Core Viewpoint - A significant number of flights from China to Japan have been canceled, with a high cancellation rate expected in the coming weeks due to travel warnings and geopolitical tensions [1][5]. Flight Cancellations - As of November 24, 12 routes between China and Japan have canceled all flights, affecting cities like Nagoya, Fukuoka, Sapporo, and Osaka [1]. - The cancellation rate for planned flights to Japan is projected to reach 21.6% by December 27, the highest in a month [2]. - Routes with the highest cancellation rates include Tianjin Binhai to Kansai International (65.0%), Nanjing Lukou to Kansai International (59.4%), and Guangzhou Baiyun to Kansai International (31.3%) [2]. Government Warnings - Multiple Chinese government departments, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, have issued warnings advising citizens to avoid travel to Japan [5]. - The Hong Kong government has also updated travel information, urging residents to remain vigilant if traveling to Japan [5]. Airline Adjustments - Chinese airlines are making significant adjustments to their Japan routes, with many flights being closed for booking [5]. - China International Airlines has canceled plans to increase flights from Beijing Capital to Sapporo from four to seven weekly [6]. - Other airlines, such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines, have also announced reductions in flight frequencies and cancellations across various routes to Japan [8][11][21]. Geopolitical Context - Recent controversial statements by Japan's new Prime Minister have sparked criticism and heightened tensions between China and Japan, contributing to the decline in travel [16].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of recent comments from the Japanese Prime Minister has led to significant reductions and cancellations of flights between China and Japan, affecting travel plans during the peak winter and spring festival seasons. Group 1: Flight Reductions and Cancellations - Starting from December 1, Chinese airlines will face substantial reductions and cancellations of flights to Japan, with adjustments expected to last until the end of March 2026 [1] - A total of 16 Chinese airlines will reduce weekly flights to Japan by 156, with the largest reduction from Juneyao Airlines, cutting 35 flights per week, which is 31% of its total Japan routes [1] - China Southern, Shenzhen Airlines, and China Eastern will also reduce flights by 23, 22, and 18 per week, respectively [1] Group 2: Cancellation Rates and Specific Routes - The cancellation rate for planned flights to Japan is projected to reach 21.6% by November 27, with 12 routes already canceling all flights [2] - Among the top 20 routes, the highest cancellation rates include Tianjin Binhai to Kansai International at 65.0%, Nanjing Lukou to Kansai International at 59.4%, and Guangzhou Baiyun to Kansai International at 31.3% [2] - Smaller airlines, such as Beijing Capital Airlines, have also announced significant cancellations, including all flights on certain routes from December 9 to March 3 [2] Group 3: Aircraft Type Adjustments - Airlines are not only reducing flight frequencies but also changing aircraft types to smaller models, such as switching from the Airbus A330-300 to the A321, which has a lower passenger capacity [3] - Some airlines, like Shandong Airlines and Xiamen Airlines, have not made any changes to their Japan flight plans [3] - The overall trend indicates a reduction in capacity on China-Japan routes, leading to increased travel costs for consumers during the New Year and Spring Festival [3] Group 4: Price Increases - Spring Airlines has raised the minimum ticket prices on several routes, with one route's lowest fare increasing to 42,900 yen, indicating a trend of rising travel costs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant cancellation of flights between China and Japan, primarily due to geopolitical tensions and travel advisories issued by Chinese authorities, leading to a drastic reduction in flight operations and future booking cancellations [9][4]. Flight Cancellations - As of November 24, 12 routes between China and Japan have canceled all flights, affecting cities like Nagoya, Fukuoka, Sapporo, and Osaka [2]. - The cancellation rates for specific routes are notably high, with 100% cancellations reported for several routes including Hangzhou to Central Japan and Nanjing to Fukuoka [3]. Future Cancellation Rates - The cancellation rate for planned flights to Japan is expected to reach 21.6% by December 27, marking the highest level in a month [4]. - Routes with the highest cancellation rates include Tianjin to Kansai International (65.0%) and Nanjing to Kansai International (59.4%) [4]. Airline Adjustments - Chinese airlines are making significant adjustments to their Japan routes, with many flights being closed for booking. This includes reductions in frequency and cancellations of previously planned increases in service [9][11][13]. - Specific adjustments include: - Air China reducing flights from Beijing to Sapporo from 7 to 4 weekly [11]. - China Eastern Airlines closing bookings for 6 out of 14 weekly flights from Beijing to Osaka [16]. - Spring Airlines canceling certain flights from Shanghai to Okinawa starting December 20 [25]. Overall Impact - The overall impact of these cancellations and adjustments indicates a substantial decrease in travel between China and Japan, driven by both political factors and operational decisions by airlines [9][4].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to significantly reduce losses in November, with strong year-on-year growth in commercial demand and rising passenger load factors and domestic ticket prices [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In October, the aviation industry saw a year-on-year increase in ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) by 6%, RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) by 9%, and passenger volume by 6%, with domestic growth at 4% and international growth at 20% [2]. - The passenger load factor improved by 2.2 percentage points to 87.4%, and domestic ticket prices rose by 3-4% compared to September [2]. - The overall performance of A-share airlines in Q3 2025 showed a counter-cyclical growth, marking the third consecutive year of performance exceeding Q3 2019, indicating a potential upward trend in profitability [1][2]. Group 2: International Routes - The international passenger load factor for September and October is estimated to exceed 80%, matching the peak season, with a year-on-year increase of over 3 percentage points, leading to a significant rise in international ticket prices, particularly for European routes [3]. - The ongoing benefits from visa-free policies and the construction of international transit hubs are expected to enhance long-term profitability for airlines [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The decline in passenger flow on Japanese routes is anticipated to have a limited impact on the industry's profitability during the off-peak season, as the overall contribution of Japanese routes to the airlines' ASK is relatively small [4]. - Domestic trunk routes remain the core profit source for traditional airlines, and the performance of Japanese routes is not expected to alter the long-term growth logic of the aviation industry [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Chinese aviation industry is poised to enter a "super cycle," driven by a significant increase in the profitability baseline as supply and demand recover, with a focus on high-quality networks for traditional airlines [5]. - Strategic investment opportunities are recommended, with a focus on companies like Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [5].

