Summary of Zijin Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zijin Mining (Ticker: 2899 HK / 601899 CH) - **Industry**: Metals & Mining Key Financial Highlights - **2025 NPAT**: RMB 51.8 billion, a 62% year-on-year increase - **4Q25 NPAT**: RMB 13.9 billion, an 81% year-on-year increase but a 5% decrease quarter-on-quarter - **Revenue Growth**: 4Q25 revenue increased by 30% year-on-year, with a total revenue of RMB 349.1 billion for 2025, reflecting a 15% increase from 2024 - **Gross Margin**: Improved to 25.5% in 2025 from 18.5% in 2024, driven by higher commodity prices despite slight increases in unit costs for key products [2][3][20] Commodity Performance - **Gold Contribution**: Gold became the largest profit contributor in 2025, accounting for approximately 41% of gross profit, while copper contributed around 35% [2][18] - **Commodity Prices**: Realized average selling prices (ASP) for mined copper and gold rose by approximately 12% and 49% year-on-year, respectively [2] - **Output**: Copper output was 1.09 million tons in 2025, with gold output increasing by 23% year-on-year [2][18] Strategic Insights - **Market Dynamics**: Recent pullback in Zijin's shares attributed to weaker commodity prices and capital rotation out of pro-cyclical stocks amid geopolitical conflicts [3] - **Growth Opportunities**: Supply-side tightness due to mine disruptions, resource nationalism, and structural demand from renewables and AI/data centers present potential growth opportunities [3] - **Acquisition Strategy**: Planned acquisition of a controlling stake in Chifeng Gold expected to add approximately 14.7 tons of gold output in 2026, translating to an additional RMB 1.2 billion in earnings [3][25] Valuation and Target Price - **Target Prices**: - H-share target price remains at HKD 58.00, implying a 66.4% upside - A-share target price adjusted to RMB 50.00 from RMB 51.20, implying a 55.3% upside [5][29] - **Valuation Metrics**: - H-share PE multiple of 15.0x applied to 2027 EPS estimate of RMB 3.32 [28] - A-share PE multiple remains unchanged at 15.0x [29] Risks and Challenges - **Downside Risks**: - Delays in new capacity construction - Lower metal prices - Geopolitical conflicts affecting overseas operations - Overambitious M&A transactions impacting financials - Higher production costs due to inflation and declining ore grades [30] ESG and Operational Highlights - **ESG Metrics**: Clean energy usage increased significantly, with renewable energy generation reaching over 900 million kWh, up 68% year-on-year [25] - **Production Plans**: - Copper output guidance for 2026 is set at 1.20 million tons, with further expansions planned [18] - Lithium output expected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 128% from 2025 to 2028 [18] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: Maintain Buy rating on both H- and A-shares due to strong fundamentals, growth potential, and attractive valuation levels despite recent share price weakness [3][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of stagflation is deepening, leading to price fluctuations and consolidation. The market has adjusted from previous recessionary trades, with both precious and industrial metal prices showing significant recovery. As stagflation trading continues, excess returns from precious metals may gradually emerge, while industrial products are expected to remain in a range-bound oscillation [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The expectation of stagflation is deepening, with prices oscillating. Recent geopolitical tensions have led to rising oil prices, and the market is pricing in no interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026-2027. Precious and industrial metals are under pressure due to stagflation concerns, but there is potential for recovery if geopolitical tensions ease [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 1.45%, ranking third among all industries. The sector's performance was better than the overall market index [20][21] 3. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to show excess returns as stagflation expectations deepen. As of March 27, SHFE gold fell by 3.90% to 998.66 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold decreased by 1.84% to 4,492.00 USD per ounce. Central bank gold reserves in China increased to 7,422 million ounces, marking a continuous expansion for 16 months [14][30][56] 4. Copper - Under stagflation expectations, copper prices are expected to continue oscillating. As of March 27, SHFE copper rose by 1.26% to 95,930 CNY per ton, while LME copper increased by 2.23% to 12,195 USD per ton. Supply tightness is expected to continue due to ongoing strikes and production adjustments [17][28][69] 5. Aluminum - Supply disruptions continue to support aluminum prices. As of March 27, SHFE aluminum fell by 0.35% to 23,935 CNY per ton, while LME aluminum rose by 2.52% to 3,296 USD per ton. Domestic aluminum inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.83 million tons [16][87]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Views - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are leading to a significant contraction in the supply of electrolytic aluminum, with potential global reductions in supply estimated at 1.5 to 2 million tons per year [12][15]. - The demand for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is expected to remain strong due to inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks, with central banks likely to increase their gold holdings [6][26]. - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by rising inflation expectations and a strong dollar, which are exerting downward pressure on metal prices, particularly for copper and aluminum [11][12]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a slight decline of 0.05% to $4,489.70 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 2.89% to $69.77 per ounce [34]. - The gold-silver ratio fell by 2.86% to 64.35, indicating a shift in market dynamics [34]. - Central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks and inflation [32]. Base Metals - Copper prices increased by 2.59% to $12,141.00 per ton, while aluminum prices rose by 2.90% to $3,284.50 per ton [8]. - The supply of copper is under pressure due to domestic tightness and overseas surplus, with LME copper inventories increasing significantly [10]. - The geopolitical situation is expected to keep copper prices supported in the long term, despite short-term fluctuations [11]. Small Metals - The price of magnesium increased by 2.04% to 18,530 yuan per ton, driven by strong demand from downstream processing enterprises [19]. - Molybdenum prices are under pressure due to ongoing negotiations between supply and demand, with recent reductions in production impacting prices [20]. - Vanadium demand is expected to rise significantly due to the growth of vanadium battery installations, with a projected increase of 125.6% in new installations by 2025 [23][24]. Market Review - The overall market sentiment is cautious due to geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures, which are affecting investment decisions across various metal sectors [11][12]. - The aluminum market is particularly sensitive to supply disruptions, with significant reductions in production expected from the Middle East and other high-cost regions [15][28]. - Despite concerns over economic weakness, the demand for electrolytic aluminum remains robust due to its essential role in infrastructure and renewable energy sectors [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of stagflation is deepening, leading to price fluctuations and consolidation. The market has adjusted from previous recessionary trades, with both precious and industrial metal prices showing significant recovery. As stagflation trading continues, excess returns from precious metals may gradually emerge, while industrial products are expected to remain in a range-bound oscillation [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The expectation of stagflation is deepening, with prices consolidating. Recent geopolitical tensions have led to rising oil prices, and the market is pricing in no interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026-2027. Precious and industrial metals are under pressure due to financial attributes, but there is potential for recovery if geopolitical tensions ease [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 1.45%, ranking third among all industries. The sector outperformed the broader market indices [20][21] 3. Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure but may show excess returns as stagflation expectations deepen. As of March 27, SHFE gold fell by 3.90% to 998.66 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold decreased by 1.84% to 4,492.00 USD per ounce. Central bank gold reserves in China increased to 7,422 million ounces [14][30] 4. Copper - Copper prices are expected to remain oscillatory under stagflation expectations. As of March 27, SHFE copper rose by 1.26% to 95,930 CNY per ton, while LME copper increased by 2.23% to 12,195 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues, with global visible copper inventory at approximately 1.4348 million tons [17][73] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are supported by supply disruptions and inventory reductions. As of March 27, SHFE aluminum fell by 0.35% to 23,935 CNY per ton, while LME aluminum rose by 2.52% to 3,296 USD per ton. Domestic aluminum inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.83 million tons [16][87]

