| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002946 | 新乳业 | 17.11 | 1.97% | 6.53万 | | 1.11亿 | | 600882 | 妙可蓝多 | 27.08 | 1.08% | 3.31万 | | 8925.22万 | | 300915 | 海融科技 | 26.31 | 1.04% | ● 1.25万 | | 3282.39万 | | 603156 | 养元饮品 | 21.40 | 0.61% | 2.39万 | | 5093.95万 | | 002329 | 皇氏集团 | 3.74 | 0.54% | 20.81万 | | 7727.02万 | | 605337 | 李子园 | 12.71 | 0.47% | 4.89万 | | 6195.35万 | | 002570 | 贝因美 | 7.09 | 0.42% | 116.13万 | | 8.17亿 | | 002732 | 草庫乳业 | 17.17 | 0.41% | 2.47万 | | 4 ...

(1)贵州茅台（600519）：短期白酒需求下移，但公司将深化改革进程，以更加务实的姿态，强调未来 可持续发展。公司分红率提升，此轮周期后茅台可看得更为长远。(2)山西汾酒：汾酒短期面临需求压 力，但中期成长确定性较高。汾牌产品结构升级同时杏花村、竹叶青同时发力，全国化进程加快。(3) 西麦食品（002956）：燕麦主业稳健增长，线下基本盘稳固，新渠道开拓快速推进。原材料成本迎来改 善，预计盈利能力有望提升。(4)万辰集团（300972）：量贩零食业态持续渗透，门店数量持续扩张。 同时拓展折扣超市新店型，选品新增冻品、潮玩、日用品等，聚焦年轻消费者目标人群，有望助力公司 延续高成长。(5)百润股份（002568）：预调酒处于改善趋势当中，威士忌已实现较好铺货，建议关注 后续公司鸡尾酒回款改善和新品催化逻辑。 天风证券本周建议(含个股)： 【酒类板块】推荐强α&持续享受集中度提升红利的酒类酒企：山西汾酒/贵州茅台等。【大众品】在Q2 大众品板块业绩低基数背景下，我们继续看好符合"降本增效"(成本下行+内控效率提升)/"市占率提升 (高成长赛道+拓品类+拓渠道)"的强α公司，建议关注：东鹏饮料（605499）/农 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the liquor sector, traditionally seen as a stable investment, has recently caused significant pressure for fund managers, leading to a reevaluation of strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Manager's Performance - Xiao Nan, a senior fund manager at E Fund, manages over 30 billion yuan and has faced challenges with the liquor sector impacting fund performance [1][2]. - The fund managed by Xiao Nan has seen a decline of 6.29% this year, while the average of similar funds has increased by 15.37% [2][4]. - Over the past year, two years, and three years, the fund has underperformed the market, indicating difficulties in both bullish and bearish market conditions [2][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Adjustments - In the second quarter report, Xiao Nan acknowledged the negative impact of increasing exposure to liquor stocks on fund performance, admitting a cognitive bias towards high-quality assets [3]. - The report highlighted that leading liquor companies have compromised long-term brand value for short-term performance, resulting in significant price declines [3]. - To improve fund performance, Xiao Nan reduced holdings in low-end liquor and beer stocks while increasing allocations in agriculture and beverage sectors, indicating a shift towards more defensive and fundamentally supported investments [3].

