Group 1 - Local stocks in Guangxi have surged, with a focus on ASEAN free trade direction leading the gains [1] - Notable stocks that hit the daily limit include Beibu Gulf Port (000582), Wuzhou Transportation (600368), Nanning Department Store (600712), Baiyang Co., Ltd. (002696), and Hualan Group (301027) [1] - Other stocks that quickly followed the upward trend include Tianye Co., Ltd., Yuegui Co., Ltd. (000833), Guangxi Broadcasting (600936), LiuGong (000528), and Guangxi Energy (600310) [1] Group 2 - Dark pool funds are currently flowing into these stocks, indicating increased investor interest [2]

Core Viewpoint - The excavator market is experiencing a recovery in domestic demand and steady growth in exports, with significant year-on-year increases in sales figures for 2025 [2][3][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, major excavator manufacturers sold a total of 61,372 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with domestic sales increasing by 38.3% to 36,562 units [2][3]. - The China Machinery Industry Association reported that the excavator market index (CMI) reached 128.56 in March, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.28% and a month-on-month increase of 20.51% [4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Demand - The increase in excavator sales is attributed to several factors, including the replacement of aging equipment, improved funding conditions, and sustained demand from rural areas and infrastructure projects [3][4]. - The real estate sector has shown signs of recovery, with a significant increase in transaction volumes in monitored cities, contributing to the demand for excavators [3]. Group 3: Export Trends - In the first quarter, excavator exports reached 24,810 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.49%, with March alone seeing exports of 10,073 units, up 2.87% [5][6]. - The export market remains diversified, with limited exposure to the U.S. market, where the impact of new tariffs is expected to be minimal for major companies [5][6]. Group 4: Tariff Impact and Company Responses - Major companies like XCMG and Zoomlion reported that their revenue from the U.S. market constitutes a very small percentage of total revenue, indicating that the impact of U.S. tariffs will be limited [5][6]. - Companies are proactively expanding their overseas presence and production capabilities to mitigate risks associated with tariffs, with strategic investments in regions like North America and emerging markets [7].

►业绩稳健增长，毛利率持续改善。 证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 业绩高增，看好国企改革及国际化拉动成长 [Table_Title2] 柳工(000528) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 000528 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 13.71/9.02 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 205.76 | | 最新收盘价： | 10.19 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 205.68 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,018.44 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司发布 2024 年年报。 公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年公司实现营收 300.6 亿元，同比增长 9.2%；实现归母净利润 13.3 亿元，同比增 长 52.9%。盈利能力端，公司 2024 年全年毛利率达 22.5%，较 2023 年同比提升 1.68pct；2024 年净利率为 4.6%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 300.63 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.24%, with a net profit of 13.27 billion yuan, up 52.92% year-on-year [6]. - The gross margin improved to 22.50%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin rose to 4.61%, up 1.19 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The company’s market share in the earthmoving machinery sector increased, with revenue from this segment reaching 179.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, accounting for 59.68% of total revenue [6]. - The company’s international sales growth outpaced the industry by 22.00%, with overseas revenue of 137.60 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.05%, representing 45.77% of total revenue [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 72.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.52% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.05%. However, net profit for the same quarter was only 0.06 billion yuan, down 84.55% year-on-year and 98.10% quarter-on-quarter [6]. - The company forecasts revenues of 34,312 million yuan, 39,777 million yuan, and 45,855 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]. Market Position - The company’s loader business maintains the top domestic market share, with significant growth in overseas emerging markets, particularly for the CLG8128H loader and electric loaders, which saw sales increases of approximately 230.00% and 194.00% respectively [6]. - The excavator business outperformed the industry by 27.00 percentage points in sales growth, with export sales exceeding the industry growth by 15.00 percentage points [6]. Strategic Development - The company is committed to high-quality international development strategies, leveraging a dual-engine model of customer and channel to enhance product offerings and comprehensive solutions [6]. - The company’s new business segments, particularly in mining machinery, saw revenue growth exceeding 60.00%, with market shares increasing by 1.00 percentage points domestically and 3.00 percentage points internationally [6].

