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32万亿中长期定存明年到期,“存款搬家”有望持续
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-15 11:47
11月非银存款再度同比少增,"存款搬家"偃旗息鼓了吗? 央行披露的最新金融数据显示,11月人民币存款增速显著放缓,居民、企业、财政及非银存款全面同比少增。其 中,非银存款仅增加800亿元,同比少增1000亿元,继9月之后再度出现同比少增。 在受访人士看来,在存款向股市"搬家"这一趋势假设下,非银存款的波动是资本市场波动的结果,预计后续还将 延续高波动趋势。另有机构数据显示,明年居民存款到期规模超过170万亿元,较今年又将多出近20万亿元。其 中,2年期以上定存的到期规模在32万亿元左右。 据中金公司测算,今年前10个月,居民定期存款规模累计增长10.5万亿元,比2023年少增了3.9万亿元;年初以 来,居民活期存款、银行理财、非货币基金分别增长了0.9万亿元、3.6万亿元、2.7万亿元,较2023年同期分别多 增1.6万亿元、4万亿元、2.6万亿元。相比2023年,今年前10个月非银存款多增了6万亿元。 "如果非银存款增速较居民存款抬升,意味着居民在资产配置上将存款转化为金融资产,对应其风险偏好有所抬 升;从历史经验来看,非银居民存款剪刀差同步于A股成交金额占A股总市值的比重,且非银存款增长规模与A股 的成交 ...
第十九届华夏机构投资者典型案例揭晓
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-12-15 10:39
本报(chinatimes.net.cn)记者吴敏 北京报道 本届年会以"活力与韧性 拓新与赋能"为核心主题,由中央财经大学数字经济融合创新发展中心、华夏 时报金融思想荟、华夏时报金融研究院联合提供智力支持,意在回应时代之问,凝聚发展共识,探寻未 来路径。 年会现场,广受关注的典型案例同步公布,典型案例经过严格筛选程序选定。 获得"2025年度绿色金融实践典型案例"的机构: 中国农业银行、中国银行北京市分行、兴业银行、中金公司、新网银行、华泰证券 获得"2025年度金融助残典型案例"的机构: 中国农业银行、云南信托 获得"2025年度智慧养老金融典型案例"的机构: 中国民生银行、中信银行、农银理财、新华保险、和谐健康、北京银行、中荷人寿、盛京银行、国泰海 通证券、英大信托 获得"2025年度绿色金融创新典型案例"的机构: 12月12日,由华夏时报社主办的第十九届华夏机构投资者年会暨华夏金融(保险)科技论坛在北京成功 举办。 获得"2025年度普惠金融数字化转型典型案例"的机构: 中信百信银行、乐信、张家口银行、杭州银行 获得"2025年度智能风控科技创新应用典型案例"的机构: 外贸信托、桔子数科、小赢科技、湖 ...
中金:居民资产配置切换迹象显现 资本市场有望迎万亿元潜在增量资金
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-12-15 08:49
格隆汇12月15日|中金公司研究部分析称,2024年以来,可以观测到居民定期存款增量明显放缓,同时 居民活期存款、银行理财、非货基金规模增长提速,呈现资金跷跷板特征。根据中金公司研究部数据, 可以反映出居民资金入市的趋势。展望后市,随着居民资产配置切换,理财产品能给股市带来多少增量 资金?据中金公司研究部测算,受益于含权产品发力,2026年理财机构有望提升权益资产仓位(股票 +股混基金)0.8个百分点至2.3%;2027年伴随着理财权益投研资源的持续投入,仓位有望进一步提升至 3.5%,以上合计有望为资本市场带来潜在近1万亿元的增量资金。 ...
沪市并购2025成绩单:806笔交易开好局 产业并购成主流
政策和现实需求的"同频共振",让沪市公司重大资产重组的"产业逻辑"和"提质增效"被不断强化和激 活,产业并购和股东注资型交易成为最主要方向。2025年,沪市新增的重大资产重组案例中,产业并购 超五成、大股东注资占两成。同时,六成标的属于新质生产力行业、硬科技属性较强,集中在半导体行 业、汽车产业链等行业。 业内人士指出,此轮并购重组的"深度激活"不仅体现在数量,更体现并购动机正朝着产业并购、高质量 发展的方向演进,从前一轮的注重规模扩张,变为注重质量提升,逐步形成政策-市场-产业的正向循 环。 2025年,"并购六条"走过第一个完整自然年度。 这一年,以沪市为观测窗口,全年新增各类资产并购超800单,同比增加11%,其中重大资产重组90 单,同比增长55%。 在重组数据"井喷"的背后,折射出的是"并购六条"对2025年资本市场的深远改变:各类标志性案例交织 呈现,成为市场信心的"助推器";并购的产业整合和转型升级逻辑被不断强化,成为高质量发展的"硬 抓手";价值聚焦重于规模优先的市场共识不断凝聚,成为良好并购生态的"催化剂"。 站在2025年尾声回望,发端于资本市场2024年"924新政"的新一轮并购重组实现 ...
