智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，考虑康耐特光学(02276)自主品牌的快速发展和XR业务的潜 在增量，该行上调公司2025-2026年归母净利润预测至5.28/6.36亿元(前值为5.00/5.93亿元)，新增2027年 归母净利润预测7.62亿元，2025-2027年归母净利润分别同比增长23.3%/20.4%/19.8%，当前市值对应 2025-2027年PE分别为19.0/15.8/13.2X，维持"买入"评级。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 公司为镜片制造领军企业，产品SKU矩阵完善，上下游合作关系稳固，供应链优势明显 公司公告2024年报业绩表现符合预期，实现收入20.61亿元，同比增长17.1%，归母净利润4.28亿元，同 比增长31.0%，其中2024H2实现收入10.84亿元，同比增长16.8%，归母净利润2.20亿元，同比增长 30.3%。公司全年累计派息每股0.28元，对应分红率30%。近年来公司积极发力国内市场和自主品牌， 打造增长新动能，差异化产品占比提升，带动盈利能力持续改善。智能眼镜蓬勃发展，公司积极布局具 备先发优势，歌尔连续认购、收购公司股权，彰显产业链认可，同时有望赋能公司 ...

按照2023年的商品销售额及门店数量计算，古茗是中国排名第一的大众现制茶饮店品牌，也是中国第二 大现制茶饮店品牌。在浙江、福建及江西率先实现关键规模的省份以及每个地级市，古茗在全价格带市 场排名第一。截至2024年底，古茗的门店数量达9914家门店，加盟店贡献收入的97%。公司80%的门店 位于二线及以下城市，41%的门店位于乡镇，在低线城市及乡镇的影响力尤为显著。该行看好古茗的产 品创新能力，基于地域加密策略的供应链效率，具备吸引力的股东回报，以及开店潜力。 申万宏源发布研报称，首次覆盖古茗(01364)给予买入评级。古茗当前股价高于港股餐饮股16-18倍的估 值，低于港股茶饮公司蜜雪集团(02097)26倍的估值。考虑到古茗在内业的冷链供应链优势，在中国还 有14个省份尚未进入带来的潜在开店空间，以及股东回报，该行认为公司值得一定的估值溢价，给予 2025年PE估值25倍，计算得出的目标价为21.2港币。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 研发能力强，产品更新快 古茗以"每天一杯喝不腻"为核心理念，主打果茶和奶茶饮品。凭借强大的研发能力，古茗每年推出众多 新品，且新品成功率较高。在截至2023年的三个年度中，十大畅 ...

在当前复杂多变的市场环境下，A 股市场的走向备受关注。近日，中央汇金公司再次增持 ETF 并表示 未来继续增持，这一举措引发了市场的广泛关注。为此，市场零距离栏目采访了申万宏源证券研究所副 所长、首席策略分析师王胜，就汇金增持及当前 A 股市场相关问题进行了深入探讨。 今年以来，在科技领域突破性进展不断落地的当下，中国资产的价值重估已成为市场共识。从市场表现 来看，无论A股还是港股市场，近期相较全球市场均走出独立行情，估值修复态势显著。那么，全球市 场巨震之下，中国资产的价值重估的节奏是否会打乱？二季度是震荡筑底、稳步回升还是有其他可能？ 对此，王胜指出，展望二季度的走势，中国推行积极财政政策，同时拥有充足的货币政策工具，再加上 以DeepSeek为代表的AI发展进入到新阶段，多重因素将为上市企业盈利托底。他指出，尽管外部不确 定性弥漫，二季度A股或仍稳步回升。长期来看，A股仍有很大希望从"结构牛"演绎至"全面牛"。他指 出，后续在宏观政策上，如何通过刺激内需对冲国内出口产业链的压力，如何用更好的财政政策发挥作 用，包括降准或者降息组合拳的落地都值得期待。 中央汇金公司增持 ETF 并表示未来继续增持，旨在发 ...

申万宏源首席策略分析师傅静涛表示，近年来，中央汇金多次表态力挺A股市场。2023年10月中央汇金 两次表态支持A股市场。2023年10月11日，中央汇金表示：近日已在二级市场增持工商银行、农业银 行、中国银行、建设银行的A股股份，并将在未来六个月继续增持。2023年10月23日，中央汇金表示： 今日买入交易型开放式指数基金（ETF），并将在未来继续增持。这样的表态，直接中断了2023年5月 之后A股自我强化的悲观预期，使得市场预期趋于平稳，行情演绎回归中性客观。另外，2024年2月6 日，中央汇金表示：充分认可当前A股市场配置价值，已于近日扩大交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）增 持范围，并将持续加大增持力度、扩大增持规模，坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。彼时，中央汇金加码稳 定资本市场预期，同时着力点更加均衡，价值和成长风格兼顾，使得市场摆脱了悲观预期和资金供需的 负循环，直接触发了A股2024年春节前后的反弹行情。 4月7日，中央汇金再次及时公告称：公司坚定看好中国资本市场发展前景，充分认可当前A股配置价 值，已再次增持了交易型开放式指数基金，未来将继续增持，坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。这是中央汇 金积极发挥平准基金 ...

