春秋航空股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告 单位：元 币种：人民币 证券代码：601021 证券简称：春秋航空 春秋航空股份有限公司 2024 年第三季度报告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证季度报告内容的真实、准确、完整，不存 在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 公司负责人、主管会计工作负责人及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）保证季度报告中财务信息 的真实、准确、完整。 第三季度财务报表是否经审计 □是 √否 一、 主要财务数据 （一） 主要会计数据和财务指标 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------|---------------|---------------------------------------|----------------|--------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 69.19 RMB [6][55] Core Views - The company is a leading low-cost carrier in China with strong growth potential and high ROE [1][2] - The company has demonstrated significant resilience and growth during the pandemic, with a 62% YoY increase in net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024H1 [1][14] - The company's profitability is expected to improve further due to market, leverage, and governance factors [2][27] - The company is expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and supply-demand reversal, with potential for significant profit growth from 2024 to 2026 [3][4][55] Company Overview - The company is a pioneer and leader in the low-cost carrier segment in China, focusing on domestic and international passenger and cargo transportation [1][14][15] - The company has expanded rapidly during the pandemic, with a 37% cumulative increase in the number of aircraft from 2019 to 2024H1, significantly higher than most airlines [1][14][20] - The company's revenue, net profit, and number of aircraft have shown an upward trend from 2014 to 2019, indicating continuous improvement in overall strength [1][14] Financial Performance - The company's revenue increased from 8,368.97 million RMB in 2022 to 17,937.86 million RMB in 2023, with a growth rate of 114.34% [5] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company increased from -3,035.82 million RMB in 2022 to 2,257.43 million RMB in 2023, with a growth rate of -174.36% [5] - The company's ROE, net profit margin, and gross profit margin are higher than those of the three major airlines, indicating strong profitability [2][27][29] Growth Drivers - The company's revenue growth is driven by rapid aircraft introduction, with a 9% CAGR in the number of aircraft from 2016 to 2023, significantly higher than the industry average [31][32] - The company's cost control is strict, with a significant advantage in unit costs, further strengthening its profitability [2][33][34] - The company's market share is expected to increase due to higher growth in aircraft numbers compared to other airlines [32][33] Industry Outlook - The aviation industry is expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and supply-demand reversal, with potential for significant profit growth from 2024 to 2026 [3][4][55] - The company's revenue and profit growth are expected to be driven by economic recovery, ticket price reform, and supply-demand dynamics [3][4][55] - The company's profitability is expected to improve further due to market, leverage, and governance factors [2][27] Valuation - The report uses a comparable company PE valuation method, giving a 20x2025E PE, with a target price of 69.19 RMB [55] - The company's 2025E EPS is expected to be 3.46 RMB, with a target price of 69.19 RMB, representing a significant upside potential [55] Risks - The report does not include risk factors as per the instructions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Spring Airlines, with a target price of 54.45 yuan as of September 26, 2024 [2] - The company's P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 18.1x, 15.5x, and 13.4x respectively, based on the closing price of September 26, 2024 [1] Core Views - Spring Airlines' low-cost strategy and operational efficiency continue to drive profitability, with net profit reaching a historical high in 2023 [1] - The company's domestic route performance remains strong, with a 2.7% year-on-year increase in passenger load factor in H1 2024 [2] - Spring Airlines is expected to benefit from the optimization of supply and demand in the aviation industry, with profitability expected to improve further as aircraft utilization recovers [1][2] Cost Control and Operational Efficiency - Spring Airlines maintains a low cost structure, with unit non-fuel costs showing room for further optimization as aircraft utilization recovers [8] - The company's unit sales expenses in H1 2024 were 0.0045 yuan/ASK, approximately 1/4 of the major airlines and 1/3 of Juneyao Airlines [8] - The company's high direct sales ratio and independent distribution system contribute to its cost advantage [8] Market Demand and Performance - Domestic demand recovery has been strong, with Spring Airlines' domestic capacity increasing by 13.3% year-on-year in H1 2024 [14] - Leisure travel demand has outperformed business travel, with Spring Airlines achieving record-high capacity and passenger numbers during major holidays in 2024 [14] - The company's revenue in H1 2024 reached 9.88 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.36 billion yuan, marking a 14.1% year-on-year increase in Q2 [13] Capacity Expansion and Resource Acquisition - Spring Airlines has been accumulating capacity during the industry downturn, with its fleet growth rate exceeding the industry average from 2020 to 2023 [21] - The company is expected to benefit from the release of new airport capacity, with major airports expected to increase their handling capacity by over 30% compared to 2019 levels [23] - Spring Airlines has been expanding its presence in key markets, with a significant increase in slots at airports with 20-50 million passenger throughput [28] Low-Cost Strategy and Pricing Power - Spring Airlines' low-cost strategy is becoming increasingly attractive as high-speed rail prices rise, potentially leading to a shift in passenger preference towards air travel [38] - The company's ticket prices are significantly lower than high-speed rail on key routes, with an average price difference of 13.27% in favor of Spring Airlines [40] - The company's revenue per passenger-kilometer (RPK) in 2023 was 0.38 yuan, compared to high-speed rail's 0.51 yuan post-price increase, highlighting its competitive pricing advantage [40] Profitability and Growth Outlook - Spring Airlines' net profit is expected to grow from 2.94 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.98 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 15.7% [45] - The company's ROE is projected to increase from 14.0% in 2024 to 15.2% in 2026, driven by improved profitability and operational efficiency [45] - Spring Airlines' aircraft utilization is expected to recover, with historical utilization rates reaching up to 11.24 hours per day, indicating significant room for improvement [42]

