全球视野下的资产配置（上）——申万宏源·2025 资本市场 春季策略会 20250312 摘要 Q&A 申万研究所对 2025 年全球宏观经济环境的主要看法是什么？ 申万研究所认为，2025 年的全球宏观经济环境将受到特朗普贸易政策和美元汇 率波动的显著影响。自特朗普上任以来，其贸易战和关税政策一直是市场关注 的焦点，尽管阶段性地有所松动，但整体策略并未改变。市场目前对后续贸易 战持观望态度，同时也存在一定程度的忽视心理。 • 特朗普经济政策，包括贸易战和关税措施，导致美股波动和美国经济滞胀。 市场虽选择性忽视负面因素，但仍显衰退交易特征，特朗普 2.0 时期的政 策将持续影响市场。 • 美国经济结构性分化明显：花旗经济意外指数低于预期，十年期美债收益 率下降；但非农就业数据强劲，CPI 同比增速反弹，通胀粘性犹存。 • 预计 2025 年美国将延续去通胀趋势，核心服务通胀将下降，但原油价格和 特朗普关税可能带来扰动。劳动力市场松弛程度是影响消费支出的关键因 素。 • 判断经济衰退的重要指标是失业率，其滞后性使其在确定经济是否进入衰 退拐点时具有重要作用，失业率上升通常伴随外生冲击。 • 美国制造业 PMI ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲 明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 （ 於 中 華 人 民 共 和 國 註 冊 成 立 的 股 份 有 限 公 司 ） （股份代號：6806） 海外監管公告 本公告乃由申萬宏源集團股份有限公司（「本公司」）根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規 則第13.10B條作出。 茲載列本公司於深圳證券交易所網站發佈之《申萬宏源集團股份有限公司關於申萬宏源證券有 限公司為境外子公司發行債券提供擔保的進展公告》，僅供參閱。 承董事會命 申萬宏源集團股份有限公司 董事長 劉健 北京，2025年3月12日 於本公告日期，董事會成員包括執行董事劉健先生及黃昊先生；非執行董事朱志龍先生、張英女士、邵亞樓先生、 徐一心先生及嚴金國先生；獨立非執行董事楊小雯女士、武常岐先生、陳漢文先生及趙磊先生。 证券代码：000166 证券简称：申万宏源 公告编号：临 2025-11 申 万 宏 源 集 团 股 份 有 限 公 司 关于申万宏源证券有限公司为境外子公司发行债券 提供 ...

证券代码：000166 证券简称：申万宏源 公告编号：临 2025-11 申 万 宏 源 集 团 股 份 有 限 公 司 关于申万宏源证券有限公司为境外子公司发行债券 提供担保的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、担保情况概述 为满足业务发展需要，申万宏源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"）所属全资子公司申万宏源证券有限公司（以下简称"申万宏源 证券"），同意其境外全资子公司申万宏源（国际）集团有限公司（以 下简称"国际集团"）下设境外特殊目的机构（以下简称"SPV"） 作为发行主体，发行不超过 8 亿美元（或等值外币）的债券，债券期 限不超过 5 年（含 5 年），同意申万宏源证券为前述债券发行提供连 带责任保证担保，担保范围为债券本金、利息和担保协议下其他付款 义务，担保期间为发行人的偿付债券的义务的存续期间。（以上详见 公司于 2024 年 11 月 20 日在《中国证券报》《证券时报》《上海证 券报》及巨潮资讯网刊登的《关于申万宏源证券有限公司为境外子公 司发行债券提供担保的公告》） 2025 年 3 月 10 日，申万宏源 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese technology sector and its performance in the global market, particularly in relation to the impact of U.S. policies and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. [1][3][13] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Performance**: In 2025, U.S. dollar assets have underperformed, while Chinese tech stocks have led global gains, influenced by changes in U.S. policies and the AI technology cycle. [1][3] 2. **U.S. Economic Outlook**: The "Trump 2.0" policy may lead to downward revisions in U.S. economic growth expectations, with tariff risks potentially impacting market sentiment. [1][6] 3. **Technology Cycle Impact**: The technology cycle enhances labor productivity, benefiting tech growth stocks the most. The introduction of the Deep Sick policy has accelerated the Chinese tech industry cycle, contributing to the rise of Chinese tech stocks. [1][4][13] 4. **Valuation and Foreign Investment**: Despite recent gains, Chinese stock market valuations and foreign investment ratios remain low, with significant policy support signals. However, U.S.-China tariff threats could temporarily harm risk appetite. [1][14] 5. **Hong Kong Market Dynamics**: The Hong Kong stock market shows better liquidity and is undervalued before a potential rally, benefiting from a trend of capital flowing southward. The Hang Seng Tech Index represents leading Chinese tech firms and has significant upside potential. [1][17] Additional Important Insights 1. **Global Asset Allocation Logic**: The core logic for global asset allocation in 2025 revolves around the geopolitical changes brought by "Trump 2.0" and the development trends in the AI industry. [2] 2. **Government Policy Focus**: The primary goal of the government in 2025 is to boost consumption and investment, with a focus on domestic demand-driven industries and strategic emerging sectors like AI and low-altitude economy. [4][30] 3. **Future Asset Allocation Recommendations**: Investors are advised to monitor the U.S. dollar's performance, as it is a crucial anchor for asset pricing. The recent decline in the dollar index has led to underperformance of dollar assets compared to non-dollar assets. [5] 4. **Debt Market Outlook**: U.S. Treasury yields reflect recession expectations, with potential for further declines in the short term, although long-term trends may not be downward. [7][8] 5. **Investment Opportunities in AI**: The AI industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with significant investment opportunities in application sectors like humanoid robots and low-altitude related fields. [4][37] 6. **Chinese Stock Market Valuation**: Despite recent increases, the valuation of the Chinese stock market remains relatively low from a global perspective, indicating potential for upward adjustments as domestic economic conditions improve. [14][16] 7. **Sector-Specific Insights**: The healthcare sector is highlighted as being significantly undervalued, with potential for recovery as market conditions stabilize. [44][45] Conclusion The conference call emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments, particularly U.S. policies, and the ongoing evolution of the AI sector as critical factors influencing investment strategies in the Chinese market and beyond. The insights provided suggest a cautious yet optimistic outlook for specific sectors, particularly technology and healthcare, as they navigate the current economic landscape.