[Table_StockNameRptType] 柳工（000528） 公司点评 盈利端高增，看好公司多元化与国际化发展 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-04-07 | | 570 收盘价（元） | 11.27 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 13.71/8.34 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2019.24 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 2018.45 | | 流通股比例（%） | 99.96 | | 总市值（亿元） | 227.57 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 227.48 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 柳 工 沪深300 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年年报 公司发布2024年年报，2024年全年实现营业收入300.63亿元，同比增长9.24%； 实现归母净利润 13.27 亿元，同比增长 52.92%；加权平均净资产收益率为 7.93%，较 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in semiconductor equipment due to tariff impacts [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the impact of tariffs on the machinery equipment sector, particularly the 34% tariff on U.S. imports, which raises the total export tariff to the U.S. for engineering machinery to 79%. However, the actual impact on major companies is limited due to their low exposure to the U.S. market [1][2]. - The report identifies potential growth in domestic demand and the electric vehicle transition as key factors for the forklift segment, while also noting the limited impact of tariffs on exports [3]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased domestic production due to tariffs, with a focus on both mature and advanced process equipment [4]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - The report highlights that major engineering machinery companies have minimal exposure to the U.S. market, with SANY Heavy Industry at approximately 3% and XCMG at about 1% [1][2]. - Companies with overseas factories, particularly in North America and Mexico, are better positioned to mitigate tariff risks [2]. - The report recommends companies like SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong for their strategic factory locations [2]. Forklifts - The report notes that domestic forklift manufacturers have limited exposure to the U.S. market, and the impact of tariffs is manageable due to pre-stocked inventory [3]. - It suggests that the domestic forklift market will see growth driven by the electric vehicle transition and government policies supporting domestic demand [3]. Semiconductor Equipment - The report indicates that the 34% tariff on U.S. imports will accelerate the domestic production of semiconductor equipment, particularly in mature processes where price sensitivity is higher [4]. - It recommends focusing on companies involved in both front-end and back-end semiconductor equipment, highlighting firms like North China Innovation and Zhongwei Company [4]. General Automation - The report suggests that the general automation sector will see limited impact from tariffs, with a focus on domestic demand for tools and automation products [5][8]. - It highlights the recovery in manufacturing and logistics sectors as potential growth drivers for the general automation market [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report provides a list of recommended companies across various segments, including semiconductor equipment, engineering machinery, and general automation, emphasizing their potential for growth in the current market environment [1][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in semiconductor equipment due to tariff impacts [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the impact of tariffs on the machinery equipment sector, particularly the 34% tariff on U.S. imports, which raises the total export tariff to the U.S. for engineering machinery to 79%. However, the actual impact on major companies is limited due to their low exposure to the U.S. market [1][2]. - The report identifies potential growth in domestic demand and the electric vehicle transition as key factors for the forklift segment, while also highlighting the importance of overseas factory layouts to mitigate tariff risks [3][4]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased domestic production due to tariffs, with a focus on both mature and advanced process equipment [4]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - The report notes that major engineering machinery companies have limited exposure to the U.S. market, with SANY Heavy Industry at approximately 3% and XCMG at about 1% [1][2]. - Companies with overseas factories, particularly in North America and Mexico, are better positioned to mitigate tariff risks [2]. - The report recommends companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong for their strategic factory locations [2]. Forklifts - The report indicates that domestic forklift exports to the U.S. will face a 79% tariff, but the impact is manageable due to low exposure and pre-stocked inventory [3]. - It highlights the potential for growth in the domestic market driven by policies supporting electric vehicle adoption and logistics industry upgrades [3]. Semiconductor Equipment - The report suggests that the 34% tariff on U.S. imports will accelerate the domestic production of semiconductor equipment, particularly in mature processes where price sensitivity is higher [4]. - It recommends focusing on companies involved in both front-end and back-end semiconductor equipment, such as North China Innovation and Zhongwei Company [4]. General Automation - The report suggests that the general automation sector will see limited impact from tariffs, with a focus on domestic demand for tools and automation products [5][8]. - It highlights the recovery in manufacturing and logistics sectors as potential growth drivers for the automation industry [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report provides a list of recommended companies across various segments, including semiconductor equipment, engineering machinery, and general automation, emphasizing their strategic positions to capitalize on current market conditions [1][16].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" based on strong performance and growth prospects [7][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 30.063 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.327 billion yuan, up 52.92% [4][5]. - The company’s international sales grew significantly, with overseas revenue accounting for over 45% of total revenue, reflecting a 20.05% year-on-year increase [5][6]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 22.50%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost management and pricing strategies [5][6]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 34.617 billion yuan, 39.484 billion yuan, and 44.401 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.15%, 14.06%, and 12.45% respectively [7][10]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.963 billion yuan, 2.511 billion yuan, and 3.048 billion yuan, with growth rates of 47.91%, 27.95%, and 21.37% respectively [7][10]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 11.93, 9.33, and 7.68, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to peers [7][10].

