近期贵金属市场波动加剧，受美联储主席提名等因素影响，黄金白银价格出现调整，但机构长期看好贵 金属前景。作为美国主要白银生产商，赫克拉矿业可能间接受到行业情绪变化驱动。2月11日港股黄金 股板块反弹，紫金矿业（601899）等个股上涨，反映出市场对贵金属的关注度提升。 经济观察网赫克拉矿业(HL.N)近7天股价呈现显著波动。2026年2月4日，该股收盘报23.11美元，成交额 为5.90亿美元，较前一日减少18.06%。随后，2月5日股价大跌7.79%至21.31美元，成交额5.31亿美元；2 月6日反弹6.85%至22.77美元；2月9日上涨5.14%至23.94美元；2月10日下跌4.01%至22.98美元，成交额 降至3.30亿美元。近5个交易日累计跌幅为1.96%，年初至今涨幅为19.75%，区间成交活跃度有所下降。 当前股价较2月4日收盘价微跌0.56%，振幅达13.93%。 近期事件 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - As of February 9, 2026, 271 companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange have issued positive performance forecasts for 2025, with 168 expecting profit increases and 85 companies turning losses into profits [1] - In the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, 391 companies have disclosed their expected performance for 2025, with nearly 60% of these companies anticipating year-on-year net profit growth, including 39 companies expecting over 100% profit growth [1] - The year 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for the "14th Five-Year Plan," showcasing resilience and structural highlights in the operations of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1] Group 2: Nonferrous Metals Industry - The nonferrous metals industry is projected to see an industrial added value growth of 6.9% in 2025, surpassing the national average by 1.0 percentage points, with production of ten major nonferrous metals exceeding 80 million tons for the first time [2] - The total profit of large-scale enterprises in the nonferrous metals sector is expected to reach 528.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, marking a historical high [2] - Leading companies in the nonferrous metals sector are exhibiting a "volume-price resonance" characteristic, with significant increases in production and prices of key minerals like gold, copper, cobalt, and lithium contributing to profit growth [2] Group 3: Key Companies in Nonferrous Metals - Zijin Mining is expected to achieve a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62%, driven by rising prices of gold, silver, and copper [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum, the largest cobalt producer globally, anticipates a net profit of 20 to 20.8 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.80% to 53.71% [3] - Huayou Cobalt expects a net profit of 5.85 to 6.45 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 40.80% to 55.24%, benefiting from upstream resource production and recovering downstream material business [3] Group 4: Electronics Industry - The electronics industry is experiencing significant growth driven by AI, with smart hardware becoming a primary growth engine [4] - Huaqin Technology forecasts a revenue of 170 to 171.5 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54.7% to 56.1%, and a net profit of 4 to 4.05 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 36.7% to 38.4% [4] - Shengyi Technology anticipates a net profit of 3.25 to 3.45 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 87% to 98%, driven by strong demand in automotive electronics and AI servers [4] - Rockchip is expected to achieve a revenue of 4.387 to 4.427 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 1.023 to 1.103 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 71.97% to 85.42% [4]

在供应紧张成为市场常态的当下，选对赛道就成功了一半。 紫金矿业作为卡位铜、金、锂这三大兼具长期需求和供给刚性核心品种的巨头企业，确实很好契合了这一轮行业价值重 估的大逻辑。 2026年2月，高盛集结13家亚洲大宗商品巨头，召开了一场关乎未来5年资源格局的闭门会议。 会后，高盛很快发出研报点出，当下全球大宗商品市场已经进入结构性的供应约束时代，在资源品位下降、地缘政策干 预等因素叠加下，金铜锂这类的战略金属的价值重估已经开启。 其中，有"金铜双冠王"的之称的紫金矿业被高盛给出了A/H股双买入评级，目标价分别到50元/股、52港元/股，以表示明 确的长期看好。 那为什么高盛要长期看好紫金矿业？ 简单来看，就是看好在它在这场全球资源控制权的争夺战里，有着清晰的产能规划、很强的成本控制和超前的全球布 局，因而未来业绩稳健增长有很高的确定性。 01 先说黄金，作为地缘局势紧张、货币通胀、去美元化浪潮下的硬通货，黄金的长期看涨逻辑堪称扎实： 一方面，全球央行购金潮持续发酵，且95%的央行计划未来12个月继续增持，黄金成为各国"去美元化"的核心工具； 另一方面，2026年全球地缘格局持续紧张，即便美债实际收益率、美元指数出 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has initiated a long-term bullish outlook on Zijin Mining, citing its clear capacity planning, strong cost control, and proactive global layout as key factors for stable future growth in the context of a structural supply constraint era in the global commodity market [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global commodity market is entering a structural supply constraint era due to declining resource grades and geopolitical interventions, leading to a revaluation of strategic metals like gold, copper, and lithium [3][4]. - Gold is viewed as a solid long-term investment due to ongoing central bank purchases, with 95% of central banks planning to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months, making it a core tool for "de-dollarization" [5]. - Forecasts for gold prices in 2026 have been raised by major institutions, with Goldman Sachs projecting $5,400 per ounce, while JPMorgan and UBS have set targets of $6,200 to $6,300 per ounce [6]. Group 2: