www.ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 行业展望 联络人 作者 企业评级部 | 陈田田 010-66428877 | | --- | | ttchen@ccxi.com.cn | | 刘紫萱 010-66428877 | | zxliu@ccxi.com.cn | 其他联络人 王梦莹 010-66428877 mywang01@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 中国有色金属行业 中国有色金属行业展望，2026 年 2 月 在矿端供应偏紧、需求韧性较强的背景下，预计 2026 年有色金属行 业保持较高景气度，全球财政与货币政策调整、贸易摩擦、地缘政 治等因素将对行业发展形成扰动，基本金属价格中枢存在上行或高 位震荡预期；加工费低迷、行业竞争加剧令冶炼加工环节承压，行 业利润将进一步向资源自给率高、成本控制能力强的企业集中，整 体信用水平保持稳定。 中国有色金属行业展望为维持稳定，中诚信国际认为未来 12~18 个 月行业总体信用质量不会发生重大变化。 核心观点 1 2026 年 2 月 目录 核心观点 1 分析思路 2 行业基本面 2 行业财务表现 14 结论 22 附表 23 中诚信 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of gold prices and related stocks, with COMEX gold futures trading around $5,080 and London gold at approximately $5,060 [1] - Gold-related ETFs have shown significant gains, with the 华夏 Gold ETF (518850) up 0.61%, the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) up 3.16%, and the Gold Stocks ETF (159562) up 3.41%, indicating a positive market sentiment towards gold investments [1] - Six gold-listed companies, including Zijin Mining and Zhongjin Gold, have released earnings forecasts for 2025, with Zijin Mining expecting a net profit increase of 59%-62% year-on-year, and Zhongjin Gold projecting a Q4 net profit growth of 14%-75% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2 - The 华夏 Gold ETF (518850) and Gold Stocks ETF (159562) have a combined management and custody fee of 0.2%, which is among the lowest in their category, making it more cost-effective for investors to participate in the gold market [2]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with companies like Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, and Northern Rare Earth seeing significant stock price increases of 7.98%, 6.72%, and 6.34% respectively, contributing to a nearly 3% rise in the Tianhong Non-ferrous Metal ETF (159157) [1] - The Tianhong Non-ferrous Metal ETF has attracted substantial capital inflow, with a total of 890 million shares purchased in a single day and a cumulative net inflow of 614 million yuan over three days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The ETF covers a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, and rare earths, allowing it to capture various market cycles effectively [1] Group 2 - On February 10, prices for mainstream rare earth products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxides have risen due to tight supply conditions and strong demand from downstream buyers [2] - The non-ferrous sector is expected to perform well in 2025, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum projected to see net profit increases of over 60% and 50% respectively, while Shenghe Resources and Huayu Mining are expected to see even higher profit growth [2] - Following price adjustments by tungsten companies, Zhangyuan Tungsten has also raised its long-term procurement prices for black and white tungsten concentrates by 28.1% [2] - The U.S. has initiated a $12 billion strategic metal reserve plan, and the Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association has suggested commercial interest subsidies for copper and copper concentrates to enhance resource value [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing short-term pressure due to pre-holiday sentiment, but there are structural opportunities in specific sub-sectors [2] - The global non-ferrous metals industry is expected to enter a "recovery cycle with supply constraints" from 2026 to 2027, with copper and aluminum prices shifting from supply constraints and loose liquidity in 2026 to demand recovery in 2027 [2] - The supply growth of electrolytic aluminum is projected to be only 1.7% in 2026, with a supply gap of over 800,000 tons; electrolytic copper supply growth is 2.4% while demand growth is 3.3%, indicating a shift from surplus to shortage [2] Group 2 - Tungsten is expected to see a continued supply-demand shortage due to China's mining control policies, leading to sustained price increases from 2026 to 2027 [3] - Rare earth permanent magnets are experiencing tightening supply-side integration, with improving demand expectations for exports, indicating a fundamental improvement [3] - Cobalt is projected to face a global shortage due to supply reduction policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with strong upward momentum in the short term [3] Group 3 - Lithium is benefiting from the rising demand for energy storage batteries and domestic supply disruptions, potentially at the bottom of its cycle [3] - Nickel is expected to clear supply issues from the second half of 2026 to 2027 due to Indonesia's quota policies, with prices likely to rise if economic recovery boosts stainless steel demand [3] - Magnesium is gaining traction in the lightweighting sector of new energy vehicles due to its higher cost-effectiveness compared to aluminum, indicating improved industry sentiment [3] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metals ETF (512400) closely tracks the CSI Shenyin Wanguo Non-Ferrous Metals Index, which selects 50 listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, China Aluminum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [3]

