皖能电力 20250226 摘要 • 皖能电力池州二期百万千瓦机组首次并网成功，预计下月中下旬投产，将 增强发电竞争力。但受春节、暖冬及高温影响，安徽 1 月全社会用电量同 比下降 6.3%，发电量总体下降。 • 2025 年安徽省内中长期电价同比下降约 2.3 分/千瓦时，但皖能电力通过 现货市场合理布置，1 月份现货综合收益高于中长期合同价格，实现超额 收益，预计 2 月收益减少。 • 安徽省内月度交易价格略降，现货市场波动大，但通过合同布置，皖能电 力结算电价仍高于中长期合同价。新疆江布电厂外送华东电量占比高，新 英业达电厂结算电价更高。 • 市场煤价下跌，皖能电力考虑调整长协煤基准价并引入市场联动机制，同 时增加市场协议煤，进行差异化管理和价格重谈，统筹长协煤与现货市场 应对变化。 • 新能源入市后纳入全省统一偏差考核，考核资金进入统一大盘子，通过现 货市场或辅助服务市场重新分配，类似于现货未运行时补偿火电腾出发电 空间。 Q&A 请简要介绍一下皖能电力近期的运营情况。 目前皖能电力的总装机容量为 1,736 万千瓦，其中在建项目为 1,366 万千瓦， 核准项目为 160 万千瓦。值得更新的数据是安 ...

Group 1: Power Generation and Pricing - The company's controlled power generation for 2024 is projected to be 60.15 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year increase of over 17% [1] - The increase in power generation is primarily attributed to new projects, including gas power generation in Hefei and coal power generation in Xinjiang, which are expected to contribute significantly to the overall output [1] - The annual trading electricity price in Anhui Province is expected to decrease slightly by over 0.02 CNY/kWh in 2025 [1] Group 2: Coal Supply and Taxation - The expected structure of coal supply is anticipated to remain stable, with long-term contracts and market structure maintaining their respective proportions year-on-year [2] - New power plants in Xinjiang benefit from three tax exemption policies, with the income tax rate expected to be 15% after the exemptions end [2] Group 3: Ongoing Projects and Market Operations - The company has three major projects under construction: Qianyingzi Coal Power Phase II (1,000 MW) expected to be operational this year, a large-scale photovoltaic project in Xinjiang aiming for full capacity connection by Q3, and a wind power project in Suzhou expected to achieve full capacity by the end of the year [2] - The trial operation of continuous spot market settlement began this month, with the proportion of spot electricity expected to be significant [2] - The auxiliary service revenue for 2024 is projected to be slightly over 1.2 billion CNY, primarily from peak-shaving auxiliary services [2]

Summary of the Conference Call for WanNeng Electric Power Company Overview - WanNeng Electric Power has a total installed capacity of 17.36 million kilowatts, with 13.66 million kilowatts in operation and 2.1 million kilowatts under construction [2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 2024 Performance Expectations - The company expects a strong performance in 2024, with projected earnings between 2 billion to 2.2 billion yuan. The total power generation is anticipated to exceed 60 billion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year growth of over 17% [3][8]. Renewable Energy Projects - The 800,000-kilowatt solar project in Xinjiang is expected to be connected to the grid by the end of June 2025, with full capacity expected by the third quarter. Additionally, a 300,000-kilowatt wind power project is projected to achieve full capacity by the end of 2025 [3][6]. - The company is also advancing 1.4 million kilowatts of pumped storage and 200,000 kilowatts of wind power projects that are currently in the approval process [3][6]. Clean Coal Power Initiatives - WanNeng is actively promoting the clean transformation of coal power, with a 300,000-kilowatt unit undergoing wide-load adjustment experiments, which have received national patents. The company plans to extend this technology to larger capacity units [3][7]. Market Dynamics and Pricing - The average benchmark electricity price for offshore wind power has dropped below 900 yuan per kilowatt-hour, while the price for units in Anhui has fallen below 1,000 yuan per kilowatt-hour [3]. - The current electricity market in Anhui has led to lower prices, with January 2025 spot prices dropping below long-term prices, indicating a slight increase in overall revenue compared to long-term prices, although excess returns have narrowed compared to 2024 [12]. Operational Challenges - Approximately 50% of the units were offline or operating at reduced capacity during the Spring Festival. The company anticipates a balanced maintenance schedule for the year, with major repairs planned for both the first and second halves of 2025 [13][14]. Future Development Plans - The company is focusing on technological innovation, including research in controllable nuclear fusion and hydrogen production from green electricity in Xinjiang, aiming for breakthroughs during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [7][8]. Additional Important Information - The company has made significant progress in its heating business, with heating volume and prices continuing to rise, surpassing the profitability of electricity on a per-unit basis [4]. - The pricing mechanism for the Xinjiang solar project is set at 0.262 yuan per kilowatt-hour, which is considered favorable and does not participate in market bidding [17]. - The average settlement price for concentrated solar projects in Xinjiang participating in the market is approximately 0.14 to 0.15 yuan per kilowatt-hour [18]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance expectations, renewable energy initiatives, market dynamics, and future development strategies.

