Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of the home appliance market in China this year is unprecedented, with many manufacturers facing severe operational challenges and some factories not producing normally [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" national subsidy policy is accelerating market reshuffling and leading to the elimination of weaker competitors [3]. - The home appliance industry is entering a mature phase, resulting in sluggish market demand and an inability for all manufacturers to sustain growth [3][4]. - Major players like Haier, Midea, and TCL have benefited from the subsidy policy, gaining market share and enhancing brand influence [3][4]. Group 2: Challenges for Manufacturers - Many smaller manufacturers are struggling, with some factories halting production since Q4 of last year and seeking alternative business opportunities [4]. - The competitive landscape is shifting towards a "stronger getting stronger" scenario, where larger firms dominate and smaller firms face increasing pressure [4][5]. - Manufacturers lacking competitive strength are advised to focus on their core competencies and avoid unnecessary expansions or investments [4][5]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Companies should remain calm and focused on their familiar market segments while exploring niche opportunities [5]. - There is a need for manufacturers to avoid price wars and seek new avenues for growth, potentially in overseas markets [5]. - Quick and efficient decision-making is crucial in the fast-changing market environment to capitalize on competitive opportunities [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Technology is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - TCL Technology reported a revenue of 164.823 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.47%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.564 billion yuan. In Q1 2025, the revenue was 40.076 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.42%, and a net profit of 1.013 billion yuan, a significant increase of 321.96% [2][6] - The photovoltaic segment showed improvement, with TCL Zhonghuan reporting a net loss of 9.818 billion yuan in 2024, and a loss of 1.906 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a 49% quarter-on-quarter improvement. This aligns with previous expectations of reduced losses [2][12] - The large-size LCD segment experienced both volume and price increases, while OLED turned profitable. The acquisition of LG's Guangzhou line and the repurchase of minority shareholder equity contributed positively to the company's fundamentals [12] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, TCL Technology's total revenue is projected at 164.963 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 19.218 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 12%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.564 billion yuan, with an EPS of 0.08 yuan [18] - The financial forecasts for 2025 and 2026 indicate a revenue increase to 201.570 billion yuan and 225.171 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 5.930 billion yuan and 9.177 billion yuan, leading to EPS of 0.32 yuan and 0.49 yuan [18] - The company is expected to maintain a stable gross margin, with projections of 12% in 2025 and 14% in 2026 [18] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - TCL Technology achieved significant market positions in various segments, ranking second globally in TV panel shipments and display panel shipments, first in LTPS notebook and tablet shipments, and fourth in flexible OLED smartphone panel shipments [12] - The company is enhancing its competitive edge through improved production capacity and operational efficiency, with TCL Zhonghuan's silicon wafer capacity reaching 200GW by the end of Q1 2025 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry [11] Core Insights - The semiconductor sector has reached a historical high in holdings, driven by the trend of self-sufficiency and the impact of Deepseek's computational capabilities [2][6] - The overall allocation to the electronic sector has increased, with the semiconductor segment being the primary driver of this growth [6][18] - Despite the positive outlook for semiconductors, other segments such as electronic products and components have seen slight reductions in allocation due to tariff uncertainties [2][8] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector continues to show strong year-on-year growth, with major players receiving increased allocations [7][41] - The trend of computational power shifting from cloud to edge is benefiting leading companies in the AI edge supply chain, such as Zhaoyi Innovation and Hengxuan Technology [7][41] - SMIC, as a core player in the domestic self-sufficiency trend, has also seen significant increases in holdings [7][41] Electronic Products & Components - The electronic products and components sector has experienced a reduction in allocations due to tariff-related uncertainties affecting export directions [8][45] - Despite this, high-performing stocks like Winbond Technology have seen increased allocations due to strong earnings [8][45] - The overall demand for consumer electronics, including smartphones and PCs, is recovering, which may lead to a rebound in the sector if tariff tensions ease [8][45] Display Devices - The display device sector has seen a slight decrease in holdings, although panel prices have been on a mild upward trend since Q3 2024 [9][49] - Major players like TCL Technology and BOE have experienced noticeable declines in their holding ratios, while other display device companies have received increased allocations [9][49] - The outlook for panel prices remains stable, with expectations for continued growth in Q2 2025 [9][49]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Technology is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the profitability of the panel business continues to improve, and there are expectations for a recovery in the photovoltaic business [5] - In 2024, TCL Technology reported a revenue of 164.