（原标题：港股异动 | 紫金矿业(02899)涨超3% 公司上调未来三年产量指引 机构称其长期产量增长强 劲） 智通财经APP获悉，紫金矿业(02899)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.59%，报43.84港元，成交额12.51亿港 元。 美银证券指出，紫金矿业上调2026至2028年产量指引，预期矿产金产量将于2028年达到130至140吨，原 先指引为100至110吨；2025至2028年间年均复合增长率为13%至16%。同时，公司指引2028年铜产量将 达150万至160万吨，即2025至2028年间的年均复合增长率为11%至14%。该行认为，公司长期产量增长 强劲，成本控制严格，且估值合理，看好金价及铜价前景。 fund 消息面上，近日，紫金矿业会议审议通过《公司三年(2026—2028年)主要矿产品产量规划和2035年远景 目标纲要》，明确未来3年主要矿产品产量规划指标。花旗认为，通过现有矿山的扩张计划及并购，紫 金矿业的产量在未来几年将持续稳健增长。 ...

消息面上，近日，紫金矿业会议审议通过《公司三年(2026—2028年)主要矿产品产量规划和2035年远景 目标纲要》，明确未来3年主要矿产品产量规划指标。花旗认为，通过现有矿山的扩张计划及并购，紫 金矿业的产量在未来几年将持续稳健增长。 美银证券指出，紫金矿业上调2026至2028年产量指引，预期矿产金产量将于2028年达到130至140吨，原 先指引为100至110吨；2025至2028年间年均复合增长率为13%至16%。同时，公司指引2028年铜产量将 达150万至160万吨，即2025至2028年间的年均复合增长率为11%至14%。该行认为，公司长期产量增长 强劲，成本控制严格，且估值合理，看好金价及铜价前景。 紫金矿业（601899）(02899)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.59%，报43.84港元，成交额12.51亿港元。 ...

