文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 2025年初以来，美国大幅"抢进口"，但"累库存"现象相对滞后。展望未来，美国"抢进口"能否持续，"安 全"库存水平会否提升？ 热点思考： 美国经济："消失的"库存？ 一、2025年初以来，美国累库幅度大幅落后于"超额进口" 年初以来，美国"抢进口"现象极为显著。 特朗普胜选以来，随着加征关税预期升温，美国"抢进口"现象 极为显著。中国出口、美国进口、港口数据对"抢进口"现象均有所反映。5月12日中美日内瓦谈判以来， 中国-美国集装箱预订量大幅提升，新一轮"抢进口"已拉开序幕。 但是，一季度美国补库幅度远弱于商品进口，库存"去哪儿了"？ 美国一季度GDP中，商品进口拖累经济 增速5个百分点（环比年化），但库存仅拉动GDP增速2.6个百分点，幅度仅为商品进口的一半。从月度 数据角度来看，美国商品进口增速也远超库存增速。 二、如何理解美国库存与进口的分歧？一季度内需稳健+库存统计滞后 内需韧性和统计的滞后性可解释"消失"的库存。 1）一季度，美国多数行业库存增速提升，但由于美国 内需保持韧性，尤其是投资需求，导致库销比相对稳定。3月，美国商业库销比仅为1.3 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance and valuation of Shenwan Hongyuan, with a current stock price of 4.79 yuan and a rolling PE ratio of 20.68, marking a new low in 13 days [1][2] - The total market capitalization of Shenwan Hongyuan is reported at 119.941 billion yuan, with the company ranking 18th in the securities industry based on PE ratio, which averages 26.16 for the industry [1][2] - As of the first quarter of 2025, 41 institutions hold shares in Shenwan Hongyuan, including 30 funds, with a total holding of 1,701,857,510 shares valued at 83.902 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported an operating income of 5.479 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.54%, while net profit reached 1.977 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 42.50% [2] - The company’s main business includes corporate finance, personal finance, institutional services, trading, investment management, and various financial products, with a strong emphasis on compliance and innovation [1] - Shenwan Futures has received the highest A-class AA rating from the CSRC for five consecutive years, along with over 30 awards, enhancing its brand influence in the market [1]

Group 1 - The Chinese e-commerce market is transitioning from a phase dominated by incremental growth to a mature stage that balances both incremental and stock growth, with online retail sales of physical goods expected to reach 13.1 trillion yuan in 2024, growing at a rate of 6.5% [1][2] - The number of online shopping users is projected to reach 974 million by the end of 2024, with a penetration rate of 87.9% among internet users, indicating a saturated market [2] - Key indicators in live-streaming e-commerce, including transaction scale, user scale, and consumption growth rate, are declining year by year, intensifying competition among major players [2] Group 2 - Recent policies have been introduced to support offline business models, aiming to expand domestic demand comprehensively by 2025 [3] - Diverse and innovative offline business formats can enhance brand influence and consumer loyalty, providing new growth points for brands [3] Group 3 - The Chinese offline beauty market has potential for growth, with a market structure that can be upgraded, as evidenced by the decline in market share of department stores from 38.2% in 2018 to 27.2% in 2023 [4] - The market share of beauty specialty stores and health and personal care stores remains stable at around 7%, showing a slight downward trend, while supermarkets account for only about 3% of the overall market share [4] Group 4 - Leading domestic brands are focusing on differentiated offline strategies, such as Up Beauty's balanced multi-brand matrix, Shanghai Jahwa's extensive layout in department stores, and Proya's offline energy series [5] - Other notable brands include Betaini, which leverages pharmacy endorsements for a professional image, and Maogeping, which creates a unique high-end brand experience [5]

Group 1 - The controller sector has shown significant overselling, and the fundamentals are improving, indicating potential for both performance and valuation recovery [1] - Historical analysis of the controller sector shows that stock price performance is highly sensitive to earnings and raw material price fluctuations, with recent years facing challenges from external factors [2] - The sector is expected to return to stable growth in 2025, with a simultaneous recovery in earnings and valuations [2] Group 2 - Hesai Technology reported a first-quarter delivery of nearly 200,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 231%, with revenue of 530 million yuan, up 46.3% [3] - In the first quarter, Hesai's ADAS product deliveries reached 146,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 178.5%, with strong growth in the Robotaxi and consumer robot markets [3] - Suoteng Juchuang's net losses are narrowing, with laser radar product sales in the robotics sector increasing by 183% year-on-year, driven by E1R and Airy sales [4]

