Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Eastroc Beverage with a target price of Rmb 333.00, indicating an expected upside from the current price of Rmb 276.89 [2][6]. Core Insights - Eastroc Beverage is experiencing rapid growth in its second curve, continuously progressing towards becoming a platform-based company. The company achieved a revenue of Rmb 16.844 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.1%, with a net profit of Rmb 3.761 billion, up 38.9% year-on-year [3][11]. - The core category of energy drinks is facing pressure, with revenue growth slowing to 15.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025. However, new product categories such as electrolyte drinks and low-sugar tea are driving significant growth, contributing to a more balanced revenue structure [4][12]. - The company has successfully expanded its product matrix, reducing reliance on a single core product. New products accounted for 16.9% of total revenue in Q1-Q3 2025, indicating a shift towards a more diversified portfolio [4][12]. Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin was 45.2% in Q3 2025, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. However, effective expense control and improved operational leverage have led to a net profit margin increase to 22.7%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [5][13]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are Rmb 20.88 billion, Rmb 25.39 billion, and Rmb 30.03 billion, respectively, with net profit forecasts of Rmb 4.57 billion, Rmb 5.77 billion, and Rmb 6.89 billion, reflecting strong growth rates [6][15]. Market Strategy - Eastroc Beverage is focused on multi-category, national, and global strategies, with emerging markets such as North China, East China, and Southwest China showing over 30% year-on-year revenue growth. The company aims to consolidate its leading position in the beverage market and move towards becoming a comprehensive beverage group [5][14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [22] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the liquor industry has significantly declined, entering a rapid clearing phase, but demand is expected to show weak recovery as policy pressures ease [3] - The industry is currently at a low valuation level, with pessimistic expectations fully priced in, indicating a clearer direction for future industry clearing [3] - The introduction of new tax policies in the gold sector is expected to benefit companies with brand and channel advantages, leading to a concentration of demand towards leading enterprises [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry index decreased by 0.56%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.08% [4][6] - Among the sub-sectors, pre-processed foods led with a gain of 2.26%, while soft drinks saw the largest decline at -1.20% [4][9] Liquor Sector Insights - Guizhou Moutai announced a mid-term dividend of approximately 30 billion yuan and a buyback plan of 15-30 billion yuan, enhancing shareholder returns [4] - Guizhou is promoting a shift in the liquor industry from "selling liquor" to "selling lifestyle," aiming to upgrade the industry from traditional manufacturing to cultural experience [4] Gold Sector Developments - The new tax policy for gold sales, effective from November 1, is expected to increase costs for non-member companies, potentially shifting demand towards leading firms with membership qualifications [4] Consumer Goods Focus - The report suggests focusing on high-growth consumer goods companies, such as Wancheng Group and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expected to receive valuation premiums due to their growth trajectories [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][15]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, driven by low valuations, low institutional holdings, and a low base effect. The sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index for three consecutive years, and any changes in supply and demand dynamics could catalyze stock price increases [15][17]. - The report identifies three key judgments for 2026: 1) The sector's dividend attributes are becoming evident, with room for valuation expansion; 2) C-end consumption remains the industry’s foundation, but B-end and business scenarios may recover faster; 3) Health-focused innovative products and digital supply chains will be core growth drivers [15][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector saw a slight decline of 0.38% this week, with A-shares down 0.54% and H-shares up 1.88%. The top gainers included Anji Food (+13.87%) and Huifa Food (+13.07%) [1][3]. 2. Sub-sector Analysis - **Alcohol**: The sector is in a left-side layout phase, with recommendations for companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, which are expected to benefit from national expansion [2][10]. - **Beverages**: The beverage sector is experiencing continued growth, with strong performance from leading companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage. The report recommends focusing on dairy products, particularly Yili, due to stable demand recovery [2][14]. - **Food**: The snack segment shows strong growth potential, particularly in konjac snacks, with leading companies like Weidong and Yanjin Puhui demonstrating competitive advantages [2][12]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining the investment portfolio, which includes Guizhou Moutai, Baba Food, Dongpeng Beverage, Weidong, and Luzhou Laojiao, as these companies are expected to outperform the market [3][18]. 4. Earnings Forecasts - Guizhou Moutai is projected to have a revenue of CNY 183.52 billion in 2025, with a net profit of CNY 90.59 billion, reflecting a growth of 5.4% year-on-year [19][20]. - Luzhou Laojiao is expected to see revenue growth of 3.1% in 2026, with a net profit forecasted to increase by 4.3% [20]. 5. Market Trends and Catalysts - Recent industry catalysts include the Central Economic Work Conference and various alcohol distributor conferences, which are expected to influence market dynamics positively [3][10].

