Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the major airlines, including China National Aviation (China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines) [2][7]. Core Insights - The air transport industry is experiencing a tight supply-demand situation leading to price increases, with domestic ticket prices rising by 19.9% year-on-year in February 2026 [10][11]. - The overall capacity growth in the industry has slowed, with domestic capacity growth lagging behind demand growth, resulting in an increase in passenger load factors [10][11]. - International routes are showing strong recovery, with a year-on-year increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) of 9.0% and 12.4%, respectively, in January-February 2026 [14][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In January-February 2026, the overall supply growth in the industry slowed, with domestic ASK/RPK increasing by 3.2%/4.7% and a passenger load factor of 86.7%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [10][11]. - The international market is benefiting from strong demand recovery, with international ASK/RPK at 114.3%/115.3% compared to the same period in 2019 [14][17]. 2. Pricing Trends - The industry saw a year-on-year increase in ticket prices, with domestic economy class prices rising by 1.8% and international prices increasing by 14.1% [10][11]. - The report highlights that the rising fuel surcharge due to increased oil prices will likely lead to further increases in ticket prices, testing the elasticity of demand [10][14]. 3. Fleet Management - As of February 2026, the six major listed airlines managed a total of 3,377 aircraft, with a net decrease of 4 aircraft from the previous month [22][29]. - The report notes that China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines had the largest net reductions in fleet size, each losing 2 aircraft [22][29].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [6] Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel season in February 2026 showed strong performance, with domestic airlines increasing capacity by approximately 11.4% year-on-year and 7.3% month-on-month, primarily due to the later timing of the Spring Festival compared to 2025 [2][11] - International routes saw a significant year-on-year capacity increase of about 16.5% in February 2026, with a notable rise in passenger load factor exceeding 4 percentage points [3][54] - The recent instability in the Middle East has positively impacted direct flights from China to Europe, leading to increased demand and ticket prices for these routes [3][59] Summary by Sections Domestic Routes - In February 2026, listed companies' domestic route capacity increased by approximately 11.4% year-on-year and 7.3% month-on-month, attributed to the Spring Festival occurring later this year [2][15] - The overall passenger load factor for February 2026 improved by about 0.7 percentage points compared to the same month in 2025, with a more significant month-on-month increase of approximately 2.9 percentage points [35][45] - The combined capacity and load factor metrics indicate a robust demand performance during the Spring Festival travel season [49] International Routes - The international route capacity for listed airlines in February 2026 increased by approximately 16.5% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month decrease of about 3.2% [3][54] - The passenger load factor for international routes saw a significant year-on-year increase of over 4 percentage points, with a month-on-month rise of 2.8 percentage points [57][58] - The demand for direct flights from China to Europe has surged due to reduced flight options through the Middle East, resulting in higher ticket prices [3][59] Oil Price Impact - The recent rise in oil prices, driven by geopolitical events, has reached nearly $100 per barrel for Brent crude, but its sustainability remains uncertain [4][14] - The negative impact of rising oil prices on airline stock prices has been largely reflected already, suggesting a focus on supply-demand dynamics moving forward [4][14] Investment Recommendations - There is a recommendation to focus on large airlines that are expected to benefit more significantly from the industry's recovery and improved profitability due to constrained supply growth and rising load factors [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report recommends the aviation sector as a promising investment opportunity due to the current supply constraints and high passenger load factors, indicating a potential golden era for the industry [3][20][26]. Core Insights - Global aviation demand is on the rise, with Q4 2025 showing the highest growth rate of the year at 6.0% year-on-year for passenger turnover (RPK) [3][6]. - The overall capacity (ASK) increased by 5.7% in Q4 2025, leading to a slight rise in the overall passenger load factor to 84.0% [3][9]. - The report highlights a K-shaped recovery in the U.S. aviation market, with premium business and international travel rebounding faster than domestic leisure travel [3][67]. Summary by Sections