Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Hu Nong Commercial Bank indicates significant insider buying by top executives, reflecting confidence in the bank's future performance and aligning with a broader trend of regional banks experiencing similar increases in executive and institutional shareholdings [1]. Group 1: Executive Purchases - Five senior executives of Hu Nong Commercial Bank, including the president and several vice presidents, purchased a total of 259,100 shares from November 13 to November 17, 2025, at prices ranging from 9.02 to 9.08 yuan [1]. - This trend of executive share purchases is not isolated, as other regional banks such as Nanjing Bank, Wuxi Bank, and Suzhou Bank have also seen similar actions from their management teams [1]. Group 2: Institutional Purchases - Qingdao Bank reported that its major shareholder, Qingdao Guoxin Financial Holdings Group Co., Ltd., increased its holdings through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, raising its total stake to 15.42%, making it the largest shareholder of the bank [1]. - In addition, Su Nong Bank's executives plan to purchase at least 1.8 million yuan worth of A-shares within six months starting from November 11, 2025 [1]. - Qilu Bank disclosed that its management has already purchased approximately 3.15 million yuan worth of shares, achieving 90% of its planned increase since announcing its buyback plan in mid-September [1].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates a significant trend of long-term capital, represented by insurance funds, increasingly allocating to the banking sector, with a potential inflow space of approximately 600 billion yuan if 40% of new funds are allocated to bank stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Inflow and Allocation - The unprecedented low interest rate environment is driving incremental capital towards dividend sectors, with the banking sector offering superior value. The current banking index dividend yield is about 4.3%, significantly higher than the ten-year government bond yield, making it an attractive investment option [1]. - Assuming that 40% of the new capital is allocated to OCI and 40% to bank stocks, this could lead to a potential inflow of around 600 billion yuan. Additionally, public fund reforms are expected to increase capital allocation to underrepresented sectors, with bank stock holdings in public funds dropping to a near ten-year low of 1.74% in Q3 2025, suggesting an additional potential inflow of over 370 billion yuan if allocations align with the CSI 300 [2]. Group 2: Expected Changes in Banking Fundamentals - The central bank has explicitly stated its support for stabilizing net interest margins, linking this to the expansion of monetary policy's counter-cyclical adjustment space. It is anticipated that by 2026, bank interest margins may reverse their downward trend and show a slight year-on-year increase, with banks that can improve deposit costs expected to perform better than their peers [3]. - The importance of "high provisioning" is becoming more pronounced as banks' provisioning capacity is gradually consumed. While systemic risks from real estate and platforms may ease, risks in retail sectors still require provisioning. Focus should be on banks with low non-performing loans and high loan-to-deposit ratios, as well as those with clear asset quality improvements [3]. - Some small and medium-sized banks may face revenue growth challenges due to high base pressures in their capital market operations, with reduced non-interest income growth and declining financial investment yields [3]. Group 3: Capital Focus and Investment Recommendations - Bank capital is becoming a focal point, with banks that have strong internal capital generation or substantial reserves being better positioned for stable lending and dividends. External financing remains challenging, making convertible bonds a scarce resource [4]. - The banking sector is entering a new cycle of stable profitability, with long-term capital inflows ongoing. If the macro environment sees a gradual recovery in PPI and marginal increases in long-term interest rates, this will create favorable operating conditions for banks. Even under economic pressure, banks with clear risk thresholds and stable dividend expectations remain attractive dividend assets [5]. - The report recommends focusing on a dual strategy of "leading banks (state-owned and China Merchants Bank) as the foundation" and "bottom-tier joint-stock banks and quality city commercial banks as the performers." Leading banks are expected to see valuation recovery, while quality small and medium-sized banks with improving fundamentals are likely to exhibit stock price elasticity in response to economic recovery [5].

Market Overview - The city commercial bank sector experienced a decline of 0.75% on November 18, with Zhengzhou Bank leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3939.81, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13080.49, down 0.92% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Zhengzhou Bank's stock closed at 2.03, down 1.46% with a trading volume of 1.3032 million shares and a transaction value of 266 million [2] - Xiamen Bank closed at 7.13, down 1.38%, with a trading volume of 144,000 shares [2] - Nanjing Bank closed at 11.48, down 0.09%, with a trading volume of 385,400 shares [1] - The highest closing price was for Ningbo Bank at 28.70, down 0.35% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The city commercial bank sector saw a net outflow of 183 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 74.99 million [2] - The main capital inflow was observed in stocks like Nanjing Bank, which had a net inflow of 62.45 million from institutional investors [3] - Conversely, stocks like Xiamen Bank and Zhengzhou Bank experienced significant net outflows from institutional investors, amounting to 8.32 million and 4.80 million respectively [3]