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company/Industry Involved - The notes pertain to the bond market investment strategies in the context of low interest rates and high volatility, specifically from Shenwan Hongyuan's Spring Strategy Conference for the Capital Market in 2025. Core Points and Arguments - **Model Development and Performance**: The model utilizes six key indicators (manufacturing PMI, PMI factory prices, seasonal factors, and processed price indicators) to characterize economic and market features, achieving a predictive accuracy of over 70% since 2019, with a narrowing deviation of around 5 basis points [1][2][6] - **Methodology**: The model employs a median rather than an average to reduce the impact of extreme values, focusing on data from 2019 onwards due to significant changes in macroeconomic, financial regulatory, and monetary policy frameworks [1][8][9] - **Limitations**: The model struggles to predict sudden policy changes, such as interest rate cuts in July and growth stabilization signals in October 2024, indicating a need for improvements [1][11] - **Backtesting Results**: Various strategies were tested, showing that the basic rotation strategy improved annualized returns by 1.1%, while replacing the wealth index with a bidding index improved returns by 1.3%. The strategy involving leverage showed the highest Sharpe ratio, indicating significant contributions to capital gains [1][14][18] - **Monetary Policy Shift**: The current monetary policy has shifted from supply constraints to demand constraints, with the central bank using the seven-day reverse repo rate as a new policy rate to avoid liquidity traps [3][19][22] - **Collaboration of Fiscal and Monetary Policies**: The coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is emphasized as crucial for macroeconomic stability, with measures taken to support local governments and facilitate fiscal expansion [3][20][21] - **Investment Strategy Adjustments**: The model suggests adjusting bond portfolios based on interest rate predictions, with specific strategies for long and short bonds depending on anticipated rate movements [12][14] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Selection of Indicators**: The selection of indicators for the model was based on timeliness, quantity, and high recognition, ensuring that the chosen metrics effectively capture economic conditions [4] - **Transparency in Model Calculation**: The model's calculation process is designed to be transparent and understandable, using a simplified version of the classic KG0 algorithm to determine the similarity of current conditions to historical periods [5] - **Impact of External Factors**: The model's performance is influenced by broader market trends, with the overall positive market trend since 2019 contributing to higher predictive accuracy, although individual month-to-month performance can vary significantly [10][19] - **Taxation Differences**: There are notable differences between bank wealth management products and public fixed-income funds regarding taxation and operational models, which affect their pricing and market behavior [32][33] - **Seasonal Patterns in Wealth Management Products**: The scale of bank wealth management products exhibits seasonal patterns, with significant fluctuations at the end and beginning of quarters [35] - **Future Market Outlook**: The bond market is expected to face challenges due to potential supply shocks, but the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies may mitigate these risks [29][30] This summary encapsulates the key insights and findings from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the bond market as discussed by Shenwan Hongyuan.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call focuses on the **AI investment strategies** and **ETF market** in the context of the **capital market** as discussed by **Huatai Securities** during their **2025 Spring Strategy Meeting**. Core Points and Arguments - **AI Strategies in Investment**: AI strategies significantly enhance traditional multi-factor models by processing vast amounts of data and complex factors, particularly in volume and price data analysis, optimizing investment decisions [1][4][9]. - **Acceptance of AI in Asset Management**: The asset management industry is increasingly accepting AI strategies, particularly those based on statistical models, due to their strong performance. However, the ability of reasoning-based large language models to reach expert-level performance remains to be validated [1][13][14]. - **ETF Market Growth**: The ETF market has surpassed **3.8 trillion yuan**, with a focus on smart beta strategies to achieve stable returns through industry rotation and asset allocation models [1][22]. - **Investment Strategy Focus**: Huatai Securities emphasizes a robust return