Copper and Lithium Outlook - The global copper deficit is expected to reach 330,000 tons by 2026, driven by supply constraints from major producing countries and increasing demand from the renewable energy and AI sectors [7]. - Lithium demand is projected to surge due to the growth of energy storage and electric vehicles, with a market gap of approximately 90,000 tons anticipated in 2026 [9]. Group 3: Zijin Mining's Strategic Position - Zijin Mining is strategically positioned in the copper, gold, and lithium markets, with ambitious production targets for 2026: 1.2 million tons of copper (up 110,000 tons YoY), 105 tons of gold (up 15 tons YoY), and 120,000 tons of lithium (five times 2025's output) [9][10]. - The company has initiated aggressive capacity expansion plans, focusing on resource-rich regions in Africa and Central Asia, ensuring a strong foothold in core resources [10]. Group 4: Cost Control and Efficiency - Zijin Mining has demonstrated superior cost control, with cash costs for copper at approximately 40,000 to 60,000 yuan per ton, which is 15% lower than the industry average [14]. - The company's gold production costs are around $1,000 per ounce, 30% lower than the industry average, showcasing its efficiency in operations [14]. Group 5: Financial Performance and Future Projections - Zijin Mining is expected to achieve a return on equity (ROE) of 36% by 2026, with a projected net profit of approximately 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 59% to 62% [16]. - The company has set ambitious production goals for 2028, aiming for 130 to 140 tons of gold and 270,000 to 320,000 tons of lithium, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the coming years [17].

Group 1 - The top 20 stocks with significant capital inflow as of February 11 include Northern Rare Earth (1.499 billion), Greeenmei (1.426 billion), and Zijin Mining (0.910 billion) [1] - Northern Rare Earth experienced a price increase of 5.02%, while Greeenmei saw a rise of 9.95% [2] - Other notable stocks with substantial inflows include Zai Sheng Technology (0.816 billion) and Zhongtung High-tech (0.736 billion), both showing a price increase of 10% [2][3] Group 2 - The sectors represented among the top inflow stocks include small metals, energy metals, and glass fiber [2] - Companies like Huayou Cobalt and Lianhua Holdings also reported significant inflows of 0.531 billion and 0.513 billion respectively, with price increases of 5.45% and 9.95% [2] - International Composite Materials led with a remarkable price increase of 20.04% alongside an inflow of 0.428 billion [3]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant capital inflows into various stocks, highlighting potential investment opportunities in specific sectors such as energy metals, rare metals, and technology [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Capital Inflows - The top stock with capital inflow is Greeenmei, attracting 1.312 billion yuan with a price increase of 9.84% [2] - Northern Rare Earth follows closely with 1.305 billion yuan inflow and a 4.94% rise [2] - Zijin Mining received 0.809 billion yuan with a 1.6% increase [2] - Zaiseng Technology saw a capital inflow of 0.763 billion yuan, marking a 10% rise [2] - Wangsu Technology attracted 0.701 billion yuan with a notable increase of 10.22% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The energy metals sector is represented by Greeenmei and Huayou Cobalt, both showing strong capital inflows and positive price movements [2] - The rare metals sector includes Northern Rare Earth and Zhongtung High-tech, both experiencing significant inflows and price increases [2] - The technology sector is highlighted by Wangsu Technology and Zaiseng Technology, both of which have seen substantial capital inflows and notable price gains [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the gold industry stocks are experiencing a strong rebound, with significant increases in the stock prices of major companies in the sector, indicating a positive market sentiment towards gold investments [1][2]. - As of February 11, 2026, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 2.97%, with key stocks such as Zijin Mining International and WanGuo Gold Group increasing by 8.48% and 8.45% respectively [1]. - The gold stocks ETF (159322) also saw a rise of 3.16%, closing at 2.09 yuan, reflecting the overall positive trend in the gold market [1]. Group 2 - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index comprises 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, which collectively represent the performance of the gold industry in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [1]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 61.69% of the total index, indicating a concentration of investment in a few key players within the gold sector [2].