Global Aviation Market Overview - In 2025, global RPK increased by 5.3%, with international RPK growing by 7.1% and domestic RPK by 2.4% [10]. - The overall passenger load factor for the year slightly increased to 83.6%, reflecting a recovery to pre-pandemic levels [10][15]. U.S. Aviation Market Tracking - U.S. airline ticket sales reversed a downward trend starting Q3 2025, with international ticket revenue continuing to grow despite challenges [3][54]. - The four major U.S. airlines showed varied profitability in Q4 2025, with Delta Airlines' net profit increasing by 45%, while American Airlines saw an 83% decline [3][67][75]. European Aviation Market Tracking - The European aviation market saw a steady increase in flight volumes, with Q4 2025 flight numbers recovering to pre-pandemic levels [92][96]. - Ticket prices in Europe showed a slight decline compared to the previous year, indicating competitive pricing pressures [92][99]. Asian Aviation Market Tracking - Major Asian markets continued to show growth, with significant increases in passenger traffic at key airports in Southeast Asia and Japan [3][15]. - The fleet size in several Asia-Pacific markets remains below pre-pandemic levels, with notable growth in India's airline fleet [3][15]. Investment Analysis - The report emphasizes the unprecedented constraints in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain, suggesting that the aviation sector is poised for significant growth [3][20]. - Key recommendations include focusing on major Chinese airlines and global aircraft leasing companies, as well as airports with improving performance [3][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive medium-term supply-demand logic despite short-term pressure on oil prices. It notes that high passenger load factors are expected to drive price elasticity [11]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Spring Airlines, which leads in both ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) and RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth among domestic airlines [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Airline Data Analysis - In February, the ASK growth rates were led by Spring Airlines (22.8%), followed by China Southern Airlines (14.4%) and Air China (13.8%). RPK growth was also led by Spring Airlines (25.6%) [1]. - Cumulative data for January-February shows Spring Airlines leading in ASK (13.2%) and RPK (15.4%) growth [1]. 2. Domestic Routes - For February, Spring Airlines had the highest ASK growth at 23.9% and RPK growth at 25.5%. Cumulatively, Spring Airlines also led with an ASK growth of 18.4% [2]. 3. International Routes - In February, China Southern Airlines led with an ASK growth of 22.7% and RPK growth of 23.0%. Cumulatively, ASK growth was highest for China Southern Airlines at 16.1% [3]. 4. Regional Routes - Spring Airlines showed the highest ASK growth in February at 39.7% and RPK growth at 45.1%. Cumulatively, Spring Airlines also led with an ASK growth of 40.6% [4]. 5. Load Factor - In February, Spring Airlines had the highest load factor at 93.5%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1 percentage points. Cumulatively, Spring Airlines also led with a load factor of 92.8% [5]. 6. Fleet Size - As of February 2026, the six listed airlines collectively saw a net exit of 4 aircraft, with a total net exit of 9 aircraft compared to December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3% [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The Spring Festival has catalyzed demand release in civil aviation, with both supply and demand showing strong growth. The passenger load factor has increased to a high level, with domestic routes seeing a larger increase compared to international routes. In February, the total supply and demand of six listed airlines increased by 12.9% and 15.2% year-on-year, respectively, reaching approximately 125.2% and 127.3% of the levels in the same period of 2019 [9] - The performance of airlines varies, with Spring Airlines and Eastern Airlines leading in passenger load factors. The three major airlines reported a year-on-year increase in supply and demand of 13.7% and 15.8%, respectively, continuing the recovery trend. Domestic supply and demand have recovered to 134.5% and 137.4% of the levels in 2019 [9] - Ticket prices have increased year-on-year, and the overall supply-demand pattern in the industry remains positive. The average ticket price for domestic economy class in February reached 987.1 CNY (including tax), a year-on-year increase of 21.9% and an increase of 8.3% compared to 2019 [9] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The civil aviation industry is experiencing a robust recovery, driven by the Spring Festival and increasing passenger demand. The load factors for domestic and international routes have shown significant improvement compared to pre-pandemic levels [9] Airline Performance - The three major airlines have shown a strong recovery in both supply and demand, with Eastern Airlines leading in passenger load factors. The performance of private airlines