单位：万元 证券代码：000893 证券简称：亚钾国际 公告编号：2026-008 亚钾国际投资（广州）股份有限公司 2025 年度业绩预告 本公司及董事会全体成员（除董事长郭柏春先生，被采取强制措施）保证信息披露的 内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 1、业绩预告期间：2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 12 月 31 日。 2、业绩预告情况：预计净利润为正值且属于同向上升 50%以上情形 | 项 目 | | 本报告期 | | | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 | | 166,000 | ～ | 197,000 | 95,046.59 | | | 比上年同期增长 | 75.00% | ～ | 107.00% | | | 扣除非经常性损益后的净利润 | | 166,000 | ～ | 197,000 | 89,181.04 | | | 比上年同期增长 | 86.00% | ～ | 121.00% | | | 基本每股收益（元/股） | | 1.82 | ～ | 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月23日 钾肥行业点评 全球氯化钾供需紧张，2026 年需求、价格有望超预期 |  行业研究·行业快评 | | |  石油石化 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 薛聪 | 010-88005107 | xuecong@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120001 | 事项： 近期，国内钾肥价格较年初已经上涨 50-100 元/吨，目前国产 60%白钾 3300 元/吨，边贸 62%白钾 3400 元 /吨，港口 62%白钾 3500 元/吨。 1）国内钾肥库存低位，看好春耕钾肥价格上行。根据百川盈孚数据，2025 国内氯化钾合计产量 582 万吨， 同比-38 万吨（yoy-6%）；截至 1 月 15 日，国内氯化钾港口库存 251 万吨，环比+3 万吨，同比-45 万吨， 且国储仍需 150 万吨补库需 ...

Market Overview - US stock market continues to rise, with Dow Jones up 0.63%, Nasdaq up 0.91%, and S&P 500 up 0.55% [1] - Meta shares increased by 5.66%, marking the largest single-day gain since July 31 [1] - Tesla shares rose by 4.15%, while Microsoft and Amazon saw increases of at least 1.31% [1] Company Developments - Intel's Q1 guidance is disappointing, leading to a post-market drop of over 10% [2] - Nvidia completed a $5 billion investment in Intel in Q4 [2] - Tesla plans to sell humanoid robots to the public by the end of this year or next year [3] - OpenAI is quietly developing humanoid robots with a team of 100 in San Francisco [4] - Meta's Threads platform has surpassed 400 million monthly active users and is launching ads globally [5] Commodity Insights - Goldman Sachs raised its gold price target to $5,400, indicating that wealthy individuals are competing with central banks for limited physical reserves [6] - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.97%, while silver futures increased by 4.05%, both reaching historical highs [7] - US natural gas futures prices surged by 81% within three days, reaching the highest level since December 2022 [7] Regulatory and Policy Updates - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng stated there is still room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year [8] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments encourage horizontal mergers and acquisitions in the pharmaceutical retail sector [12] - The State Council's Food Safety Office is drafting national standards for prepared dishes and will seek public opinions soon [12] Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is seeing significant developments, with Alibaba's T-HEAD planning for an independent IPO [10] - The prepared food sector is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on quality and safety in the supply chain [11] - The retail pharmacy industry is expected to accelerate consolidation, with a projected decrease in the number of pharmacies by nearly 20,000 since Q4 2024 [13] Financial Projections - Zhaoyi Innovation expects a net profit of approximately 1.61 billion yuan for 2025, a 46% increase year-on-year [17] - Shengmei Shanghai anticipates revenues between 6.68 billion and 6.88 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 18.91% to 22.47% [18] - Runtu Co. forecasts a net profit of 600 million to 700 million yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 181.05% to 227.89% [18]