Group 1: Leadership Changes - Wang Sheng has been appointed as the new General Manager of Shenwan Hongyuan Research, succeeding Zhou Haichen, who will continue to oversee research and institutional business [1][3] - Wang Sheng has over 16 years of experience at Shenwan Hongyuan, having started as an analyst in the construction sector and has held multiple roles including Chief Strategy Analyst [2][3] - Zhou Haichen, the former General Manager, has been promoted to a position on the Executive Committee of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, indicating a shift in leadership dynamics [1][3] Group 2: Research Expansion and Strategy - Despite challenges in the sell-side research sector, Shenwan Hongyuan Research has expanded its team, bringing in several leading figures in the industry [1][5] - The firm has a history of innovative practices, including the establishment of a point system and a senior analyst growth mechanism, which have evolved over nearly 20 years [6] - Wang Sheng emphasizes the importance of a balanced approach in research management, focusing on enhancing the "research product" concept to better meet client needs [7] Group 3: Market Outlook and Research Focus - Wang Sheng believes that the Chinese capital market is poised for a long-term bull market, driven by the rise of technology companies and advancements in artificial intelligence [4][5] - The research institute aims to integrate artificial intelligence into its operations, focusing on data systems and algorithmic improvements to enhance research methodologies [8] - The emphasis will be on developing a more agile and responsive research framework that aligns with the high demands of the financial investment landscape [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience and growth potential of the Chinese capital market amidst global uncertainties, highlighting the importance of strategic preparation and the rise of new economic forces in technology [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Resilience and Growth - The Chinese capital market is expected to experience a long-term bull market, driven by improved corporate governance, increased shareholder returns, and a focus on both investment and financing functions [4][6]. - The rise of Chinese technology companies, such as Huawei and ByteDance, is creating opportunities for growth in the new economy, with indices like the Hang Seng Tech Index and domestic innovation boards entering a new valuation era [4][6]. - External uncertainties may enhance China's international influence, with Chinese goods becoming symbols of quality and strength, which is significant for boosting domestic demand [5][6]. Group 2: Research and Development Focus - The company aims to strengthen the concept of "research products," emphasizing a customer-centric approach and the integration of policy and commercial logic in research recommendations [7][8]. - There is a focus on enhancing data capabilities and intelligent research methodologies, leveraging big data, algorithms, and computational power to improve research efficiency and accuracy [9][10]. - The company recognizes the need for foresight in research, especially in the context of artificial intelligence's growing role in quantitative investment, advocating for strategic and long-term thinking [8][10]. Group 3: Leadership and Management Philosophy - The role of leadership in the research sector is multifaceted, requiring a balance of innovation, strategic oversight, and effective management to drive the research agenda [11]. - The company emphasizes a collaborative approach to management, focusing on building a strong research ecosystem and fostering a culture of continuous improvement [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese capital market is expected to enter a long bull market, driven by improved ROE returns and the increasing influence of leading brands, even if GDP growth slows to a medium-high rate [3][4]. - Wang Sheng has been appointed as the new General Manager of Shenwan Hongyuan Research, succeeding Zhou Haichen, and aims to explore a more flexible and agile organizational structure to empower analysts [1][5]. - The research institute will focus on intelligent investment research, leveraging big data, algorithms, and computing power to enhance its research methodologies and frameworks [6]. Group 2 - The Chinese capital market is characterized by a well-designed top-level structure, improved corporate governance, and a rising awareness of shareholder returns, with dividends and buybacks exceeding financing for three consecutive years [3][4]. - The emergence of Chinese technology companies, such as Huawei and ByteDance, is creating a unique opportunity for growth in the new economy sector, coinciding with the global advancement of artificial intelligence [4]. - Wang Sheng emphasizes the importance of stable teams, solid research styles, and systematic frameworks in building client trust within the sell-side research sector [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese capital market is expected to enter a long-term bull market, driven by external challenges that strengthen the economy and enhance market resilience [4][5]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Wang Sheng has been appointed as the new General Manager of Shenwan Hongyuan Research, succeeding Zhou Haichen, who will continue to oversee research and institutional business [1]. - Wang Sheng holds a PhD in management from Tongji University and has extensive experience in strategy research and analysis [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The Chinese capital market is anticipated to grow stronger, with improved corporate governance and increased shareholder returns, as evidenced by dividends and buybacks exceeding financing for three consecutive years [4]. - The rise of Chinese technology companies, such as Huawei and ByteDance, alongside advancements in artificial intelligence, presents a unique opportunity for the market [4]. Group 3: Research Development - Wang Sheng emphasizes the need to enhance the "research product" concept, focusing on quality and customization to better serve clients [6]. - The research team aims to integrate artificial intelligence into their methodologies, improving data processing and analysis capabilities [7].

Core Viewpoint - The leadership transition at Shenwan Hongyuan aims to enhance research quality and align with national development strategies, emphasizing the importance of sustainable growth and innovation in the research sector [1][2] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Zhou Haichen is no longer the General Manager of Shenwan Hongyuan Research, with Wang Sheng taking over the role, responsible for overall management [1] - Liu Jian, the Chairman, highlighted Wang Sheng's professional capabilities and commitment to customer service, indicating a focus on high-quality research and the importance of party leadership in guiding research efforts [1] Group 2: Research Focus and Strategy - The research department is expected to deepen its role in supporting national strategies, enhance data capabilities, and develop intelligent research methodologies [2] - The goal is to optimize the "investment research + production research + policy research" system to contribute to the establishment of a first-class investment bank and investment institution [2] Group 3: Commitment to Quality and Innovation - The new leadership is tasked with continuing the legacy of the "century-old team" spirit, focusing on macro trends and industrial changes while optimizing research models [1] - There is a strong emphasis on deep, forward-looking research to expand the brand influence of the research department [1]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, 24 securities firms assisted in 43 IPO projects, raising a total of 26.634 billion yuan [1] - The top three firms by project count are Huatai United, Guotai Junan, and CITIC, each sponsoring 5 projects [1] - By fundraising amount, CITIC leads with 4.087 billion yuan, followed by Huatai United with 3.879 billion yuan and Guotai Junan with 2.160 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The total underwriting and sponsorship fees reached 1.966 billion yuan, with six firms exceeding 100 million yuan in fees [1] - The leading firms in underwriting and sponsorship fees are Huatai United (254 million yuan), CITIC (207 million yuan), and Guotai Junan (176 million yuan) [1] - Other notable firms in the fee rankings include Shenwan Hongyuan (141 million yuan) and Dongxing (116 million yuan) [1]