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is positive, with expectations of returns exceeding the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [19]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is currently under pressure, with a 0.49% decline in the SW food and beverage index, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries [11]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in consumer confidence and sales, particularly in the liquor sector, which may lead to valuation recovery [14]. - The October CPI has turned positive year-on-year, indicating a potential improvement in consumer spending and market conditions [5]. Summary by Sections Sub-industry Ratings - No ratings are provided for liquor, beverages, and food categories [3]. - Recommended companies include: - Guizhou Moutai: Increase holdings - Shanxi Fenjiu: Increase holdings - Guming: Buy - Mixue Group: Increase holdings - Ximai Food: Buy - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy [3]. Industry Performance - The SW food and beverage sector saw declines in beer, soft drinks, and other liquor categories, with the highest gains in pre-processed foods, meat products, and baked goods [11]. - Notable stock performances include: - Top gainers: Anji Food (+13.87%), Huifa Food (+13.07%), Babi Food (+11.32%) - Top losers: Bai Run Shares (-4.33%), Gujing Gongjiu (-5.43%), Jiao Da Ang Li (-5.54%) [11]. Liquor Sector Insights - The liquor sector is expected to see a bottoming out of its fundamentals, with a focus on sales recovery points [14]. - Guizhou Moutai announced a mid-term dividend plan of CNY 30 billion and a share buyback plan of CNY 1.5-3 billion [14]. - Current prices for Moutai products are CNY 1,660 for Feitian Moutai and CNY 810 for Wuliangye, showing slight declines [17]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The consumer goods sector is showing signs of marginal improvement, with notable stock performances from Anji Food, Huifa Food, and Babi Food [5]. - The CPI for October increased by 0.2% year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery in consumer spending [5]. - Recommended stocks for the medium to long term include Guming, Mixue Group, Ximai Food, and Dongpeng Beverage [5].

Investment Rating - Investment advice favors growth targets in beverages, food ingredients, and snacks, while revising expectations for Chinese baijiu [6][18]. Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on low valuation and high dividend yielding stocks within the soft drink sector, indicating potential for fundamental and valuation recovery as competition eases and consumer power improves [10][18]. - Chinese baijiu sector shows a significant decline in Q3, with revenues down 18% year-on-year and net profits down 22%, indicating a need for destocking and potential for market stabilization [7][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative supply and channel strategies among liquor companies to seek growth despite demand pressures [8][18]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Focus on flexible targets in Chinese baijiu such as ZJLD, Shede Spirits, and Luzhou Laojiao, while mid-term stable targets include Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai [6][18]. - In the beverage sector, key growth targets include Eastroc Beverage and Nongfu Spring, alongside high dividend, low valuation options like Uni-President China and Want Want China Holdings [6][18]. - Snack and food ingredient growth targets include Three Squirrels and Guilin Seamild Foods, while beer targets include Tsingtao Brewery and China Resources Beer Holdings [6][18]. Baijiu Sector Analysis - Q3 reports indicate a significant revenue decline for the baijiu sector, with Moutai emphasizing high-quality growth and announcing a new dividend and buyback plan to boost market confidence [7][8][18]. - The report notes that the industry is still in a destocking phase, with potential for capital markets to bottom out early despite ongoing demand pressures [7][18]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The soft drink sector is highlighted for its high return on equity (ROE) and good cash flow characteristics, making it a quality dividend asset [10][18]. - Recent performance of Uni-President China shows a profit of RMB 2.01 billion for Q3, marking a 23.06% year-on-year increase, indicating strong growth potential [11][18].

Core Viewpoint - The evaluation results of information disclosure for listed companies in 2024 show a decline for Dongpeng Beverage, dropping from "Excellent" to "Qualified" compared to 2023 [1] Company Overview - Dongpeng Beverage Group Co., Ltd. is located in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, and was established on June 30, 1994, with its listing date on May 27, 2021 [1] - The company's main business involves the research, production, and sales of beverages, with revenue composition as follows: Energy drinks 77.87%, Electrolyte drinks 13.90%, Other beverages 8.17%, Others 0.06% [1] - Dongpeng Beverage belongs to the food and beverage industry, specifically in the soft drink sector, and is associated with concepts such as new retail, value growth, hundred-yuan stocks, large-cap stocks, and margin trading [1] Evaluation Results - In the 2024 evaluation, Dongpeng Beverage received a grade of "C," which is a decline from "A" in 2023 and "B" in 2022 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is pursuing a second listing application on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, despite having substantial cash reserves, indicating a strategic move to enhance its capital structure and support international expansion [3][10]. Financial Position - As of the end of 2024, the company holds cash and cash equivalents of 5.653 billion yuan and trading financial assets of 4.897 billion yuan, totaling 14.223 billion yuan in cash-like assets [3][6]. - The company reported a revenue of 10.737 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.375 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, both showing over 30% year-on-year growth [6]. - Short-term borrowings surged to 6.128 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio climbing to 61.86% [6][7]. Strategic Intent - The funds raised from the IPO, approximately 1.493 billion yuan, will be allocated