Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for the stock to outperform the market by more than 20% over the next six months [8][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51.8 billion yuan in 2025, with total operating revenue of 349.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15% [4]. - The production of copper and gold has increased significantly, with copper production exceeding 1 million tons and gold production reaching 90 tons in 2025, supported by high prices [5]. - The company plans to acquire Chifeng Gold, enhancing its position in the gold sector, with a strategic investment agreement signed for a significant share acquisition [7]. - Profit forecasts for 2026-2028 suggest a steady increase in net profit, with estimates of 77.8 billion yuan, 88.4 billion yuan, and 91.3 billion yuan respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 50%, 14%, and 3% [8]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported a total profit of 80.8 billion yuan, a 68% increase year-on-year, and operating cash flow of 75.4 billion yuan, up 54% [4]. - The company's unit sales costs for gold and copper have risen slightly, attributed to various operational factors, but are expected to stabilize as production improves [6]. - The company’s financial metrics show a projected PE ratio of 11.21 for 2026, decreasing to 9.55 by 2028, indicating improving valuation [8][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 2.78%, ranking first among all primary industries, with energy metals up 13.38% and industrial metals up 1.37% [14][1] - The precious metals market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, with the Turkish central bank's gold sales exacerbating market volatility [4][48] - Industrial metals prices rebounded as signals of US-Iran negotiations emerged, alleviating previous panic [28][27] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.09%, while the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 2.78%, outperforming the index by 3.87 percentage points [14] - Among the sub-sectors, energy metals and small metals performed well, while precious metals faced declines [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices increased with LME copper at $12,141 per ton (up 2.59%) and SHFE copper at ¥95,930 per ton (up 1.26%). Domestic smelting plant repairs led to a rapid decline in social inventory, down 14.86% to 519,500 tons [32][2] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose to $3,285 per ton (up 2.90%), while SHFE aluminum fell to ¥23,935 per ton (down 0.35%). Supply risks increased due to attacks on facilities in Bahrain and the UAE [38][39] - **Zinc**: Prices rose with LME zinc at $3,107 per ton (up 1.65%) and SHFE zinc at ¥23,380 per ton (up 1.94%). Both LME and SHFE inventories decreased [41] - **Tin**: LME tin prices increased to $46,000 per ton (up 7.38%) and SHFE tin to ¥362,460 per ton (up 5.83%) due to improved downstream demand [45] Precious Metals - Gold prices fell slightly, with COMEX gold at $4,489.70 per ounce (down 0.05%) and SHFE gold at ¥998.66 per gram (down 3.90%). The market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate hike expectations [48][4] - The Turkish central bank sold 58.4 tons of gold, impacting market stability [48] - Recent geopolitical tensions have led to a simultaneous rise in gold and oil prices, indicating a return of gold's inflation-hedging and safe-haven attributes [49]

Overall Research - In March, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a general pullback, with significant differentiation across sectors. The A-share market saw the ChiNext index decline by 0.4%, while the Sci-Tech 50 index fell by 12.6%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 4.6%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 6.3% [1][2]. A-share Insights - Chinese assets are expected to show internal stability and potential for mid-term upward movement. Despite facing short-term risks from oil price fluctuations and declining risk appetite, the domestic market's high energy self-sufficiency provides some resistance to rising external energy prices. Historically, domestic exports tend to benefit from increased external uncertainties, indicating a stable supply chain [1]. Sector Recommendations - Focus on sectors that have previously experienced significant declines, those benefiting from rising commodity prices, and industries with potential for exceeding performance expectations. The report highlights resource products, essential consumption, hard technology, and government investment-related sectors as key areas of interest [2]. Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is positioned for resilience, with the OpenClaw framework redefining the AI industry narrative. The performance of leading AI companies in the US, such as Nvidia and Google, supports a robust fundamental backdrop for a rebound in Hong Kong stocks. The market is experiencing a convergence of three favorable factors: clear industry prosperity, improving sentiment as geopolitical concerns ease, and strong capital support, with net inflows of 63.2 billion HKD as of March 27 [3]. Investment Focus - The report recommends prioritizing investments in the technology sector, particularly through Hong Kong technology ETFs, to capitalize on the overall rebound. Specific focus should be on companies that are rapidly commercializing AI and have stable cash flows and low valuations [3]. A-share Stock Recommendations - The recommended A-share stocks for April 2026 include: - Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创) - Communication - Teruid (特锐德) - Power Equipment - Jereh (杰瑞股份) - Machinery - Nanjing Bank (南京银行) - Banking - Zijin Mining (紫金矿业) - Non-ferrous Metals - China Petroleum (中国石油) - Oil and Petrochemicals - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (中国海油) - Oil and Petrochemicals - Jinjiang Hotels (锦江酒店) - Social Services - Huaneng International (华能国际) - Utilities - Haier Smart Home (海尔智家) - Home Appliances [4][6]. Hong Kong Stock Recommendations - The recommended Hong Kong stocks for April 2026 include: - Hon Teng Precision (鸿腾精密) - Communication - Huiju Technology (汇聚科技) - Power Equipment - Alibaba (阿里巴巴-W) - Retail [4][7].

