公司报告 | 季报点评 事件：①2023 年，公司实现收入 72.6 亿元，yoy+10%；归母净利润 3.4 亿 元，yoy+47%；扣非归母 4.0 亿元，yoy+55%。②24q1，公司实现收入 17.0 亿元，yoy-7%；归母净利润 1.7 亿元，yoy+20%；扣非归母 1.6 亿元，yoy+16%。 收入端：受终端消费低迷，24q1 收入同比下滑。 盈利端：受益原料下行、费用控制，24q1 明显改善。 -24q1：毛利率 30.0%，同比+5.7pct；归母净利率 9.7%，同比+2.2pct。 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------------------------------------------| | | 证券研究报告 2024 年 05 月 07 日 | | 投资评级 | | | 行业 | 食品饮料 / 休闲食品 | | 6 | 个月评级 买入（维持评级） | | 当前价格 | 20.94 元 | | | 目标价格 元 | | 基本数据 | | | A 股总股本 ( 百万股 | 619.93 | | 流通 A 股股本 ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Juewei Food (603517) [2] Core Views - Juewei Food achieved total revenue of 7.261 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 9.64%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 344 million yuan, up 46.63% [3] - In 2023Q4, the company's revenue was 1.630 billion yuan, up 8.45%, but net profit attributable to the parent company was -45 million yuan, down 394.98% [3] - In 2024Q1, the company's revenue was 1.695 billion yuan, down 7.04%, but net profit attributable to the parent company was 165 million yuan, up 20.02% [3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.50 yuan per share (tax included), with a dividend payout ratio of 89.89% [3] Business Performance - The company added 874 new stores in 2023, with a single-store shipment increasing by approximately 1.22% year-on-year [3] - In 2023, the company's sales of braised food, franchisee management, and other (logistics and raw material sales) revenues were 6.050 billion yuan, 83 million yuan, and 974 million yuan, up 7.09%, 11.38%, and 33.82% year-on-year, respectively [3] - In 2023, the company's revenue from poultry, livestock, vegetables, other products, and packaged products was 4.478 billion yuan, 27 million yuan, 680 million yuan, 583 million yuan, and 282 million yuan, up 6.50%, 26.78%, 5.57%, 2.80%, and 32.75% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The company's total number of stores in mainland China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and overseas) reached 15,950 at the end of 2023, with a net increase of 874 stores, a growth rate of 5.80% [3] Regional Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue in Central China, South China, East China, North China, Southwest China, Northwest China, and other regions was 2.219 billion yuan, 1.605 billion yuan, 1.293 billion yuan, 887 million yuan, 832 million yuan, 141 million yuan, and 130 million yuan, up 10.81%, 12.06%, 8.72%, 19.04%, -3.76%, 106.52%, and -13.22% year-on-year, respectively [3] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's gross profit margin was 24.77%, down 0.80 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 4.74%, up 1.23 percentage points year-on-year [3] - In 2024Q1, the company's gross profit margin was 30.03%, up 5.73 percentage points year-on-year and 3.13 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company's net profit margin attributable to the parent company in 2024Q1 was 9.73%, up 2.19 percentage points year-on-year [3] Future Projections - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 790 million yuan, 982 million yuan, and 1.129 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 129.54%, 24.27%, and 14.90%, respectively [3] - The company's PE ratios as of May 6 are expected to be 16x, 13x, and 12x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3]

请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 程丽丽，金融学硕士，毕业于厦门大学王亚南经济研究院，3 年食品饮料研究经验。覆 盖休闲食品和连锁业态（深度研究绝味食品、周黑鸭、煌上煌、洽洽食品、盐津铺子、 甘源食品、劲仔食品等），深度研究零食量贩业态。 张伟敬，武汉理工大学毕业，法学、经济学双学位，金融行业工作两年，随后进入白酒 行业十三年，先后在泸州老窖、杜康、舍得酒业从事一线销售工作，在高端酒、次高端、 中低端价位均有实际操盘经验，产业思维强，酒圈资源丰富，对白酒行业趋势有独到理 解，尤其擅长分析次高端酒企竞争格局。 王雪骄，康奈尔大学管理学硕士，华盛顿大学经济学+国际关系双学士，覆盖啤酒（深 度研究华润啤酒、青岛啤酒、重庆啤酒）、水、饮料行业。 免责声明 本报告是针对与信达证券签署服务协议的签约客户的专属研究产品，为该类客户进行投资决策时提供辅助和参考，双方对权利与 义务均有严格约定。本报告仅提供给上述特定客户，并不面向公众发布。信达证券不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为本公司的当 然客户。客户应当认识到有关本报告的电话、短信、邮件提示仅为研究观点的简要沟通，对本报告的参 ...

关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 证券代码：603517 证券简称：绝味食品 公告编号：2024-044 绝味食品股份有限公司 一、 回购股份的基本情况 公司分别于 2024 年 2 月 4 日、2024 年 2 月 21 日召开第五届董事会第十五次 会议、2024 年第一次临时股东大会审议通过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公 司股份的方案》，同意公司以自有资金通过集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份，用于 减少公司注册资本。本次回购的资金总额不低于人民币 20,000 万元（含）且不超 过人民币 30,000 万元（含），回购价格不超过人民币 35.00 元/股（含），回购期限 为自公司 2024 年第一次临时股东大会审议通过回购股份方案之日起 12 个月内。 具体内容详见公司于 2024 年 2 月 22 日在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn） 披露的《绝味食品股份有限公司关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份的回购报 告书》（公告编号：20 ...

