Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry, particularly for high-quality companies, indicating a strategic allocation period has begun [2][7]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant decline in performance, with major companies like Wuliangye reporting substantial drops in revenue and net profit. The public fund holdings in the food and beverage sector have also decreased to levels not seen since Q1 2017 [2][7]. - Despite the current challenges, the report suggests that long-term investors can start pricing high-quality companies as the market is expected to reach a predictable bottom in the near future [2][7]. - Key recommendations include focusing on premium liquor brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye, while also keeping an eye on brands like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu [2][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Analysis - The liquor industry reported a total revenue of CNY 310.28 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.48%, with net profit falling by 6.63% to CNY 122.69 billion. The revenue decline is more pronounced in lower-tier brands compared to national brands [3][16]. - In Q3 2025, the industry generated CNY 76.31 billion in revenue, down 18.4% year-on-year, with net profit dropping 22.0% to CNY 28.21 billion. National brands outperformed lower-tier brands in both revenue and profit growth [3][19]. - The net profit margin for the liquor industry in Q3 2025 was 38.0%, a decline of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to decreased gross margins and increased tax rates [3][20]. 2. Valuation Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the absolute PE level for the liquor sector stands at 18.7x, below the historical average of 27.6x since 2011. The relative PE ratio compared to the Shanghai Composite Index is 1.14x, also below the historical average of 2.01x [4][10]. - The report indicates that the current valuations of leading companies reflect market expectations of mid-term demand pressure. If demand improves, the industry could return to a phase of simultaneous valuation and performance recovery [4][10]. 3. Company Performance and Profitability Forecast - The report highlights that the profitability of the liquor industry is under pressure, with significant declines in net profit margins across various brands. The national brands have seen a smaller decline compared to lower-tier brands [3][22]. - The report provides a detailed forecast of operational goals and profitability estimates for key liquor companies, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments in response to market conditions [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a year-to-date decline of 7.12% and a recent increase of 2.93% over the last five trading days, indicating volatility in market performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shede Liquor reported a revenue of 3.702 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 17.00%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 472 million yuan, down 29.43% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 2.29 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.353 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [2]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shede Liquor decreased by 11.81% to 114,400, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 13.39% to 2,908 shares [2]. - Major shareholders include the China Securities Index White Wine Index A and the Wine ETF, with significant holdings remaining stable or increasing [2]. Market Activity - On November 4, Shede Liquor's stock fell by 2.03%, trading at 60.84 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 20.245 billion yuan [1]. - The stock saw a net outflow of 23.17 million yuan in principal funds, with large orders showing a higher selling volume compared to buying [1]. Business Overview - Shede Liquor, established on November 9, 1996, and listed on May 24, 1996, primarily engages in the manufacturing and sales of liquor, with 89.52% of its revenue coming from alcoholic beverages, including 73.05% from mid-to-high-end liquor [1]. - The company operates within the food and beverage industry, specifically in the liquor sector, and is associated with concepts such as new retail and C2M [1].

Core Insights - The article highlights the innovative approach of Shede Liquor in launching its new low-alcohol product, Shede Zizai, through a lively and immersive event, breaking away from traditional serious white liquor product launches [1][2][4]. Product Launch and Market Strategy - Shede Zizai, a 29-degree low-alcohol liquor priced at 329 yuan per bottle, was launched on August 30, 2023, and has been well-received for its high quality-to-price ratio, appealing to new consumer demands [2][5]. - The product achieved significant online sales, with over 12,000 orders within 36 hours of its launch on JD.com, indicating strong market interest [2]. - The offline promotion event in Chengdu marks the beginning of Shede Zizai's national rollout, aiming to tap into new consumer markets and establish a model market [2][3]. Market Potential and Consumer Engagement - Chengdu was chosen for the launch due to its robust economy, with a GDP exceeding 2 trillion yuan and a population over 20 million, making it a fertile ground for new consumption trends [3]. - The event utilized a live house setting to create a relaxed atmosphere, incorporating elements like rap and dance to engage consumers and redefine traditional white liquor consumption scenarios [4][6]. New Consumption Trends - Shede Zizai aligns with the trend of low-alcohol beverages, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards lighter, more enjoyable drinking experiences [5][8]. - The product promotes a new consumption philosophy focused on personal enjoyment and relaxed social interactions, moving away from traditional social pressures associated with liquor consumption [5][6]. Sales and Distribution Model - The company advocates for a non-pressuring sales model that emphasizes simplicity and timely delivery, aiming to create a supportive environment for distributors [7]. - This approach is designed to foster a collaborative ecosystem that benefits both the company and its partners, encouraging the exploration of new consumption scenarios [7][8]. Industry Impact - The launch of Shede Zizai represents a significant step in the white liquor industry, showcasing a commitment to innovation and adaptation to changing consumer behaviors [8]. - The initiative is seen as a pioneering example for the industry, potentially leading to a broader transformation in how white liquor is perceived and consumed in China [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant target price increases for certain companies, with notable recommendations and downgrades from brokerage firms, indicating potential investment opportunities and shifts in market sentiment [1] Group 1: Target Price Increases - Yifang Bio has the highest target price increase at 84.37%, followed by Tianci Materials at 68.07% and China National Aviation at 66.50%, all