Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 91 CNY per share [4][12]. Core Views - The company is experiencing significant pressure on its performance, with Q3 2024 revenue and net profit down by 30.92% and 79.23% year-on-year, respectively [1]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and controlling product distribution, particularly in the mid-to-high-end liquor segment [1]. - The company plans to initiate a share buyback program, amounting to 1-2 billion CNY, representing 0.33%-0.66% of its shares [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 1.189 billion CNY, with a net profit of 78 million CNY and a non-recurring net profit of 75 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 30.92%, 79.23%, and 79.13%, respectively [1]. - The gross margin decreased by 10.97 percentage points to 63.66%, and the net margin fell by 15.59 percentage points to 6.34% due to a shift in product structure [2]. - The company reported a negative operating cash flow of 124 million CNY in Q3 2024, marking a year-on-year increase in losses of 108.78% [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects to continue adjustments in Q4 2024, preparing for a more favorable performance in 2025, with projected revenues of 5.636 billion CNY, 5.873 billion CNY, and 6.384 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][3]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024 is 951 million CNY, with expected growth of 9% and 16% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][3]. Sales Performance - Q3 2024 sales revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 897 million CNY, down 35.66% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 153 million CNY, down 14.96% [1]. - The company's sales revenue from domestic and foreign markets in Q3 2024 was 347 million CNY and 703 million CNY, respectively, with declines of 21.59% and 37.87% year-on-year [1]. Cost and Expense Management - The company has adopted a cautious approach to expense management, with the sales expense ratio increasing by 3.38 percentage points to 24.84% in Q3 2024 [2]. - The management expense ratio decreased slightly by 0.46 percentage points to 12.31% [2].

证券代码：600702 证券简称：舍得酒业 公告编号：2024-042 舍得酒业股份有限公司 关于获得回购股份融资支持的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 二、《贷款承诺函》的具体内容 2024 年 11 月 1 日，公司收到中国银行四川省分行出具的《贷款承诺函》，中国 银行四川省分行同意为公司回购股票提供贷款支持。本承诺函的具体内容如下： （一）本承诺函的承诺贷款金额为：最高不超过 1.4 亿元人民币。 （二）本承诺函的承诺贷款期限为：1 年。 1 （三）该笔贷款的有权批准机构为：中国银行股份有限公司四川省分行。 （四）本承诺函有效期自签发之日起为 1 年。 三、对公司的影响 2024 年 11 月 1 日，舍得酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司""舍得酒业"） 收到中国银行股份有限公司四川省分行（以下简称"中国银行四川省分行"）出具 的《贷款承诺函》，中国银行四川省分行同意为公司回购股票提供最高不超过 1.4 亿元人民币的贷款支持。 一、回购股份的基本情况 2024 年 10 月 28 日， ...

证券代码：600702 证券简称：舍得酒业 公告编号：2024-041 一、 回购股份的基本情况 2024 年 10 月 28 日，舍得酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司""舍得酒业"） 召开第十一届董事会第九次会议审议通过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司 股份方案的议案》，同意公司以自有资金和/或自筹资金通过集中竞价交易方式回 购公司股份，用于实施员工持股计划或股权激励。本次回购的资金总额不低于人 民币 10,000 万元（含）且不超过人民币 20,000 万元（含），回购价格不超过人民 币 91.00 元/股（含），回购期限为自公司董事会审议通过本次回购股份方案之日 起不超过 6 个月。具体内容详见公司于 2024 年 10 月 29 日在上海证券交易所网站 （www.sse.com.cn）披露的《舍得酒业关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份方 案的公告》（公告编号：2024-038）。 二、 回购股份的进展情况 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 7 号--回购股份》等相关规定，在回购股份期间，公司应当在每个月的前 3 个交易 日内公告截至上月末的回购进展情况。现将公司回购 ...