Market Overview - The domestic market enters the earnings season in April, with ongoing overseas disturbances potentially balancing market styles[3] - Key focus areas include Middle Eastern geopolitical disturbances affecting oil prices and fluctuating inflation expectations[3] Investment Strategy - The strategy emphasizes three main lines: 1. Energy security, focusing on traditional energy price increases and new energy directions due to potential replenishment demand[3] 2. Technology, particularly AI infrastructure, including power, storage, and computing sectors[3] 3. Rebound of previously oversold sectors such as precious metals and commercial aerospace[3] Recommended Stocks - Key recommended sectors and stocks include: - Metals: Zijin Mining - Chemicals: Yara International - Petrochemicals: Shouhua Gas - Power: Longyuan Power H - Coal: Yancoal Energy - New Energy: Jiayuan Technology - Banking: Hangzhou Bank - Agriculture: Dekang Agriculture - Electronics: Zhaoyi Innovation - Communication: Zhongji Xuchuang[6] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations, with potential slow job growth and reduced market demand[34] - Significant changes in individual stock fundamentals could impact performance[34] Earnings Forecasts - Forecasted earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key stocks: - Zijin Mining: EPS of 3.10 in 2026, PE of 10.5[28] - Yara International: EPS of 4.24 in 2026, PE of 15.2[28] - Shouhua Gas: EPS of 1.42 in 2026, PE of 16.7[28] - Longyuan Power H: EPS of 0.72 in 2026, PE of 9.5[28] - Yancoal Energy: EPS of 1.23 in 2026, PE of 16.5[28] - Jiayuan Technology: EPS of 1.90 in 2026, PE of 21.9[28] - Hangzhou Bank: EPS of 2.84 in 2026, PE of 5.8[28] - Dekang Agriculture: EPS of 2.89 in 2026, PE of 20.3[28] - Zhaoyi Innovation: EPS of 8.62 in 2026, PE of 30.0[28] - Zhongji Xuchuang: EPS of 17.40 in 2026, PE of 34.4[28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global lithium resources are near a tight balance. With the expansion of the demand base, the available inventory days will show a downward trend, and the lithium price center should rise marginally [105][116]. - In Q2 2026, both supply and demand of lithium carbonate will increase. It is still expected to reduce inventory, but the reduction amplitude may decline compared to Q1. In Q3, if the supply from Zimbabwe and Jianxiaowo resumes, inventory may accumulate, but inventory reduction is expected again at the end of the year due to export rush [105][116]. - The price of lithium carbonate in Q2 2026 may fluctuate widely between 125,000 - 250,000 yuan/ton, with a center around 140,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after a correction [116]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q4 2025, the explosion of energy - storage demand and the less - than - expected resumption of production at Jianxiaowo drove the rapid increase of lithium carbonate prices. In Q1 2026, the market continued to rise sharply and then entered a wide - range shock [7]. - In early and mid - January 2026, due to multiple factors such as Trump's attack on Venezuela, cathode material manufacturers' joint production cut to support prices, the implementation of the export tax - rebate cancellation policy, and the resurgence of the Jiangxi mining license issue, the market price soared from 125,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to a high of 189,000 yuan/ton, a 51% increase [7]. - From mid - to late January to early February 2026, due to exchange macro - regulation and Trump's nomination of Wash, which triggered concerns about balance - sheet reduction, the market price dropped to a minimum of 124,000 yuan/ton by early February, a 34% decline [7]. - After the Spring Festival to late February 2026, downstream demand recovered after the Spring Festival, and SMM inventory decreased significantly for several consecutive weeks. On February 25th, Zimbabwe announced a suspension of all lithium ore exports, and the next day the market price jumped up, reaching a maximum of 188,000 yuan/ton, with a 52% increase in this stage [7]. - Since late February 2026, after the US - Israel's strike on Iran on February 28th and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the non - ferrous metals sector fell collectively. Subsequently, the market price fluctuated widely between 140,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton. Recently, the continuous postponement of Zimbabwe's resumption time has again raised market concerns about supply [7]. 