2023 年报&2024 年一季报点评：单店持续承 压，利润率边际改善 2024 年 05 月 06 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|----------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6,623 | 7,261 | 7,713 | 8,331 | 9,067 | | 同比（ % ） | 1.13 | 9.64 | 6.22 | 8.00 | 8.85 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 234.81 | 344.31 | 727.00 | 883.99 | 1,011.84 | | 同比（ % ） | (76.06) | 46.63 | 111.15 | 21.59 | 14.46 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0.38 | 0.56 | 1.17 | 1.43 | 1.63 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][3]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.261 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, and a net profit of 401 million yuan, up 54.5% year-on-year [1]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in single-store revenue, with expectations for the reform of its franchise system to enhance long-term growth potential [3][8]. - Cost pressures are easing, leading to a significant improvement in profit margins, with a net profit margin of 4.37% in 2023, up 1.44 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, the company reported revenues of 1.630 billion yuan and 1.695 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +8.5% and -7.0% [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 24.77%, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points year-on-year, but improved to 26.90% in Q4 2023 and 30.03% in Q1 2024 [2]. - The company’s net profit for Q1 2024 was 156 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.7% [1]. Store Operations - The company opened a net of 874 new stores in 2023, bringing the total to 15,950, a 6% increase year-on-year, although there was a net decrease of 212 stores in the second half of the year due to a slowdown in consumer spending [7]. - The revenue from fresh products grew by 6% year-on-year, indicating that single-store revenue has stabilized [7]. Franchise System - The company is focusing on the health of its franchise system by reducing the pace of new store openings and optimizing its franchise model [8]. - The introduction of new franchisees with better backgrounds aims to enhance the overall quality of the franchise system, setting a foundation for sustainable growth [8]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted downwards to 840 million yuan and 982 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a 14% and 24% reduction from previous estimates [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 15 for 2024, 13 for 2025, and 11 for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation for a leading player in the casual snack market [3].

分析师： 24Q1 公司实现营收 16.95 亿元，同比-7.04%。24Q1 鲜货类产品实现营 净资产收益率(%)： 2.31 收 13.50 亿元，同比-8.7%。23Q4 起公司积极通过抖音引流、团购买券等方 资料来源：最闻 式拉动销售，在高基数背景下单店营收方面仍有所承压。24 年公司将工作重 点聚焦于提升单店、缩短投资回收期等，更为注重公司高质量发展。 执业登记编码：S0760522080001 邮箱：zhourong1@sxzq.xom 原材料价格高位回落，24Q1 年毛利率显著改善。23 年公司毛利率为 24.77%,同比-0.80ptcs。23 年全年来看，鸭副等原材料价格整体高位致全年毛 利率有所承压，从 23Q3 原材料成本呈逐月下降态势，23Q4 起毛利率逐步改 善。23 年销售费用率/管理费用率/财务费用率分别为 7.44%/6.38%/0.19%， 同比-2.31/-1.39/-0.11ptcs，同时廖记/幺麻子等投资亏损同比+0.2 亿元，综合 之下，公司净利率为 4.74%，同比+1.23ptcs。24Q1 公司毛利率为 30.03%， 同比+5.73ptcs；净利率为 9.73 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][10][23] Core Views - The company is shifting its focus from expanding market share to optimizing store operations and franchise management, aiming for sustainable growth through targeted support systems for franchise partners [2] - Revenue growth is expected to slow down due to a decrease in store expansion speed, but continuous cost optimization is projected to enhance profitability [2] - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are estimated at 76.11 billion, 80.73 billion, and 86.20 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 5%, 6%, and 7% respectively [2] - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is projected to be 6.84 billion, 7.93 billion, and 9.04 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 99%, 16%, and 14% respectively [2] Financial Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 72.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.64%, and a net profit of 3.44 billion yuan, up 46.63% year-on-year [23] - The first quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 16.95 billion yuan, down 7.04% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 20.02% to 1.65 billion yuan [23] - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 24.77%, with a gradual improvement observed in the second half of the year [23] - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 1.10, 1.28, and 1.46 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 16, and 14 times [2][27]

图1：鸭脖采购价格及同比表现（单位：元/kg） 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 3 / 7 备注：绝味食品盈利预测来自广发证券，紫燕食品、巴比食品和煌上煌来自 Wind 一致预测，数据截至 2024/4/30 （二）单店修复不及预期 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 4 / 7 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 5 / 7 郝宇新 ：资深分析师，金融学硕士，2023 年加入广发证券发展研究中心。 张晋源 ：高级研究员，管理学硕士，2023 年加入广发证券发展研究中心。 [Table_IndustryInvestDescription] 广发证券—行业投资评级说明 卖出： 预期未来 12 个月内，股价表现弱于大盘 10%以上。 增持： 预期未来 12 个月内，股价表现强于大盘 5%-15%。 [联系我们 Table_Address] 广发证券（香港）经纪有限公司具备香港证监会批复的就证券提供意见（4 号牌照）的牌照，接受香港证监会监管，负责本报告于中国香 港地区的分销。 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 6 / 7 本报告仅面向经广发证券授权使用的客户/特定合作 ...

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