strategy, primarily focusing on bond investments, and utilizes global asset allocation models and qualitative analysis for market judgment [1][27]. - **Industry Rotation Strategy**: The industry rotation strategy combines macro, meso, and micro factors with AI identification and qualitative analysis, favoring technology, consumer, and pharmaceutical sectors while adjusting investment targets based on significant events like the Two Sessions [3][31]. - **AI's Role in Financial Engineering**: AI enhances traditional multi-factor frameworks by integrating diverse data types, leading to more precise and efficient data analysis, thus optimizing portfolio design and improving returns while reducing risks [7][18]. - **Performance of AI in Quantitative Investment**: AI strategies outperform traditional multi-factor methods by effectively aggregating information and conducting global analyses, leading to superior excess returns [9][12]. - **Future of Large Models in Finance**: Large models like DeepSeek and ChatGPT show potential in subjective analysis, suggesting a new paradigm of combining subjective and quantitative investment approaches, although their expert-level capabilities need further validation [11][15]. - **ETF Product Development**: Huatai Securities is committed to providing ETF products and solutions, focusing on smart beta strategies and offering professional services, including market reports and strategy analyses [1][23]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Historical Context of AI in Quantitative Investment**: The application of AI in quantitative investment began around 2003, evolving through various phases, with significant adoption starting in 2017, leading to substantial investment returns [2][13]. - **Impact of Two Sessions on Market**: The analysis of the Two Sessions' impact on the market involves reviewing historical key topics and market performance, indicating that different time periods around the event affect market dynamics [32]. - **Investment Heat and Valuation Levels**: The current investment heat in AI-related sectors is at historical highs, with significant trading activity and valuation levels, necessitating cautious investment strategies [62][64]. - **Differentiation of Index Products**: Index products vary significantly in valuation levels and stock resonance, suggesting that investors should choose based on their risk appetite and investment strategy [68][70]. - **Performance of Active Equity Fund Managers**: Different fund managers exhibit varying performance in the AI sector, categorized into stable allocation, focused sector, and flexible adjustment types, highlighting the importance of selecting managers based on their stability and risk-return profile [73][74]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the discussions surrounding AI investment strategies and the ETF market.

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful issuance of corporate bonds by Hubei Science and Technology Investment Group Co., Ltd., emphasizing the importance of supporting the real economy and promoting high-quality regional economic development through financial services [1]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - On March 6, 2025, Hubei Science and Technology Investment Group Co., Ltd. successfully issued corporate bonds (Phase 1) aimed at professional investors, with an issuance amount of 800 million yuan and an interest rate of 2.25% for a term of 3 years [1]. - The company holds an AAA credit rating, with its controlling shareholder being the Wuhan East Lake New Technology Development Zone Management Committee [1]. Group 2: Regional Economic Significance - Wuhan East Lake High-tech Zone, known as "China's Optics Valley," is a national-level high-tech zone and a key area for strategic emerging industries, housing over 70% of Hubei's strategic emerging industries [1]. - Hubei Science and Technology Investment Group is the largest state-owned platform in Optics Valley, responsible for infrastructure construction and industrial investment funds, making it a crucial entity for development and financing in the region [1]. Group 3: Future Commitment - The company will continue to adhere to its mission of serving the real economy, leveraging its comprehensive financial service advantages to support more entities in achieving high-quality financing and promoting high-quality regional economic development [1].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲 明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 （ 於 中 華 人 民 共 和 國 註 冊 成 立 的 股 份 有 限 公 司 ） （股份代號：6806） 海外監管公告 董事長 劉健 北京，2025年3月11日 於本公告日期，董事會成員包括執行董事劉健先生及黃昊先生；非執行董事朱志龍先生、張英女士、邵亞樓先生、 徐一心先生及嚴金國先生；獨立非執行董事楊小雯女士、武常岐先生、陳漢文先生及趙磊先生。 股票代码：000166 股票简称：申万宏源 公告编号：临 2025-10 债券代码：148638 债券简称：24 申宏 02 本公告乃由申萬宏源集團股份有限公司（「本公司」）根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規 則第13.10B條作出。 茲載列本公司於深圳證券交易所網站發佈之《申萬宏源集團股份有限公司2024年面向專業投資 者公開發行公司債券（第一期）（品種二）2025年付息公告》，僅供參閱。 承董事會命 申萬宏源集團股份有限公司 申万宏源集团股份有限公司 20 ...

