富国中证农业主题ETF（159825）基金经理为张圣贤。 截至发稿，张圣贤累计任职时间10年225天，现任基金资产总规模247.06亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 122.6%， 任职期间最差基金回报-89.6%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 1月12日，亚钾国际跌2.42%，截至发稿，报49.67元/股，成交7.20亿元，换手率1.79%，总市值458.98亿 元。亚钾国际股价已经连续3天下跌，区间累计跌幅6.6%。 资料显示，亚钾国际投资(广州)股份有限公司位于广东省广州市南沙区庆慧中路1号,创智三街1号A3栋 50103,广州市天河区珠江东路6号广州周大福金融中心51楼，成立日期1998年10月27日，上市日期1998 年12月24日，公司主营业务涉及谷物贸易、国际船务及物流、钾盐的开采、生产及销售等。主营业务收 入构成为：氯化钾97.54%，卤水1.24%，其他1.22%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，富国基金旗下1只基金重仓亚钾国际。富国中证 ...

Group 1: Potash Market Insights - The potash supply and demand are in a tight balance, with international potash prices on the rise. China is the largest potash consumer globally, with an import dependency exceeding 60%. In 2024, China's potassium chloride production is expected to be 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while imports are projected to reach 12.633 million tons, an increase of 9.1%, marking a historical high [1] - As of December 2025, domestic potassium chloride port inventory is 2.4294 million tons, a decrease of 61.53 thousand tons compared to the same period in 2024, with a decline rate of 0.21%. The domestic potassium chloride market price averaged 3,282 yuan/ton in December, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.83% and a year-on-year increase of 30.45% [1] - Internationally, the prices of potassium chloride in Vancouver, Northwest Europe, and Jordan have risen to 317, 347, and 357 USD/ton respectively by the end of December, compared to the end of November [1] Group 2: Phosphate Rock Market Dynamics - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs. The domestic supply-demand situation is tight, with the market price for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining in the high price range of 900 yuan/ton for over three years [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the tax-inclusive price for 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei is 1,040 yuan/ton, while in Yunnan, it is 970 yuan/ton, both remaining stable compared to the previous month [2] Group 3: Lithium Iron Phosphate Demand - The production capacity of lithium iron phosphate in China has reached 5.945 million tons per year, with a projected output of 3.82 million tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.59%. The market price for lithium iron phosphate is approximately 50,300 yuan/ton as of January 7, 2026, up 57.19% from the lowest price of 32,000 yuan/ton in June 2025 [3] - The demand for lithium iron phosphate and other phosphorus-containing new energy materials is significantly increasing due to the growth in downstream energy storage and power battery sectors, leading to continuous price increases [3] Group 4: Future Phosphate Resource Demand - With the global energy storage industry expanding, the demand for lithium iron phosphate is expected to rise, with projected global energy storage battery shipments increasing to 600, 800, and 983 GWh from 2025 to 2027. This corresponds to phosphate rock demand of 600, 800, and 983 million tons, accounting for 4.7%, 5.9%, and 7.0% of China's forecasted phosphate rock production [4] - The high purity requirements for lithium iron phosphate mean that the actual available high-grade phosphate resources are scarcer than the total amount, giving companies with quality mineral sources and integrated mining capabilities a strategic advantage in the new energy materials competition [4]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a decline on January 8, with the Chemical ETF (516020) showing a low-level fluctuation, reaching a maximum intraday drop of 1.86% and closing down 0.98% [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including Hongda Co., Yaqi International, and Cangge Mining, saw significant declines, with Hongda Co. dropping 4.01% and others falling over 3% [1][2] - Despite the recent downturn, the Chemical ETF (516020) has seen substantial capital inflows, with a net inflow of 319 million yuan over the last five trading days and over 568 million yuan in the last ten days [1][3] Group 2 - According to Guotou Securities, the chemical industry is at the bottom of a four-year down cycle, with indicators suggesting it has nearly bottomed out, and 2026 is expected to be a turning point for the cycle [3] - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) was reported at 3930 points on December 31, 2025, a 39% decrease from the peak in 2021, indicating the industry is in a historical low range [3] - The basic chemical sector achieved a net profit of 112.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, suggesting initial stabilization of the sector [3] Group 3 - Future outlook indicates that the chemical industry will be influenced by tariff policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices, with recommendations to focus on undervalued leading companies and sectors benefiting from strong downstream demand [3] - Huazhong Securities suggests that the industry may continue to experience a trend of divergence, recommending attention to sectors such as synthetic biology, pesticides, and vitamin production [3] - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, providing an efficient way to invest in the chemical sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices rising. China, being the largest consumer, has a high import dependency exceeding 60%. The domestic production of potassium chloride is expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high of 12.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1][24]. - The long-term price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, coupled with growing demand from new applications like lithium iron phosphate [2][50]. - The price of glyphosate has shown volatility, with a significant increase during the South American planting season, followed by a decline due to high North American inventories [4][49]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to recover due to resource scarcity and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains [1][44]. - Domestic potassium chloride prices have shown an upward trend, with the average price at 3,282 RMB/ton by the end of December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.45% [1][40]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining high at around 1,040 RMB/ton in Hubei and 970 RMB/ton in Yunnan [2][50]. - The production capacity of lithium iron phosphate is projected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 48.59% expected in 2025 [2][51]. Pesticides - The glyphosate market is expected to see price improvements in 2026, following a period of price fluctuations influenced by seasonal demand and inventory levels [4][49]. - The report highlights several key companies in the pesticide sector, including Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical, which are positioned to benefit from rising prices and demand [8][49]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on companies with strong potassium and phosphate resources, such as Yara International and Yun Tianhua, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand and supply dynamics in the agricultural chemical sector [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices rising. China, being the largest consumer, has a high import dependency exceeding 60%. The domestic production of potassium chloride is expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high of 12.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1][24]. - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, alongside growing demand from new applications like lithium iron phosphate. The domestic supply-demand situation for phosphate rock is tightening, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining elevated [2][50]. - The price of glyphosate has shown volatility, with a peak during the South American planting season and a subsequent decline due to high North American inventories. The report anticipates a recovery in glyphosate prices in 2026 [4][49]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to recover due to resource scarcity and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains [1][44]. - Domestic potassium chloride prices are projected to stabilize around 3,100-3,200 CNY/ton, with expectations of maintaining high inventory levels for food security [24][40]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining above 900 CNY/ton for over three years. The report highlights the increasing demand from lithium battery applications [2][50]. - Phosphate chemical prices have shown upward trends for products like lithium iron phosphate, while glyphosate prices have decreased significantly [49][51]. Pesticides - The report suggests a potential recovery in the pesticide sector, particularly for glyphosate and its derivatives, as the industry undergoes restructuring to improve profitability [4][8]. - Companies such as Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical are highlighted as key players in the pesticide market, with recommendations for investment [7][8].