中日航线正迎来大规模调整。南都N视频记者11月24日从航班管家获悉，据监测，未来一周赴日计划航班取消率在11月27日达到21.6%，为1 个月以来最高值。从计划航班来看，由于计划航班量较低，截至今日（11月24日）10点已有12条航线取消所有航班。 11月14日，外交部领事司发布消息提醒中国公民近期避免前往日本。此后，国航、东航、南航、海航、四川航空、春秋航空等航司陆续发 布涉日航线客票特殊处理公告，符合条件可以办理免费退改。南都此前报道，据AeroRoutes网站，中国多家航空公司当周开始逐步调整对 日航班服务，部分航班关闭预订： 例如：东航"北京大兴-大阪关西"航线自2025年12月1日起，14班中有6班关闭预订。春秋航空"大连-福冈"航线自2025年11月28日起，每周1 班关闭预订（该航线冬季仅于11月25日执行1班）。国航"北京首都-札幌新千岁"航线2025年12月9日至2026年3月7日，维持每周4班，原计 划增至每周7班已取消，等等。 根据航班管家DAST发布的监测信息，中日航线上主要承运航司有23家，国内航司17家，东航承运航班量占国内航司份额超两成，国航紧随 其后，占17.32%。受民航换季 ...

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - Crude oil freight rates are rising while ocean freight rates are declining. The China Import Crude Oil Comprehensive Index (CTFI) reached 2325.40 points on November 20, up 4.2% from November 13. VLCC market activity remains strong, but overall market activity is expected to decline without actual cargo support [3][14] - Changlong Airlines has initiated its IPO process, and VOLANT has signed a confirmation order for the VE25-100 eVTOL aircraft with a state-owned investment group, with the order amount exceeding 100 million yuan [3][16] - The China-Europe Railway Express has surpassed 3500 trips this year, marking a historical high. A new "passenger-cargo-mail integration" model has been launched in cooperation between Rizhao Public Transport and SF Express [3][22] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates are high while ocean freight rates are declining. The Shanghai port export price to Europe was $1367/TEU, down 3.5%, and to the US West and East Coast was $1645/FEU and $2384/FEU, down 9.8% and 8.3% respectively [3][15] - Changlong Airlines is preparing for its IPO, with a focus on expanding its operational capacity and market reach [3][16] - The China-Europe Railway Express has achieved a record of over 3500 trips this year, with a focus on high-value goods transportation [3][23] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased both month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in air freight pricing [4][28] - Domestic express delivery volume increased by 7.90% year-on-year in October 2025, with total express delivery volume reaching 176 billion pieces [4][50] - The national highway freight truck traffic increased by 2.57% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in road logistics [4][18] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Attention to the low-altitude economy sector, with recommendations for CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Investment opportunities in the road and rail sectors, recommending companies such as Gansu Expressway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [5]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京11月24日电 A股7家上市航空公司2025年三季报均已披露完毕。 新华财经和面包财经研究员梳理公开资料显示，2025年前三季度，南方航空、中国国航、中国东航营收规模超过千亿元。归母净利润方面，7家航司普遍实 现盈利。春秋航空、吉祥航空前三季度归母净利润同比出现下滑。 客座率方面，2025年前三季度，春秋航空、吉祥航空、南方航空客座率居前。 吉祥航空营收同比微降 2025年前三季度，南方航空、中国国航、中国东航营业收入规模均超过千亿元，分别为1376.65亿元、1298.26亿元、1064.14亿元。 | | A股上市航司2025年前三季度 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 营业总收入 | | 600029.SH | 南方航空 | 1,376.( | | 601111.SH | 中国国航 | 1,298.2 | | 600115.SH | 中国东航 1,064.1 | | | 600221.SH | 海航控股 | 534.3 | | 601021.SH | 春秋航空 | 167.7. | | ୧୦3885 ટેમ | 吉祥航空 | 17 ...