like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines has also been notable, with their supply and demand recovering significantly compared to 2019 [9] Pricing Trends - The average ticket prices have risen significantly, indicating a positive trend in the industry. Despite rising oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the demand for flights, especially on international routes, has increased, helping to offset some of the cost pressures [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the aviation sector, recommending a focus on specific airlines such as China National Aviation, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others [74]. Core Insights - The summer flight schedule for 2026 indicates a controlled domestic capacity and a focus on international market recovery, with domestic flight schedules showing a 3% decrease compared to 2025 but a 19% increase compared to 2019 [3][6]. - The overall daily average flight schedule for domestic airlines is projected at 17,278 flights, reflecting a 1% decrease from 2025 but a 17% increase from 2019 [6]. - Domestic airlines are optimizing their route networks while international flights are expanding to stimulate recovery, with a recovery rate of 86% compared to 2019 levels [6][57]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market - Domestic airlines' average daily passenger flight schedules are expected to be 15,645 flights in 2026, down 3% from 2025 but up 19% from 2019 [4][27]. - The total daily average flight schedules for coordinated airports are projected to be 8,056 flights, remaining stable compared to 2025 and increasing by 21% from 2019 [6][27]. - Major airlines like China National Aviation, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines maintain significant market shares in key airports, with respective shares of 75%, 54%, and 49% [7][28]. International Market - The international flight schedules are expected to recover to 98% of 2019 levels, with a daily average of 2,621 flights planned for 2026 [6][57]. - Recovery rates for specific regions show varied performance, with Australia at 88%, North America at 24%, and Southeast Asia at 91% compared to 2019 [57][61]. - Domestic airlines are expected to achieve a recovery rate of 97% for international flights, indicating a strong rebound in international travel demand [61]. Investment Analysis - The report emphasizes the strong certainty in aviation supply logic, with limited fleet growth and resilient demand, particularly driven by visa-free policies boosting international travel [73]. - Recommendations include focusing on the aviation sector and specific airlines, as well as global aircraft leasing companies and airport operators with improving performance [73].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several airlines, including China National Aviation (601111.SH), China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH), China Southern Airlines (600029.SH), and others [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous decline in domestic flight schedules for the second consecutive year, indicating a tightening supply logic in the industry. Domestic flight schedules decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, while international flight schedules increased by 15% [9]. - The report suggests that the industry may be entering a self-discipline phase regarding supply, with a stable market share at hub airports. It anticipates improved competition dynamics and profitability in the domestic airline sector [9]. - The report emphasizes the potential benefits for domestic airlines from increased international flight capacity, particularly in the European and Southeast Asian markets, which may enhance demand for inbound tourism [9]. Summary by Sections Domestic Flight Schedules - Domestic flight schedules for the summer and autumn of 2026 total 218,354 per week, down 2.7% year-on-year, marking a second consecutive annual decline [9]. - Airlines such as Huaxia Airlines and Spring Airlines have seen increases in domestic flights, while others like Hainan Airlines and China National Airlines have experienced the most significant declines [9]. International Flight Schedules - Domestic airlines have increased international flight schedules, while foreign airlines have reduced theirs. The combined flight schedule for domestic and foreign airlines is at 76.7% of the levels seen in the summer and autumn of 2019 [9]. - The report notes significant growth in flight schedules to the Middle East, Central Asia, South Asia, and South America, with Southeast Asia and Europe seeing the most substantial increases [9]. Hub Airport Market Shares - Major airlines maintain stable market shares at their respective hub airports, with China National Airlines holding 44.0% of outbound flights from Beijing, China Eastern Airlines 46.1% from Shanghai, and China Southern Airlines 51.4% from Guangzhou [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Spring Airlines and China Southern Airlines, while also suggesting to pay attention to Huaxia Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and