Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market rose rapidly under the boost of capital, with the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing as the main driving forces. The price broke through the historical high and continued to strengthen, and is currently fluctuating widely at a high level [59]. - In 2026, the tight supply of tin ore will gradually ease, showing a pattern of tight supply in the first half and loose in the second half. The operating rate of smelters will improve after the holiday. The processing fee, which has been at a low level, increased in January and has room for further growth. However, the secondary tin smelting industry still faces problems such as an inefficient waste recycling system and uncertain recycling policies [59]. - In terms of demand, the tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue its good growth trend in 2026, benefiting from the rapid development of the semiconductor industry due to computing power demand. In addition, the external demand in the traditional tin - plated sheet field is expanding, offsetting some of the negative impact of the decline in domestic demand. The future development of Sino - US trade frictions remains the biggest uncertainty [59]. - In 2026, the global interest - rate cut cycle will continue, and the non - ferrous metal sector will cyclically improve. The supply side is likely to gradually loosen, while the downstream demand also has some bright spots. The supply and demand of tin are likely to remain in a tight - balanced situation. It is expected that tin prices will remain strong in 2026, with the Shanghai tin futures price mainly ranging between 350,000 - 450,000 and the LME tin price mainly between 45,000 - 60,000 [59]. Summary by Directory Part I: Market Review and Macroeconomic Impact - **Market Review**: In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market accelerated its upward rush, and the overall center of gravity shifted significantly. The main driving forces were the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing, while the impact of the current fundamentals was relatively weak [8]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Geopolitical situations are complex and changeable. The EU is considering imposing tariffs on US goods worth 93 billion euros and restricting US companies from entering the EU market. The US will impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from eight European countries starting February 1, 2026, and the tariff rate will increase to 25% starting June 1. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in January, and the candidate for the new Fed chair is undetermined. Since January, the US dollar index first rose and then fell, putting pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector [11]. Part II: Tin Supply - Side Analysis - **Tin Ore Supply**: China's tin ore production has been declining in recent years due to over - exploitation, low - grade reserves, and limited new resource discoveries. In 2025, the production of tin concentrates in China showed a slight increase. In December 2025, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly month - on - month. With the gradual increase in tin ore exports from the Wa State in Myanmar, the import volume is expected to increase in 2026 [17]. - **Refined Tin Production**: In 2025, the price of tin concentrates showed an upward trend, and the processing fee was weak. In 2026, with a slight improvement in ore supply, the processing fee was raised. In December 2025, the output of refined tin by domestic sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that in 2026, the supply growth rate of refined tin will be slightly higher than that in 2025, but the output in January may decrease month - on - month [20]. - **Refined Tin Import and Export**: In 2026, there is a trend of opening the refined tin import window. In December 2025, both imports and exports of refined tin increased. In 2025, China's net exports of refined tin were nearly 3,500 tons [23]. Part III: Tin Demand - Side Analysis - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. However, in 2025, due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and the decline in domestic demand, the production decreased significantly. In 2025, the export of tin - plated sheets increased, but the future export situation is affected by the Sino - US trade war [29]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The production of lead - acid batteries has been growing in recent years, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2025, the export of lead - acid batteries decreased year - on - year due to the impact of the trade war [30]. - **Electronic Products**: The growth cycle of electronic products is approaching the end. In 2025, the production growth rate of electronic products turned negative. It is expected that the production and sales of computers and mobile phones will decline in 2026 [35]. - **Integrated Circuits**: Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, it is expected that the production and sales of integrated circuits will continue to grow rapidly in the medium and long term [36]. - **PVC and Glass**: The production of PVC has been increasing, while the production of glass has been decreasing. Each ton of glass consumes about 22 grams of tin [41]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic industry is transforming from a high - speed development stage. In 2025, there was a rush to install photovoltaic capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW. The new tin demand in the global photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 43,000 tons, and about 20,000 tons in China [44]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down. It is expected that the growth rate in 2026 will be between 15% - 20% [48]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance**: As of December 1, 2025, the combined inventory of tin in the two major exchanges was at a relatively high - middle level. The global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months since 2018. In 2025 and 2026, the supply and demand are expected to remain in a tight - balanced situation [51][55]. - **Seasonal Analysis**: Historically, tin prices are weakest in June, and the probability of decline is high in March and October. The probability of increase is high in January, April, July, and December, and the increase is relatively significant. The probability of decline in August is slightly higher than that of increase, while the probability of increase in November is higher [57]. - **Related Stocks**: The stocks of related tin industries have shown significant increases in both monthly and annual terms, such as Tin Industry Co., Ltd., Xingye Co., Ltd., etc. [58]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Xingye Co., Ltd., expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company ranging from 85 million to 105 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 109.78% to 159.14% [1] Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated between 85 million yuan and 105 million yuan [1] - This represents a significant increase compared to the previous year, with a growth rate of 109.78% to 159.14% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a range of 85 million to 105 million yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of 44.4814 million to 64.4814 million yuan, equating to a growth of 109.78% to 159.14% compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is between 85 million and 105 million