Market Overview - The A-share indices collectively declined during the week from March 23 to March 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.76%, the ChiNext Index down by 1.68%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Index down by 0.43% [1][2]. Stock Performance - A total of 7 stocks saw gains exceeding 40%, with Haike Xinyuan leading at a weekly increase of 51.02%. Other notable gainers included Lianxiang Co. (48.26%), Rongjie Co. (46.95%), and Huadian Liaoning Energy (43.61%) [3][4]. - Conversely, 30 stocks experienced declines over 20%, with Huada Technology leading the drop at 32.34%, followed by Zhonghuan Hailu (29.59%) and Shenhua Fa A (28.03%) [3][4]. Trading Activity - 47 stocks had a turnover rate exceeding 100%, with Shouhang New Energy at the top with a turnover rate of 236.08%, followed by Nabichuan (199.27%) and Jiuzhou Group (177.88%) [5][6]. - The majority of stocks with high turnover rates were from the electric equipment, public utilities, and basic chemicals sectors [5]. Capital Flow - The sectors that attracted significant capital inflow included non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and building materials, while the electronics sector faced a net outflow exceeding 250 billion yuan [8]. - Ganfeng Lithium received the highest net inflow of 27.20 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 18.15%. Other stocks with notable inflows included Demingli (15.88 billion yuan) and Yunnan Zhiye (14.20 billion yuan) [8][9]. Margin Trading - A total of 1399 stocks received net margin purchases, with 582 stocks having net purchases exceeding 10 million yuan. Luxshare Precision topped the list with a net purchase of 10.94 billion yuan, while NIO and Zijin Mining faced significant net sell-offs [10][11]. Institutional Research - During the week, 163 listed companies were researched by institutions, with Sanhua Intelligent Control receiving the most attention from 284 institutions. Other companies like Yuanjie Technology and Yuntianhua also attracted significant institutional interest [12][14]. Analyst Ratings - Several companies received new ratings from analysts, including Kaige Precision Machinery with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 207.84 yuan, and Daqin Railway with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of 5.95 yuan [15][16].

Group 1: Metal Sector Insights - Major profit forecasts for Zijin Mining show a net profit of CNY 823.16 million in 2026, with a PE ratio of 10.31[10] - China Hongqiao is expected to achieve a net profit of CNY 324.61 million in 2026, with a PE ratio of 9.37[10] - Dazhong Mining's projected net profit for 2026 is CNY 17.07 million, with a significantly high PE ratio of 38.50[10] Group 2: Lithium Industry Outlook - The lithium industry is expected to see a supply-demand turning point between 2026 and 2027, driven by a decline in supply growth and increased demand from energy storage[15] - Domestic lithium demand is projected to reach 131.10 million tons LCE by 2030, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23%[15] - The total lithium industry demand is forecasted to be 412.99 million tons LCE by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 18%[15] Group 3: Transportation Sector Analysis - The oil transportation sector is anticipated to experience a "spring effect" due to inventory replenishment needs, requiring an additional 57 VLCCs over the next year[41] - The effective supply of VLCCs is projected to be 54 by 2027, which may lead to increased prices once the Strait of Hormuz is navigable again[41] Group 4: Chemical and Power Sector Projections - Wanhua Chemical is expected to generate a net profit of CNY 186.92 million in 2026, with a PE ratio of 13.40[10] - Longyuan Power's projected net profit for 2026 is CNY 61.52 million, with a PE ratio of 18.68[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The geopolitical situation remains tense, with safe-haven and stagflation trading continuing to be the core of gold trading. In the short term, the Middle East situation combined with fluctuating expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts presents a pattern of easy rises and difficult declines. In the medium to long term, the uncertainty surrounding global tariff policies and geopolitical factors continues to support the long-term allocation value of gold [10][11] - For industrial metals, the report indicates that the supply of electrolytic copper is decreasing, while geopolitical disturbances are affecting the supply of electrolytic aluminum. Short-term copper prices are supported by a tight fundamental backdrop, while long-term expectations are bolstered by strong demand from the new energy sector [13][14] - In the new energy metals sector, concerns over tightening overseas raw material supplies are impacting supply, while the export of new energy vehicles is boosting demand expectations. Lithium prices are expected to continue rising if the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors maintain high growth [19][22] - The rare earth market is experiencing weak stability, with prices showing limited fluctuations but some products continuing a downward trend due to weak demand [23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The geopolitical situation is affecting gold trading, with a focus on safe-haven investments. Key stocks to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [12][10] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by a tight supply-demand balance, while aluminum prices are influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and geopolitical tensions. Key stocks include Zijin, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper [14][18] New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are rising due to supply concerns from Zimbabwe and strong demand from new energy vehicle exports. Key stocks include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianhua, and Yahua Chemical [19][22] Other Minor Metals - The rare earth market is experiencing weak demand, leading to price pressures. Key stocks include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten [23]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are leading to a significant contraction in the supply of electrolytic aluminum, with potential global production cuts estimated at 1.5 to 2 million tons per year, representing a 3% to 5% reduction in global supply [12][15][28] - The demand for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is expected to rise due to inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks, with central banks likely to increase their gold holdings as a hedge against de-dollarization [6][27][33] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a strong likelihood of continued high inflation, which may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates, thereby supporting gold prices in the long term [6][25] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a slight decline of 0.05% to $4,489.70 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 2.89% to $69.77 per ounce [35] - The gold-silver ratio decreased by 2.86% to 64.35, indicating a shift in market dynamics [35] - Central banks in various countries are expected to resume or increase their gold purchases, driven by geopolitical risks [33] Base Metals - Copper prices increased by 2.59% to $12,141.00 per ton, while aluminum prices rose by 2.90% to $3,284.50 per ton [8] - The supply of copper is under pressure due to domestic tightness and overseas surplus, with significant fluctuations in demand from downstream processing enterprises [10][11] - The aluminum market is facing supply constraints due to geopolitical tensions, with production risks in the Middle East and high energy costs impacting the industry [12][15][28] Minor Metals - The magnesium market is experiencing price increases due to strong demand from downstream processing enterprises and stable production levels [19] - Molybdenum prices are under pressure from upstream and downstream market dynamics, with ongoing production cuts affecting market stability [20][21] - Vanadium demand is expected to rise significantly due to the growth of vanadium battery installations, driven by energy storage needs [24][23]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 紫金礦業集團股份有限公司 呈交日期： 2026年3月27日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | | 否 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) 601899 | 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | 事件 | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 | 庫存股份變動 | | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | 已發行股份總 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][5]. Core Views - The company aims to become a "green high-tech first-class international mining group," with expectations for significant value enhancement driven by rising copper and gold prices. The projected net profit growth rates for 2026-2028 are +61%, +25%, and +21% respectively [1][4]. - In 2025, the company achieved record-high operating performance with revenues of RMB 349.1 billion, a 15% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of RMB 51.8 billion, reflecting a 62% year-on-year growth [2][2]. - The company has a strong resource base, with significant increases in gold and copper resources, and has completed several acquisitions that contribute to production and profit [2][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported revenues of RMB 349.1 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 51.8 billion, up 62% year-on-year, aligning with the company's profit forecast [2][2]. - The average prices for LME copper and SHFE gold rose by 43% and 9% respectively in 2025 [2][2]. - The company’s gold production reached 90 tons, a 23% increase, while copper production was 1.09 million tons, a 2% increase [2][2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its resource reserves and production capacity by 2028, aiming for gold and copper production to rank in the top three globally [3][3]. - The projected production for key minerals by 2028 includes 130-140 tons of gold, 150-160 million tons of copper, and 27-32 thousand tons of lithium carbonate equivalent [3][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2026-2028 are RMB 83.2 billion, RMB 104.1 billion, and RMB 126.1 billion respectively, with adjustments based on expected production increases [4][4]. - The target valuation for the company is set at a PE ratio of 13-16x for 2026, with target prices of RMB 44.93 and HKD 48.50 for A and H shares respectively [4][4].