Market Overview - The market is expected to experience style differentiation as it approaches the Spring Festival, maintaining a structural trend under narrow fluctuations[4] - Key focus areas include the release of December and annual economic data in late January and a concentrated period of earnings forecasts[4] Investment Strategy - The strategy emphasizes three main lines: 1. High-growth and high-elasticity sectors, including AI hardware (e.g., optical modules), energy storage, lithium batteries, and non-ferrous metals[4] 2. Market hot tracks such as commercial aerospace, robotics, and cultural tourism[4] 3. Low-position large financial sectors, focusing on high-certainty performance in brokerage, insurance, and banks with dividend expectations[4] Recommended Stocks - **Metals**: Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. (000807.SZ) with a projected EPS of 1.87 in 2025 and a PE of 17.6[28] - **Chemicals**: Yara International (000893.SZ) with a projected EPS of 2.06 in 2025 and a PE of 23.3[28] - **New Energy**: Slin Smart Drive (301550.SZ) with a projected EPS of 1.32 in 2025 and a PE of 105.0[28] - **Machinery**: Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) with a projected EPS of 2.19 in 2025 and a PE of 50.2[28] - **Aerospace**: AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group (000768.SZ) with a projected EPS of 0.42 in 2025 and a PE of 60.3[28] - **Banking**: Jiangsu Bank (600919.SH) with a projected EPS of 1.76 in 2025 and a PE of 5.9[28] - **Non-Banking**: New China Life Insurance (601336.SH) with a projected EPS of 11.82 in 2025 and a PE of 5.9[28] - **Social Services**: Jin Jiang International (600754.SH) with a projected EPS of 0.89 in 2025 and a PE of 28.3[28] - **Electronics**: Dongshan Precision (002384.SZ) with a projected EPS of 0.77 in 2025 and a PE of 109.8[28] - **Telecommunications**: Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) with a projected EPS of 9.47 in 2025 and a PE of 64.4[28] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations, leading to slow growth or stagnation[34] - Significant changes in individual stock fundamentals could adversely affect performance[34]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 2026 年石化化工行业 1 月投资策略 优于大市 推荐炼油炼化、钾肥、磷化工、SAF 投资方向 石化化工行业 2026 年 1 月投资观点： 石化化工是周期性行业，现阶段石化化工行业"内卷式"竞争问题突出， 低质量、同质化的无序竞争导致企业普遍面临增产不增利困境，全行业 营业收入利润率从 2021 年的 8.03%持续降至 2024 年的 4.85%，2025 年 以来部分子行业率先复苏，前三季度行业归母净利润同比增长 10.56%， 行业盈利逐渐企稳复苏。 供给端：化学原料及化学制品制造业投资固定资产累计投资额于 2025 年 6 月开始转负，SW 基础化工行业及多个细分子行业的资本开支连续多 个季度转负，此轮行业扩产周期接近尾声；9 月"石化化工行业稳增长" 政策正式出台，旨在治理企业低价无序竞争、推动落后产能有序退出， 有机硅、己内酰胺、PTA 聚酯等子行业相继响应"反内卷"出台或正在 制定行业指导文件。我们认为，后续将会看到更多化工产品新产能审批 趋严、落后产能（如规模小、能耗高、污染大）将加速出清，石化化工 行业供给过剩问题将得到有效缓解。 需求端：传统需 ...

Group 1 - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets showed a growth style leading the rally in December, with the ChiNext and North Star 50 indices rising over 5% [1] - The core drivers for the cyclical sector include economic recovery expectations and the revaluation of strategic resources, particularly benefiting from global manufacturing recovery and resource security themes [1][2] - The growth style focuses on technological self-reliance and new productivity, with capital concentrating on sectors like defense, communication, and AI-related high-end manufacturing [1][2] Group 2 - In January, the A-share market will enter a critical data verification period, influenced by policy effects, macro data, corporate performance, and liquidity changes, leading to potential increased volatility [2] - Key sectors such as defense, 6G, and satellite internet will require performance or order validation to digest previous gains, while commercial aerospace and AI computing sectors may still present active opportunities [2] - Strategic resource segments, especially rare metals like antimony, tungsten, and rare earths, are being revalued by the market due to their essential role in advanced technology breakthroughs [2] Group 3 - The company has excellent asset allocation in mineral resources, with a projected CAGR of 24% for copper production and 12% for gold production from 2020 to 2024, leading in growth among major copper/gold mining companies [6] - The company has successfully completed several significant acquisitions, contributing to production and profit, with ongoing projects expected to support sustainable growth in copper and gold businesses [6][8] - The company has effectively controlled costs, with production costs for copper and gold remaining competitive, positioning it within the top 20% globally [7] Group 4 - The company is benefiting from a stable coal production capacity of 48 million tons/year and has seen an increase in profitability due to low extraction costs and high long-term contracts [18] - The company is expanding its electrolytic aluminum capacity, with a projected increase to 121,000 tons/year by the end of 2025, supported by cost advantages from proximity to coal sources [19] - The company is actively promoting clean energy transition, with significant growth in renewable energy installations, aiming for 700,000 kW by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [19] Group 5 - The company is a leading supplier of air conditioning refrigeration valves, with rapid growth in automotive and humanoid robot businesses, actively developing new growth curves [47] - The company achieved a revenue of 240.29 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 16.86%, and a net profit of 32.42 billion yuan, up 40.85% [47] - The company is focusing on the development of robotic components, with plans for overseas mass production to strengthen its position in the global supply chain [49]