3.2 Supply Analysis 3.2.1 Global Lithium Resource Production - In 2025, the global lithium resource production was about 1.675 million tons LCE. In 2026, it is expected to be about 2.207 million tons LCE, with an increase of 532,000 tons [8][9]. - In Q1 - Q4 2026, the global lithium resource production is expected to be 478,000 tons, 527,000 tons, 590,000 tons, and 613,000 tons LCE respectively [8]. 3.2.2 Regional Supply - **Australia**: The annual production of Australian mines will increase by 60,000 tons to 520,000 tons LCE. Some mines have adjusted their production guidance upwards, while some mines are currently shut down or plan to restart [8][10][12]. - **America**: The annual production of American spodumene will increase by 11,000 tons to 84,000 tons LCE, and the annual production of American salt lakes will increase by 84,000 tons to 510,000 tons LCE [8][9][15]. - **Africa**: The annual production in Africa will increase by 140,000 tons to 380,000 tons LCE. The main increments come from pre - built mines, and some new mines are planned to be put into production [8][9][16]. - **China**: The annual production of Chinese spodumene will increase by 55,000 tons to 132,000 tons LCE, the annual production of Chinese salt lakes will increase by 100,000 tons to 260,000 tons LCE, and the annual production of Chinese mica will increase by 50,000 tons to 195,000 tons LCE [8][9][24]. 3.2.3 Supply Disruptions - On February 25th, Zimbabwe announced a suspension of all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports. It is expected to affect the monthly supply by 12,000 tons LCE, and the resumption time is still to be determined [22]. 3.3 Demand Analysis 3.3.1 New Energy Vehicle Market - **China**: In 2025, the domestic sales of Chinese passenger cars were 12.996 million, with a penetration rate of 54%. In 2026, it is expected to be 13.37 million, with a penetration rate peak of 65%. The domestic sales of Chinese commercial vehicles were 863,100 in 2025, and it is expected to be 1.232 million in 2026, with a penetration rate peak of 47% [42][46]. - **Europe**: It is expected that the high - growth trend in 2026 will continue, with a year - on - year increase of 30% to 5.27 million vehicles [54]. - **North America**: It is estimated that the sales of new energy vehicles in North America will decline by 10% to 1.57 million vehicles in 2026 [55]. 3.3.2 Energy - Storage Market - **China**: In 2024 - 2025, the winning bids for new energy storage in China were 171 GWh and 420 GWh respectively, with year - on - year increases of 52% and 145%. In 2025, the new installed capacity was 197 GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 84%. In 2026, it is expected to continue to grow [68]. - **USA**: In 2025, the new installed capacity of energy storage in the US was 50.99 GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 40%. It is expected to increase by 27% and 3% in 2026 - 2027 [73]. - **Europe**: In 2025, the new installed capacity of electrical energy storage in Europe was 27 GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 45%. It is expected to increase by 46% and 42% in 2026 - 2027 [73]. 3.3.3 Cathode Material and Cell Market - In January - February 2026, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 745,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55%; the production of ternary cathode materials was 152,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 48% [86]. - In January - February 2026, the production of power cells was 222 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 31%; the production of energy - storage cells was 119 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 91% [86]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - **Overseas**: The inventory days of Australian mines have dropped to about 1 month [91]. - **Domestic**: As of the end of February, the lithium ore inventory of domestic sample lithium salt plants was 114,000 tons LCE, with inventory days of 1.4 months, and the mine inventory was only 8,000 tons LCE. The inventory of domestic spodumene is about 140,000 tons LCE, and the inventory days have dropped to about 2 months [91]. - **Market Inventory**: The overall/upstream/downstream/mid - stream SMM inventory as of March 26th was 99,000/17,000/46,000/36,000 tons respectively, with inventory days of 27.9/4.9/13.1/10 days respectively. There is also off - balance - sheet inventory, but its magnitude has a large variance [92]. 