舍得酒业股份有限公司 关于回购股份事项前十大股东和 前十大无限售条件股东持股情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 舍得酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 10 月 28 日召开了第十 一届董事会第九次会议，审议通过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份方案的 议案》，具体内容详见公司于 2024 年 10 月 29 日在上海证券交易所网站 （www.sse.com.cn）披露的《舍得酒业关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份方案的 公告》（公告编号：2024-038）。 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 7 号 ——回购股份》等相关规定，现将公司董事会公告回购股份决议的前一个交易日（即 2024 年 10 月 28 日）登记在册的前十大股东和前十大无限售条件股东的名称及持股数 量、持股比例情况公告如下： 证券代码：600702 证券简称：舍得酒业 公告编号：2024-040 一、前十大股东持股情况 | 8 | 全国社保基金一一七组合 | 1,907,597 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.46 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 669 million yuan, down 48.4% year-on-year [5] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth up to 200 million yuan to enhance investor confidence and support stock value recovery [5][6] - The overall demand is under pressure, but online sales showed relative strength, with e-commerce channel revenue increasing by 39.1% year-on-year [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.189 billion yuan, a decline of 30.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 78 million yuan, down 79.2% year-on-year [5] - The company's gross margin decreased by 10.9 percentage points year-on-year to 63.7% in Q3 2024, continuing the downward trend observed in the first half of the year [6] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 6.6%, a decrease of 15.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from the liquor business in Q3 2024 was 1.050 billion yuan, down 33.3% year-on-year [5] - Sales revenue for mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor in Q3 2024 was 897 million yuan and 153 million yuan, respectively, reflecting declines of 35.7% and 15.0% year-on-year [5] - Sales revenue from wholesale and agency channels decreased by 35.5% to 984 million yuan, while e-commerce channel revenue increased by 39.1% to 66 million yuan [5] Future Outlook - The company expects EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 2.75 yuan, 2.98 yuan, and 3.50 yuan, respectively [7] - The estimated reasonable value range for the stock is between 68.79 yuan and 82.55 yuan based on a PE ratio of 25-30 times for 2024 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) as of October 30, 2024 [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the pressure on the company is accelerating, and there is a focus on potential bottom reversal opportunities. The company is actively adjusting to release inventory pressure, although profitability remains under pressure [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved revenue of 9.0 million for high-end liquor and 1.5 million for ordinary liquor, representing year-on-year declines of 35.7% and 15.0%, respectively. The decline in high-end liquor is primarily due to weak business demand, particularly affecting the mid-to-high-end segment [2]. - The company reported a contract liability balance of 0.1 billion at the end of Q3, with sales receipts of 11.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%, which aligns closely with revenue performance [3]. - The gross margin decreased by 11.0 percentage points year-on-year in Q3, while the net profit margin fell by 15.3 percentage points to 6.6%. The company anticipates a net profit margin of approximately 20% for the full year of 2024 [4]. Financial Projections - The projected financial metrics for the company are as follows: - Revenue is expected to decline from 7,081 million in 2023 to 5,988 million in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4% [5]. - The net profit is projected to decrease from 1,771 million in 2023 to 1,217 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 31.3% [5]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 74.5% in 2023 to 70.2% in 2024, while the net margin is projected to drop from 25.0% to 20.7% over the same period [5]. Market Dynamics - The company is facing increased competition in the mid-to-high-end liquor market, leading to a more conservative market approach since the second half of the year, which has impacted market share [2]. - The number of distributors at the end of Q3 was reported at 2,763 [2]. Stock Performance - The current stock price is 63.60 yuan, with a market capitalization of 211.89 billion yuan. The stock has seen a significant decline, with a 1-year high of 124.20 yuan and a low of 39.56 yuan [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Shede Spirits (600702 SH) [1][3] Core Views - Shede Spirits' revenue and net profit declined significantly in Q3 2024, with total revenue down 30 9% YoY and net profit attributable to parent company down 79 2% YoY [1] - The company is facing short-term pressure due to market adjustments and structural shifts in product mix [1] - Shede Spirits is implementing a long-term strategy focusing on brand building and channel management [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Shede Spirits reported total revenue of 1 189 billion yuan, down 30 9% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company was 78 million yuan in Q3 2024, a 79 2% YoY decrease [1] - Gross margin declined by 10 95 percentage points to 63 66% in Q3 2024 [1] Product and Market Strategy - The company is adopting a "volume control and price stabilization" strategy for its core product Pinwei Shede [1] - Shede Spirits is focusing on dual-brand strategy with Shede and Tuopai, aiming to strengthen its position in the high-end market [1] - Regional strategy combines nationwide expansion with deep cultivation in key markets [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to decline by 18 6% in 2024 to 5 764 billion yuan, with recovery projected in 2025 and 2026 [1][2] - Net profit attributable to parent company is forecasted to be 994 million yuan in 2024, a 43 9% decrease from 2023 [1][2] - The company's PE ratio is projected to be 22x in 2024, decreasing to 18x by 2026 [2][4] Operational Metrics - The number of distributors increased by 108 to 2,763 by the end of Q3 2024 [1] - Inventory turnover days are expected to increase from 798 22 days in 2023 to 895 36 days in 2024 [4] - Accounts receivable turnover days are projected to decrease from 14 85 days in 2024 to 6 07 days in 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.189 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 30.