yuan [1] - This represents an increase of 44.4814 million to 64.4814 million yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The expected growth rate is between 109.78% and 159.14% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Business Drivers - The company's main business is maintaining a stable and positive trend, contributing to the revenue growth [1] - Continuous optimization of marketing strategies and strengthening of channel construction have led to steady increases in product sales [1] - The company is implementing management reforms and cost reduction measures, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing unit costs more than the price adjustment, which boosts gross margin [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a range of 85 million to 105 million yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of 44.4814 million to 64.4814 million yuan, or a growth of 109.78% to 159.14% compared to the previous year [1] Group 1 - The substantial profit growth is primarily attributed to the company's stable and positive performance in its main business [1] - Continuous optimization of marketing strategies and strengthening of channel construction have led to a steady increase in the sales volume of major products [1] - The company has implemented management reforms and cost-reduction measures, enhancing operational efficiency and allowing the reduction in unit costs to exceed the adjustment in selling prices, thereby improving gross margins [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 85 million to 105 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 44.48 million to 64.48 million yuan, or a growth of 109.78% to 159.14% [1] Group 1 - The substantial profit growth is primarily attributed to the company's stable and positive performance in its main business [1] - Continuous optimization of marketing strategies and strengthening of channel construction have led to a steady increase in the sales volume of major products, driving revenue growth [1] - The company is advancing management reforms and implementing cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures, resulting in a decrease in unit costs that outpaces price adjustments, thereby improving gross margins and overall profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects significant profit growth in 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected to be between 85 million to 105 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 109.78% to 159.14% [1] Financial Performance - The projected net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses for 2025 is estimated to be between 80 million to 100 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 99.15% to 148.94% [1] Business Strategy - The company's main business is expected to maintain a stable and positive trend, driven by continuous optimization of marketing strategies and strengthened channel development, leading to steady growth in product sales [1] Operational Efficiency - The company is advancing management reforms and implementing cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures, resulting in a greater decrease in unit costs of main products compared to price adjustments, which boosts gross margin and overall profitability [1]

Financial Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 85 million to 105 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 109.78% to 159.14%[3] - The projected net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is estimated to be between 80 million to 100 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 99.15% to 148.94%[4] - The net profit for 2024 was 40.52 million yuan, indicating a significant increase in profitability for 2025[5] - The company achieved a total profit of 46.80 million yuan in 2024, with a net profit margin improvement expected in 2025[5] Factors Influencing Profit Growth - The growth in profit is attributed to stable performance in core business, optimized marketing strategies, and enhanced channel construction[7] - The company has implemented cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures, leading to a decrease in unit costs greater than the price adjustment, thus improving gross margin[7] Earnings Forecast Validity - The earnings forecast is based on preliminary calculations and has not been audited by external accountants[8] - There are no significant uncertainties affecting the accuracy of the earnings forecast according to preliminary discussions with the auditing firm[8] - Investors are advised that the earnings forecast data is preliminary and the final figures will be disclosed in the official 2025 annual report[9] - The earnings forecast period is from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025[4]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, projecting a range of 85 million to 105 million yuan, which represents a year-on-year growth of 109.78% to 159.14% [1] Group 1 - The substantial profit growth is primarily attributed to the company's stable and positive performance in its main business [1] - Continuous optimization of marketing strategies and strengthening of channel construction have contributed to the steady increase in sales of major products [1] - The main business revenue is expected to achieve a year-on-year increase due to these factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the year 2025, driven by strong performance in its main business and effective cost management strategies [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 85 million to 105 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 109.78% to 159.14% [1] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 80 million to 100 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 99.15% to 148.94% [1] Business Strategy - The growth in profit is attributed to the steady improvement in the company's main business, supported by optimized marketing strategies and strengthened channel development, leading to a steady increase in product sales [1] - The company is actively pursuing management reforms and implementing cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures, which include refined management practices and improved operational efficiency [1] Profitability Enhancement - The reduction in unit costs of main products has outpaced the adjustments in selling prices, resulting in a continuous improvement in gross profit margins and overall profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects significant growth in net profit for the year 2025, with projections indicating an increase of 109.78% to 159.14% year-on-year, driven by improved operational efficiency and sales growth in its main business [1] Financial Performance - The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be between 85 million and 105 million yuan [1] - The estimated net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 80 million and 100 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 99.15% to 148.94% [1] Business Strategy - The company's main business is showing a stable and positive trend, supported by continuous optimization of marketing strategies and strengthened channel development [1] - The company has implemented management reforms and cost-reduction measures, enhancing operational efficiency and leading to a greater reduction in unit costs compared to price adjustments [1] Profitability Enhancement - The improvements in management and operational efficiency have resulted in a sustained increase in gross profit margins, thereby enhancing overall profitability [1]