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a pullback, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a decline of 0.88% as of the latest report [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including Wanhua Chemical, Luxi Chemical, and Cangge Mining, have seen significant declines, with Wanhua Chemical dropping over 3% [1][2] - The chemical ETF has attracted substantial capital inflows, with a net subscription of 319 million yuan over the last five trading days and over 568 million yuan in the last ten days [2][3] Group 2 - The construction of projects in the basic chemical industry has decreased by 10% year-on-year, indicating a nearing end to capital expenditures, while domestic demand and export resilience are improving the supply-demand balance [3] - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition, leading to potential improvements in performance and valuation [3] - The current state of the chemical industry is at a cyclical bottom, with expectations for enhanced profitability and valuation for leading companies as competition dynamics improve [3] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry index, covering various segments and focusing on large-cap leading stocks [4] - Nearly 50% of the ETF's holdings are concentrated in major companies like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co., allowing investors to capitalize on strong market leaders [4] - Investors can also access the chemical sector through linked funds of the chemical ETF [4]

证券之星消息，截至2026年1月7日收盘，亚钾国际(000893)报收于53.18元，上涨2.17%，换手率 1.54%，成交量12.54万手，成交额6.65亿元。 1月7日的资金流向数据方面，主力资金净流出5927.24万元，占总成交额8.91%，游资资金净流入 1367.13万元，占总成交额2.05%，散户资金净流入4560.12万元，占总成交额6.85%。 近5日资金流向一览见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 亚钾国际2025年三季报显示，前三季度公司主营收入38.67亿元，同比上升55.76%；归母净利润13.63亿 元，同比上升163.01%；扣非净利润13.62亿元，同比上升164.56%；其中2025年第三季度，公司单季度 主营收入13.45亿元，同比上升71.37%；单季度归母净利润5.08亿元，同比上升104.69%；单季度扣非净 利润5.06亿元，同比上升105.0%；负债率32.61%，投资收益4480.25万元，财务费用6529.58万元，毛利 率58.91%。亚钾国际（000893）主 ...