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 78 million yuan, down 79.23% year-on-year. The company is actively releasing inventory pressure, and the core product "Pinnacle Shide" is still in a destocking phase due to weak business demand. The main sources of growth are products like "Shen Zhi Dao" and "T68" which are positioned in the mass market. The recovery of business demand for mid-to-high-end liquor will take time. The company is adjusting its pace to destock, and while short-term performance may continue to be under pressure, the elasticity of business demand recovery is significant under the macroeconomic policy shift [2][6][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.460 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.03%, and a net profit of 669 million yuan, down 48.35% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the revenue was 1.189 billion yuan, and the net profit was 78 million yuan [6][2]. - The company is actively releasing inventory pressure, with Q3 2024 revenue including contract liabilities amounting to 1.201 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.69% [6]. Product and Regional Performance - In Q3 2024, revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor was 897 million yuan and 153 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 35.66% and 14.96%. For the first three quarters, mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor achieved revenues of 3.498 billion yuan and 537 million yuan, down 15.70% and 22.53% year-on-year [6]. - Regionally, Q3 2024 revenue from within the province and outside the province was 347 million yuan and 703 million yuan, with year-on-year decreases of 21.59% and 37.87% [6]. Profitability and Valuation - The gross margin in Q3 2024 was 63.66%, a decrease of 10.97 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix. The net profit margin was 6.56%, down 15.31 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The company expects revenues for 2024-2026 to be 5.829 billion yuan, 6.007 billion yuan, and 6.333 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 921 million yuan, 1.152 billion yuan, and 1.332 billion yuan [6][7]. The PE ratios for these years are projected to be 25, 20, and 17 times, respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 71.76 CNY, based on a reasonable valuation level of 24 times the earnings for 2024 [2][5][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.46 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 15.0% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 670 million CNY, down 48.3% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.19 billion CNY, down 30.9%, and net profit was 80 million CNY, down 79.2% [1]. - The decline in industry prosperity has put pressure on the company's sales. For the first three quarters of 2024, mid-to-high-end liquor generated 3.50 billion CNY in revenue (down 16% year-on-year), while low-end liquor brought in 540 million CNY (down 23% year-on-year). In Q3, mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 900 million CNY (down 36% year-on-year) [1]. - The company's gross margin decreased to 67.9% for the first three quarters of 2024, down 7.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a shift in product mix. The sales and management expense ratios increased to 21.4% and 9.8%, respectively, reflecting a rise in expenses due to a lower revenue base [1]. - The company's key products, Shezhidao and T68, are expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies, as they are positioned below 300 CNY, which may support performance amid declining consumer spending [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share for 2024-2026 are 2.99 CNY, 3.31 CNY, and 3.80 CNY, respectively, revised down from previous estimates of 3.60 CNY, 3.81 CNY, and 4.36 CNY [2][8]. - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is 5.934 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16.2%, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [4][11]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 67.9% in 2025 and slightly improve to 68.3% in 2026 [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.46 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 15.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 669 million yuan, down 48.35% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 1.19 billion yuan, down 30.92%, with a net profit of 78.04 million yuan, down 79.23% year-on-year, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to Q2 [1]. - The company is facing significant short-term pressure due to weak demand in the white liquor market, with a focus on a "control volume and support price" strategy and enhanced marketing efforts to reduce inventory [1]. - Despite the overall growth being under pressure, certain high-end products have shown strong performance, with sales of the high-end strategic product "藏品舍得 10 年" increasing by 384% year-on-year during the National Day holiday [1]. - The company is actively maintaining investor interests by announcing a share repurchase plan of 100 to 200 million yuan, reflecting confidence in future development [1]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.46 billion yuan, with a breakdown showing mid-to-high-end liquor revenue at 3.50 billion yuan (down 15.70%) and ordinary liquor revenue at 537 million yuan (down 22.53%) [1]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 63.67%, down 10.94 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.56%, down 15.28 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s financial forecasts for 2024-2026 project net profits of 919 million yuan, 879 million yuan, and 1.12 billion yuan respectively, with a downward revision from previous estimates [2][11]. Regional Performance - Revenue from outside the province was 2.78 billion yuan, down 19.88%, while revenue from within the province was 1.26 billion yuan, down 8.61% for the first three quarters of 2024 [1].