金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 2025 年 11 月 03 日 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 何申昊（分析师） 证书编号：S0790524070009 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 相关研究报告 《开源量化评论（23）-"金股+"组 合的量化方案》-2021.4.26 《开源量化评论（32）-券商金股的内 部收益结构》-2021.8.29 券商金股解析月报（2025 年 11 月） ——金融工程定期 魏建榕（分析师） 高鹏（分析师） weijianrong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519120001 gaopeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520090002 11 月份券商金股特征解析 11 ...

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector stocks experienced a decline in early trading, with Northern Rare Earth and Luoyang Molybdenum falling over 5%, and Zijin Mining and Huayou Cobalt dropping over 4% [1] - The related ETFs for non-ferrous metals dropped nearly 4% due to adjustments in heavy-weight stocks [1] - Specific ETF performance includes: Non-ferrous Metal ETF at 1.701 (-3.95%), Non-ferrous 60 ETF at 1.629 (-3.89%), and Non-ferrous Leaders ETF at 0.872 (-3.75%) [2] Group 2 - Brokerages indicate that the non-ferrous metal sector will face high market volatility risks in 2025, influenced by uncertainties from both demand and supply sides [2] - Emerging demand in the downstream structure of copper and aluminum has shifted from quantitative to qualitative changes, which is expected to support a long-term upward adjustment in the price center of non-ferrous metals [2]

消息上，亚市早盘现货黄金回落至3970美元/盎司下方，跌幅为0.84%。11月1日，财政部、国家税务总 局发布关于黄金有关税收政策的公告。该公告自2025年11月1日起实施，执行至2027年12月31日，适用 时间以发生实物交割出库的时间为准。 四川大学经济学院教授龚秀国表示，在当今世界存在不确定性与黄金价格居高不下的背景下，黄金市场 涌入大量投资者，潜藏较大风险，新政可通过税收杠杆及投资用途说明等遏制及预防投机过度的黄金交 易及炒作，更真实地反映市场需求。 11月3日消息，港股黄金股盘初集体走低，其中，中国黄金国际跌超5%，山东黄金跌超4%，紫金矿 业、紫金黄金国际、赤峰黄金、中国白银集团跌超3%，招金矿业、潼关黄金跌超2%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metal, non-metal, and mining industry [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that December interest rate cut expectations have weakened, leading to fluctuations in copper and aluminum prices. The overall industrial metal prices have shown volatility, with domestic prices falling except for aluminum, while external prices have risen for all but copper and nickel. This is attributed to the realization of benefits from the October interest rate cut and US-China talks, alongside hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve that have dampened December rate cut expectations [1][4]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report indicates that gold prices are stabilizing as the interest rate cut approaches, with recession trading remaining the core driver for gold price recovery. The report emphasizes that the current environment suggests gold prices are more likely to fluctuate rather than indicate a trend reversal. The focus is on the potential impact of domestic gold trading tax policies, which may increase the cost of physical gold holdings while stabilizing reserves [3][4]. Industrial Metals - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook for copper and aluminum. It notes that while short-term interest rate cut expectations have decreased, the medium to long-term economic stabilization outlook remains unchanged. The report highlights that supply adjustments in copper and aluminum since late September warrant attention, particularly the potential for overseas copper companies to reduce supply at year-end [5][6]. Energy and Minor Metals - The lithium sector is identified as entering a pivotal year, with demand for lithium expected to grow significantly by 2026 due to stable domestic power demand and the acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization. The report also discusses the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, noting that the long-term demand for rare earth materials is expected to recover due to traditional demand bottoming out and the acceleration of applications in humanoid robotics [6][7]. Market Performance - The report notes that the metal materials and mining sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 2.64% increase compared to a 0.11% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index. The energy metals sector has shown particularly strong performance, with a 4.99% increase [15][19].