to enhance production capacity, upgrade the supply chain, strengthen brand development, and expand into overseas markets [3][10]. - The company aims to address growth bottlenecks through internationalization and diversification, as domestic beverage market growth slows [10][12]. Market Dynamics - Dongpeng's international revenue contribution is currently less than 0.3%, despite a revenue target of over 15.8 billion yuan for 2024 [10][11]. - The company is investing in Southeast Asia, with plans for a logistics hub in Hainan and a factory in Indonesia, which requires significant capital [11][12]. Capital Management - The company is engaging in a strategy of "financial management" by utilizing low-interest short-term loans while investing in higher-yield financial products, indicating a sophisticated approach to capital efficiency [6][7]. - The cash flow situation shows a decline in operating cash flow by over 20% compared to the previous year, raising concerns about the sustainability of cash reserves [7][10]. Shareholder Dynamics - Since the lifting of the lock-up period in 2022, shareholders have reduced their holdings by over 5 billion yuan, indicating potential pressure on the company to perform [7][9]. - The actions of major shareholders, including significant reductions in their stakes, reflect a complex sentiment regarding the company's future [8][9]. Challenges Ahead - The dual-market strategy may face scrutiny regarding the necessity of fundraising given the company's substantial cash reserves [14][16]. - The long-term investment in overseas markets may not yield immediate returns, raising concerns about the efficiency of capital utilization [14][16]. - The company must navigate the competitive landscape in Southeast Asia, where established players like Red Bull pose significant challenges [14][16].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector is actively releasing pressure on financial statements, with the industry gradually bottoming out. The frozen food sector is witnessing a turning point, while the soft drink and snack sectors maintain high levels of prosperity [3][4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - The liquor sector's total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 319.23 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.76%, with net profit down 6.85% to CNY 122.67 billion. In Q3 alone, revenue fell 18.38% to CNY 78.48 billion, and net profit dropped 22.00% to CNY 28.09 billion [14][28] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai showed stable growth, while others like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao faced significant declines. Moutai's revenue grew by 9.28% year-on-year, while Wuliangye's fell by 10.26% [17][19] - The second-tier liquor brands, such as Fenjiu, showed resilience with a revenue increase of 5.00%, while others like Shui Jing Fang and Shede experienced declines [26][22] 2. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector saw significant growth, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage reporting a 34.13% increase in revenue year-on-year. The energy drink segment, particularly, showed robust growth [30][31] - The introduction of new flavors and products, such as Dongpeng's summer limited edition, contributed to the sustained high growth rates in this sector [30] 3. Dairy Products - The dairy sector, led by Yili, maintained stable performance despite high base effects, with significant growth in milk powder and cold drink products. New Dairy's low-temperature products continued to show double-digit growth [4][31] 4. Frozen Foods - The frozen food industry is experiencing a turning point, with companies noting that the price war has peaked. The focus is shifting towards rational competition and value [7][30] 5. Snacks - The snack sector is undergoing strategic adjustments, with member stores and instant retail becoming key growth channels. The overall consumption environment remains weak, but the snack sector is adapting with targeted strategies [7][30]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage conducted two block trades on November 5, totaling 338,700 shares with a transaction value of 81.32 million yuan, at a price of 240.12 yuan, reflecting an 11.00% discount compared to the closing price of the day [2] Trading Summary - The total transaction volume for the two block trades was 338,700 shares, with a total transaction value of 81.32 million yuan [2] - The transaction price was 240.12 yuan, which is an 11.00% discount relative to the closing price of the day [2] - Over the past three months, Dongpeng Beverage has recorded a total of seven block trades, amounting to 636 million yuan [2] Market Performance - On the same day, Dongpeng Beverage's closing price was 269.80 yuan, showing an increase of 1.12% [2] - The daily turnover rate was 0.41%, with a total transaction amount of 570 million yuan [2] - The net inflow of main funds for the day was 15.72 million yuan, while the stock has seen a cumulative decline of 5.66% over the past five days, with a total net inflow of 18.75 million yuan [2] Margin Trading Data - The latest margin financing balance for Dongpeng Beverage is 426 million yuan, which has increased by 57.17 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth of 15.52% [2] Company Background - Dongpeng Beverage (Group) Co., Ltd. was established on June 30, 1994, with a registered capital of 520.013 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage's stock price increased by 1.12% to close at 269.80 yuan, with significant block trades occurring on November 5 [1] Trading Activity - Two block trades were executed, totaling 338,700 shares and a transaction value of 81.32 million yuan [1] - The first trade involved 84,700 shares at a price of 240.12 yuan, amounting to 20.34 million yuan, with a discount rate of -11.00% [1] - The second trade involved 254,000 shares at the same price of 240.12 yuan, totaling 60.99 million yuan, also with a discount rate of -11.00% [1] Recent Performance - Over the past three months, Dongpeng Beverage has recorded a total of seven block trades, with a cumulative transaction value of 636 million yuan [1] - In the last five trading days, the stock has declined by 5.66%, while the net inflow of main funds amounted to 25.28 million yuan [1]