降本增效显著，采浆快速增长 ——派林生物 2024 年报&2025 年一季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到公司产能扩增带来的短期影响，我们下调盈利预期，预测公司 2025-2027 年 每股收益分别为 1.23、1.42、1.60 元（原预测值 2025-2026 年分别为 1.28/1.47 元），参考可比公司平均市盈率，我们给予公司 2025 年 23 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 28.29 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 行业估值水平波动的风险；采浆量不达预期风险；新品上市不达预期风险；行业政 策变动风险；商誉减值风险等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,329 | 2,655 | 3,217 | 3,637 | 4,043 | | 同比增长 (%) | -3.2% | 14.0% | 21.2% | 13.1% | 11.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 695 | 880 | 1,018 | 1 ...

证券研究报告 医药生物 | 生物制品 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 30 日 证券分析师 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 李强 SAC：S1350524040001 liqiang01@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | 04 | 月 | 29 | 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 22.04 | | | | 一 年 内 高 / 低 | 最 | 最 | | | | | | | 30.48/19.46 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 16,112.89 | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 15,933.44 | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | 731.07 | | | | 资产 ...

2025年一季度，曾被视为"黄金赛道"的血液制品行业遭遇集体寒流。天坛生物、博雅生物、派林生物、 上海莱士四大巨头净利润跌幅均超20%，与2024年报的亮眼表现形成强烈反差。在行业集中度持续提升 的背景下，这场突如其来的业绩"变脸秀"背后，暗藏着价格战、库存积压与技术替代的多重博弈。 在进口依赖与重组技术夹击下，国产化成为破局关键。对美加征关税或使进口白蛋白价格上涨 10%-15%，国产产品性价比优势凸显，人血白蛋白31%的市占率亟待提升至50%以上。头部企业加速技 术突围：天坛生物吨浆收入突破600万元，凝血因子国产化率剑指50%；上海莱士豪掷42亿收购南岳生 物，浆站总数将突破50家，行业CR5采浆量占比超80%。然而，重组技术的颠覆性威胁仍未解除。好消 息是，重组白蛋白临床适应症拓展与市场教育仍需5-8年，这为传统企业留下了宝贵的转型窗口期。 结语 血制品行业的"暴雷"并非偶然，而是赛道逻辑切换的阵痛。当价格战与库存压力倒逼企业转向效率竞 争，当国产替代遇上技术迭代，这场关乎千亿市场的生死竞速，考验的不仅是浆站数量，更是产品力、 成本控制与战略预判的终极较量。在血制品的下半场，唯有效率王者方能突围。 本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has experienced a short-term decline in performance due to temporary production stoppages, but it is expected to benefit from capacity expansion and sustained high growth in plasma collection [4][5] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.655 billion yuan, representing a 14% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 745 million yuan, which is a 21.76% increase [4] - The company’s plasma collection volume exceeded 1,400 tons in 2024, with an expected growth rate of over 15% [6] - The company has signed exclusive licensing and supply agreements to enhance its market presence both domestically and internationally [6] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 49.13%, with a net margin of 28.07%, indicating effective cost management and profitability [7] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.112 billion yuan, 3.702 billion yuan, and 4.214 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 894 million yuan, 1.095 billion yuan, and 1.231 billion yuan [8][11] - The expected growth rates for revenue from 2024 to 2027 are 14%, 17.24%, 18.93%, and 13.83% respectively [11] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 1.02 yuan in 2024 to 1.68 yuan in 2027 [11]