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.56 billion yuan, down 29.4% [4][5] - The semiconductor display business has shown significant improvement, with a revenue of 104.3 billion yuan in 2024, up 25% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.23 billion yuan, an increase of 62.4 billion yuan [5] - The photovoltaic segment, TCL Zhonghuan, reported a revenue of 28.4 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 52%, with a net profit of -9.82 billion yuan [5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 40.08 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, up 322% [5] Financial Summary - For 2024, TCL Technology's operating cash flow was 29.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6% [5] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 6.52 billion, 10.02 billion, and 13.20 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.35, 0.53, and 0.70 yuan [7] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 196.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.9% [9] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.6% in 2024 to 15.9% by 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Technology is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the profitability of the panel business continues to improve, and there are expectations for a recovery in the photovoltaic business [5] - In 2024, TCL Technology reported a revenue of 164.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.56 billion yuan, down 29.4% [4][5] - The semiconductor display business has shown significant improvement, with a revenue of 1.04 billion yuan in 2024, up 25% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.23 billion yuan, an increase of 62.4% [5] - The photovoltaic segment, TCL Zhonghuan, faced challenges with a revenue of 28.4 billion yuan, down 52%, and a net profit of -9.82 billion yuan [5] - In Q1 2025, TCL Technology achieved a revenue of 40.08 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, up 322% [5] Financial Summary - For 2025, the expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.52 billion yuan, with an EPS of 0.35 yuan, and a P/E ratio of 11.95 [7][9] - The report forecasts revenue growth for the years 2025 to 2027, with expected revenues of 196.1 billion yuan in 2025, 211.1 billion yuan in 2026, and 227.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 18.9%, 7.6%, and 7.8% respectively [9] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.6% in 2024 to 15.9% by 2027 [9] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 2.9% in 2024 to 20.3% in 2027 [9]

Core Viewpoint - TCL Technology reported a revenue of 165 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-over-year decline of 5% [1] - The company achieved a gross margin of 11.7%, down 3.0 percentage points year-over-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 29% compared to expectations of 2.48 billion yuan, primarily impacted by the new energy photovoltaic business [1] - For Q1 2025, TCL recorded a revenue of 40.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 13.3%, up 1.7 percentage points year-over-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, and a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, a significant increase of 322% year-over-year [1] Group 1: Q1 2025 Performance - The display business achieved a revenue of 27.5 billion yuan in Q1 2025, an 18% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 329% year-over-year and 30% quarter-over-quarter [2] - The improvement in the display business was mainly driven by national subsidy policies, leading to a simultaneous increase in both volume and price of LCD panels [2] - The company maintained a strong position in the large-size panel market, ranking second globally, with the highest market share in 65-inch and 75-inch products, and an increase in the shipment proportion of 65-inch and above products to 58% [2] Group 2: Q2 2025 Outlook - For Q2 2025, the company expects stable prices for large-size LCD panels despite a recent slowdown in customer orders, as production control measures will be implemented [2] - The company anticipates an acceleration in the expansion of mid-size IT and automotive businesses as the T9 production line reaches full capacity, which will further increase the revenue share from mid-size products [2] - The OLED business is expected to see continued improvement in profitability in Q2 2025 due to strong orders from high-quality clients and an increase in the shipment proportion of high-end OLED products [2] Group 3: Target Price and Ratings - The company maintains a target price of 5.80 yuan and a "buy" rating, with a 3% and 32% upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, respectively, to 6.84 billion yuan and 10.63 billion yuan [3] - The introduction of a profit forecast for 2027 is set at 13.73 billion yuan, with expected BPS of 3.20, 3.76, and 4.49 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3] - The target price is based on a 1.81x PB for 2025, reflecting a premium over the comparable company average of 0.86x, driven by an increase in global market share of LCD panel capacity [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the launch of 11 recommended products that enhance convenience and enjoyment in daily life, emphasizing practical features over technical specifications [3][59]. Product Highlights - **OPPO Find X8 Ultra**: Features dual periscope telephoto lenses for comprehensive zoom capabilities, a durable 2K flat screen, and a 6100mAh battery with 100W fast charging [4][6]. - **OnePlus 13T**: A compact