本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 股票代码：000166 股票简称：申万宏源 公告编号：临 2025-10 债券代码：148638 债券简称：24 申宏 02 特别提示： 申万宏源集团股份有限公司 2024年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券 （第一期）（品种二）2025年付息公告 由申万宏源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）于 2024 年 3 月 13 日发行的申万宏源集团股份有限公司 2024 年面向专业投资 者公开发行公司债券（第一期）（品种二）（以下简称"本期债券"） 至 2025 年 3 月 13 日将期满 1 年。根据本期债券《募集说明书》和《上 市公告》有关条款的规定，在本期债券的计息期限内，每年付息一次， 为确保付息工作的顺利进行，现将有关事宜公告如下： 一、本期债券基本情况 1、债券名称：申万宏源集团股份有限公司 2024 年面向专业投 资者公开发行公司债券（第一期）（品种二）。 2、债券简称：24 申宏 02。 3、债券代码：148638。 4、债券期限：本期债券的期限为 5 年。 5、债券利率：本期债券的票面利率 2.71 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **automotive industry** and its related sectors, particularly focusing on **high-end manufacturing** and **robotics**. The insights also touch upon the **low-altitude economy** and **military technology**. Key Insights and Arguments Automotive Industry - The automotive sector has shown strong performance since the beginning of the year, with a significant increase in stock prices, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately **12.5 percentage points** as of March 6, 2025 [2][3]. - The penetration rate of **new energy vehicles (NEVs)** is expected to reach **60%-65%** by 2025, with favorable subsidy policies for models priced below **150,000 yuan** [1][6]. - Companies like **BYD**, **Xpeng**, and **Geely** are actively launching new technologies and smart models, with **Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD)** entering the Chinese market potentially reshaping competition [1][5][11]. - BYD's inventory clearance strategy has boosted sales, but there are concerns about sustaining order growth post-March. If orders reach **300,000-400,000 units** in May without discounts, it could signify a new phase of growth; otherwise, valuation risks may arise [1][10]. - The **robotics industry** is experiencing growth driven by the spillover of China's manufacturing capabilities, with companies embracing AI technologies to enhance competitiveness [1][14]. Investment Strategies - The investment strategy for the automotive sector emphasizes the resonance between **domestic demand** and **AI commercialization**, highlighting opportunities for valuation enhancement [2]. - Key companies to watch include **Xpeng**, **BYD**, **Xiaomi**, and **Geely**, with specific models like **Xpeng G6/G9** and BYD's new platform technology expected to redefine market segments [7][16]. - The **robotics industry** is entering a mass production phase, with major companies providing clear production guidance and significant policy support [3][37]. Low-Altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is gaining traction with supportive policies from various local governments, including the establishment of a **Low-Altitude Economy Development Office** to coordinate efforts across multiple sectors [20][22]. - Six pilot cities are authorized to manage airspace below **600 meters**, marking a significant breakthrough for the industry [23][24]. - The development of the low-altitude economy is expected to create substantial investment opportunities, particularly in drone operations and related infrastructure [60][61]. Robotics and Manufacturing - The robotics sector is projected to see significant advancements in 2025, with a focus on humanoid robots and their mass production [37][38]. - Investment strategies in the machinery sector will prioritize **high-end manufacturing**, including smart manufacturing equipment and advanced CNC machines [55][58]. - The rise of domestic robots, supported by companies like **Huawei** and **Xiaomi**, is expected to enhance market confidence and drive innovation [46]. Military Technology - The military sector is poised for growth driven by order elasticity and themes such as military AI and robotics, with significant opportunities in commercial space and low-altitude economy applications [73][80]. - The demand for military products is expected to increase due to heightened global tensions and military exercises, leading to a surge in procurement [76][79]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The **robotics industry** is characterized by a complex supply chain involving various components such as sensors, controllers, and actuators, which are critical for the development of intelligent machines [49][51][52]. - The **low-altitude economy** is not only about drone operations but also involves the integration of various technologies and infrastructure to support safe and efficient airspace management [29][30][31]. - The **commercial space sector** is rapidly evolving, with significant government support and technological advancements driving growth in satellite manufacturing and related services [62]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the automotive, robotics, low-altitude economy, and military technology sectors.