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨春秋航空（601021.SH） [Table_Title] Q2 收益韧性凸显，业绩超出预告上限 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------|-------| | 报告要点 | | | | [Table_Summary] 春秋航空披露 2024 年半年报， 2024H 春秋航空实现营业收入 | 98.8 亿元，同比增加 23.0% ，实 | | 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 赵超 张银晗 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490520080027 SFC：BQK468 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 春秋航空（601021.SH） 资料来源：Wind 相关研究 2024-05-27 [Table_Title2] Q2 收益韧性凸显，业绩超出预告上限 公司研究丨点评报 ...

| --- | |-------| | | | | | | 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——春秋航空更新报告 [table_Authors] 岳鑫(分析师) 尹嘉骐(分析师) 0755-23976758 021-38038322 yuexin@gtjas.com yinjiaqi@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880514030006 S0880524030004 本报告导读： 公司 2024 年盈利继续领跑行业且再创历史同期新高，充分展现廉航优势。十四五公 司把握机遇优化航网，且积极恢复机队周转，将驱动盈利继续增长。 投资要点： 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.08 Q2 盈利再创新高，展现廉航优势 春秋航空(601021) [Table_Industry] 运输/工业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_Target] 目标价格： 67.84 上次预测: 67.84 [当前价格： Table_Cu ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Spring Airlines (601021) [4] Core Views - Spring Airlines' low-cost advantage is expanding, with significant performance potential [1][4] - The company achieved revenue of 9.875 billion yuan in H1 2024, a YoY increase of 22.97%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.361 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 62.28% [2][5] - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.707 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 12.94%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 551 million yuan, a YoY increase of 14.05% [2][5] Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin reached 14.96% in H1 2024, the best level since 2017 [5] - The period expense ratio was 4.43%, reaching the historical low range of the same period in 2019 [5] - The company's aircraft daily utilization rate was 9.28 hours, with a 20.58% capacity improvement potential compared to the same period in 2019 [5] Market Position - The company added 6 A320neo series aircraft in H1 2024, with a fleet size of 127 aircraft [5] - The company's passenger load factor reached 91.31%, 9.11 percentage points higher than the industry average [5] - The company's market share in passenger traffic increased from 3.35% in the same period of 2019 to 3.96% [5] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.960 billion yuan, 3.694 billion yuan, and 4.470 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 31.10%, 24.82%, and 21.02% [5] - The company's EPS is projected to be 3.02 yuan, 3.77 yuan, and 4.57 yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to be 16.7, 13.4, and 11.0 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6]