21世纪经济报道记者韩利明上海报道 几家欢喜几家愁？近期，多家血液制品企业披露2024年及2025年一季度业绩，呈现出明显的分化态势。 2024年，上海莱士（002252）、天坛生物（600161）、派林生物（000403）、卫光生物（002880）实现营收净利双增。此外，从营收来看，华兰生物 （002007）、博雅生物（300294）、博晖创新（300318）分别同比下滑18.02%、18.53%、34.58%；从归母净利润来看，华兰生物同比下滑26.57%，不过博 晖创新已成功扭亏为盈，实现归母净利润0.09亿元。 进入2025年一季度，多家血液制品企业出现业绩反转。营收上，天坛生物、华兰生物、博雅生物延续增长；但卫光生物、上海莱士、派林生物却分别出现 0.57%、2.45%、14%的下滑。利润层面，仅华兰生物实现19.62%的增长，上海莱士、天坛生物等五家企业净利润均有不同程度下跌。 其中，单季度创收10亿元以上的上海莱士和天坛生物，业绩规模处于第一梯队，但期内归母净利润降幅却分别高达25.2%、22.9%。天坛生物将归母净利润 下滑的原因归咎为"产品价格下降减少的利润大于销量增长增加的利润。" | | ...

Industry Outlook - The blood products industry in China is expected to maintain high growth due to factors such as improved consumption structure, enhanced plasma utilization, normalized exports, and increased government support [1] - The market capacity for blood products is projected to exceed 100 billion RMB in the future [2] Company Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.655 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and a net profit of 745 million RMB, up 21.76% [4] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 28.07%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.81 percentage points [5] Production and Capacity - The company’s plasma collection volume in 2024 exceeded 1,100 tons, with an expected increase to over 1,400 tons in 2025, representing a growth of over 20% [5][6] - Post-expansion, the annual production capacity is anticipated to exceed 3,000 tons [6][8] Growth Strategies - The company plans to increase the number of plasma collection stations through both organic growth and acquisitions [3] - Continuous R&D efforts will be made to enhance product variety and improve profit margins per ton of plasma [3] Market Position - The overall performance of the blood products industry is strong, with the company positioned favorably compared to peers [4] - The company has received over 10 county-level and 5 city-level approvals for new plasma stations, aiming for significant expansion in 2025 [7] Future Projections - The company aims to maintain double-digit profit growth in 2025 [6] - The fourth-generation intravenous immunoglobulin is expected to be approved in the first half of 2027 [8] Shareholder Engagement - The company has implemented a value management system and is actively pursuing share buyback plans, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 24.42 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 21.64 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.655 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.00%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 745 million CNY, up 21.76% year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 764 million CNY, a decline of 19.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 203 million CNY, down 29.14% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with the annual capacity of the Picefiko project increasing to 1,600 tons and the Guangdong Shuanglin project expected to reach 1,500 tons by mid-2025, ensuring long-term sustainable development [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit margin of 28.07%, an increase of 1.81 percentage points year-on-year, and a period expense ratio of 16.70%, a decrease of 4.26 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 375 million CNY, a decrease of 14.00% year-on-year, and a net profit of 89 million CNY, down 26.95% year-on-year [2]. Plasma Collection and Expansion - The company adopted a dual strategy of internal growth and external expansion in plasma collection, achieving over 1,400 tons of plasma collection in 2024, which supports product supply and rapid growth in annual operating performance [3]. - The company has completed the acceptance of new plasma stations and is expanding the number of plasma donors to increase collection rates [3]. Product Development - The company has over 10 products in advanced stages of research and development, with significant progress in clinical trials for several key products, enhancing market competitiveness [4]. - The comprehensive utilization rate of plasma is expected to continue increasing with the launch of new products [9]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 16.2%, 13.9%, and 12.2% for 2025 to 2027, respectively, with net profit growth of 19.8%, 16.5%, and 14.2% during the same period [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a steady growth in domestic albumin batch approvals, with a 12% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, while imported albumin saw a 9% decline [9][10] - The report suggests a long-term growth potential in the immunoglobulin market, with a 15% year-on-year increase in intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) approvals in Q1 2025 [18][24] - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Tian Tan Biological, Pai Lin Biological, Bo Ya Biological, Shanghai Lai Shi, and Hua Lan Biological [3] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Blood Product Batch Approvals in Q1 2025 - Domestic albumin approvals reached 418 batches, up 12% year-on-year, while imported albumin approvals totaled 778 batches, down 9% [9][10] - Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) approvals were 324 batches, up 15%, and intramuscular immunoglobulin (IMIG) approvals were 9 batches, up 13% [9] - For specific immunoglobulins, hepatitis B immunoglobulin approvals were 11 batches (up 83%), tetanus immunoglobulin 35 batches (up 13%), and rabies immunoglobulin 34 batches (up 42%) [9] 2. Albumin Analysis - The report notes a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.4% for albumin approvals from 2011 to 2024, with domestic albumin growing at 5.9% and imported at 16.7% [11] - In Q1 2025, the total albumin approvals were 1196 batches, reflecting a slight decline of 2.4% year-on-year [11] 3. Immunoglobulin Analysis - The report indicates a CAGR of 8.4% for IVIG approvals from 2011 to 2024, with Q1 2025 showing 324 batches approved [18] - The leading companies in the IVIG market accounted for approximately 61% of the market share in Q1 2025 [24] 4. Special Immunoglobulins - The report highlights significant growth in specific immunoglobulin approvals, particularly for hepatitis B and rabies, with notable increases in batch approvals [28][29] - The market for tetanus immunoglobulin is also growing, with a 13% increase in approvals [28] 5. Coagulation Factor Analysis - The report notes a CAGR of 13.6% for human coagulation factor VIII approvals from 2011 to 2024, with Q1 2025 approvals at 163 batches, up 12% [35] - Prothrombin complex concentrate (PCC) approvals increased by 26% year-on-year, totaling 82 batches in Q1 2025 [35] - The report identifies leading companies in the coagulation factor market, which hold significant market shares [43]