国信证券近日发布2026年石化化工行业1月投资策略：石化化工是周期性行业，现阶段石化化工行业"内 卷式"竞争问题突出，低质量、同质化的无序竞争导致企业普遍面临增产不增利困境，全行业营业收入 利润率从2021年的8.03%持续降至2024年的4.85%，2025年以来部分子行业率先复苏，前三季度行业归 母净利润同比增长10.56%，行业盈利逐渐企稳复苏。 以下为研究报告摘要： 核心观点 展望2026年1月，考虑到原油价格维持中等水平，且波动区间收窄，炼油炼化等重要化工行业成本将有 所减弱，整体利润将有所恢复，同时我们看好储能需求增长有望拉动磷矿石价值重估，钾盐资源的长期 稀缺性及可持续行业燃料(SAF)的长期巨大增长空间，我们重点推荐炼油炼化、钾肥、磷化工及SAF等 领域投资方向。 炼油炼化板块，考虑到2026年国际原油价格维持中等水平，且波动区间收窄，炼油炼化等重要化工行业 成本将有所减弱，整体利润将有所恢复。同时我国炼油产能整体过剩严重，近年小规模炼厂退出且国内 炼油行业持续"减油增化"，叠加"反内卷"政策信号明确有力的推动，我们预计包含芳烃产业链的炼油炼 化行业供需关系将持续优化，重点推荐【中国石油（60 ...

核心观点 石化化工行业2026年1月投资观点： 石化化工是周期性行业，现阶段石化化工行业"内卷式"竞争问题突出，低质量、同质化的无序竞争导致 企业普遍面临增产不增利困境，全行业营业收入利润率从2021年的8.03%持续降至2024年的4.85%， 2025年以来部分子行业率先复苏，前三季度行业归母净利润同比增长10.56%，行业盈利逐渐企稳复 苏。 供给端：化学原料及化学制品制造业投资固定资产累计投资额于2025年6月开始转负，SW基础化工行业 及多个细分子行业的资本开支连续多个季度转负，此轮行业扩产周期接近尾声；9月"石化化工行业稳增 长"政策正式出台，旨在治理企业低价无序竞争、推动落后产能有序退出，有机硅、己内酰胺、PTA聚 酯等子行业相继响应"反内卷"出台或正在制定行业指导文件。我们认为，后续将会看到更多化工产品新 产能审批趋严、落后产能（如规模小、能耗高、污染大）将加速出清，石化化工行业供给过剩问题将得 到有效缓解。 需求端：传统需求方面，伴随着全球央行进入降息周期及暂停缩表，在货币政策及财政政策刺激下我们 看好石化化工传统需求有望实现温和复苏；新兴需求方面，从新能源、SAF到AI，关键化学品材料始终 ...

Group 1: Metal Sector - Yun Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ) is projected to achieve a net profit of CNY 44.12 billion in 2024, increasing to CNY 75.75 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 25.82 to 15.04[9] - The company has a comprehensive production capacity of 305,000 tons of green aluminum and 140,000 tons of alumina, positioning it as a leader in the green aluminum sector[18] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease to 23% by 2024, maintaining a strong ROE of 15.6%[24] Group 2: Construction Materials - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) is forecasted to have a net profit of CNY 24.16 billion in 2024, growing to CNY 36.58 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio dropping from 18.60 to 12.29[9] - China National Materials (002080.SZ) is expected to see its net profit rise from CNY 8.92 billion in 2024 to CNY 25.87 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 68.38 to 23.57[9] Group 3: Transportation Sector - SF Holding (002352.SZ) is projected to achieve a net profit of CNY 101.70 billion in 2024, increasing to CNY 124.78 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio declining from 18.82 to 15.34[9] - The Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (601816.SH) is expected to see a slight increase in profit, with a PE ratio of 1973.38 in 2024, dropping to 1758.94 by 2026[9] Group 4: Chemical Sector - Senqcia (002984.SZ) is forecasted to have a net profit of CNY 21.86 billion in 2024, with a PE ratio of 10.03, expected to rise to CNY 21.26 billion by 2026[9] - Yara International (000893.SZ) is projected to achieve a net profit of CNY 9.50 billion in 2024, increasing to CNY 39.34 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 46.64 to 11.27[9]