belonging to the chemical pharmaceuticals, battery, and aviation airport industries respectively [1] - A total of 100 target price adjustments were made by brokerages on November 3, reflecting active market engagement [1] Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - Zhongji Xuchuang received the most recommendations with 4 brokerage firms endorsing it, while Xugong Machinery and Zhou Daxing each received 3 recommendations [1] - The report indicates a competitive landscape among companies as brokerages actively promote certain stocks [1] Group 3: Rating Downgrades - Four companies experienced rating downgrades, including Kuaizi Jiao and Shede Liquor, which were downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold" by CITIC Securities, and Kede CNC, which was also downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold" by Donghai Securities [1] - These downgrades suggest a cautious outlook on these companies from the brokerage perspective [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing a severe downturn, characterized by plummeting sales, rising inventory, and a significant shift in consumer behavior, leading to widespread closures of traditional liquor stores and a crisis among liquor companies [1][3][5]. Industry Overview - The number of liquor stores in China is projected to decrease by 17% to 22% in 2025, with some regions experiencing closure rates exceeding 30% [3]. - The average inventory turnover days for the liquor industry reached 900 days in the first half of 2025, a 10% increase from the previous year, indicating a severe liquidity issue for distributors [3]. - Price inversion is prevalent across all price segments, with 32% of high-end liquor priced below cost, leading to minimal profit margins for retailers [3]. Sales and Revenue Trends - In June 2025, sales dropped by 70% due to new alcohol restrictions, with traditional stores struggling to maintain revenue during peak seasons [5]. - Over 90% of liquor companies reported revenue declines in the third quarter of 2025, with notable drops in companies like Shede and Yingjia, which saw revenue decreases of 17% and 18.09% respectively [5][7]. - The overall revenue of 20 listed liquor companies in A-shares fell by 0.86% in the first half of 2025, marking a significant shift in the industry [5]. Consumer Behavior Changes - The proportion of drinkers in China has decreased from 38% in 2016 to 29% in 2024, with a notable decline in the core consumer group of men aged 30-60 [8]. - Younger consumers are increasingly turning to alternatives like beer and cocktails, with white liquor's market share among young people dropping to 31.8% [8][10]. - Traditional consumption scenarios, such as government and business events, have drastically reduced, leading to a shift towards more casual drinking occasions [8][10]. Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is experiencing a crisis of overcapacity, with production declining from a peak of 13.58 million kiloliters in 2016 to 4.145 million kiloliters in 2024 [7]. - The stock market for liquor has also suffered, with the China Securities White Liquor Index halving over four years, and significant drops in stock prices for major companies like Yanghe and Jiu Gui [7]. Strategic Responses - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's reclassification of liquor as a historical classic industry aims to provide policy support, but the industry faces challenges from high inventory and changing consumer preferences [10][11]. - There is a debate within the industry about whether to adapt to younger consumers by introducing lower-alcohol products or to maintain traditional practices and cultural heritage [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company will hold a performance briefing on November 12, 2025, to discuss its third-quarter results and address investor questions [2][3]. Group 1: Meeting Details - The performance briefing is scheduled for November 12, 2025, from 15:00 to 16:00 [4]. - The location of the meeting is the Shanghai Stock Exchange Roadshow Center, and it will be conducted via online text interaction [4]. - Participants in the briefing will include the Chairman, President, Independent Director, Chief Financial Officer, and Secretary of the Board [4]. Group 2: Investor Participation - Investors can participate in the briefing by logging into the Shanghai Stock Exchange Roadshow Center on the scheduled date [5]. - Questions can be submitted from November 5 to November 11, 2025, through the Roadshow Center's website or via the company's email [5]. Group 3: Contact Information - Contact persons for inquiries are Zhou Jian and Cao Yuting, with a provided phone number for further assistance [6]. - The company’s email for investor questions is also provided [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [7][55]. Core Views - The liquor sector is experiencing a significant performance decline, with most companies entering a rapid clearing phase, except for Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, which still show slight growth. The impact of alcohol prohibition policies has led to a decrease in high-end and sub-high-end consumption, resulting in downward price adjustments and increased promotional activities, compressing profit margins across the industry. Despite these challenges, leading companies demonstrate strong risk resistance, with a consensus on inventory reduction and a focus on long-term value stocks such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [5][53][55]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Jiangsu Wine Association aims for revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan by 2030. Sales of liquor on e-commerce platforms have increased by over 50% since the start of the Double 11 shopping festival. Hebei province reported a more than 10% decline in liquor production from January to September [4][16]. Company News - Guizhou Moutai opened its first cultural experience center in Anhui. Wuliangye reported revenue of 60.945 billion yuan for the first nine months. Luzhou Laojiao launched a new zodiac wine for the Year of the Horse and achieved revenue of 23.127 billion yuan [4][17]. Liquor Sector Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, with a focus on inventory reduction and maintaining profitability. The report suggests monitoring high-dividend leaders and flexible stocks that have undergone prior adjustments [5][53]. Consumer Goods and New Consumption - The seasoning sector is under pressure due to restaurant demand but benefits from improved raw material costs. The frozen food sector is facing challenges due to weak demand in restaurants and baking, while the snack food sector is experiencing slower store opening speeds. The beverage sector remains strong, with new consumption opportunities emerging [6][54][55]. Key Company and Profit Forecasts - The report provides a detailed forecast for various companies, indicating a buy rating for several key players, including Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, and Guizhou Moutai, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the coming years [9][56].

