从资金流向上来看，当日饮料乳品板块主力资金净流出1.3亿元，游资资金净流出7487.42万元，散户资金 净流入2.05亿元。饮料乳品板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603156 | 乔元饮品 | 29.40 | -5.62% | 18.32万 | 5.41亿 | | 002570 | 贝因美 | 6.37 | -0.62% | 37.53万 | 2.37亿 | | 002910 | 庄园牧场 | 10.71 | -0.37% | 12.26万 | 1.31亿 | | 605499 | 东鹏饮料 | 301.00 | -0.33% | 1.33万 | 4.00亿 | | 920786 | 骑士乳业 | 9.89 | -0.10% | 3.85万 | 3782.76万 | | 002329 | 皇氏集团 | 3.69 | 0.00% | 11.66万 | 4293.30万 | | 300106 | 西部牧业 | 11.20 | 0.18% | 5.63万 | ...

格隆汇10月22日｜国盛证券研报指出，东鹏饮料为能量饮料龙头，成长曲线充足。性价比产品匹配需 求，人群场景持续拓圈。功能饮料作为饮料板块增长最快的子赛道，随着消费人群、场景持续拓圈，行 业空间广阔，东鹏有望凭借产品性价比、数字化方面优势持续强化龙头地位。在传统大单品东鹏特饮的 基础上，积极布局东鹏补水啦、果之茶等第二产品曲线，势头强劲。此外，港股上市有助于公司积极拓 展海外市场，有望带来新的市场增量空间。作为A股饮料龙头，行业空间广阔，增长势能强劲，首次覆 盖给予"买入"评级。 ...