金融界消息 截至2025年8月13日收盘，东鹏饮料（605499）报收于291.75元，上涨0.01%，换手率 0.3%，成交量1.57万手，成交金额4.55亿元。 资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流出3619.09万元，占比成交额7.95%。其中，超大单净流出3268.20万 元、占成交额7.18%，大单净流出350.90万元、占成交额0.77%，中单净流出流入4062.49万元、占成交 额8.92%，小单净流出443.40万元、占成交额0.97%。 来源：金融界 东鹏饮料最新一期业绩显示，截至2025中报，公司营业总收入107.37亿元、同比增长36.37%，归属净利 润23.75亿元，同比增长37.22%，扣非净利润22.70亿元，同比增长33.02%，流动比率0.896、速动比率 0.847、资产负债率61.86%。 天眼查商业履历信息显示，东鹏饮料(集团)股份有限公司，成立于1994年，位于深圳市，是一家以从事 酒、饮料和精制茶制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本52001.3万人民币，实缴资本40001万人民币。公司 法定代表人为林木勤。 通过天眼查大数据分析，东鹏饮料(集团)股份有限公司共对外投资了29家 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Master Kong's management has slightly lowered its revenue guidance for the full year of 2025, expecting revenue to remain flat to slightly increase, while maintaining a core profit growth expectation of over 10% [1] - The report shows that Master Kong's instant noodle business has resumed year-on-year growth since July, and its market share is stabilizing [1] - However, the beverage business (including ready-to-drink tea, juice, and bottled water) is expected to face intense competition in the third quarter [1] Group 2 - Daiwa believes that the success of Dongpeng Beverage (605499) in the sweet tea beverage category may intensify competitive pressure on Master Kong's beverage business [1] - As a result, Daiwa has lowered the target price for Master Kong from HKD 12 to HKD 11 and reiterated a "underperform" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, expecting an overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index in the next six months [19]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in high-growth sectors driven by capital flow, with the food and beverage sector rising by 0.6% this week, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth and undervalued recovery opportunities within the food and beverage sector [7]. Summary by Sections Sub-industry Ratings - No specific ratings for liquor, beverages, and food sub-industries, but several companies are recommended for investment: - Guizhou Moutai: Buy - Luzhou Laojiao: Buy - Shanxi Fenjiu: Hold - Jiansi Yuan: Hold - Yingjia Gongjiu: Hold - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy - Nongfu Spring: Buy - Mixue Group: Hold - Lihigh Food: Buy - Angel Yeast: Buy [3][18]. White Wine Sector - The white wine index increased by 0.38%, indicating a bottoming phase, with expectations for a local rebound despite ongoing policy and demand pressures [15]. - Guizhou Moutai's limited edition product sold out quickly, generating approximately 1.79 billion yuan in sales [5]. - The report suggests capitalizing on low valuation recovery opportunities in the white wine sector, recommending Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Jiansi Yuan [15]. Consumer Goods Sector - The snack and soft drink sectors have shown significant rebounds, attributed to previous valuation pressures and adjustments in mid-year expectations [16]. - Unified Enterprises reported a 10.6% revenue increase and a 33.2% net profit increase in H1 2025, exceeding market expectations [17]. - The report recommends focusing on high-growth snack and beverage companies, particularly Dongpeng Beverage, Mixue Group, and Nongfu Spring, while also considering undervalued stocks like Angel Yeast and Lihigh Food [16][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [5][4]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase of 0.75% during the week of August 4 to August 8, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.37 percentage points [20][1]. - The report highlights the pressure on demand within the liquor industry, prompting companies to innovate and diversify their product offerings to meet consumer needs [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-year performance reports, indicating that companies are focusing on inventory reduction and sales promotion strategies in the short term while planning for long-term consumer engagement and market expansion [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Industry - Companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye are actively launching new products to adapt to changing consumer preferences, with Moutai's recent product launch achieving significant sales [2][11]. - The report notes that the liquor sector is entering a critical phase for mid-year performance reporting, with expectations of inventory reduction and improved sales strategies [2][13]. - Key investment themes include established leaders with proven resilience, companies showing positive feedback from digital initiatives, and those with potential market share growth [2][13]. 2. Consumer Goods - The beer and beverage sectors are entering a peak season, with expectations for strong performance in mid-year reports [3][14]. - The report indicates a shift in the snack industry towards a model driven by product categories and channels, highlighting the need for brands to enhance their market penetration capabilities [3][15]. - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies in the seasoning and frozen food sectors, which are expected to perform steadily [3][16][17]. 3. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a gradual recovery in demand, supported by favorable policies and improved supply dynamics [3][18]. - The report suggests that leading dairy companies are well-positioned to benefit from the expected demand rebound in 2025 [3][18]. 4. Beverage Sector - The beverage industry is expected to maintain a favorable outlook, with significant growth opportunities in sugar-free tea and energy drinks [3][19]. - The report highlights the performance of leading companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expected to accelerate their market presence [3][19].

