[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|食品饮料 [Table_Title] 渠道、产品建设成果斐然，业绩保持高增长 [Table_StockName] ——东鹏饮料（605499）点评报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 09 月 03 日 [Table_Summary] 报告关键要素: 2024 年 8 月 31 日，公司发布 2024 年半年度报告。2024 年上半年，公 司实现营收 78.73 亿元（同比+44.19%），归母净利润 17.31 亿元（同 比+56.17%），扣非归母净利润 17.07 亿元（同比+72.34%）。其中， 2024Q2 实现营收 43.91 亿元（同比+47.88%），归母净利润 10.67 亿元 （同比+74.62%），扣非归母净利润 10.82 亿元（同比+101.51%）。 证 券 研 究 报 告 公司点评报告 公司研究 3235 投资要点: ⚫ 公司 2024 年上半年营业收入高达 78.73 亿元，2024Q2 业绩增速环比明 显提升。2024 年上半年，公司实现营收 78.73 亿元（同比+44.19%）， 归母净利润 17. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [2] Core Views - The company has shown robust growth in the first half of 2024, with a focus on expanding its market presence beyond Guangdong while solidifying its core energy drink segment. The diversification of its product matrix and multi-channel promotion strategies have fostered consumer trust and repeat purchases. The company is transitioning from a single-category to a multi-category beverage group, with projected revenues of 15.345 billion, 19.486 billion, and 23.217 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 36.25%, 26.98%, and 19.15% [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 7.873 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.731 billion yuan, up 72.34% year-on-year, with a significant increase in the second quarter [2][3] - The core product, Dongpeng Energy Drink, continued to grow steadily, with a revenue increase of 33.49% year-on-year, while the new product line, Dongpeng Water, expanded rapidly, contributing 476 million yuan in revenue [2][3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 11.263 billion yuan for 2023, with a growth rate of 32.4%, and expects to reach 15.345 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 36.2% [4][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.040 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 2.895 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 41.6% [4][5] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin is expected to improve from 43.1% in 2023 to 45.5% in 2026, while the net margin is projected to rise from 18.1% to 20.4% over the same period [6] - The return on equity is forecasted to be 32.3% in 2023, increasing to 38.1% by 2026, indicating strong profitability [6] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company is expected to generate operating cash flow of 3.281 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 6.469 billion yuan by 2026, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities [7] - The total assets are projected to grow from 14.710 billion yuan in 2023 to 22.769 billion yuan in 2026, indicating a solid financial position [5][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue reaching 7.873 billion yuan (up 44.19% year-on-year) and net profit at 1.731 billion yuan (up 56.17% year-on-year) [5][6] - The company is transitioning from a functional beverage focus to a comprehensive beverage group, implementing a multi-category strategy [6][8] - The "East Peng Water" product line has shown rapid growth, with revenue increasing by 281.12% year-on-year, indicating a successful second growth curve [8] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin increase of 1.50 percentage points due to lower raw material costs, leading to a gross profit increase of 49.20% year-on-year [5] - The company expects revenues of 15.531 billion yuan, 20.066 billion yuan, and 25.488 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.056 billion yuan, 4.108 billion yuan, and 5.413 billion yuan [7][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 7.64 yuan, 10.27 yuan, and 13.53 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [11] Market Strategy - The company has expanded its sales network, reaching over 3.6 million active terminal stores nationwide, with a significant increase in revenue from both online and direct sales channels [9][10] - The marketing strategy includes high-frequency advertising and promotional activities, particularly during peak travel seasons, to enhance brand visibility [9] - The company is leveraging digitalization to improve inventory management, sales execution, and consumer engagement, which is seen as a core competitive advantage [10][11]