phone with a 6.3-inch display, Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 processor, and a 6200mAh battery, offering excellent performance and durability [7][9]. - **iPhone 16s**: Incorporates AI features with the A18 chip, a new camera control button, and a titanium body, although it maintains a 60Hz refresh rate [11][12]. - **MOVA X40 Pro**: A cleaning machine with a 90°C hot water spray function, designed for efficient cleaning of tough stains [13][14]. - **TCL Q10L Pro TV**: Features a nearly borderless design and advanced picture quality with a 7000:1 contrast ratio, aimed at enhancing viewing experiences [17][18]. - **OPPO Watch X2 Mini**: A compact smartwatch with health monitoring features and a stylish design, catering to users seeking both functionality and aesthetics [19][21]. - **Insta360 X5**: A versatile camera with advanced tracking capabilities and high-quality image performance, suitable for content creators [22][26]. - **Dengshi N9**: A family-oriented electric vehicle with ample storage and advanced driving features, addressing the needs of modern families [27][30]. - **Xiaomi SU7 Ultra**: A high-performance electric vehicle with impressive acceleration and advanced safety features, targeting tech-savvy consumers [31][35]. - **Wuling Bingguo PLUS**: An affordable electric vehicle with practical features and low operating costs, appealing to budget-conscious consumers [36][38].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 5.80 RMB [6][4]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows significant improvement in profitability, driven by government subsidy policies that have led to an increase in both volume and price for LCD panels [1][2]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 3% and 32% respectively, reflecting better-than-expected supply-demand dynamics in the panel industry [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 165 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, with a gross margin of 11.7% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.56 billion RMB, down 29% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 40.1 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 13.3%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.01 billion RMB, up 322% year-on-year [1][2]. Business Segments - The display business generated revenue of 27.5 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising 329% year-on-year [2]. - The company holds the second-largest global market share in large-size TV panels, with the highest market share in 65-inch and 75-inch products, and an increasing shipment ratio of 58% for products 65 inches and above [2]. Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, the company expects stable pricing for large-size LCD panels despite a slowdown in customer orders, as production control measures are anticipated to be implemented [3]. - The company aims to accelerate the expansion of its mid-size IT and automotive businesses as its T9 production line reaches full capacity, which is expected to enhance revenue from these segments [3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of 5.80 RMB is based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.81x for 2025, compared to a peer average of 0.86x, reflecting the company's increasing global market share in LCD panel production [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.36 RMB, with a return on equity (ROE) of 5.72% [10].

以下文章来源于TrendForce集邦 ，作者TrendForce TrendForce集邦 . TrendForce集邦咨询是一家全球高科技产业研究机构，研究领域横跨存储器、AI服务器、集成电路与半 导体、晶圆代工、显示面板、LED、AR/VR、新能源（含太阳能光伏、储能和电池）、AI机器人及汽车 科技等，提供前瞻性行业研究报告、产业分析 根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新调查，受美国对等关税政策影响，电视品牌业者2025年下半年可能间 接转嫁上涨的成本至零售价，从而抑制消费动能。此外，2024年下半年中国市场的以旧换新政策 提前释放部分需求，预估2025年全球电视出货量将年减0.7%，仅剩1亿9,644万台。 品牌提前备货，1Q25电视出货量年增6.1% 观察三星电子、LG电子、TCL、海信等四大电视品牌出货动态，因应对美国计划提高商品进口关 税，且最初拟针对墨西哥提高至25%，品牌业者于2024年底开始提高北美地区出货量，进入2025 年第一季淡季力道仍然强劲，出货量达4,559万台，年增6.1%，四大品牌在美国渠道商的库存水位 也较平均增加三至四周。 关税带动1H25出货，下半年旺季面临不确定性 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for Mini LED TVs is rapidly increasing in China, driven by government subsidy policies and a significant rise in shipments, which are expected to impact global pricing and market dynamics [2][6][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Mini LED TVs have a global market share of 3% as of 2024, while traditional LCD TVs dominate at 94% [6]. - The average price of a 55-inch Mini LED TV is $901, positioned between LCD TVs at $501 and OLED TVs at $1,317 [6]. - In the last quarter of 2024, shipments of Mini LED TVs to China reached 2.02 million units, a 2.3-fold increase compared to the previous quarter, accounting for 65% of global shipments [6][9]. Group 2: Government Policies and Consumer Behavior - China's subsidy policy for replacing old appliances has significantly boosted the sales of Mini LED TVs, with subsidies ranging from 15% to 20% of the purchase price [6][9]. - Larger screen sizes, such as 85-inch and 98-inch TVs, receive higher subsidies, leading to increased sales and potential supply shortages for certain components [7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Prior to 2023, the Mini LED TV market was largely dominated by Samsung, but Chinese companies like TCL and Hisense have rapidly gained market share, reaching 25% and 24% respectively in 2024, surpassing Samsung's 20% [9]. - Sony is increasing its supply of Mini LED TVs in Japan, with plans to boost production significantly, while reducing OLED TV supply [13]. Group 4: Pricing Trends - The price of 98-inch Mini LED TVs has decreased by 49% year-on-year, dropping to $3,374 in the last quarter of 2024, indicating a trend of declining prices in the segment [11][12]. - The shift towards larger TVs is leading to a commoditization of the market, with expectations of continued price reductions [12].