当下，饮料市场正迎来一场消费潮流的变革，大包装饮料凭借其独特的优势，逐渐成为消费者的新选择，市场热 度持续攀升。东鹏饮料敏锐捕捉到这一趋势，推出的"果之茶"系列产品，以多样化的规格和出色的品质，赢得了 消费者的广泛认可。 凯度消费者指数指出，2024年家庭聚会、露营、办公会议三大场景合计贡献61%的大规格销量，预计2025年将突 破70%。天猫超市数据亦佐证，1L及以上规格饮料上半年销售额同比增长93%，复购率高达29%。欧睿国际预 测，到2026年，1升及以上即饮茶市场份额将突破25%。这些数据充分印证了大包装饮料在各场景中的高渗透率和 消费者的高认可度，市场前景广阔。 在这一市场趋势下，各大饮料品牌纷纷布局大包装产品，即饮茶领域竞争尤为激烈。众多品牌均推出大包装即饮 茶产品，试图抢占市场份额。然而，在激烈的竞争中，东鹏饮料推出的"果之茶"系列的果味茶饮料凭借独特的产 品优势和精准的营销策略，迅速崭露头角，成为市场的新宠。 "果之茶"多维发力，质价比优势构筑壁垒 东鹏饮料新品果之茶 大包装饮料受热捧，多场景需求驱动增长 尼尔森IQ数据显示，截至2025年6月，大于等于1L即饮饮料销售额占比已升至18.7%， ...

8月6日晚间，东鹏饮料(605499)披露半年报，2023年上半年营收净利齐增，实现营业收入54.6亿元，同 比增长27.24%；净利润11.08亿元，同比增长46.84%。 从业绩变动方向来看，金枫酒业、桂发祥、一鸣食品、佳隆股份等4家上市公司实现扭亏为盈。其中， 桂发祥预计上半年净利为3800万元~4200万元，而去年同期为亏损4434.5万元，业绩增幅明显。公司表 示，上半年把握消费市场、旅游市场复苏机遇，在产品端、渠道端、品牌端均进行了优化和升级，主业 持续恢复并稳步提升，营业收入亦实现了大幅增长。 对板块业绩贡献颇大的上市酒企上半年亦有多家报喜。"白酒一哥"贵州茅台半年度实现营收695.76亿 元，净利润为359.8亿元，同比增幅均为20.76%。山西汾酒预计上半年营收为190.11亿元，同比增长约 23.98%；净利润67.75亿元，同比增长约35.15%，青花汾酒系列等中高端产品实现较快增长。今世缘预 计上半年营收、净利分别为59.7亿元、20.5亿元左右，同比增幅分别为28.46%、26.7%。 当然，白酒业绩分化仍然明显。顺鑫农业预计上半年亏损5500万元至1.1亿元，同比由盈转亏；金种子 ...

Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for 2022-2024 is projected to be 8.5 billion, 11.257 billion, and 15.83 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of - / 32.4% / 40.6%. In the first half of 2025, total revenue reached 10.737 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.37% [1] - Gross profit margins for 2022-2024 are 41.6%, 42.3%, and 44.1%, with a margin of 45.15% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 0.55 percentage point increase attributed to lower raw material prices [1] Product Aspects - Dongpeng Special Drink remains the company's primary product, contributing 8.361 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.91%, with a gross margin of 50.61% [2] - The introduction of "Bushuila" in 2023 has shown rapid growth, achieving sales of approximately 4 billion in its first year and projected to reach about 15 billion in 2024, contributing around 1.5 billion in the first half of 2025 [2] Regional Revenue - The company has a solid base in Guangdong, with rapid growth in national markets. In the first half of 2025, revenue contributions from various regions were Guangdong (2.546 billion), North China (1.708 billion), East China (1.536 billion), and Central China (1.377 billion), with year-on-year growth rates of 20.61%, 73.03%, 32.62%, and 28.91% respectively [3][4] Sales and Marketing Strategies - Sales expenses have increased significantly, with 2022-2024 expenses at 1.449 billion, 1.956 billion, and 2.681 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.91%, 34.94%, and 37.09% [6] - The company has implemented a "one yuan exchange" promotion to enhance consumer repurchase desire, benefiting both consumers and retail stores [7] Market Trends - The energy drink market in China has significant growth potential, with per capita consumption at 2.8 liters per year compared to higher rates in the US, Japan, and Thailand [15] - The functional beverage sector is becoming increasingly crowded, with competitors like Red Bull, Monster, and new entrants like Dali Foods' "Lehu" [18][20] Financial Structure - The company has a high debt level, with liabilities increasing significantly, particularly short-term loans, which reached 6.551 billion in 2024 [26] - Despite high cash reserves, the company has been criticized for high dividends amidst rising debt, potentially transferring risk to minority shareholders [26] Ownership Structure - The company is gradually becoming a family business, with the founder's family holding approximately 67.71% of shares, while institutional ownership has decreased significantly over recent years [23][25]