Group 1 - The precious metals sector increased by 4.18% on January 19, with Sichuan Gold leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the precious metals sector showed significant price increases, with Sichuan Gold and Zhaojin Gold both rising by 9.99% [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the precious metals sector was 1.549 billion yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.489 billion yuan [1] - Major stocks like Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold saw net inflows of 342 million yuan and 301 million yuan respectively, indicating strong institutional interest [2] - Retail investors showed negative sentiment towards several stocks, with significant outflows from Sichuan Gold and other companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities highlights that Shanjin International (000975) has strong cost control in gold production, but a decline in output is impacting profits. The stock is rated as "Buy" with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 36.62 billion, 44.52 billion, and 58.52 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 17, 14, and 11 based on the closing price on October 23 [1][1][1] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Shanjin International reported a main revenue of 14.996 billion yuan, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.46 billion yuan, up 42.39% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.446 billion yuan, an increase of 36.96% year-on-year [1][1][1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a single-quarter main revenue of 5.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. The single-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders was 864 million yuan, up 32.43% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 847 million yuan, an increase of 28.56% year-on-year. The debt ratio stood at 19.16%, with investment income of 10.58 million yuan and financial expenses of 30.25 million yuan, while the gross profit margin was 28.39% [1][1][1] Institutional Ratings - In the last 90 days, 9 institutions have rated the stock, with 7 giving a "Buy" rating and 2 giving an "Increase" rating. The average target price from institutions over the past 90 days is 2.675 billion yuan [1][1][1] Financing and Securities - In the past three months, the net inflow of financing was 24.0495 million yuan, with an increase in financing balance. The net inflow of securities lending was 2.1969 million yuan, with an increase in securities lending balance [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong performance in gold stocks, driven by rising gold and silver prices due to geopolitical tensions and tariff threats from Trump, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Sichuan Gold and Zhaojin Gold both hit the daily limit, while Shanjin International rose over 6%, and both Zhongjin Gold and Western Gold increased by over 4% [1] - The total market capitalization of Sichuan Gold is 15.8 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 35.14% [2] - Zhaojin Gold has a total market capitalization of 14.8 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 21.75% [2] - Shanjin International has a total market capitalization of 82.6 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 22.32% [2] - Zhongjin Gold has a total market capitalization of 130.3 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 15.07% [2] - Western Gold has a total market capitalization of 28 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 15.25% [2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Prices - Spot gold reached a new historical high of 4,690 USD per ounce during trading [1] - Spot silver also hit a historical high of 94.15 USD per ounce [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Analysts indicate that geopolitical issues, particularly the situation in Iran, are causing short-term uncertainty among global investors, which is likely to sustain the current interest in gold [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in the number of enterprises in the non-ferrous metal mining and selection industry in China, with a total of 1,390 enterprises reported for the period from January to November 2025, marking an increase of 38 enterprises or a year-on-year growth of 2.81% [1] - The proportion of non-ferrous metal mining enterprises in the total industrial enterprises stands at 0.26% [1] - The report referenced is the "2026-2032 China Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Market Development Status and Competitive Landscape Forecast Report" published by Zhiyan Consulting [1] Group 2 - The data source for the statistics on the number of non-ferrous metal mining enterprises is the National Bureau of Statistics, organized by Zhiyan Consulting [2] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in deep industry research and providing comprehensive industry solutions to empower investment decisions [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that negative feedback is intensifying, leading to potential price fluctuations. As industrial product prices rise, domestic downstream negative feedback is increasing, resulting in accelerated inventory accumulation. Recent margin increases by CME and SHFE for certain products may lead to significant short-term price volatility in industrial metals. However, the overall bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the expectation of supportive policies [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Liquidity expectations are reverting, which does not hinder the long-term bullish logic. Recent statements from Trump favoring Hassett for the National Economic Council position have increased market expectations for the new Fed chair. The probability of a Fed rate cut in April has dropped to 30%. This has led to potential price fluctuations in precious metals due to a weakened narrative around short-term rate cuts [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.03% in the week ending January 16, ranking third among all industries [18] 3. Precious Metals - Short-term narratives around rate cuts are faltering, leading to potential price volatility in precious metals. As of January 16, SHFE gold rose by 2.57% to 1,032.32 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 2.62% to 4,590.00 USD per ounce. The report notes that the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves to 7,415 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for 14 months [14][29] 4. Copper - The report highlights that negative feedback is intensifying, leading to increased price volatility for copper. As of January 16, SHFE copper fell by 0.63% to 100,770 CNY per ton, while LME copper decreased by 1.50% to 12,803 USD per ton. The report also notes a significant increase in global visible copper inventory [17][28] 5. Aluminum - The aluminum processing sector shows resilience, with profitability per ton of aluminum expected to remain high. As of January 16, SHFE aluminum fell by 1.66% to 23,925 CNY per ton. The report indicates that the average profit for the aluminum industry is around 7,868 CNY per ton [16][89]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that negative feedback is intensifying, leading to potential price fluctuations. As industrial product prices rise, domestic downstream negative feedback is increasing, resulting in accelerated inventory accumulation. Recent margin increases by CME and SHFE for certain products may lead to significant short-term price volatility in industrial metals. However, the overall bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Liquidity expectations are rebounding, which does not hinder the long-term