| | i称 | 预告净利润上限 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | | 601899. SH | 紫金矿业 | 520 | 62 | | 603993. SH | 洛阳铝业 | 208 | 54 | | 603799. SH | 华友钻业 | 65 | 55 | | 600489. SH | 中金黄金 | 54 | 59 | | 600547. SH | 山东黄金 | 49 | 66 | | 600988. SH | 赤峰黄金 | 32 | 81 | | 600111. SH | 北方稀土 | 24 | 135 | | 002460. SZ | 赣锋锂业 | 17 | 180 | | 002155. SZ | 湖南黄金 | 16 | 90 | | 600392. SH | 盛和资源 | 9 | 339 | | 601020. SH | 华钰矿业 | 9 | 255 | | 002466. SZ | 天齐锂业 | 6 | 107 | | 601069. SH | 西部黄金 | 5 | 93 | | 002716. SZ | 湖南白银 | 4 | 127 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on February 11, with the non-ferrous sector showing resilience, particularly the ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652), which rose by 1.84% [1]. Non-Ferrous Sector Performance - The ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) saw most of its constituent stocks rise, with Huayou Cobalt increasing over 3%, Luoyang Molybdenum up over 2%, and Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth both rising over 1% [2][3]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the ETF include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, with respective weightings of 15.07%, 7.81%, and 4.38% [4]. International Precious Metals Market - On February 11, international precious metal prices increased, with spot gold reaching $5,050 per ounce and silver rising over 1% [5]. - The unexpected stagnation in U.S. retail sales data has fueled bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [5]. Company Developments - Xiamen Tungsten announced plans to acquire a 39% stake in Jiujiang Dadi Mining, aiming to enhance its tungsten and molybdenum resource security [5]. - Luoyang Molybdenum completed the acquisition of a Brazilian gold mine for $1.015 billion, with plans to increase gold production significantly by 2030 [6]. Long-term Trends in Precious Metals - The trend of central banks purchasing gold is strengthening, with gold surpassing U.S. Treasuries as the largest reserve asset globally for the first time in 30 years [8]. - The expansion of fiscal policies and sovereign debt is injecting new momentum into the precious metals market, with gold's monetary properties expected to strengthen further [9]. Copper Market Outlook - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains optimistic due to supply constraints and increasing demand from AI data centers and energy storage [10][11]. - The anticipated supply disruptions in global copper mines could support a long-term upward trend in copper prices [11]. Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous sector is highlighted as having significant investment value, driven by monetary easing, supply rigidity, and new demand dynamics [11]. - The ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) is positioned to benefit from the super cycle in non-ferrous metals, with a high gold and copper content of 49% [13].

近期，多家上市公司对外公告，通过收购金矿加码黄金业务。2月9日，紫金矿业公告，预计2026年矿产 金达到105吨，矿产铜达到120万吨，矿产银达到520吨，公司将开足马力释放金、铜等主力矿种产能。 金板块方面，紫金黄金国际保持巴布亚新几内亚波格拉金矿、澳大利亚诺顿金田、哥伦比亚武里蒂卡金 矿、圭亚那奥罗拉金矿、塔吉克斯坦吉劳塔罗金矿、吉尔吉斯斯坦左岸金矿等一批成熟在产项目稳产高 产，加速苏里南罗斯贝尔金矿、加纳阿基姆金矿、哈萨克斯坦瑞果多金矿等重要增量项目产能释放。同 时，充分发挥国内陇南紫金、山西紫金、新疆紫金黄金等产能优势，加快山东海域金矿建成投产。 紫金矿业日前披露的2025年业绩预告显示，公司预计2025年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润510亿元 至520亿元，同比增长59%—62%。2025年，公司主要矿产品产量同比增加。其中，矿产金约90吨 （2024年为73吨）、矿产铜（含卡莫阿权益产量）约109万吨（2024年为107万吨）、矿产银约437吨 （2024年为436吨）、当量碳酸锂（含藏格矿业5—12月产量）约2.5万吨（2024年为261吨）。2025年， 矿产金、矿产铜、矿产银销售价格同比上 ...

Group 1: Company Announcements - Multiple listed companies are increasing their gold business through acquisitions, with Zijin Mining announcing plans to reach gold production of 105 tons by 2026 [1] - Jinhui Co. signed an agreement to acquire 100% of Fusheng Mining for 210 million yuan, which holds a mining license for a gold mine with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons [1] - Zijin Mining's subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, plans to acquire Allied Gold Corporation for approximately 5.5 billion CAD (about 28 billion yuan), targeting gold resources of 533 tons [2] Group 2: Production and Financial Projections - Zijin Mining's production plan includes targets of 105 tons of gold, 120 tons of copper, and 520 tons of silver by 2026, with further growth expected by 2028 [2][3] - The company anticipates a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62%, with significant increases in production across key minerals [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Consumption - China's gold consumption is projected to decline by 3.57% in 2025, while gold production is expected to increase by 1.09% [4] - The demand for gold in industrial applications is rising, driven by emerging industries, despite a decrease in jewelry consumption [4][5] - Global gold demand is expected to exceed 5,000 tons for the first time, with a total value reaching 555 billion USD, marking a 45% year-on-year increase [5]