 十二号—酒制造》的相关规定，现将公司 2024 年前三季度主要经营数据（未经审 计）公告如下： 一、公司 2024 年前三季度主要经营情况 （一）酒类产品按产品档次分类情况 （二）酒类产品按销售渠道分类情况 （三）酒类产品按地区分类情况 1 单位：万元 币种：人民币 产品名称 2024 年 1－9 月销售收入 2023 年 1－9 月销售收入 增减变动幅度（%） 中高档酒 349,824.54 414,989.27 -15.70 普通酒 53,707.60 69,324.75 -22.53 合计 403,532.14 484,314.02 -16.68 单位：万元 币种：人民币 渠道类型 2024 年 1－9 月销售收入 2023 年 1－9 月销售收入 增减变动幅度（%） 批发代 ...