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rose during the week of October 27 to October 31, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.11% to close at 3954.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.67% to 13378.21 points, and the ChiNext Index gaining 0.50% to 3187.53 points [2][3] - Approximately 52% of stocks experienced gains during the week, with 142 stocks rising over 15% and 15 stocks declining over 15% [2] Sector Performance - The leading sectors in terms of growth included electric power equipment, non-ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals, while sectors such as telecommunications, beauty care, banking, and electronics saw declines [2] International Market Overview - In the U.S. market, the three major indices also saw increases on October 31, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.09% to 47562.87 points, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.26% to 6840.20 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.61% to 23724.96 points [4][5] - Conversely, European indices experienced declines, with the FTSE 100 down by 0.44%, the CAC 40 down by 0.44%, and the DAX down by 0.67% [4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with light crude oil futures for December delivery rising by $0.41 to $60.98 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures increasing by $0.07 to $65.07 per barrel [4] Economic Policies and Developments - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized the mutually beneficial nature of China-U.S. economic relations, highlighting discussions between the two countries' leaders aimed at enhancing cooperation [6] - The State Council of China, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to discuss deepening reforms in key areas and expanding institutional openness, focusing on aligning with international high-standard economic and trade rules [7] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced tax policies regarding gold transactions, aiming to support the gold market amid global economic shifts [8] Investment Opportunities - The low-altitude economy is projected to see commercial operations for manned travel by 2030, presenting potential investment opportunities in this emerging sector [10][11] - The solid-state battery market is expected to grow significantly, with production validation phases anticipated to complete by 2025, driven by new applications in low-altitude travel, robotics, and AI [12]

Core Insights - The foreign public funds have achieved significant excess returns due to proactive industry positioning and stable investment strategies, with some funds reporting returns exceeding 50% year-to-date [1][2] Group 1: Fund Performance - BlackRock Advanced Manufacturing Fund has a year-to-date return of 66.44%, with a heavy concentration in the manufacturing sector, accounting for 92.52% of its stock investments [2] - The top ten holdings of the BlackRock fund include companies like CATL and Hikvision, with notable stock price increases such as 176.76% for Zhongji Xuchuang [2] - The Robeco Resource Select Fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 79.00%, diversifying its investments across materials, mining, and energy sectors [2] Group 2: Market Outlook - Fund managers maintain a positive outlook for the fourth quarter, expecting low interest rates and ample liquidity to support the A-share market's medium to long-term performance [1][3] - Concerns about geopolitical factors and overseas policy rhythms may cause short-term disruptions, but the overall sentiment remains optimistic for quality technology and resource assets [3][5] - The managers of the BlackRock fund believe that the current low-growth macro environment will anchor a low-interest-rate scenario, pushing investors towards riskier assets with positive cash flows [4] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - The funds have maintained relatively high positions while making flexible adjustments based on market changes, focusing on sectors like electronics and power equipment [3] - The Allianz China Select Fund has a year-to-date return of 54.48%, with significant holdings in manufacturing and healthcare, reflecting confidence in China's technological innovation [3] - The Robeco fund has strategically included upstream industries related to the current technology innovation cycle, aiming for future gains [5][6]