Core Viewpoint - The company expects its power generation capacity to continue growing by 2025, driven by new production capacity coming online [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company's coal-fired power units have achieved full profitability [1] - The total capacity of the company's coal-fired power units is 13.17 million kilowatts, including units under construction [1] Group 2: Future Projects - A major coal-fired power unit at the Yanjinzi Phase II is expected to be operational in the first half of this year [1] - Three coal-fired power projects, namely Guoan Phase II, Anqing Phase III, and Zhongmei Liu'an, are expected to be completed by 2026 [1] - The Chizhou Phase II project is anticipated to be operational by mid-2025 [1]

投资者关系活动 类别 特定对象调研 分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 新闻发布会 □路演活动 现场参观 其他 线上会议 参与单位名称及 人员姓名 1.鹏华基金 王禹萱； 2.华源证券 邓思平； 3.兴业证券 蔡屹；兴业证券 蔡屹；国盛证券 高紫明；国泰君安 孙 辉贤；海通证券 吴杰、闫石；西南电力 巢语欢；华源证券 邓思平； 中金 刘佳妮、刘砺寒；光大证券 宋黎超； 银河证券 陶贻功、梁 悠南；中信资管 袁智志；保银基金 余泽；光大保德信 岳子曈； 4.民生证券 黎静； 5.华福电力 闫燕燕； 6.国泰君安 孙辉贤。 地点 公司 上市公司接待人 员姓名 李天圣、张增智、董佳文 投资者关系活动 主要内容介绍 一、电价&电量 Q：安徽省电价情况？ A：电量电价较为平稳。 Q：安徽省供电的情况如何？ A：安徽省全社会装机容量达到 1.2 亿千瓦时，其中火电占比约 为 50%。 | Q：容量电价目前回收比例是 30%吗？会逐年提高吗？ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | A：安徽省 2025 年的比例约为 30%，即 100 元/千瓦，2026 | 年 | | | 50%左右，逐步到 100% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 2 billion to 2.25 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40% to 57% [7] - The increase in profit is primarily driven by a rise in electricity generation, a decrease in coal prices, and improved profitability of controlled power generation enterprises [7] - The company has accelerated the commissioning of high-quality thermal power units in Anhui and is strategically positioned in the "Xinjiang Electricity into Anhui" initiative [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to be around 28.32 billion RMB, with a slight year-on-year growth of 1.62% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is forecasted at 2.08 billion RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 45.66% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated to be 0.92 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.72 based on the latest diluted EPS [1][8] Operational Highlights - As of December 31, 2023, the company had a total installed capacity of 11.38 million kilowatts, which is expected to increase to 12.28 million kilowatts by June 30, 2024, following the commissioning of new gas peak-shaving projects [7] - The electricity demand in Anhui province has shown robust growth, with a cumulative electricity consumption of 327.85 billion kilowatt-hours in the first eleven months of 2024, up 12.8% year-on-year [7] - The company is leveraging its strategic advantages in Xinjiang, with ongoing projects expected to contribute significantly to future earnings [7]