3.5 Profit Analysis - For new energy vehicle enterprises, when the lithium carbonate price rises to 206,800 yuan/ton, the net profit of leading new energy vehicle enterprises will reach zero. High costs may lead to negative demand feedback in the long run [111][112]. - For the energy - storage market, after the implementation of the capacity - price mechanism policy, taking Shanxi Province as an example, the internal rate of return (IRR) of energy storage can reach 7.85%. If the energy storage only needs to meet the minimum rate of return of 6.5%, the acceptable increase in the cell price is 0.05 yuan/Wh, and the acceptable increase in the lithium carbonate price is 100,000 yuan/ton [115].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 44.40 CNY [5][11][21] Core Insights - In 2025, the company achieved a record net profit attributable to shareholders of 51.77 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 61.55%. The adjusted net profit was 50.72 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 60.05% [11][12] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a net profit of 13.91 billion CNY, up 80.86% year-on-year, indicating strong operational performance despite a slight quarter-on-quarter decline [11][12] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from rising gold and copper prices, with significant production increases in gold, copper, and lithium [2][11] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 349.08 billion CNY, a 15% increase from 2024, with net profit expected to reach 51.77 billion CNY [4][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 and 2027 are adjusted to 2.96 CNY and 3.49 CNY, respectively, with a new EPS forecast for 2028 at 3.97 CNY [11][14] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 27.9% in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 16.68 [4][11] Production and Growth Projections - The company aims to produce 105 tons of gold in 2026 and plans to reach 130-140 tons by 2028, with key projects contributing to this growth [11][12] - Copper production targets are set at 1.2 million tons for 2026 and 1.5-1.6 million tons for 2028, supported by expansions in major mining projects [11][12] - Lithium production is entering a scaling phase, with significant growth expected from new projects starting in 2026 [11][12] Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a 52-week price range of 15.41 to 43.45 CNY, with a total market capitalization of 871.64 billion CNY [6][11] - The stock has experienced an absolute increase of 85% over the past 12 months, outperforming the market index [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the trading activities in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, focusing on the top traded stocks and sectors, as well as the performance of ETFs and significant capital flows in various sectors [1][3][6]. Group 1: Stock Market Trading - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 246.27 billion, with Zijin Mining and CATL leading in trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets respectively [1]. - The top ten stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Connect included Zijin Mining (19.26 billion), China Aluminum (16.76 billion), and Zhaoyi Innovation (16.23 billion) [4]. - The top ten stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Connect included CATL (32.20 billion), Xinyi Technology (25.48 billion), and Zhongji Xuchuang (20.45 billion) [5]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The communication sector saw the highest net inflow of capital, amounting to 30.80 billion, with a net inflow rate of 2.63% [7]. - Other sectors with significant net inflows included agriculture and defense, while sectors like electric power and photovoltaic experienced notable outflows [6][8]. Group 3: ETF Trading - The top traded ETF was the Gold ETF from Huaan, with a trading volume of 10.05 billion, reflecting a 42.05% increase from the previous trading day [13]. - The ETF with the highest increase in trading volume compared to the previous day was the S&P Biotechnology ETF from Jiashi, which saw a 196.37% increase [14]. - The chemical ETF (159870) experienced a significant reduction in shares, decreasing by 8.965 billion shares last week, contributing to a total reduction of over 80 billion shares in the past five weeks [16]. Group 4: Institutional and Retail Activity - Institutional activity was noted with significant purchases in stocks like Shenjian Co. and Guanglian Aviation, with purchases of 1.35 billion and 1.28 billion respectively [17][18]. - Retail investors showed high activity, particularly in Pingtan Development, which saw substantial buying from multiple retail funds [19].

