Core Insights - Chongqing Bank has reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, achieving operating income of 11.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit of 4.879 billion yuan, up 10.19% [1][3] - The bank's total assets reached 1.02 trillion yuan by the end of September 2025, marking a 19.39% increase from the end of the previous year [1][4] - Despite the growth in income and assets, the bank faced regulatory penalties for inadequate loan checks and imprudent investment practices, resulting in a fine of 2.2 million yuan [2][9] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Chongqing Bank's operating income was 4.081 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.38% year-on-year growth, while net profit for the same period was 1.69 billion yuan, up 20.54% [3][4] - The bank's net interest income for the first three quarters was 9.12 billion yuan, a 15.22% increase compared to the previous year [6] - Non-interest income showed mixed results, with investment income rising by 24.89% to 2.34 billion yuan, but net commission income fell by 27.6% to 559 million yuan [8] Asset Quality and Risks - As of September 2025, the bank's non-performing loan (NPL) balance was 5.894 billion yuan, with an NPL ratio of 1.14%, a slight decrease from the previous year [4][10] - The bank's retail NPLs increased, with the NPL ratio for personal loans rising to 3.01% by June 2025 [10] - Regulatory scrutiny highlighted concerns over the bank's risk management practices, particularly regarding loan checks and investment prudence, which could pose long-term risks despite short-term performance [9] Capital Adequacy - By the end of September 2025, Chongqing Bank's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 8.57%, down 1.31 percentage points from the previous year [10] - The bank's rapid asset growth has led to a noticeable consumption of capital, raising concerns about its long-term capital adequacy [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook despite challenges in the gold market in 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The gold market is expected to present both opportunities and challenges for banks, with a trend towards deepening precious metal business driven by central bank purchases [1][2]. - The demand for gold bars and coins has increased significantly, reflecting a growing need for gold as a hedge and store of value among residents [4]. - The establishment of a market-making system for gold trading is anticipated to enhance market liquidity and stability, positioning listed banks as key players [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy and Market Environment - As of September 2025, China's official gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces, marking an increase for 11 consecutive months [2]. - In Q2 2025, global central banks added 166 tons of gold to their reserves, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting further increases in the next 12 months [2]. - New policies allowing insurance funds to invest in gold are expected to create new opportunities for banks to provide services to insurance institutions, enhancing their intermediary income [2]. 2. Business Dynamics and Revenue Contribution - In the first half of 2025, China's gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.54%, with significant growth in gold bar and coin consumption by 23.69% [4]. - The decline in gold jewelry consumption is prompting banks to shift focus from traditional jewelry sales to investment-oriented precious metal businesses [4]. - The growth in investment demand for gold bars and coins is expected to stabilize income from investment-related businesses, enhancing the profitability of the precious metals segment for banks [4]. 3. Industry Trends - The report highlights a structural shift in gold consumption, with investment demand rising while jewelry demand declines, indicating a need for banks to adapt their business strategies [4]. - The performance of the banking sector is expected to benefit from expansionary policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with specific banks like Ningbo Bank and Jiangsu Bank recommended for investment due to positive fundamental changes [8]. 4. Key Data Tracking - The report includes various financial metrics, such as average daily trading volume and margin financing balances, which are essential for assessing market conditions [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" and is maintained [10] Core Insights - The A-share risk appetite has temporarily rebounded, with the banking index lagging behind, while H-shares of major banks have outperformed. The proportion of southbound holdings has increased, indicating a sustained interest in H-shares due to their undervaluation and high dividend characteristics [2][9] - The central bank's report for Q3 2025 indicates a negative growth rate for real estate loans, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%. This marks the first negative growth in real estate development loans since Q2 2022, primarily driven by weak sales [6][7][39] - The performance of banks that have disclosed their Q3 results shows an upward trend in profit growth, with interest income rebounding. Chongqing Bank reported a surprising growth of over 10% in the first three quarters [8][49] Summary by Sections Banking Index Performance - The banking index rose by 1.3% this week, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices, which saw excess returns of -1.9% and -6.7% respectively. Agricultural Bank of China H-shares led the gains with a 7.9% increase, while the A/H share growth for Agricultural