证券之星消息，10月22日饮料乳品板块较上一交易日上涨0.15%，养元饮品领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3913.76，下跌0.07%。深证成指报收于12996.61，下跌0.62%。饮料乳品板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603156 | 养元饮品 | 31.15 | 4.92% | 26.54万 | | 8.35 Z | | 002910 | 庄园牧场 | 10.75 | 2.38% | 22.68万 | | 2.43亿 | | 002329 | 皇氏集团 | 3.69 | 1.37% | 17.40万 | | 6417.70万 | | 600429 | 三元股份 | 4.88 | 1.04% | 9.19万 | 4486.11万 | | | 600597 | 光明乳业 | 8.61 | 0.94% | 9.86万 | 8483.20万 | | | 603711 | 香飘飘 | 13.05 | 0.62% | 2.15万 | 2809.81万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the liquor sector, indicating a bottoming out phase with potential for recovery in the future [2]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant decline in sales, with an expected drop of over 20% in overall sales volume. However, there are signs of month-on-month improvement, and the decline is narrowing [5][9]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are showing strong recovery in payment collection, with over 80% collection rates, while regional brands are performing adequately [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality liquor brands that are likely to recover faster, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, while also highlighting the need to monitor companies undergoing significant changes [6][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Q3 Accelerated Decline and Bottoming Out - The liquor sector is facing a 20%+ decline in sales due to external demand shocks, with a gradual improvement expected in the coming months [5][9]. - High-end liquor brands are expected to show resilience, with Moutai projected to achieve a 3% revenue growth in Q3, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 20% revenue decline [10][11]. - The report indicates that companies are adjusting their strategies to reduce channel pressure and improve operational efficiency [9][10]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Overall Demand Weakness, Structural Resilience - The consumer goods sector is experiencing overall weak demand, but segments like snacks and beverages are showing higher resilience [17][24]. - The report notes that while the demand for dairy and beer remains stable, the restaurant supply chain is still under pressure [17][24]. - Raw material prices are generally declining, which may provide some cost relief to companies in the sector [24][25]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Liquor Bottoming Catalysts and Selective Consumer Goods Trends - The report suggests focusing on liquor companies that are at the bottom of their cycles, with Moutai and Fenjiu being primary recommendations [6][9]. - For consumer goods, the report highlights the potential of snack and beverage companies, recommending brands that are well-positioned to benefit from current trends [6][17].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The "14th Five-Year" plan may set a GDP growth target, with a high probability of establishing a target around 5% initially, potentially adjusting to 4.5-5% in the later years [3] - The average GDP growth rate during the "14th Five-Year" period is expected to be around 4.8%, based on medium to long-term growth goals and potential growth rates [3] - Macro policies need to remain relatively expansionary to achieve these targets, particularly focusing on increasing leverage, expanding consumer demand, and stabilizing property prices [3] Group 2: Beverage Industry - Dongpeng Beverage - Dongpeng Beverage is a leading energy drink company, with a strong growth trajectory, achieving a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.63% [4] - The company has diversified its product line, launching successful products like Dongpeng Water and Fruit Tea, and plans to initiate an H-share listing in 2025 to expand into overseas markets [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.45 billion, 5.77 billion, and 7.14 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of 33.6%, 29.7%, and 23.8% respectively [4] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment has seen a significant decline, with a 13.9% year-on-year drop in the first nine months of 2025, marking the largest decline in the current cycle [6] - The investment amount has decreased by nearly 40% compared to the same period in 2021, indicating a prolonged impact on the economy [6] - The report suggests that policy measures will likely continue to be proactive to restore market confidence, especially in light of the upcoming central meetings [7] Group 4: Coal Industry - Coal prices have shown a notable increase due to supply constraints from production checks and extreme weather conditions, with coal production down 1.8% year-on-year in September [8] - The report highlights that the tightening of supply is expected to continue, leading to a probable upward trend in coal prices [8] - The coal sector is anticipated to experience improved operational capabilities as prices recover, with recommendations for companies like Yancoal Energy and Jinkong Coal [12] Group 5: Communication Sector - Zhongbei Communication - Zhongbei Communication is expanding from 5G infrastructure to intelligent computing, leveraging its established customer relationships and project experience to drive revenue growth [14] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the AI development wave, with projected revenues of 3.4 billion, 4 billion, and 4.5 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [14] Group 6: Non-ferrous Metals - Shenhuo Co. - Shenhuo Co. reported a revenue of 31 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, although net profit decreased by 1.4% due to lower coal prices [15] - The company is expected to see enhanced profitability in the aluminum segment due to rising aluminum prices and decreasing electricity costs [15]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage, a leading player in the A-share market with a market capitalization of 156.5 billion RMB, is making another attempt to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after its initial prospectus submitted in April 2025 expired. The updated prospectus shows impressive financial performance, but there is a significant divide in market perception regarding the health implications of its core product, energy drink Dongpeng Special Drink [1][4]. Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage's projected revenues for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are 8.5 billion RMB, 11.26 billion RMB, and 15.83 billion RMB, respectively. In the first half of 2025, the revenue reached 10.7 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year growth of 36.5%. The net profits for the same years are projected at 1.44 billion RMB, 2.04 billion RMB, and 3.33 billion RMB, with a compound annual growth rate of 52.0%. In the first half of 2025, net profit was reported at 2.37 billion RMB [1][2]. Market Position - Dongpeng Beverage holds a 26.3% market share in China's functional beverage industry, ranking first among the top five companies. The sales volume of its energy drinks is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 41.9% from 2022 to 2024, with 2024 sales reaching 3.08 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.1% [2][3]. Health Concerns - There are growing concerns regarding the health implications of Dongpeng Special Drink, particularly related to its high sugar content and potential health risks. Reports indicate that some consumers have experienced health issues, such as elevated uric acid levels and diabetes, after regular consumption. However, there is currently no direct evidence linking these health problems to the drink [5][14]. Consumer Behavior - Many consumers express a sense of dependency on Dongpeng Special Drink, with reports of individuals consuming multiple bottles daily. This dependency raises questions about the long-term health effects of such consumption patterns [6][10]. Product Composition - Dongpeng Special Drink contains ingredients such as taurine, caffeine, and high levels of sugar, with each 500ml bottle containing 66.5g of sugar, exceeding the recommended limit. The drink's formulation has been approved by health authorities, but its high sugar content poses potential health risks [12][15]. Marketing Strategies - The company employs aggressive marketing strategies, including promotional activities that encourage repeat purchases. These strategies have been criticized for potentially increasing consumption among vulnerable populations, particularly minors [20][22]. Social Responsibility - As Dongpeng Beverage navigates its path to a public listing, it faces the challenge of balancing commercial success with social responsibility, particularly in addressing the health concerns associated with its products [25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [9] Core Views - The economic landscape continues to show resilience, with GDP growth in the first three quarters reaching 101.50 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Despite a marginal decline in growth rate to 4.8% in Q3, the overall economic stability is supported by new productive forces and effective macro policies [4] - Retail sales growth has slowed down, with total retail sales from January to September at 36.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. In September alone, retail sales were 4.20 trillion yuan, growing by only 3.0% [5] - The beverage sector is performing strongly, with a focus on new consumption opportunities driven by retail channel transformations. Key companies to watch include Huashang Auntie, Tea Baidao, and others [6] Summary by Sections Economic Overview - GDP growth has shown resilience despite external challenges, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% in the first three quarters [4] - The Q3 GDP growth rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points, attributed to external tariff policy changes and transitional pains in various industries [4] Retail Sales Performance - Total retail sales for the first nine months reached 36.59 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.5% year-on-year. September's retail sales were 4.20 trillion yuan, reflecting a slowdown to 3.0% growth [5] - The decline in growth is linked to the reduced impact of the "old-for-new" policy and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival [5] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several companies with strong recovery expectations in the consumer goods sector, including Weilai Delicious, Ximai Foods, and Youyou Foods [6] - The beverage sector is noted for its robust performance, with a focus on companies like Dongpeng Beverage and others, as well as the impact of new birth policies on dairy demand, highlighting companies such as Yili and Mengniu [6]