转自：智通财经 消息介绍，郭柏春涉嫌严重职务犯罪。2024年1月，宁夏回族自治区监委对其立案调查。办案机关积极 开展国际执法合作，最终将其缉拿归案。 红星新闻披露，被遣返回国后，2024年9月24日，郭柏春被解除了留置措施。2024年10月15日，亚钾国 际在其第八届董事会第十五次会议决议公告中透露，郭柏春可以正常履职，会议由郭柏春召集并主持。 此后3个月，郭柏春主持了亚钾国际多项会议。据证券时报消息，2025年1月16日，老挝有关人士到亚钾 国际老挝钾肥生产基地视察指导工作，郭柏春以董事长的身份与对方现场视频连线。第二天，郭柏春再 次被留置。 8月19日，最高人民检察院发布消息称，宁夏回族自治区银川市政府原党组成员、副市长郭柏春（副厅 级）涉嫌挪用公款、滥用职权一案，由宁夏回族自治区监察委员会调查终结，移送检察机关审查起诉。 经宁夏回族自治区人民检察院交办，由银川市人民检察院审查起诉。日前，银川市人民检察院依法以涉 嫌挪用公款罪、滥用职权罪对郭柏春作出逮捕决定。亚钾国际也发布公告证实郭柏春被逮捕的信息，并 强调相关事项系其个人行为，与公司无关联，公司生产经营正常，控制权未发生变化。 2025年12月29日， ...

Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 7th this week (2025/12/22-2025/12/26) with a fluctuation of 4.23%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.35 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 0.34 percentage points [1] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with a focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [1] Synthetic Biology - The arrival of a pivotal moment in synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by the adjustment of energy structures, which may disrupt fossil-based materials and favor low-energy products [1] - Traditional chemical companies are expected to compete based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs, with successful firms leveraging green energy alternatives and integrated advantages to reduce costs [1] - The demand for bio-based materials is projected to surge, leading to potential profitability and valuation increases for leading companies in the synthetic biology sector, such as Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [1] Refrigerants - The implementation of quota policies is expected to usher in a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants, with supply entering a "quota + continuous reduction" phase starting in 2024 [2] - The demand for refrigerants is anticipated to grow steadily due to the development of heat pumps, cold chain markets, and the expansion of the air conditioning market in Southeast Asia [2] - Companies with a high quota share, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co., are expected to benefit significantly from this trend [2] Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical to the electronics industry and represent a core component of domestic industrial chain localization [2] - The domestic market faces a contradiction between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity, presenting significant domestic substitution opportunities [2] - Key players like Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand driven by integrated circuits, panels, and photovoltaics [2] Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry is becoming increasingly significant, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter low-carbon alkanes like ethane and propane [3] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are characterized by low carbon emissions, low energy consumption, and low water usage, aligning with global carbon neutrality goals [3] - Companies in the light hydrocarbon sector, such as Satellite Chemical, are expected to see a revaluation of their value as this trend continues [3] COC Polymers - The industrialization process of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs and the shift of downstream industries to domestic sources [4] - COC/COP materials are increasingly used in various applications, including mobile camera lenses and medical packaging, with a focus on high-end applications [4] - Companies like Acolyte are recommended for their potential in the COC polymer production segment [4] Potash Fertilizers - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as the industry enters a destocking cycle, with supply constraints due to Canpotex withdrawing new quotes and Nutrien announcing production cuts [5] - The demand for potash fertilizers is likely to increase as farmers respond to rising grain prices, leading to a potential reversal in potash prices [5] - Leading companies in the potash sector, such as Yara International, Salt Lake Potash, and Zangge Mining, are recommended for investment [5] MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with demand steadily improving due to the expansion of polyurethane applications [6] - The global MDI production capacity is concentrated among five major chemical giants, which control approximately 90.85% of the market [6] - Companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to benefit from the favorable supply dynamics and demand recovery in the MDI sector [6] Chemical Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included NYMEX natural gas (9.59%), PTA (8.95%), and butadiene (6.83%) [6] - The top five price decreases included pure MDI (-4.23%) and acrylic fiber (-3.45%) [6] - A total of 170 chemical companies reported production capacity impacts this week, with 6 new repairs and 10 restarts [6]

《关于公司董事、高级管理人员股份减持完成公告》 截至2025年12月29日收盘，亚钾国际（000893）报收于46.6元，较前一交易日上涨0.11%，最新总市值 为430.61亿元。该股当日开盘46.54元，最高47.0元，最低45.3元，成交额达3.78亿元，换手率为1.01%。 近日，亚钾国际投资（广州）股份有限公司发布公告称，公司董事、高级管理人员郭柏春、刘冰燕、郑 友业、苏学军、刘永刚通过集中竞价交易方式完成股份减持。减持期间为2025年12月9日至12月24日， 合计减持545,000股，占公司当前总股本的0.0597%。减持股份来源于2022年股权激励计划获授的限制性 股票。本次减持后，上述人员合计持有公司股份1,620,000股，占总股本的0.1773%。郭柏春家属在操作 中误买入并卖出公司股份5,000股。本次减持未导致公司控制权变更。 最新公告列表 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 ...