本报记者 方凌晨 随着A股上市公司三季报披露结束，各类型机构投资布局相继呈现。公募基金与私募基金作为资本市场 投资端的重要力量，其持仓布局备受关注。据《证券日报》记者梳理，有332只个股已连续三个季度被 公募基金及私募基金同时持有，这332只个股主要分布于有色金属、硬件设备等行业。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示："公募基金与私募基金既是投 资者参与资本市场的重要入场渠道，也是专业的代客理财工具。但是两者在运作管理、投资等方面存在 着区别，公募基金面对更广泛的投资者群体，受到更加严格的监管，需要遵守更多的规范，私募基金相 对更为灵活。" 从持股市值来看，宁德时代、贵州茅台、中际旭创和新易盛4只个股获公募基金持有市值均超1000亿 元，紫金矿业、寒武纪、中国平安、东方财富等个股获公募基金持有市值也位居前列。从持股数量变动 上来看，与今年二季度末相比，有色金属行业的铜陵有色是获得公募基金增持最多的个股，获增持3.18 亿股。 随着行业"扶优限劣"态势持续升级，私募基金加速驶上规范发展快车道，年内规模整体呈增长趋势，其 总规模在今年三季度末已达20.74万亿元。数据显示，截至今年三季 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have led to significant agreements, including the cancellation of certain tariffs and a pause on export controls, which may positively impact market sentiment [3][48] - The Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance has pressured metal prices, particularly gold, but there remains underlying support due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [4][50] - Long-term trends indicate a continued focus on gold and silver investments, driven by concerns over global debt and currency devaluation, with specific stocks recommended for investment [51][52] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices on COMEX fell by 1.20% to $4,077.20 per ounce, while silver prices decreased by 0.33% to $48.25 per ounce [1][30] - The gold-silver ratio declined by 0.88% to 84.50, indicating a potential for silver price recovery [30] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 248,440.78 ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings fell by 8,982,443.90 ounces [30] Base Metals - Copper prices on LME dropped by 0.51% to $10,891.50 per ton, while aluminum prices increased by 1.10% to $2,888.00 per ton [9] - The report notes a tightening supply for copper due to ongoing geopolitical issues and production challenges, with a projected reduction in output [11][21] - The aluminum market remains stable, with domestic production capacity holding steady and demand from sectors like electric vehicles and power generation expected to support prices [22] Minor Metals - Magnesium prices decreased by 0.90% to 17,680 yuan per ton, with stable demand but reduced purchasing activity from export traders [17] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices have shown weakness, with ongoing pressure from oversupply and reduced demand in the steel sector [18]

[Table_Author] 有色金属周报 20251102 中美贸易摩擦暂缓一年，内外共振将驱动商品价格上行 2025 年 11 月 02 日 ➢ 本周（10/27-10/31）上证综指上涨 0.11%，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.66%，SW 有 色指数上涨 2.56%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金 - 2.75%，COMEX 白银- 0.33%。工业金属 价格铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动 + 1.10%、-0.51%、+1.01%、+0.42%、- 0.49% 、+1.49%；工业金属 LME 库存铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动 + 17.95%、-1.27%、-6.12%、-6.40%、+0.50%、+4.55%。 ➢ 工业金属：中美会谈释放积极信号，贸易摩擦展缓一年，工业金属将迎来内外需 共振。铜方面，SMM 进口铜精矿指数为-41.25 美元/干吨，环比增加 0.55 美元/吨。宏 观方面利好频出，中美会谈释放积极信号，中美贸易摩擦展缓一年，未来工业金属将迎 来难得的需求内外共振伦铜周内突破 11000 美元/吨大关，突破历史新高。铝方面，供 给端海外电解铝厂减产 21 万吨并预计 2026 年 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a mixed performance in October, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.1% and 1.56% respectively. The focus is on identifying investment opportunities for November as multiple brokerages have released their monthly investment portfolios across various sectors [1]. Group 1: Recommended Stocks - A total of 11 stocks, including Huadian Technology, Industrial Fulian, and Yun Aluminum, received recommendations from two brokerages each [4]. - Among the recommended stocks, Zhongji Xuchuang had the highest increase in October, rising over 17% to a closing price of 473.01 yuan, while Top Group experienced the largest decline, falling over 8.9% to a closing price of 73.78 yuan [4]. Group 2: Industry Preferences - Several brokerages suggest focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, brokerage firms, and pharmaceuticals, indicating a potential increase in market volatility [6]. - Guosheng Securities recommends a balanced asset allocation to navigate short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of verifying economic conditions, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, lithium batteries, and storage [6]. - Zhongyuan Securities anticipates a continuation of structural oscillation in the market, advising investors to consider low-volatility assets as a fundamental allocation [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Donghai Securities highlights three main investment lines, including a focus on technology, particularly in artificial intelligence, and investment opportunities related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" strategic emerging industries [7]. - The expectation of increased investment in the fourth quarter is also noted, particularly regarding its impact on upstream resource demand [7].