Core Viewpoints - The mid-term dividend rush in the banking sector is nearing its end but is not yet finished, potentially extending until the end of November [4][11][26] - The four major banks have announced mid-term dividends earlier this year compared to last year, with the record date for dividends set for mid-December, which is nearly one month earlier than last year [7][11] - The recent rise in the banking sector is primarily driven by changes in market investment style, with mid-term dividends acting as a catalyst [4][11][26] Investment Strategy Post-Dividend Rush - After the mid-term dividend rush, the banking sector may experience short-term fluctuations, but it is unlikely that the overall trend has ended [5][14][26] - There are expected investment opportunities in the banking sector before the main spring rally is identified, suggesting that investors should overlook short-term volatility [5][16][26] - The demand for insurance funds and the need for asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment make stable bank stocks attractive [5][16][26] Stock Selection Recommendations - Focus on high-dividend, fundamentally strong stocks in the short term, while also considering quality stocks for potential upside [6][26] - Recommended stocks include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Merchants Bank for their stability, as well as Ningbo Bank and Chongqing Bank for their upward momentum [6][26] - Low-valuation banks such as Changsha Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank are also suggested for consideration [6][26] Market Performance Insights - The banking index has shown a cumulative increase of 7.7% from October 14 to November 14, 2025, with individual banks like ICBC and ABC showing significant gains [11][26] - The cumulative gains of the four major banks from December 2024 were 12.5%, 11.0%, 10.2%, and 10.0%, respectively, indicating a strong performance leading into the new year [7][11] Fundamental Analysis - The banking sector's fundamentals are expected to stabilize, with net interest margins showing signs of improvement [23][26] - The asset quality of listed banks is at its best level in recent years, with retail non-performing loans gradually being cleared [23][26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that listed banks have sold approximately 2 trillion yuan in bonds to realize floating profits from their available-for-sale (AC) accounts in the first three quarters of 2025 [13] - It is estimated that in Q4 2025, listed banks will need to sell about 900 billion yuan in bonds to support non-interest income [10] - The cumulative floating profit of listed banks' AC accounts is approximately 3.3 trillion yuan as of the end of H1 2025, accounting for 58.3% of the total revenue for the year 2024 [30] Summary by Sections Investment Growth - Since 2024, the investment growth rate of listed banks' AC accounts has consistently lagged behind the growth rate of financial investments, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5% in Q3 2025, which is 4.28 percentage points lower than that of financial investments [13][15] - The growth rates for different types of banks from Q2 2023 to Q2 2025 are as follows: state-owned banks 14.7%, joint-stock banks 2.8%, city commercial banks 9.7%, and rural commercial banks -3.8% [13] Bond Selling and Profit Realization - The report estimates that the floating profit realization ratio for listed banks' AC accounts in the first three quarters of 2025 is about 3.06%, with a bond selling scale of approximately 2.04 trillion yuan [36] - The selling proportions for different bank types are: state-owned banks 2.26%, joint-stock banks 5.29%, city commercial banks 5.57%, and rural commercial banks 9.65%, with rural commercial banks showing the highest selling intensity [36] Financial Performance - The floating profit from the sale of bonds in the first three quarters of 2025 is estimated to be 1,078 billion yuan, which represents 2.50% of the total revenue, an increase of 1.59 percentage points compared to 2024 [22][25] - The breakdown of floating profit realization ratios by bank type is as follows: state-owned banks 2.24%, joint-stock banks 2.44%, city commercial banks 3.79%, and rural commercial banks 5.52% [22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a bottom-line allocation to large state-owned banks, with beneficiaries including Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [6] - Core allocations should focus on leading comprehensive banks such as China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, and Industrial Bank [6] - Flexible allocations can be made to banks like Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [6]

证 券 研 究 报 告 盈利新周期，估值新起点，迎银行长牛 2026年银行业投资策略 证券分析师： 郑庆明 A0230519090001 林颖颖 A0230522070004 冯思远 A0230522090005 李禹昊 A0230525070004 联系人： 郑庆明 A0230519090001 2025.11.18 投资要点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 站在当下，我们更为坚定地看好银行板块正处于长牛修复的起点：2018年以来银行板块从"破净"到估值深度承压（最低0.49倍PB）再到当前行业整体 仍仅约0.7倍PB，核心压制无外乎两点："看不清的风险趋势"、"难以扭转的盈利下行"。相对乐观的是，这两点在当下都已"拨云见日"。 ◼ 不容忽视，银行板块价值回归的资金驱动力：1）"前所未有的低利率环境"是带动增量资金流向红利板块最直接驱动，银行板块性价比更优。对标美国 和日本，低利率环境中红利高股息策略总体跑赢，也是险资更为青睐的投资方向；而当前银行指数股息率约4.3%，较十年国债利率溢价位居过去十年超 70%分位，在红利板块中性价比更为突出。2）耐心资本入市仅是开端，以险资为代 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates a decline in fiscal support year-on-year, with M1 growth peaking and then receding [1][3] - The report highlights a decrease in credit volume, with October RMB loan growth at 6.5% year-on-year, a reduction of 0.12 percentage points month-on-month, and a new loan addition of 220 billion yuan, which is 280 billion yuan less than the previous year [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of "supply-demand balance" in the credit market, noting that weak demand in the household sector, particularly for short-term loans, is a significant factor [2] Group 2 - M1 and M2 growth rates fell by 1 percentage point and 0.2 percentage points respectively in October, with M1 at 6.2% and M2 at 8.2% [3] - The report suggests that the decline in M1 growth is attributed to a booming capital market, leading to a shift of deposits from residents and enterprises to non-bank deposits [3] - The investment recommendation remains focused on the banking sector, highlighting that the long-term investment value of banks continues to be strong, with a suggestion to focus on state-owned banks and quality regional banks [4][9] Group 3 - The report provides a detailed analysis of the banking sector's performance, indicating that the Shenyin & Wanguo Bank Index rose by 1.70% during the week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.78 percentage points [8] - It notes that the overall market performance for the week saw major indices decline, with the CSI 300 down by 1.08% and the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.18% [8] - The report also includes a forecast for key companies, with EPS and PE ratios provided for several banks, indicating a positive outlook for banks like Ningbo Bank and Jiangsu Bank [10]