www.ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 行业展望 联络人 作者 企业评级部 | 陈田田 010-66428877 | | --- | | ttchen@ccxi.com.cn | | 刘紫萱 010-66428877 | | zxliu@ccxi.com.cn | 其他联络人 王梦莹 010-66428877 mywang01@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 中国有色金属行业 中国有色金属行业展望，2026 年 2 月 在矿端供应偏紧、需求韧性较强的背景下，预计 2026 年有色金属行 业保持较高景气度，全球财政与货币政策调整、贸易摩擦、地缘政 治等因素将对行业发展形成扰动，基本金属价格中枢存在上行或高 位震荡预期；加工费低迷、行业竞争加剧令冶炼加工环节承压，行 业利润将进一步向资源自给率高、成本控制能力强的企业集中，整 体信用水平保持稳定。 中国有色金属行业展望为维持稳定，中诚信国际认为未来 12~18 个 月行业总体信用质量不会发生重大变化。 核心观点 1 2026 年 2 月 目录 核心观点 1 分析思路 2 行业基本面 2 行业财务表现 14 结论 22 附表 23 中诚信 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of gold prices and related stocks, with COMEX gold futures trading around $5,080 and London gold at approximately $5,060 [1] - Gold-related ETFs have shown significant gains, with the 华夏 Gold ETF (518850) up 0.61%, the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) up 3.16%, and the Gold Stocks ETF (159562) up 3.41%, indicating a positive market sentiment towards gold investments [1] - Six gold-listed companies, including Zijin Mining and Zhongjin Gold, have released earnings forecasts for 2025, with Zijin Mining expecting a net profit increase of 59%-62% year-on-year, and Zhongjin Gold projecting a Q4 net profit growth of 14%-75% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2 - The 华夏 Gold ETF (518850) and Gold Stocks ETF (159562) have a combined management and custody fee of 0.2%, which is among the lowest in their category, making it more cost-effective for investors to participate in the gold market [2]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with companies like Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, and Northern Rare Earth seeing significant stock price increases of 7.98%, 6.72%, and 6.34% respectively, contributing to a nearly 3% rise in the Tianhong Non-ferrous Metal ETF (159157) [1] - The Tianhong Non-ferrous Metal ETF has attracted substantial capital inflow, with a total of 890 million shares purchased in a single day and a cumulative net inflow of 614 million yuan over three days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The ETF covers a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, and rare earths, allowing it to capture various market cycles effectively [1] Group 2 - On February 10, prices for mainstream rare earth products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxides have risen due to tight supply conditions and strong demand from downstream buyers [2] - The non-ferrous sector is expected to perform well in 2025, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum projected to see net profit increases of over 60% and 50% respectively, while Shenghe Resources and Huayu Mining are expected to see even higher profit growth [2] - Following price adjustments by tungsten companies, Zhangyuan Tungsten has also raised its long-term procurement prices for black and white tungsten concentrates by 28.1% [2] - The U.S. has initiated a $12 billion strategic metal reserve plan, and the Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association has suggested commercial interest subsidies for copper and copper concentrates to enhance resource value [2]