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 紫金礦業集團股份有限公司 呈交日期： 2026年3月30日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 否 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601899 | 說明 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | 事件 | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | | 佔有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about copper prices rising in 2026 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - As of March 27, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 95,930 CNY/ton, up 1.26% from March 20, and LME copper closed at 12,141 USD/ton, up 2.59% [1][17]. - The report highlights a significant decrease in non-commercial short positions in COMEX copper, reaching a near six-year low [1]. Supply and Demand Summary Supply - The TC spot price has reached a new low, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate [3]. - Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports increased by 12.2% to 575,000 tons as of March 27, 2026 [2][47]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper increased by 1,213 CNY/ton, indicating a tighter supply of scrap copper [2][55]. Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a slight increase in operating rates to 70.77% [4]. - Air conditioning production is expected to rebound in the second quarter of 2026, with year-on-year changes of -4.9%, +6.3%, and +10.5% for April, May, and June respectively [4][93]. - The report notes that the demand for copper in the power sector is significant, with copper wire consumption in this sector accounting for about 30.7% of total copper production [75]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, while also keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].

Summary of China Commodities Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call primarily discusses the commodities sector in China, particularly metals such as copper, aluminum, steel, and lithium, along with their demand trends and supply chain dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Insights Demand Trends - **Post-CNY Demand**: Demand has been softer than expected post-Chinese New Year (CNY), with many downstream sectors anticipating a flat outlook for 2026E in best-case scenarios. Despite elevated metal prices, end-user consumption has shown resilience [3][38]. - **Sector Performance**: Strong growth is noted in energy transition-related sectors, including grid investment, power equipment, and energy storage. However, sectors like automotive, appliances, and construction are experiencing weaker growth [3][22]. - **Construction Sector**: Infrastructure construction demand has surprised on the downside, with a potential stabilization expected in 2H26 due to policy support [3][44]. Supply Chain Dynamics - **Middle East Crisis Impact**: The crisis has contained direct export demand from China to the Middle East, with no significant disruption in energy supply or other supply chains. However, there are risks of disruption in chemicals as raw materials for manufacturers [4][57][58]. - **Chemical Supply Risks**: A major power cable manufacturer reported risks of production halts due to shortages of key chemical raw materials, exacerbated by the Middle East crisis [11][59]. Metal Substitutions - **Substitution Trends**: There is an ongoing trend of substituting copper with aluminum in various applications, including power cables and air conditioners. If full substitutions occur, it could lead to a 6% reduction in Chinese copper demand and an 8% reduction in aluminum demand [13][66][69]. - **Technical Feasibility**: While substitutions are technically feasible, challenges remain, particularly in air conditioning and energy storage systems [71][72]. Forecast Adjustments - **Revised Demand Estimates**: The forecast for China commodity demand growth in 2026E has been adjusted to a range of -2.8% to +0.7%, down from -1.3% to +2.0% in previous estimates. The largest cuts are in copper due to increased substitution and weak construction market conditions [14][63]. - **Aluminum Demand**: The estimate for aluminum demand growth remains mostly unchanged at +0.7% [63]. Additional Insights - **Investment in Energy Transition**: The state grid investment plan suggests a consistent growth rate of 8-9% CAGR, with significant investments in basic infrastructure and equipment upgrades [22][28]. - **Domestic Energy Storage Market**: The domestic energy storage market is expected to grow significantly, with a target of 300-450GW capacity by 2030, although the growth rate for copper demand may lag behind overall investment growth [31][35]. - **Inventory Levels**: Current inventory levels for various commodities are mostly within normal ranges, with some exceptions like appliances and property inventory being higher than normal due to slow sales [49][50][53]. Conclusion - The outlook for the commodities sector in China is characterized by a mix of resilience in certain sectors and challenges in others, particularly in construction and traditional metal demand. The ongoing trends in metal substitutions and the impact of geopolitical events like the Middle East crisis are critical factors influencing future demand and supply dynamics.