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 2,135/2,304/2,431 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 49%/8%/6% respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 7/7/6 times for 2024-2026 [5] - The stock price has corrected by approximately 18% since December 18, 2024, due to lower-than-expected long-term contract electricity prices in Anhui Province [5] - Despite short-term impacts on asset returns, the company is expected to achieve growth in performance through volume compensation in the medium term [5] - The current valuation is at a historically low level, supporting the "Buy" rating [5] Financial Performance - The company's 2024 annual performance forecast predicts a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2,000-2,250 million, a year-on-year increase of 39.91%-57.40% [7] - The non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 1,977-2,227 million, a year-on-year increase of 54.09%-73.57% [7] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 417-667 million, significantly higher than the RMB 125 million in the same period of 2023 [7] - The fourth quarter's performance exceeded market expectations, partly due to a low base in 2023 and reduced pressure from asset impairment provisions [7] Operational Highlights - Anhui Province's electricity supply-demand situation remains tight, with a projected power shortage exceeding 20,000 MW in 2025 [7] - The launch of the electricity spot market in Anhui Province may provide excess returns, potentially becoming a catalyst for the company's performance and stock price in 2025 [7] - The company's new power plants, such as the Xinjiang Yingema Power Plant (2*660 MW), are expected to contribute to future growth [7] - Additional power plants, including Banji Phase II and others, are scheduled to be operational between 2025 and 2027, further boosting installed capacity [7] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 28,368/29,436/30,513 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.80%/3.77%/3.66% [6] - EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be RMB 0.94/1.02/1.07 per share [6] - ROE for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 14.01%/13.77%/13.27% [6] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated at 7.27/6.74/6.39 times [6] Market Performance - The closing price on January 22, 2025, was RMB 6.85 [3] - The total market capitalization is RMB 15,528.01 million, with a circulating market capitalization of RMB 15,528.01 million [3] - The company's asset-liability ratio is 65.71%, and the net asset value per share is RMB 6.80 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2 billion to 2.25 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.91% to 57.4% [1] - The increase in profit is primarily driven by higher electricity generation, lower coal prices, and improved profitability of controlled power generation enterprises [1] - The electricity demand in Anhui province is projected to grow by 12% in 2024, with total electricity consumption reaching 359.8 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - The company is set to benefit from new power generation units coming online, contributing to an increase in installed capacity [2] - The expected weighted average price for electricity transactions in Anhui for 2025 is estimated to decrease by 5.3% [3] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company forecasts revenue of 29.957 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.5% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.034 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 42.3% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be approximately 0.90 yuan in 2024 [4] Installed Capacity and New Projects - As of June 2024, the company's total equity installed capacity is expected to exceed 19 million kilowatts, with 14.95 million kilowatts in operation or under construction [2] - New projects include the commissioning of two 660,000-kilowatt units in Xinjiang and a 1 million-kilowatt project in Qianyingzi expected to be operational by March 2025 [2] Cost and Profitability - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to remain stable, providing flexibility for the company's coal-fired power profitability [3] - The company's profitability is anticipated to remain strong due to the gradual commissioning of new units and low coal prices [3]

Financial Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately CNY 200 million to CNY 225 million for the fiscal year 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.91% to 57.40%[5] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is estimated to be between CNY 197.72 million and CNY 222.72 million, reflecting a growth of 54.09% to 73.57% compared to the previous year[3] - The basic earnings per share are projected to be approximately CNY 0.9926 to CNY 0.8823, up from CNY 0.6306 in the previous year[3] Factors Influencing Profitability - The increase in profit is primarily attributed to a rise in electricity generation and a decrease in coal prices, enhancing the profitability of the company's controlled power generation enterprises[5] Audit and Reporting - The performance forecast has not been audited by an accounting firm, and the company has communicated with its auditors regarding significant matters related to the forecast[4] - Detailed financial data for the fiscal year 2024 will be disclosed in the annual report, and investors are advised to make cautious decisions[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Waneng Power (000543) with a 6-month target price of 10.30 CNY, compared to the current price of 7.09 CNY [1] Core Views - Waneng Power is a leading thermal power company in Anhui province, with significant capacity expansion expected [1] - The company benefits from tight power supply-demand dynamics in Anhui, supporting electricity prices [7] - Coal price declines are improving thermal power costs, with Qinhuangdao thermal coal prices expected to remain around 760 CNY/ton [7] - The company is expanding its installed capacity, with 2.32 GW of new capacity expected to be operational by end-2024 [7] - Power sector reforms are enhancing the profitability stability of thermal power, with ancillary services contributing to diversified income [7] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 27.87 billion CNY in 2023 to 33.06 billion CNY in 2025, with a CAGR of 10.85% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 1.43 billion CNY in 2023 to 2.33 billion CNY in 2025, with a CAGR of 18.48% [2] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.63 CNY in 2023 to 1.03 CNY in 2025 [2] - ROE is expected to improve from 8.58% in 2023 to 12.39% in 2025 [2] Industry and Market Dynamics - Anhui's power demand is growing rapidly, with a CAGR of 8.7% from 2020-2023, driven by economic growth and industrial development [7] - Thermal power remains the dominant power source in Anhui, accounting for 90.4% of total power generation in H1 2024 [43] - The company's thermal power utilization hours are expected to remain high, at 5,000 hours in 2024, gradually declining to 4,800 hours by 2026 [8] - Coal prices are expected to remain low, with the company's comprehensive coal cost projected at 980 CNY/ton in 2024, declining to 860 CNY/ton by 2026 [8] Capacity Expansion and New Projects - The company is expanding its thermal power capacity, with 1.175 GW of operational capacity and 1.32 GW under construction as of H1 2024 [23] - New projects include the Xinjiang Yingema Power Plant (1.32 GW) and Qianyingzi Power Plant Phase II (1 GW), both expected to be operational by end-2024 [7] - The company is also investing in renewable energy, with plans to add 4 GW of new energy capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [95] Valuation and Target Price - The report values Waneng Power at 10x 2025 PE, implying a target price of 10.30 CNY [11] - The company's 2025 PE of 6.9x is below the industry average of 9.4x, indicating potential undervaluation [116] - The target price is based on the company's capacity expansion, low coal prices, and thermal power premium [11]