Bank reached 56.4% and 43.6% respectively [2][9][18] Loan Trends - The central bank's Q3 report shows that the proportion of corporate loans has increased, while industrial medium- and long-term loan growth has declined to 9.7%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous quarter. Real estate loans have turned negative, with development loans down 1.3% year-on-year, reflecting weak sales [6][38][39] - Personal housing loans also saw a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, with a net decrease of 292.1 billion yuan in Q3, indicating ongoing weakness in the housing market [7][39] Bank Earnings Reports - As of October 24, banks such as Huaxia Bank, Ping An Bank, and Chongqing Bank have reported their Q3 earnings. Chongqing Bank's performance exceeded expectations with over 10% growth, while Huaxia and Ping An faced challenges due to non-interest income declines [8][49][51] Market Dynamics - The market dynamics indicate a recovery in trading volumes and turnover rates for bank stocks, with a notable increase in the turnover rate for joint-stock banks. The overall trading environment for bank stocks is expected to improve as previous funding pressures ease [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share listed banks are expected to show overall revenue and net profit growth or a narrowing decline in their Q3 2025 reports, with improved asset quality across the board [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Four A-share listed banks, including Chongqing Bank and Wuxi Bank, reported revenue and net profit growth exceeding 10% and 3% respectively in the first three quarters of the year [2]. - Ping An Bank's net profit for the first three quarters was 38.339 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.5%, but the decline was narrower compared to the first half of the year [2]. - Huaxia Bank reported a net profit of 17.982 billion yuan for the first three quarters, down 2.86% year-on-year, with a decline of 5.09 percentage points compared to the first half [2]. Group 2: Asset Quality - Asset quality has improved for most banks, with Chongqing Bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at 1.14%, down 0.11 percentage points from the end of the previous year [3]. - Huaxia Bank's NPL ratio was 1.58%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points, while Ping An Bank's NPL ratio stood at 1.05%, down 0.01 percentage points [3]. Group 3: Interest Margin and Revenue - Analysts predict that the net interest margin (NIM) decline will narrow, supporting positive growth in bank performance [4]. - The overall revenue and net profit for A-share listed banks are expected to grow by 0.4% and 1.1% year-on-year respectively for the first three quarters of 2025 [4]. - The improvement in net interest income and non-interest income, particularly from fees and commissions, is anticipated to continue [4][5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The banking sector is viewed positively by multiple institutions, with expectations of steady performance and growth potential in the context of a recovering economy [5]. - As of October 24, 2023, 37 bank stocks have shown positive growth since the beginning of the year, with some exceeding 30% [5].

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Bank reported a strong performance in its Q3 2025 results, with revenue and net profit showing significant year-on-year growth, supported by increased interest income and improved asset quality [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, Chongqing Bank achieved revenue of 11.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with growth accelerating by 3.4 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025 [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.88 billion yuan, up 10.2% year-on-year, with an increase of 4.8 percentage points from the first half of 2025 [1]. - Total assets at the end of September 2025 amounted to 1,022.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.1% [1]. Interest Income and Non-Interest Income - Net interest income for the first nine months of 2025 rose by 15.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate improving by 3.0 percentage points from the first half of 2025, driven by a 19.6% increase in interest-earning assets [1]. - Other non-interest income reached 2.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, with growth accelerating by 5.2 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025, benefiting from the realization of gains from OCI accounts [1]. Loan Growth - As of September 2025, the loan balance stood at 518.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, with corporate loans growing significantly due to the bank's focus on the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle and major national strategies [2]. - The growth rates for corporate loans, personal loans, and bill discounting were 29.8%, 2.8%, and -23.8% respectively [2]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio at the end of September 2025 was 1.14%, showing a decrease of 3 basis points from the first half of 2025 and 11 basis points from the end of the previous year, indicating ongoing improvement in asset quality [2]. Investment Outlook - Chongqing Bank is well-positioned to benefit from its strategic location and ongoing economic developments, with expectations for continued strong growth in net profit over the next few years [3]. - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.65 billion yuan, 6.07 billion yuan, and 6.37 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 10.3%, 7.5%, and 4.9% respectively [3].