2025年多个并购“超大单”落地
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-12-15 02:49
Core Insights - The implementation of the "Merger Six Guidelines" has significantly increased the activity level of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the A-share market, with over 800 new asset mergers in 2025, marking an 11% year-on-year increase, and 90 major asset restructurings, a 55% increase [2][4] Group 1: M&A Activity and Trends - The majority of new mergers are focused on industrial acquisitions and shareholder injections, with over 50% of major asset restructurings being industrial mergers and 20% involving shareholder injections [2] - A significant 60% of the targets belong to new productivity sectors with strong hard technology attributes, particularly in the semiconductor and automotive industries [2] - The M&A landscape has seen the emergence of various landmark and innovative cases, including the first cross-border mergers, acquisitions of unprofitable assets, and diversified payment methods [5][6] Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's revision of the "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures" in May 2025 has shifted the focus from an "audit-oriented" to an "efficiency-oriented" and "industry-oriented" approach, enhancing the M&A market's activity [4] - Since the introduction of the new policies, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has recorded 1,177 new asset restructuring cases, with 125 being major asset restructurings, indicating a robust market response [4] Group 3: Long-term Value Focus - The current M&A wave emphasizes optimizing existing assets, with various stakeholders, including local governments and companies, shifting their focus towards quality improvement and long-term value [7] - Major state-owned enterprises and hard technology companies are increasingly prioritizing long-term effects in their M&A strategies, with 15 major asset restructurings completed by central state-owned enterprises in 2025 [7][8] - The trend of "stock integration" is evident, with 77% of disclosed major asset restructurings being industrial mergers, reflecting a growing consensus on the importance of long-term value enhancement [7]
沪市并购观察:产业并购成主力,2025年多个“超大单”落地
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-15 01:43
Core Insights - The article highlights the significant increase in merger and acquisition (M&A) activities in the A-share market, particularly driven by the "Six Merger Rules" implemented in 2024, which have led to a more active and innovative M&A environment [2][4][5]. Group 1: M&A Activity Overview - In 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange recorded over 800 new asset mergers, marking an 11% year-on-year increase, with 90 major asset restructurings, a 55% increase from the previous year [2][4]. - More than 50% of the new major asset restructurings in 2025 were industry mergers, while 20% involved large shareholder injections [3][4]. - The focus of M&A activities has shifted towards high-quality development, with a notable emphasis on long-term value and quality enhancement rather than mere scale expansion [3][8]. Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Impact - The implementation of the "Six Merger Rules" has transformed the regulatory landscape, shifting from an approval-oriented approach to one focused on efficiency and industry guidance [4][5]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's revisions to the Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures have further stimulated M&A market activity by simplifying review processes and enhancing regulatory inclusivity [4][5]. Group 3: Notable Transactions and Trends - Significant transactions include the cross-border mergers and innovative payment structures, such as the first cross-border merger that achieved consolidation and the first acquisition of unprofitable assets [5][6][7]. - Major mergers like Guotai Junan's acquisition of Haitong Securities and China Shipbuilding's merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation highlight the trend of large-scale consolidations in the financial and industrial sectors [6][7]. - The emergence of innovative cross-border M&A transactions, such as cash privatizations and share swaps, reflects a growing trend towards international integration and strategic asset acquisition [7][8]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The semiconductor, automotive, and hard technology sectors have seen a concentration of M&A activities, with 60% of the targets belonging to new productivity industries [3][10]. - Central state-owned enterprises are increasingly participating in industry consolidation, focusing on long-term value creation and the cultivation of new growth drivers [8][10]. - The trend of "stock optimization" is evident, with a significant number of IPO companies becoming M&A targets, indicating a shift towards resource optimization and industry upgrading [8][9].
中金:如何在美A港三地中做出选择?