公司报告 | 半年报点评 利润略超预期，全年高增可期 事件：2024H1 公司实现营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 78.73/17.31/17.07 亿元（同比+44.19%/+56.17%/+72.34%）。2024Q2 公司实 现营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 43.91/10.67/10.82 亿元 （同比+47.88%/+74.62%/+101.51%）。公司拟每10 股派发现金红利25 元（含 税），合计拟派发 10 亿现金红利（占 24H1 归母净利润 57.79%），同时每 10 股转增 3 股，合计转增股本 1.2 亿股。 东鹏饮料（605499） 证券研究报告 2024 年 09 月 02 日 投资评级 行业 食品饮料/饮料乳品 6 个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 227.94 元 目标价格 元 量增驱动高增，补水啦增长明显。24H1 东鹏饮料/东鹏补水啦/其他饮料营 收 68.55/4.76/5.31 亿元（同比+33.49%/+281.12%/+172.16%）。拆分量价看： 1）销量分别为 160.48/20.95/23.85 万吨（同比+32.96%/+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Dongpeng Beverage [5][11] Core Views - Dongpeng Beverage has shown strong growth in its 2024 H1 performance, with revenue reaching 7.873 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.19%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.731 billion yuan, up 56.17% [2] - The company is experiencing a dual growth engine through regional expansion and new product launches, particularly with the "Dongpeng Water" product showing remarkable growth [3] - The company's gross margin improved due to a decrease in raw material costs, leading to a net profit margin increase of 3.72 percentage points to 24.29% [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects net profits of 3.006 billion yuan, 3.995 billion yuan, and 5.004 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 32, 24, and 19 [4][8] - Revenue is projected to grow from 11.263 billion yuan in 2023 to 25.296 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 26% [4][8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 5.10 yuan in 2023 to 12.51 yuan in 2026 [4][8] Product and Regional Performance - The core product, Dongpeng Special Drink, generated 6.855 billion yuan in revenue in 2024 H1, a 33.49% increase year-on-year, while the new product "Dongpeng Water" achieved revenue of 476 million yuan, up 281.12% [3] - Regional performance showed that the national area revenue reached 4.698 billion yuan, a 57.02% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in regions such as Central China and Southwest China [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 260.28 RMB, compared to the last closing price of 227.94 RMB [1][3]. Core Views - The company has shown strong national expansion momentum, with Q2 performance exceeding expectations. In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.873 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 44.19%, and a net profit of 1.731 billion RMB, up 56.17% year-on-year [2][3]. - Q2 revenue reached 4.391 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.88%, with net profit increasing by 74.62% to 1.067 billion RMB [2][3]. - The company is accelerating its national expansion, with over 3.6 million terminal points established across the country, and the introduction of new products is contributing significantly to growth [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 7.873 billion RMB, a 44.19% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.731 billion RMB, a 56.17% increase year-on-year. Q2 alone saw revenue of 4.391 billion RMB, up 47.88% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.067 billion RMB, up 74.62% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 improved by 1.5 percentage points to 44.6%, with Q2 gross margin increasing by 3.3 percentage points to 46.05% due to lower raw material prices and enhanced scale effects [2][3]. Product and Market Expansion - The company’s flagship energy drink, Dongpeng Special Drink, generated revenue of 3.75 billion RMB in Q2, a 36.4% year-on-year increase, while other beverages saw a remarkable 193.8% increase in revenue [2][3]. - The new product "Brew Water" has shown rapid growth, with revenue of 480 million RMB year-to-date, a staggering 381.1% increase year-on-year, and is expected to surpass 1 billion RMB for the full year [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 15.221 billion RMB, 19.270 billion RMB, and 23.953 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 35.15%, 26.60%, and 24.31% [4][6]. - The report anticipates that the company will maintain its momentum through further expansion into provincial markets and the introduction of new product lines, including sugar-free tea and coconut juice, enhancing its product matrix [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.87 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.73 billion yuan, up 56.2% year-on-year, slightly exceeding the upper limit of the earnings forecast [2] - In Q2 2024, revenue reached 4.39 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.9%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.07 billion yuan, a 74.6% increase year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to achieve high growth in H2 2024, driven by strong sales momentum and sufficient orders, with a historical high level of contract liabilities at 2.5 billion yuan as of June [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024E, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 15.38 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 36.59% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.92 billion yuan in 2024E, reflecting a growth rate of 43.16% [4] - The report forecasts a diluted EPS of 7.30 yuan for 2024E, with a PE ratio of 31.22 [4] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 46.1%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a decrease in raw material prices [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.873 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 44.19%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.731 billion yuan, up 56.17% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on deepening its market presence in Guangdong while accelerating its national expansion, with Q2 2024 revenue reaching 4.391 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.89% [2]. - The product line expansion is showing significant results, with "Dongpeng Water" revenue growing by 281.13% year-on-year to 476 million yuan in H1 2024 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company’s revenue from the Guangdong region increased by 14.99% to 1.193 billion yuan, while revenue from the Guangxi region rose by 19.17% to 276 million yuan [2]. - The company’s gross profit margin improved by 3.31 percentage points to 46.05% in Q2 2024, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 74.66% to 1.067 billion yuan [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to maintain good growth in the energy drink market nationwide, with projected EPS for 2024-2026 at 7.55, 9.37, and 11.16 yuan, respectively [4]. - The corresponding P/E ratios for these years are estimated at 30, 24, and 20 times based on the closing price of 227.94 yuan per share on August 30, 2024 [4]. Market Expansion - The company is optimizing its distribution system and enhancing its business team outside Guangdong, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth [4]. - The company’s other beverage revenue surged by 193.84% year-on-year to 630 million yuan, accounting for 14.37% of total revenue, an increase of 7.14 percentage points year-on-year [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-B" and is maintained [1][2] Core Views - The company continues to experience high growth, with a 44.19% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2024, reaching 78.73 billion yuan, and a 56.17% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 17.31 billion yuan [1] - The company is focusing on a multi-category strategy, with significant growth in its new product lines, particularly the "Dongpeng Water" series, which saw a revenue increase of 281.12% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain its strong performance and gradually transition from a single-category to a multi-category beverage enterprise, leveraging its brand, channel, and scale advantages [2] Revenue Analysis - In H1 2024, the Dongpeng Special Drink series generated 68.55 billion yuan in revenue, a 33.49% increase, with the 500ml gold bottle being a major contributor [1] - The company has implemented a nationwide sales strategy, achieving significant revenue growth across various regions, with the East China region seeing a 53.60% increase [1][2] Profit Analysis - The company's gross margin for Q2 2024 was 46.05%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to economies of scale and a decrease in raw material prices [2] - The net profit margin reached a historical high of 24.29%, reflecting effective cost control and improved financial performance [2] Financial Forecast - The company's revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 152.55 billion yuan, 196.66 billion yuan, and 247.64 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 35.4%, 28.9%, and 25.9% [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 29.13 billion yuan, 38.24 billion yuan, and 48.27 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 42.8%, 31.3%, and 26.2% [2][3]

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 08 月 31 日 证券研究报告•2024 年半年报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：227.94 元 东鹏饮料（605499）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 产品多元化发展，盈利能力再创新高 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024 年半年报，上半年实现营业收入 78.7 亿元，同比增长 44.2%；实现归母净利润 17.3亿元，同比增长 56.2%；实现扣非归母净利润 17.1 亿元，同比增长 72.3%。其中 24Q2实现营业收入 43.9亿元，同比增长 47.9%； 实现归母净利润 10.7亿元，同比增长 74.6%；实现扣非归母净利润 10.8亿元， 同比增长 101.5%。此外，公司拟向全体股东每 10股派发现金红利 25元（含税）， 以资本公积金向全体股东每 10 股转增 3 股。 产品、区域营收结构持续优化。1、分品类看，2024H1东鹏特饮、东鹏补水啦、 其他饮料分别实现收入 68.5 亿元（+33.5%）、4.8 亿元（+281%）、5.3 亿元 （+172%），补水啦及其他饮料合计占比达 12.8%，新品进一步放量。 ...