上 市 公 司 2025 年 10 月 26 日 重庆银行 (601963) ——营收、利润均超预期，聚焦万亿规模新起点下的价值重估 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 10 月 24 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 10.17 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 11.75/8.26 | | 市净率 | 0.6 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 4.07 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 19,114 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,950.31/13,289.18 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 16.15 | | 资产负债率% | 93.55 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 3,475/1,879 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/1,579 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 10-24 11-24 12-24 01-24 02-24 03-24 04-24 05-24 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Chongqing Bank, with a target price of 13.17 CNY / 9.90 HKD [2][4]. Core Insights - Chongqing Bank reported a revenue of 11.74 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.879 billion CNY, up 10.19% year-on-year. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 4 basis points to 1.13%, while the provision coverage ratio remained stable at 248% [2][4]. - The bank's net interest income exceeded expectations, with a quarterly revenue of 4.081 billion CNY in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.38% [7]. - The asset quality improved, with the NPL ratio declining and the net profit growth outpacing revenue growth due to improved revenue streams [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: The bank's revenue growth is supported by strong demand for corporate loans in the Sichuan-Chongqing region, with a significant increase in net interest income [7]. - **Loan Performance**: Corporate loans saw a substantial increase, with new corporate loans amounting to 21.38 billion CNY in Q3 2025, while retail loan demand weakened [7]. - **Net Interest Margin**: The net interest margin stabilized and increased by 17 basis points to 1.40% in Q3 2025, driven by stable asset pricing and reduced funding costs [7]. - **Asset Quality**: The NPL ratio improved, with a decrease in the net generation rate of non-performing loans, indicating a reduction in credit risk [7]. Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected total revenue for 2025 is 14.758 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.9% [8]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 5.555 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting an 8.6% increase [8]. - **Key Ratios**: The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 6.36, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be 0.63 [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Bank is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The bank's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 grew by 10.40% and 10.42% year-on-year, respectively, with significant quarterly growth of 17.38% in revenue and 20.54% in net profit [1] - The bank's net interest income increased by 15.2% year-on-year, benefiting from accelerated asset expansion and improved net interest margin [2] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.14%, down 11 basis points from the beginning of the year [2] - The bank's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 53.9 billion, 57.3 billion, and 62.9 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, 6.4%, and 9.8% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Chongqing Bank achieved a total revenue of 117.4 billion yuan and a net profit of 48.8 billion yuan, both showing a year-on-year increase of over 10% [1] - The total assets reached 1.02 trillion yuan, with loans and deposits growing by 19.4% and 16.9% year-to-date, respectively [1] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.14%, indicating a positive trend in asset quality [2] - The provision coverage ratio stood at 248.1%, remaining stable compared to previous periods [2] Profitability and Valuation - The annualized net interest margin for the first three quarters was 1.32%, showing a slight improvement from the previous half [2] - The bank's price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.53x, 0.49x, and 0.46x, respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Bank is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Views - The bank has achieved a revenue of 11.74 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.88 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, both showing a year-on-year growth of approximately 10% [1]. - The bank's asset quality continues to improve, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.14% as of September 2025, down 11 basis points from the beginning of the year [2]. - The bank's net interest margin has stabilized and improved, with a year-to-date annualized net interest margin of 1.32%, reflecting a 3 basis points increase from the first half of the year [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the bank's total assets reached 1.02 trillion yuan, with total loans of 5.18 trillion yuan and total deposits of 5.54 trillion yuan, representing year-to-date growth of 19.4%, 18.3%, and 16.9% respectively [1]. - The bank's net interest income increased by 15.2% year-on-year, benefiting from accelerated asset expansion and improved net interest margin [1]. - The bank's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.39 billion yuan, 5.73 billion yuan, and 6.29 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, 6.4%, and 9.8% [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.53x, 0.49x, and 0.46x respectively [3][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.46 yuan, with a projected growth in net profit [6]. Asset Quality Indicators - The bank's provision coverage ratio remains stable at 248.1% as of September 2025, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [2]. - The bank's credit cost ratio is projected to decrease to 0.76% in 2025, reflecting ongoing improvements in asset quality [6]. Market Context - The bank operates in the Sichuan-Chongqing region, which is a key area for several national strategic initiatives, providing a solid foundation for the bank's growth [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to the company for the first time [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned in a key area of national strategy, benefiting from continuous improvement in its fundamentals [1]. - The company has effectively cleared its existing non-performing loans and shifted its lending focus primarily towards government-related sectors, resulting in a significant increase in the proportion of loans in these areas [2]. - The net interest margin has shown signs of improvement, contributing to enhanced profitability, with projections indicating continued growth in revenue and net profit over the next few years [3][32]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Chongqing Bank, established in 1996, has evolved into a significant player in the banking sector, with total assets reaching 983.4 billion yuan and total loans amounting to 498.6 billion yuan as of June 2025 [7]. Financial Performance - The bank's revenue is projected to grow from 13.21 billion yuan in 2023 to 17.77 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.1% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 4.93 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.29 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 9.8% [4]. - The bank's return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) are projected to stabilize around 0.59% and 10.7% respectively by 2027 [4]. Loan and Asset Quality - As of June 2025, the bank's loan portfolio is heavily weighted towards government-related sectors, with 54.5% of loans allocated to these areas, indicating a strategic shift in lending practices [2][36]. - The non-performing loan ratio stands at 1.17%, with a provision coverage ratio of 248.3%, reflecting a strong asset quality position compared to peers in the region [2][49]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The bank is well-positioned to benefit from the economic growth in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, which is expected to enhance its market share and profitability [1][14]. - The bank's loan market share in Chongqing is 76.4%, with significant presence in neighboring provinces, indicating a robust regional footprint [12]. Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The estimated fair price range for the company's stock in 2026 is between 12.3 and 14.4 yuan, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 19.3% to 39.7% from the current price of 10.3 yuan [68].