会议召开时间：2025 年 11 月 12 日（星期三）15:00-16:00 会议召开地点：上海证券交易所上证路演中心（https://roadshow.ssein fo.com/） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络文字互动 证券代码：600702 证券简称：舍得酒业 公告编号：2025-051 舍得酒业股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 三、参加人员 投资者可于 2025 年 11 月 5 日（星期三）至 11 月 11 日（星期二）16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过公司证券事务部邮 箱（tpzqb@tuopai.biz）进行提问。公司将在说明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题 进行回答。 舍得酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2025 年 10 月 30 日发布《舍 得酒业 2025 年第三季度报告》，为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司 2025 年 第三季度经营成果、财务状况，公司计划于2025年1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue, with Q3 2025 revenue at 1 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 30 million yuan, down 63.2% year-on-year. The revenue decline was greater than expected, attributed mainly to external environmental factors [6] - The company is actively managing channel inventory and has adjusted its resource distribution, linking to new channels and enhancing cost control, indicating potential for recovery as the external environment improves [6] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 500 million yuan, 620 million yuan, and 830 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 43.3%, 24.1%, and 35.6% respectively [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.0%, and a net profit of 470 million yuan, down 29.4% year-on-year [6] - The Q3 revenue breakdown shows mid-to-high-end liquor revenue at 690 million yuan (down 23% year-on-year) and ordinary liquor revenue at 180 million yuan (up 18% year-on-year) [7] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 62.1%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 2.9%, down 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [9] Cash Flow and Debt Management - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had a contract liability balance of 110 million yuan, down 40 million yuan from the previous quarter, indicating significant cash flow pressure [8] - Sales cash receipts for Q3 were 920 million yuan, down 19.4% year-on-year, reflecting the challenges faced by distributors in collecting payments [8] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 41.7 for 2025, 33.6 for 2026, and 24.8 for 2027 [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.49 yuan, 1.85 yuan, and 2.51 yuan respectively [11]

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's Q3 2025 report shows a revenue of 3.702 billion yuan, with a net profit of 472 million yuan, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the first half of the year despite significant industry pressure [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The overall liquor industry is under significant pressure, with weak demand in key consumption scenarios such as business banquets and holiday sales, leading to high social inventory and downward pricing pressure [1][2] - The industry is undergoing a deep adjustment characterized by "supply clearing," shifting from scale expansion to value enhancement [2] Group 2: Company Strategies - Shede Liquor is implementing a strategy of price control and inventory reduction, maintaining stable pricing for core products despite industry-wide pricing pressures [2][3] - The company is enhancing operational efficiency through organizational restructuring, flat management, and cost control, resulting in an 8.81% decrease in operating costs and a 13.07% reduction in management expenses [3] Group 3: Product and Market Development - The launch of the low-alcohol product "Shede Zizai" has been successful, aligning with new consumption trends and achieving significant market interest [4] - E-commerce sales have grown significantly, with a 40% year-on-year increase, becoming a key driver of revenue growth [5] Group 4: Financial Performance and Market Sentiment - The company reported a 16.46% increase in ordinary liquor sales, contributing to a stable market presence during industry adjustments [5] - Institutional investors have shown increased confidence, with several funds significantly raising their holdings in Shede Liquor, indicating recognition of the company's long-term growth potential [6][7]