内容概要：人血清白蛋白（Human Serum Albumin，HSA）是血液或血浆中主要蛋白成分，由肝脏细胞 生产，占血浆总蛋白的 60%，对维持血浆渗透压、保持血管内外液体平衡具有重要的作用。近些年 来，我国65岁及以上人口和占比持续提升，全国老龄化进程不断加速，叠加国内经济不断发展、临床用 药日益普及，以及医生、患者对血液制品认识持续提升，使得我国在术后或免疫力低的情况下需要使用 血液制品的患者将越来越多，带来人血清白蛋白市场扩容。据统计，2024年我国人血清白蛋白治疗药物 市场规模已从2018年的189亿元增长至395亿元，根据市场预测，2030年有望达到5701亿元以上。 相关上市企业：天坛生物（600161）；上海莱士（002252）；华兰生物（002007）；派林生物 （000403）；卫光生物（002880）；博晖创新（300318）等 相关企业：华通福源生物技术（北京）股份有限公司；深圳普罗吉医药科技有限公司；武汉禾元生物科 技股份有限公司；河北华凯惠合生物医药有限公司；无锡和邦生物科技有限公司等 关键词：产业链；人血清白蛋白治疗药物市场规模；非药用人血清白蛋白市场规模；竞争格局；重点企 业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial report of Palin Biotech (000403) indicates a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, raising concerns about the company's financial health and operational efficiency [1]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was 375 million yuan, a decrease of 14.0% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 89.09 million yuan, down 26.95% from the previous year [1]. - The gross profit margin fell to 48.06%, a decline of 6.53% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit margin decreased to 23.74%, down 15.14% compared to the same period last year [1]. - Total expenses (selling, administrative, and financial) amounted to 67.59 million yuan, representing 18.04% of total revenue, an increase of 30.03% year-on-year [1]. Key Financial Ratios - Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) for the previous year was 8.42%, indicating average capital returns [3]. - The net profit margin for the previous year was 28.07%, suggesting high added value in products or services [3]. Shareholder Information - The company has raised a total of 5.241 billion yuan since its listing and has distributed 432 million yuan in dividends, resulting in a dividend-to-financing ratio of 0.08 [3]. - Analysts project that the company's performance for 2025 will reach 887 million yuan, with an average earnings per share of 1.21 yuan [3]. Fund Holdings - The largest fund holding Palin Biotech is the Huazhang Select Mixed Fund, which has reduced its holdings recently [4]. - Other funds, such as E Fund Balanced Growth and E Fund Kexiang Mixed, have maintained or increased their positions in the company [4].