智通财经网· 2025-12-15 00:18
智通财经APP获悉,中金公司发布研报称,2025年初以来,美A港三地市场呈现以季度维度的切换脉络。流动性上港股对美国宽松更敏感,但跑赢需两地 资金认为本地机会都有限;美国信用周期修复,中国信用周期震荡,盈利方面美股好于A股好于港股。AI主线下短期硬件可见性好于应用,强周期A股更 多,红利港股更优。 近期港股为何在三地中走得更弱?市场对流动性更敏感,结构对基本面更敏感 港股近期在三地中走得更弱,与港股市场对流动性更为敏感的特点和结构上的差异有直接关系。港股作为离岸市场,对流动性的变化更敏感,近期资金面 偏弱,扰动较多。 该行建议以红利(港股居多)和AI作为底仓(A股硬件短期确定性更高,港股应用还需催化剂),短期表现需要产业催化或流动性改善;一季度重点关注强周 期的交易催化(有色、铝、化工、机械与工具等,A股多于港股),消费板块整体缺乏基本面支撑。美股方面,如果财政和货币发力兑现,周期有望追赶科 技,同时受益于降本增效和经济改善的小盘股,以及信贷增加和金融去监管的金融股也值得关注。 中金公司主要观点如下: 2025年初以来,美A港三地市场呈现以季度维度的切换脉络,既有此消彼长的"跷跷板"效应,也有跨市场间的映射联 ...
中金:下半年A股跑赢港股 A股相对优势中期有望延续
智通财经网· 2025-12-15 00:15
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to outperform the Hong Kong stock market in the medium term, driven by factors such as liquidity advantages, international monetary order restructuring, and the revaluation of RMB assets [1][6]. Market Performance - From August 18 to December 12, the A-share market showed strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 5.2%, the CSI 300 by 9.0%, and the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 increasing by 26.0% and 22.5% respectively. In contrast, the Hong Kong market saw the Hang Seng Index rise by 2.8% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 1.7% [1][2]. Fundamental Analysis - The A-share market benefits from high-growth sectors such as hard technology and new energy, which are expected to see improved performance in the second half of the year. The hardware sector, particularly semiconductors and electronics, is a strong point for A-shares, while Hong Kong's strengths lie in large internet companies [3][4]. Liquidity Factors - The A-share market is experiencing increased liquidity due to active participation from individual investors, with margin trading balances rising from 2.1 trillion yuan in mid-August to 2.5 trillion yuan by mid-December. Additionally, the trend of "deposit migration" and the activation of bank wealth management products are contributing to this liquidity [4][5]. Overseas Influences - The Hong Kong market is more susceptible to overseas factors, including international liquidity and trade policies. Recent fluctuations in U.S. monetary policy and trade relations have had a more pronounced impact on Hong Kong compared to A-shares, which have shown greater resilience [5][6]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the A-share market is expected to maintain its relative advantages, particularly as AI technology begins to see industrial application in 2024. Key areas of focus include computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing, with a continued emphasis on domestic production [6].
2025年度北京金融业十大品牌揭晓
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-12-14 15:39
Group 1 - The top ten financial brands in Beijing for the year 2025 have been announced [1] - The list includes major banks such as ICBC, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China [2] - Other notable companies on the list are China Life Insurance and Ping An Life Insurance [2]
开源晨会-20251214
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-14 14:42
Group 1 - The report highlights the recent performance of various industries, with notable gains in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment, while retail and real estate sectors faced declines [1][1][1] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of technological breakthroughs and supply-demand optimization, indicating a shift towards quality improvement in economic growth [11][12][19] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant growth, with the establishment of a dedicated regulatory body and a notable increase in the commercial aerospace index, which has risen by 46.52% since April 7 [47][48] Group 2 - The report indicates a seasonal recovery in social financing, with November seeing an increase of 24,885 billion yuan, driven primarily by government bond issuance [4][7] - The credit environment is showing signs of marginal improvement, particularly in corporate loans, which increased by 6,100 billion yuan in November, reflecting a recovery in demand [5][6] - The report notes that the retail sector is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on quality, as highlighted by the Ministry of Commerce's emphasis on retail quality upgrades [1][1][1] Group 3 - The report discusses the rising interest in inquiry transfers, which have seen a significant increase in both project numbers and transfer scale, indicating a growing trend in the market [51][52] - The technology sector is expected to remain a key focus, with upcoming events such as the Volcano Engine FORCE conference anticipated to showcase advancements in AI and cloud services [56]