others due to the anticipated improvement in supply-demand dynamics and profitability [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has released the flight schedule for the summer-autumn season of 2026, indicating a 2.71% year-on-year decrease in domestic flight schedules, reflecting the intention to control capacity [3][5] - The flight schedule in first-tier cities shows a slight increase of 0.72%, while lower-tier cities experience declines ranging from 1.45% to 9.97% [3] - The overall structure of flight schedules remains stable, with first-tier, new first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities accounting for 19%, 28%, 26%, and 12% of total schedules, respectively [3] - Airlines such as Huaxia Airlines and Spring Airlines show significant year-on-year growth in domestic flight schedules, while China Southern Airlines has the highest proportion of schedules in first-tier cities [3] - The report highlights that international flight schedules are recovering, with domestic airlines' international and regional flight schedules reaching 97% and 89% of 2019 levels, respectively [3][31] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is 632.8 billion yuan, with 12 listed companies [1] Flight Schedule Analysis - Domestic airlines' flight schedules for the summer-autumn season of 2026 show a year-on-year decrease of 2.71%, with specific declines in various city tiers [3][5] - The highest number of domestic flight schedules is at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, with 8,777 schedules per week [3] Airline Performance - China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China show varying growth rates in domestic flight schedules, with Huaxia Airlines and Spring Airlines experiencing notable increases [3] - The report recommends focusing on opportunities in the international flight sector due to favorable policies and trends in cross-border travel [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests taking advantage of the current adjustments in the market, recommending key airlines such as the "Big Three" (China Southern, China Eastern, Air China), Hainan Airlines, and Spring Airlines for their performance certainty [3]

证券代码：601021 证券简称：春秋航空 公告编号：2026-006 春秋航空股份有限公司 2026 年 2 月份主要运营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 春秋航空股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2026 年 2 月份主要运营数据情 况如下： 一、本月机队情况 截至本月末，公司共运营 134 架空客 A320 系列飞机。 | 机型 | 自购 | 经营租赁 | 融资租赁 | 小计 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A320ceo | 55 | 18 | 2 | 75 | | A320neo | 34 | 13 | 0 | 47 | | A321neo | 11 | 1 | 0 | 12 | | 合计 | 100 | 32 | 2 | 134 | 二、本月主要新增航线情况 本月新增航线：广州=吉隆坡（周 1357）、广州=槟城（周 257）、兰州=昆明 （周 246）、北京大兴=揭阳（天天班）、宁波=石家庄=伊宁（周 1357）。 三、本月运营数据主要情况 | 指标 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the airline industry, indicating a projected performance that exceeds the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by more than 15% [6][17]. Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season is expected to see strong demand, with both air traffic volume and prices rising. The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to yield significant industry profits due to favorable supply and demand dynamics [3][6]. - The report highlights a 4.3% year-on-year increase in total personnel flow during the 40-day Spring Festival travel period, with air travel leading the growth at 5.3%. Domestic air passenger volume is projected to reach approximately 94.39 million, nearing the Civil Aviation Administration's forecast of 95 million [6][8]. - The report emphasizes that the airline industry is entering a "super cycle" of profitability, driven by market price liberalization and sustained demand growth, despite recent geopolitical oil price risks [6][12]. Summary by Sections Spring Festival Travel Demand - The Spring Festival travel period is characterized by a 4.3% increase in personnel flow, with air travel growing by 5.3%, outperforming rail and road transport [6][7]. - The domestic air passenger volume is expected to reach 94.39 million, marking a new historical high [6][8]. Pricing Trends - The report estimates that domestic air ticket prices will rise by approximately 3-4% year-on-year during the Spring Festival, with a notable increase of 8% during peak travel periods [6][12]. - The anticipated decline in jet fuel prices by 8% in Q1 2026 is expected to significantly improve airline profit margins [6][12]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The upcoming summer flight schedule will see a 1.6% reduction in total domestic flight plans compared to the previous year, reflecting ongoing regulatory efforts to control capacity growth [6][12]. - The report notes that the core airports will maintain stable domestic flight schedules, with international flights increasing by 3.3% [6][12]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests taking advantage of geopolitical oil price fluctuations to position for long-term growth in the airline sector, recommending stocks such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [6][12].