Group 1 - The food ETF (515710) showed stable performance with a price increase of 0.16% and a trading volume of 11.51 million yuan, bringing the fund's latest scale to 1.313 billion yuan [1] - Key performing stocks included Yunnan Energy Investment, Luzhou Laojiao, and New Dairy Industry, with increases of 1.8%, 1.25%, and 1.11% respectively [1] - Conversely, Yanjing Beer, New Nuo Wei, and Miao Ke Lan Duo experienced declines of 4.56%, 2.32%, and 1.64% respectively [1] Group 2 - Data from the double festival period indicated strong liquor consumption, with JD Seven Fresh reporting a 109% year-on-year increase in liquor sales, and Douyin's liquor sales up 58% month-on-month [1] - The release of the twelve fragrance standard sample aims to further standardize the industry's quality system [1] - Guizhou Moutai is enhancing brand experience through a wine tourism integration project, promoting innovation in consumption scenarios [1] Group 3 - According to Guotai Junan, the food and beverage industry is primarily driven by growth, with beverage leaders maintaining structural prosperity under the influence of major products [1] - The white liquor industry is experiencing a "low expectation, weak reality" state, with the third-quarter reports being a crucial observation window [1] - As external factors diminish and liquor companies adjust strategies, the industry may enter a substantial destocking cycle, with channel confidence expected to improve [1] Group 4 - According to招商证券, Q3 white liquor sales improved month-on-month, but the financial reports continue to show clearing, with government and business demand under pressure [2] - The performance of consumer goods is mixed, with snacks, beverages, pets, and health products showing good momentum, while traditional consumer goods like dairy, condiments, and beer remain flat [2] - The cost side shows a continued decline in raw material prices, although the rate of decrease is narrowing, while packaging prices have increased month-on-month [2] Group 5 - The food ETF (515710) and its linked funds passively track a segmented food index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Wuliangye, Guizhou Moutai, Yili, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Haitian Flavoring, Dongpeng Beverage, Yanghe, Jinshiyuan, and Gujing Gongjiu [2]

摘要：基本盘既强大又脆弱（欢迎关注闺蜜财经） 撰文｜蜜妹 这是闺蜜财经的第1720篇原创 首次失效仅6天，东鹏饮料再次向港交所主板提交上市申请书。 招股书用连续四年中国功能饮料企业销量第一、36.5%的收入年复合增速、52%净利CAGR等耀眼指标，勾勒出一幅"高增长+高盈利"的完美图景。 然而，在快消品行业"量价齐升"故事愈发稀缺的当下，这位长期用"一条腿"走路的巨人，真有看上去那么美吗？ 01 东鹏饮料的崛起，堪称我国功能饮料行业的"草根逆袭"样本。凭借"累了、困了、喝东鹏特饮"的模仿式广告打法，以及500ml PET瓶装的高性价比策略，该 司在红牛等国际品牌占据主导的市场中撕开缺口。 翻阅其招股书，蜜妹看到一个近乎完美的增长曲线：2022年至2024年间，东鹏饮料的营收从85亿元升至逾158亿元，净利润更是从14.4亿元跃升至33.3亿元。 2025年上半年情况有点变化：营收107.37亿元，同比增加36.37%，但增速相比2024年同期略有下滑；归母净利润23.75亿元，同比增加37.22%，同比2024年 的增速更是腰斩不止。这是否意味着增长开始走下坡路了？还有待观察。 "魔鬼"还藏在品类收入的细分表 ...

Market Overview - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a slight decline of 0.05% on October 20, with New Dairy leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3863.89, up 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12813.21, up 0.98% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the beverage and dairy sector included: - Yangyuan Beverage: closed at 29.69, up 3.38% with a trading volume of 177,200 shares and a turnover of 524 million yuan [1] - Western Pastoral: closed at 11.23, up 2.93% with a trading volume of 67,600 shares and a turnover of 75.06 million yuan [1] - Other gainers included Caobo Daobu, Huanlejia, and Qishi Dairy, all showing positive performance [1] - Conversely, New Dairy saw a significant decline of 4.36%, closing at 17.10 with a trading volume of 73,000 shares and a turnover of 126 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector saw a net inflow of 151 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 66.42 million yuan [2] - Major stocks with significant capital flow included: - Yili Group: net inflow of 65.81 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 51.30 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Dongpeng Beverage: net inflow of 56.42 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors also showing a net outflow [3] - Yangyuan Beverage and other stocks also reflected similar trends in capital flow [3]