美股"财富效应"的传导机制：居民收入和消费倾向。1)居民收入方面，股息收入与股市表现有关，但占 居民收入比重仅8%，短期资本利得不计入居民收入;2)消费倾向方面，根据历史规律，美国居民储蓄率 与净值/可支配收入呈现负相关关系，即股市增值可提升消费意愿。 股市"财富效应"或仅影响高收入群体的消费能力和倾向。美居民消费更多由高收入群体贡献，80-100% 收入分位的高收入群体贡献消费的39%，消费倾向接近50%。高收入群体的股息收入占比更大，持有权 益资产更多，最高1%收入分位群体的资产中公司权益占比达45.6%; 三、定量视角下，美股"财富效应"有多大，股市下跌是否会对经济形成"负反馈"? 申万宏源证券（000562）发布研究报告称，2025年初以来，经济转弱和对等关税冲击之下，美股持续回 调。美股下跌是否会对经济形成"负反馈"、美股大幅回撤是否预示着经济衰退将至? 热点思考：美国经济："跌"出来的衰退? 一、历史上，美股回撤是否预示着经济衰退?更重要的是下跌的原因 年初以来，美股大幅回撤，距离"熊市"或仅剩临门一脚。2月19日以来，标普500和纳指分别回调17.4% 和22.3%;根据SEC定义，"熊市"指市 ...

截至2025年4月3日收盘，申万宏源(000166)报收于4.96元，上涨0.2%，换手率0.31%，成交量69.87万 手，成交额3.46亿元。 当日关注点 交易信息汇总 资金流向显示，2025年4月3日，主力资金净流出2502.41万元，占总成交额7.23%；游资资金净流入 106.53万元，占总成交额0.31%；散户资金净流入2395.88万元，占总成交额6.92%。 公司公告汇总 申万宏源集团股份有限公司发布关于申万宏源证券有限公司2025年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券 （第二期）在深圳证券交易所上市的公告。公告指出，本期债券发行工作于2025年3月27日结束，发行 规模为人民币42亿元。具体分为两个品种，品种一发行规模为人民币24亿元，期限2年，票面利率 1.99%，债券简称"25申证03"，债券代码为"524196"；品种二发行规模为人民币18亿元，期限3年，票面 利率为2.01%，债券简称"25申证04"，债券代码为"524197"。本期债券自2025年4月2日起在深圳证券交 易所上市，面向专业投资者中的机构投资者交易。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由智能算法生成（网信算备3101043 ...