2019年1月，濒死的上市公司* ST东凌（现亚钾国际）项目找到了郭柏春，因其拥有救活多个上市公司 的成功经验，被业内誉为"重组专家"，市场寄希望于郭柏春能再次盘活这个项目。 郭柏春发现，钾盐矿具有稀缺性和相对垄断性，对粮食安全保障起着至关重要的作用，这个公司拥有的 老挝钾盐矿又处于市场需求中心，与我国相邻，对我国这样一个缺钾大国意义重大。 经过充分论证调研，郭柏春拍板选择拯救亚钾国际。这一重要的决定，让曾处在退市边缘的亚钾国际在 短短5年时间内获得了重生。2019年公司股价还是4元/股，2025年股价最高已达到了48.99元/股。亚钾国 际钾肥产能的持续增长，也让老挝钾肥现已成为我国钾肥保供的中坚力量，筑牢了国家粮食安全根基。 就在2025年12月初，亚钾国际第三个百万吨项目刚刚实现联动投料试车，公司的产能再次跃进。亚钾国 际获得的成功结果绝非偶然，是郭柏春带领团队制定精准战略决策及坚定推进战略执行的必然。 另一方面，钾肥项目开发过程的技术挑战性。中国海外找钾之路始于上世纪八十年代，近40年我国30多 个出海找钾项目中，只有包括亚钾国际在内的2家中资民企获得了成功，由于我国钾盐资源主要为湖钾 资源，与海外钾 ...

近日，公司收到董事、高级管理人员出具的《关于股份减持计划实施完成的 告知函》，获悉本次股份减持计划均已实施完成，现将有关情况公告如下： 一、股东减持情况 证券代码：000893 证券简称：亚钾国际 公告编号：2025-047 亚钾国际投资（广州）股份有限公司 关于公司董事、高级管理人员股份减持完成公告 本公司董事长郭柏春先生，董事、总经理、董事会秘书刘冰燕女士，董事、 副总经理郑友业先生，副总经理、财务总监苏学军先生，副总经理刘永刚先生保 证向本公司提供的信息内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重 大遗漏。 亚钾国际投资（广州）股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年9月17 日在巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）披露了《关于公司董事、高级管理人员 减持公司股份的预披露公告》（公告编号：2025-042）。 | 序号 | 股东名称 | 减持方式 | 减持期间 | 减持均价 （元/股） | 减持股 数 | 减持股份数量占公司 当前总股本的比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | （股） | | | 1 ...

证券之星消息，截至2025年12月23日收盘，亚钾国际(000893)报收于47.29元，上涨0.68%，换手率 0.91%，成交量7.38万手，成交额3.47亿元。 12月23日的资金流向数据方面，主力资金净流出4435.61万元，占总成交额12.77%，游资资金净流出 846.63万元，占总成交额2.44%，散户资金净流入5282.24万元，占总成交额15.21%。 近5日资金流向一览见下表： | | | | | 日期 收盘价 涨跌幅 主力净流入 主力净占比 游资净点比 游资净占比 散户净占比 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-12-23 | 47.29 0.68% | | -4435.61万 | -12.77% | -846.63万 | -2.44% | 5282.24万 | - 15.21% | | 2025-12-22 | 46.97 0.11% | | -3643.85万 | -10.12% | -2325.56万 | -6.46% | 5969.41万 | 16.58% | | 202 ...

□12月18日，氯化钾国内市场均价3274元/吨，较年初上涨30%，同比增长29% □2024年我国钾肥进口量1263万吨，同比增加9.07%，进口依存度超60% □盐湖股份控股股东中国盐湖集团共有530万吨/年钾肥产能，其中包括盐湖股份的500万吨、五矿盐湖的 30万吨 ◎记者 李少鹏 刘立 在全球粮食安全战略地位持续提升的背景下，钾肥作为农业生产的关键要素，其市场供需格局持续偏 紧，今年以来价格中枢稳步上移。 2026年行业景气度有望持续高企 记者注意到，近期，国际钾肥市场"大事"不断。据媒体报道，占全球贸易量约20%的白俄罗斯钾肥被允 许恢复对欧洲等市场的正常出口。业内人士认为，白俄罗斯钾肥企业可能重新分配出口流向，减少对中 国的低价供应量。 12月16日，北美化肥巨头Mosaic旗下某钾盐矿发生事故。有券商分析师预计，若产能停产，全球供需或 将趋紧，利好钾肥价格上涨。 近期，上海证券报记者在采访中了解到，目前钾肥市场现货紧张，价格整体呈走高趋势。"目前钾肥生 产销售情况还是比较好的，钾肥的售价在3000元/吨左右浮动，公司也几乎没有库存。"青海某钾肥生产 企业负责人告诉上海证券报记者，整体来看今年以来 ...