春秋航空股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年8月27日召开第五届董事会第十二次会议，审议通 过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份的议案》，同意公司使用自有资金和自筹资金以集中竞价 交易方式回购公司股份，回购资金总额不低于人民币30,000万元（含），不超过人民币50,000万元 （含），并将回购股份全部用于员工持股计划，同时同意授权公司管理层全权办理本次回购股份的相关 事宜。因公司实施2025年半年度权益分派事宜，自2025年10月17日（权益分派除权除息日）起，本次以 集中竞价方式回购股份的价格上限由不超过人民币65元/股（含）调整为不超过人民币64.57元/股 （含）。详见公司于2025年11月19日披露的《春秋航空关于以集中竞价交易方式回购股份的回购报告 书》（公告编号：2025-064）。 截至2025年11月21日，公司通过上海证券交易所交易系统以集中竞价交易方式已累计回购公司股份 71,800股，占公司目前总股本的0.0073%，使用资金总额为人民币3,998,942.00元（不含交易佣金、过户 费等交易费用）。基于对未来发展和公司价值的充分认可，公司将继续实施回购股份，以增强投资者信 ...

春秋航空股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 8 月 27 日召开第五届 董事会第十二次会议，审议通过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份的议 案》，同意公司使用自有资金和自筹资金以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份，回购 资金总额不低于人民币 30,000 万元（含），不超过人民币 50,000 万元（含），并 将回购股份全部用于员工持股计划，同时同意授权公司管理层全权办理本次回购股 份的相关事宜。因公司实施 2025 年半年度权益分派事宜，自 2025 年 10 月 17 日 （权益分派除权除息日）起，本次以集中竞价方式回购股份的价格上限由不超过人 民币 65 元/股（含）调整为不超过人民币 64.57 元/股（含）。详见公司于 2025 年 11 月 19 日披露的《春秋航空关于以集中竞价交易方式回购股份的回购报告书》 （公告编号：2025-064）。 截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日，公司通过上海证券交易所交易系统以集中竞价交易 方式已累计回购公司股份 71,800 股，占公司目前总股本的 0.0073%，使用资金总 额为人民币 3,998,942.00 元（不含交易佣金、过户费等交易费 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates, reaching a new high, driven by a notable decline in Russian oil exports, which has created additional demand for oil transportation from the Middle East to India and China [3][4] - The report suggests a positive outlook for the transportation sector, particularly in shipping and aviation, with recommendations for specific companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring seasonal trends in freight rates, particularly the potential for a "not-so-dull" off-season from December to February [3] Industry Overview - The transportation index has decreased by 5.00%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points, with the express delivery sector showing the smallest decline at -2.75% and the public transport sector experiencing the largest drop at -9.35% [4][11] - The shipping sector has shown mixed performance, with the Baltic Dry Index increasing by 5.67% while the coastal dry bulk freight index fell by 3.47% [4][11] - The report notes that the average freight rate for VLCCs has risen by 5% week-on-week, reaching $126,371 per day, with the Middle East to Far East route hitting a new high of $138,144 per day [3][4] Shipping Sector Insights - The report indicates that the average freight rate for the fourth quarter is approaching $99,000 per day, marking it as one of the highest quarterly averages in history [3] - The decline in Russian oil exports has been significant, dropping from nearly 4 million barrels per day to around 3 million barrels per day, which has increased demand for oil from the Middle East [3][4] - The report also highlights the recovery of chartering activities following the Bahri conference, with shipowners beginning to control capacity due to tightening supply [3] Aviation Sector Insights - The report discusses the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain, with an aging fleet expected to persist over the next 5-10 years, leading to constrained supply [3] - It anticipates a significant improvement in airline profitability as capacity is allocated to international routes, suggesting a potential golden era for airlines [3] - Recommendations include major airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from these trends [3] Express Delivery Sector Insights - The express delivery industry is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined: price recovery leading to utility-like profitability, continued competitive pressure, or higher-level consolidation [3] - Companies such as Shentong Express and YTO Express are highlighted as having strong potential due to their competitive advantages and market positioning [3] High Dividend Stocks in Transportation - The report lists high dividend yield stocks in the transportation sector, including Bohai Ferry with a yield of 8.08% and China Railway with a yield of 3.95% [21] - The focus on high dividend stocks is seen as a stable investment strategy amidst market fluctuations [21]