Group 1 - The agricultural chemical sector increased by 1.52% on January 21, with Bai'ao Chemical leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4116.94, up 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14255.12, up 0.7% [1] - Bai'ao Chemical's stock price rose by 10.01% to 38.13, with a trading volume of 384,600 shares and a transaction value of 1.424 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net inflow of 1.297 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 989 million yuan [2][3] - Salt Lake Co. had a main fund net inflow of 435 million yuan, but retail investors had a net outflow of 382 million yuan [3] - Bai'ao Chemical experienced a main fund net inflow of 230 million yuan, with retail investors seeing a net outflow of 119 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a 1.15% increase, indicating a potential for a three-day winning streak [1] - Key stocks in the sector include Zhejiang Longsheng, which surged over 9%, and Sankeshu, which rose over 6%, among others [1] - The basic chemical sector has seen significant inflows, with over 11.3 billion yuan in net inflows on a single day, ranking fourth among 30 major sectors [1][2] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities expresses optimism about the chemical industry, highlighting a collective shift in corporate strategies that may lead to improved market conditions [3] - The report identifies five key areas for investment: MDI, petrochemicals, phosphate chemicals, PVC, and polyester bottle flakes [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) is recommended for investors looking to capitalize on the sector's rebound, as it tracks a specialized index covering major themes in the chemical industry [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a price increase of 1.15%, aiming for a third consecutive daily gain [1][8] - Key stocks in the sector include Zhejiang Longsheng, which surged over 9%, and Sankeshu, which rose over 6%, along with other companies like Yaqi International and Hebang Bio, which increased by over 4% [1][8] - The basic chemical sector has seen significant inflows, with over 11.3 billion CNY in net inflows on a single day, ranking fourth among 30 sectors, and a total of 31.3 billion CNY over the past five days, ranking second [9][10] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities expresses optimism about the chemical industry, highlighting a collective shift in corporate strategies that could lead to improved market conditions [10] - The report identifies two key dimensions for investment opportunities: leading companies with significant market share and those with competitive advantages that can enhance profitability [10] - The report specifically favors five areas: MDI, petrochemicals, phosphate chemicals, PVC, and polyester bottle flakes [10] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Shares, while the other half focuses on various sub-sectors [11] - Investors can also access the chemical ETF through linked funds (Class A 012537/Class C 012538) for more efficient exposure to the sector [11]

Group 1 - The agricultural chemical sector increased by 3.25% on January 19, with Lier Chemical leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the agricultural chemical sector showed significant price increases, with Lier Chemical rising by 10.01% to a closing price of 16.38 [1] Group 2 - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net inflow of 639 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 370 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Baiao Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng attracted substantial institutional investment, with net inflows of 160 million yuan and 154 million yuan, respectively [3] - Lier Chemical had a notable institutional net inflow of 117 million yuan, despite a significant outflow from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Yara International (000893) has seen a stock price increase of 6.16%, closing at 55.3 yuan, with analysts projecting steady profit growth and new capacity investments expected in the coming years [1] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Yara International reported a main revenue of 3.867 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.76% - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.363 billion yuan, up 163.01% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.362 billion yuan, reflecting a 164.56% increase - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a single-quarter main revenue of 1.345 billion yuan, a 71.37% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 508 million yuan, up 104.69% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 58.91% [1][1][1] Analyst Ratings - Over the past 90 days, 12 institutions have rated the stock, with 10 giving a "buy" rating and 2 an "accumulate" rating - Analysts from China Galaxy, Guojin Securities, and Kaiyuan Securities have all issued "buy" ratings for Yara International [1][1][1] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for Yara International from 2025 to 2027 predicts net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.910 billion, 2.709 billion, and 3.449 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 101.00%, 41.80%, and 27.31% respectively - The diluted EPS for the same period is expected to be 2.07, 2.93, and 3.73 yuan per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 21.36, 15.06, and 11.83 times [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index turning negative, while the chemical sector showed strong performance, with Haohua Technology rising over 7%, Hengli Petrochemical and Luxi Chemical up over 6%, and several other companies increasing by more than 5% [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133), which tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index, opened low but surged by 2.8% by midday, reaching a nearly three-year high [1] - Analysts indicate that capital expenditure in the chemical industry is expected to decline in 2024, and with the "anti-involution" trend and accelerated elimination of outdated overseas capacity, supply is likely to contract [1] Group 2 - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) closely tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index, which has a core advantage of comprehensive coverage and balanced structure [2] - The index selects large-scale, liquid companies from sub-industries such as chemical products, including both traditional leading enterprises and representatives from high-growth areas like new energy materials and fine chemicals [2]

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strength, with the Chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a price increase of 2.73% as of the latest update [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector include Haohua Technology, which reached the daily limit, and Junzheng Group, which surged over 9%, along with other notable gains from companies like Luxi Chemical and Huafeng Chemical [1][2] - Since 2025, the Chemical ETF has shown a cumulative increase of 47.53%, significantly outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (22.38%) and the CSI 300 Index (20.25%) [1][3] Group 2 - The chemical industry has seen negative growth in capital expenditure since 2024, but the "anti-involution" trend and the clearing of outdated overseas capacities are expected to lead to a contraction in supply [4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, which is anticipated to drive growth in chemical product demand, especially with the onset of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle [4] - A potential turning point for the chemical industry is expected in 2026, with a shift from valuation recovery to earnings growth, referred to as the "Davis Double Play" [4] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks, including Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co., allowing investors to capitalize on strong investment opportunities [5] - The ETF also includes exposure to various sub-sectors such as phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, fluorochemicals, and others, providing a comprehensive investment approach within the chemical sector [5] - The fund does not charge a sales service fee, with specific subscription and redemption fee structures outlined for investors [5][6]