Core Viewpoint - The announcements detail changes in shareholder equity and share pledges involving Chongqing Bank, highlighting significant transactions and adjustments in shareholder structure and equity management. Group 1: Shareholder Equity Changes - Chongqing Bank announced the transfer of 100% equity of Chongqing Yuli Material Co., Ltd. from Chongqing Yuli Commercial Management Co., Ltd. to Chongqing Guochuang Investment Management Co., Ltd., resulting in a change in the composition of shareholders related to Yufu Capital [2][3] - Following the transfer, Yuli Material, which held 629,499 shares of Chongqing Bank, will no longer be considered a concerted actor with Yufu Capital [2] Group 2: Share Pledge and Release - Chongqing Qianli Technology Co., Ltd. holds a total of 294,818,932 shares in Chongqing Bank, representing 8.49% of the total share capital, with 122,000,000 shares previously pledged [6] - The company released 76,000,000 shares from pledge and re-pledged 18,000,000 shares, resulting in a new pledge ratio of 21.71% for the shares held [6][8] - The remaining pledged shares will be managed according to future financing arrangements [7]

本行董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重庆银行股份有限公司（以下简称"本行"）于 2025 年 10 月 10 日在上海证 券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露了《关于股东权益变动的提示性公告》（公 告编号：2025-063）。为贯彻落实市委六届四次、五次、六次全会精神及市委、 市政府最新工作部署，贯彻市国资委突出主责主业、增强核心功能、整合优化改 革精神，重庆渝欣创商业管理有限公司（与渝富资本受同一股东控制）接重庆市 国有资产监督管理委员会通知，同意其将子公司重庆渝立商业管理有限公司持有 的重庆渝立物资有限公司（以下简称"渝立物资"）100%股权无偿划转至重庆国 创投资管理有限公司。因渝立物资持有本行 629,499 股 A 股股份，上述划转事项 完成后，渝富资本及其一致行动人的构成将发生变动，渝立物资将不再是渝富资 本的一致行动人。 近日，本行收到渝富资本通知，上述无偿划转事项的市场监督管理局变更登 记手续已办理完成。 证券代码：601963 证券简称：重庆银行 公告编号：2025-070 可转债代码： ...

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of local state-owned capital in Chongqing Bank involves the unconditional transfer of 100% equity of Chongqing Yuli Material Co., Ltd., indicating an ongoing optimization of financial equity layout by local state-owned enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholder Structure Adjustment - Chongqing Bank announced that its shareholder Chongqing Yufu Capital Operation Group Co., Ltd. and its concerted actors have undergone changes, with Chongqing Yuli Material Co., Ltd. no longer being a concerted actor after the unconditional transfer of its 100% equity [1]. - The transfer of Yuli Material's equity, which holds approximately 62,900 shares of Chongqing Bank (about 0.02% of total share capital), has been completed and registered with the market supervision administration [1]. - The adjustment aims to implement the spirit of recent Chongqing municipal party committee meetings and government directives, focusing on enhancing core functions and optimizing reforms [1]. Group 2: Context of Local State-Owned Capital Adjustments - Yufu Capital is the third-largest shareholder of Chongqing Bank, holding a 12.14% stake, fully controlled by Chongqing Yufu Holding Group Co., Ltd., which is wholly owned by the Chongqing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [2]. - The equity adjustment is part of an internal restructuring within the local state-owned capital system and does not involve external transfers or changes in control of Chongqing Bank [2]. - Throughout 2025, various financial institutions have seen similar unconditional equity transfers, with local state-owned capital optimizing their control over quality financial assets to stabilize regional financial systems [3].