中邮证券有限责任公司陈基赟,刘卓近期对柳工（000528）进行研究并发布了研究报告《业绩快速增 长，"三全"战略布局持续优化》，给予柳工买入评级。 柳工 l事件描述 公司发布2024年年度报告，2024年实现营收300.63亿元，同增9.24%；实现归母净利润13.27亿元，同增 52.92%；实现扣非归母净利润11.38亿元，同增100.10%。 2024年公司海外销量增速跑赢行业水平22pct，海外收入同增20.05%，其中新兴市场收入同比增长超过 30%，非洲、南亚、中东等区域保持强劲增长势头，区域结构得到持续优化。战略新兴业务方面，公司矿 山机械全年销售收入同比增长超60%，利润同比大幅增长；高空机械实现逆周期增长，聚焦突破海外重点 市场，实现出口增长超过150%；农业机械350马力混动无级变速拖拉机顺利完成各项整机试验与参数验 证，并在国内、海外国外多地多工况测试获得重要进展；智拓科技业务基本形成以工业机器人集成为主， 工装、环保除尘、维修维保及服务为辅的新格局，外部市场新增订单占比突破20%。 l盈利预测与估值 公司土石方机械占比较高有利于内销率先企稳复苏，并且海外市场增速持续跑赢同行，我们预计公 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Add" [1] Core Viewpoints - The direct export cost of engineering machinery to the US has significantly increased due to tariffs, reaching 79% (25% + 20% + 34%), but the overall risk is manageable as the exposure to the US market is low for major manufacturers [1] - Key recommendations focus on companies with North American factories and those with facilities in Mexico (which has tariff exemptions) or Brazil and Turkey (which can bear a 10% tariff) [2] - Companies like SANY Heavy Industry and Hengli Hydraulic have established production capabilities in North America, which can help mitigate tariff risks [2] - The report suggests that the overall risk is controllable despite the tariff impacts, and recommends companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and Hengli Hydraulic for investment [5] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The engineering machinery sector faces a 79% tariff on exports to the US, but major companies have limited exposure, with SANY at approximately 3% and Hengli at about 5% [1] - If retaliatory measures are taken by sanctioned countries, it could benefit Chinese engineering machinery brands, especially in emerging markets [1] Overseas Factory Layout - Companies with North American factories include SANY and Hengli, with SANY's future production capacity expected to exceed 2,000 units, corresponding to about 1 billion yuan [2] - Hengli's North American factory has an annual output value of 300-400 million yuan for hydraulic components, with plans to produce planetary screws if tariffs persist [2] - In Mexico, Hengli and Zoomlion have factories, with Hengli's projected annual output value increasing from 2 billion to 3-4 billion yuan [2] - Zoomlion's factory in Mexico has achieved over 1 billion yuan in actual sales since full production began in Q3 2024 [2] - In Brazil and Turkey, Zoomlion and LiuGong have factories with a combined capacity exceeding 3 billion yuan [2]