量增价跌盈利向好，经营管理优势维持 春秋航空(601021.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 8 月 30 日 [Table_Profit] 基本状况 总股本(百万股) 979 流通股本(百万股) 979 市价(元) 50.48 市值(百万元) 49,397 流通市值(百万元) 49,397 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------|-------------------------|--------|--------|---------------------------|--------| | [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） [Table_Industry] \n市场价格：50.48 元 | [Table_Finance 公司盈利预测及估值 1] \n指标 | \n2022A | 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Spring Airlines (601021 SH) [1][4][8] Core Views - Spring Airlines demonstrated robust revenue growth and excellent cost control in H1 2024 [1] - The company's passenger revenue performance remained stable, with significant improvements in supply-demand metrics [1][5] - Unit costs showed a slight year-over-year decline, supporting continued earnings growth [1][5] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached 9 88 billion yuan (+23 0% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 1 36 billion yuan (+62 3% YoY) [1][5] - Q2 2024 revenue was 4 71 billion yuan (+12 9% YoY), with net profit of 551 million yuan (+14 1% YoY) [1][5] - Gross margin improved to 15 0% (+1 6pct YoY), while net margin reached 13 8% (+3 3pct YoY) [1][5] Operational Metrics - ASK and RPK grew by 21 5% and 26 1% YoY respectively in H1 2024, with load factor reaching 91 3% (+3 4pct YoY) [1][5] - Passenger yield per kilometer was 0 393 yuan (-2 5% YoY), with domestic and international yields up 7 9% and 18 0% compared to 2019 [1][5] - Daily aircraft utilization increased by 14 4% YoY, contributing to fixed cost dilution [1][5] Fleet Expansion - The company plans to add 8 aircraft in 2024, with a total of 127 A320 series aircraft in operation by Q2 2024 [1][5] - Fleet expansion targets include net additions of 8, 12, and 14 aircraft for 2024-2026, with a CAGR of 8 6% from 2023-2026 [1][5] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecasts are 21 557 billion, 24 314 billion, and 26 686 billion yuan respectively [2] - Net profit projections for 2024-2026 are 2 912 billion, 3 730 billion, and 4 384 billion yuan [2][9] - EPS estimates for 2024-2026 are 2 98, 3 81, and 4 48 yuan respectively [2] Valuation Metrics - 2024-2026 PE ratios are projected at 17 0x, 13 2x, and 11 3x [2] - PB ratios for 2024-2026 are estimated at 2 78x, 2 42x, and 2 10x [2] - ROE is expected to improve from 16 4% in 2024 to 18 7% in 2026 [2]

证 券 研 究 报 告 春秋航空（601021）2024 年中报点评 强推（维持） H1 盈利 13.6 亿元，同比+62.3%，超预告上 限，看好低成本航空龙头业绩兑现 公司公告 2024 年中报：1、2024H1：营收 98.8 亿，同比+23.0%，较 19 年 +38.1%，盈利 13.6 亿（预告盈利 12.9 至 13.4 亿，高于预告上限），同比+62.3%， 扣非盈利 13.6 亿，同比+79.1%。上半年人民币兑美元贬值 0.6%，汇兑收益 2088.7 万元。2、2024Q2：营收 47.1 亿，同比+12.9%，较 19 年+34.1%，盈利 5.5 亿（预告盈利 4.8 至 5.3 亿，高于预告上限），同比+14.1%，扣非盈利 5.5 亿，同比+31.1%。Q2 人民币兑美元贬值 0.4%，测算汇兑收益 588.7 万元。3、 其他收益：2024H1 实现 4.7 亿，同比-8.2%；2024Q2 实现 2.7 亿，同比-5.8%。 经营数据：1、24H1：ASK 同比+21.5%，较 19 年+28.7%，RPK 同比+26.1%， 较 19 年+28.2%，客座率 91.3%，同 ...

证券研究报告 | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 公司研究 | | [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 | | [Table_StockAndRank] 春秋航空 (601021) | | 投资评级 买入 | | 上次评级 买入 | | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交通运输行业首席分析师 执业编号： s1500524070004 邮 箱： kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com | | 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 春秋航空（ 601021.SH ）深度报告：低 成本航空龙头，定位精准空间可期 | | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------| | | | | 信达证券股份有限公司 | | [Table_Title] 春秋航空（601021.SH）2024 年中报点评： 经营韧性凸显，盈利空间可期 [Table_ ...