Group 1: Investment Banking Business - The company actively responds to the tightening of industry and refinancing issuance rhythms, maintaining a client-centered approach and leveraging its "research + investment + banking" advantages to provide quality comprehensive financial services. In 2024, the total scale of equity underwriting reached CNY 1.104 billion, with 4 companies underwritten, ranking 2nd in the market for IPO projects approved during the year [2] - The company completed 36 directed issuances and listings on the New Third Board, raising a total of CNY 10.35 billion, ranking 10th in the industry [2] - The bond financing business showed stable growth, with 678 main underwriting cases in 2024, an 18% year-on-year increase, and a main underwriting scale of CNY 281.189 billion, up 7% year-on-year, ranking 8th in the industry [2] Group 2: Investment Trading Business - In 2024, the company achieved a total investment income and fair value changes of CNY 11.154 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.78% [3] - The FICC business adopts a dual-driven model of "principal investment + client trading," focusing on deep research to achieve stable investment returns [3] - The equity and derivatives business adheres to a value investment philosophy, maintaining competitive advantages and adjusting strategies in response to market changes [3] Group 3: International Business Layout - The company has established a comprehensive overseas business platform centered in Hong Kong, extending its services to surrounding overseas markets [4] - In 2024, the company participated in 15 IPO underwriting projects, ranking 6th among Chinese brokers, and completed 312 overseas bond projects, ranking 5th in offshore bond underwriting among Chinese brokers [4] - The company continues to innovate in cross-border transactions and services for investors' cross-border investment and risk management needs [4] Group 4: Wealth Management Business - In 2024, the company focused on its core responsibilities in wealth management, enhancing its service capabilities and product offerings [5][6] - The net income from brokerage services reached CNY 46.03 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.19%, with 763,600 new clients added [6] - By the end of 2024, the market value of client securities custody reached CNY 4.75 trillion, with further improvements in client numbers and asset scale [6] Group 5: Financial Technology Empowerment - The company is advancing its digital transformation, integrating technology applications with business innovation [6] - In 2024, the company invested CNY 1.185 billion in information technology, a year-on-year increase of 9.17% [6] - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency through AI technology and build a standardized, intelligent system while maintaining quality standards [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market and credit bonds in China, focusing on the macroeconomic environment and monetary policy implications for the second quarter of 2025. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Funding Trends**: In Q2 2025, the market funding center is expected to seek a new equilibrium, with funding rates significantly rising compared to Q4 2024. This shift will favor credit bonds as the cash-out leverage strategy stabilizes [2][10][11]. 2. **Central Bank's Stance**: The central bank's cautious approach is a key focus, with expectations of fiscal supply expansion and potential changes in monetary policy due to external factors like tariffs and U.S. de-globalization [2][10][11]. 3. **Bond Market Volatility**: The bond market is anticipated to exhibit high volatility and a fluctuating market characteristic, with single-sided bull market expectations diminishing. The overall market is leaning towards a fluctuating market due to existing debt repayment pressures [2][17][19]. 4. **Credit Bond Opportunities**: Q2 presents significant opportunities in credit bonds, with a supply-demand mismatch expected. The current yield of over 2.3% on existing bonds is attractive compared to the previous year [2][21][28]. 5. **Fiscal Stimulus**: The necessity for increased fiscal stimulus is highlighted, as relying solely on monetary policy is insufficient to address core issues like insufficient credit demand and negative GDP deflator [2][13][14]. 6. **Investment Strategies**: In a high-volatility environment, strategies focusing on credit bond arbitrage and leveraging are more effective. Multi-asset strategies are recommended to enhance returns [2][19][26]. 7. **Local Government Bonds**: 2025 is identified as a significant year for debt resolution, positively impacting local government bonds. Plans to issue 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds are underway, with 1.3 trillion already issued in Q1 [2][28][29]. 8. **Market Dynamics**: The market is characterized by a flattening yield curve, with short-term bonds showing stability while long-term bonds face challenges. The overall market environment is set for a return to normalcy in funding centers [2][5][18][20]. 9. **Credit Risk Monitoring**: Attention is drawn to potential credit risks, especially with a rise in performance warning announcements that could lead to rating downgrades [2][50]. 10. **Investment Recommendations**: Recommendations include focusing on high-yield credit bonds, particularly those with strong fundamentals and short to medium durations, as they are expected to perform better in the current market conditions [2][51][53]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The impact of regulatory changes on the credit bond market, particularly regarding the introduction of credit bond ETFs, which could enhance liquidity and attract more investment [2][25]. - The historical context of different funding phases and their implications for investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of adapting to market conditions [2][27]. - The potential for local government support in the bond market, particularly through land reserve special bonds, which could provide additional funding avenues [2][29].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strict enforcement of the "responsibility upon application" principle for IPOs in China, emphasizing accountability for companies and intermediaries involved in the IPO process, particularly in cases of significant violations [1][2]. Company Summary - Guohong Tools System (Wuxi) Co., Ltd. was established in 2004 and specializes in the research, production, and sales of ultra-high precision CNC tools and integrated circuit packaging wedge-shaped cutting tools [1]. - The company submitted its IPO application to the Shanghai Stock Exchange for listing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in June 2023 but decided to withdraw the application in April 2024, less than a year later [1]. Regulatory Actions - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued four disciplinary actions against Guohong Tools for violations related to its IPO application, resulting in a one-year rejection of its listing application and criticism directed at its sponsor, Shenwan Hongyuan, as well as its auditing and legal advisory firms [1][2]. - Shenwan Hongyuan was found to have inadequately fulfilled its sponsorship responsibilities, including insufficient verification of R&D personnel and investment accuracy, governance deficiencies, and accounts receivable risks [2][3]. Financial Discrepancies - Guohong Tools reported inflated R&D expenditures, with total reported investments of 12.76 million, 15.33 million, and 18.65 million yuan for the years 2020 to 2022, respectively, which accounted for 5.35% of total revenue over three years [2]. - The company misclassified 15 R&D personnel who were actually in non-R&D roles and inaccurately reported R&D expenditures, overstating them by 7.28 million yuan [3].

证券代码：000166 证券简称：申万宏源 公告编号：临2025-25 申 万 宏 源 集 团 股 份 有 限 公 司 关于申万宏源证券有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开 发行公司债券（第二期）在深圳证券交易所上市的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 公司所属申万宏源证券有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发 行公司债券（第二期）（以下简称"本期债券"）发行工作于 2025 年 3 月 27 日结束，本期债券发行规模人民币 42 亿元，其中品种一发行 规模人民币 24 亿元，期限 2 年，票面利率 1.99%；品种二发行规模 人民币 18 亿元，期限 3 年，票面利率为 2.01%。（相关情况请详见公 司于 2025 年 3 月 28 日在《中国证券报》《证券时报》《上海证券报》 和巨潮资讯网 www.cninfo.com.cn 上刊登的公告） 经深圳证券交易所审核，本期债券定于2025年4月2日起在深圳证 券交易所上市，面向专业投资者中的机构投资者交易，品种一债券简 称"25 申证03"，债券代码为"524196"；品种二债券简称 ...