bullish logic. Recent statements from Trump favoring Hassett for the National Economic Council chair have increased market expectations for the next Federal Reserve chair. The probability of a rate cut in April has dropped to 30%. This may lead to price fluctuations in precious metals due to the weakened short-term rate cut narrative. In the industrial sector, as prices rise, negative feedback from domestic downstream is intensifying, and inventory is accumulating rapidly [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.03% in the week ending January 16, ranking third among all industries [18] 3. Precious Metals - Short-term rate cut narratives are challenged, leading to potential price fluctuations in precious metals. For the week ending January 16, SHFE gold rose by 2.57% to 1,032.32 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 2.62% to 4,590.00 USD per ounce. SHFE silver surged by 20.03% to 22,483.00 CNY per kilogram, and COMEX silver rose by 12.30% to 89.19 USD per ounce [14][15][29] 4. Copper - Negative feedback is intensifying, leading to increased price volatility for copper. For the week ending January 16, SHFE copper fell by 0.63% to 100,770 CNY per ton, while LME copper decreased by 1.50% to 12,803 USD per ton. The supply side remains tight, and the transmission to the smelting end is approaching [17][28] 5. Aluminum - The processing operation remains resilient, and the profit per ton of aluminum is expected to stay high. For the week ending January 16, SHFE aluminum fell by 1.66% to 23,925 CNY per ton, while LME aluminum decreased by 0.06% to 3,134 USD per ton. The processing operation rate slightly increased to 60.2%, with overall inventory accumulating [16][89]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [10]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a general upward trend, with significant price increases across various metals, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply chain dynamics [11][19]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade policies on the supply and demand dynamics of key metals, particularly copper and aluminum [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production capacities, as these factors are critical in determining future price movements [26][35]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Concerns over tariffs have led to a temporary pullback in silver prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive [1]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as 兴业银锡 and 盛达资源 for potential investment opportunities [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories are rising, particularly in the U.S., raising concerns about supply tightness in non-U.S. regions [2]. - The report notes that while high copper prices are suppressing end-user demand, the long-term consumption outlook remains strong due to infrastructure investments [2]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies [3]. - The report indicates that production cuts in aluminum processing are occurring, particularly in regions like Guizhou and Henan [3]. Nickel - Nickel prices are on an upward trend, supported by supply tightening expectations from Indonesia [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 力勤资源 for investment opportunities [4]. Tin - Supply chain bottlenecks and macroeconomic factors are providing short-term support for tin prices [5]. - The report suggests that companies like 华锡有色 and 兴业银锡 may benefit from these market conditions [5]. Lithium - Lithium prices are experiencing wide fluctuations due to export policy expectations and demand uncertainties [6]. - The report recommends关注 companies such as 赣锋锂业 and 天齐锂业 for potential investment [6]. Cobalt - Progress in cobalt shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to support high cobalt prices in the short term [9]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 腾远钴业 for investment opportunities [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the precious metals sector, highlighting strong growth potential for key companies in the industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that gold prices are expected to rise due to a combination of factors including a weakening U.S. economy, ongoing interest rate cuts, and increased demand from central banks [10][11]. - Silver is noted for its dual attributes as both an industrial and financial asset, with expectations for a price rebound driven by industrial demand, particularly in photovoltaic applications [11][10]. Summary by Sections 1. U.S. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is facing downward pressure, with a notable increase in unemployment rates and a decline in consumer confidence [19][26]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue its rate-cutting cycle, which historically correlates with rising gold prices [29][35]. 2. Sovereign Currency Credit Decline - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases as a hedge against declining currency credit, with global central bank gold buying exceeding 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years [8][61]. - The report indicates that the expansion of central bank balance sheets has led to a devaluation of fiat currencies, further supporting gold prices [61][66]. 3. Geopolitical Issues and Investment Demand - Geopolitical tensions and trade policies have heightened risk aversion, leading to increased investments in gold [10][11]. - The report notes a surge in ETF holdings and trading activity in gold, reflecting strong demand from emerging market investors [11][10]. 4. Silver Market Dynamics - Silver's industrial demand, particularly in solar energy, is expected to grow, creating a supply-demand gap that could drive prices higher [11][10]. - The report highlights the historical inverse relationship between the gold-silver ratio and PMI, suggesting potential for silver price increases [11][10]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies in the precious metals sector, including Zijin Mining International, China National Gold, and Western Gold, among others, as having strong growth prospects [4][11].

Core Viewpoint - The silver sector in A-shares has attracted market attention due to rising risk aversion amid global economic uncertainties, with silver being favored for its financial attributes and industrial demand. Group 1: Company Highlights - Hunan Silver (002716.SZ): Latest stock price is 10.54 CNY with a daily increase of +6.25%. It is a significant base for silver production and export in China, having established a complete industrial chain from silver-rich lead concentrate to deep processing of silver products and "Internet+" applications [1]. - Zhuhai Group (600961.SH): Latest stock price is 19.50 CNY with a daily increase of +5.69%. It is a performance stock with silver as one of its main smelting products [2]. - Chihong Zn & Ge (600497.SS): Latest stock price is 9.03 CNY with a daily increase of +5.37%. This comprehensive mining company has a production capacity of over 1,000 tons per year for precious metals including silver [3]. - Zhongjin Lingnan (000060.SZ): Latest stock price is 6.86 CNY with a daily increase of +4.41%. The company’s main products include silver, with silver metal resource reserves of 5,722 tons [4]. - Jinhui Mining (603132.SH): Latest stock price is 16.26 CNY with a daily increase of +3.83%. The main business involves non-ferrous metal mining, primarily producing zinc and lead concentrates (including silver) [5]. - Huayu Mining (601020.SH): Latest stock price is 30.50 CNY with a daily increase of +2.31%. The company has abundant silver resources [6]. - Western Mining (601168.SH): Latest stock price is 30.74 CNY with a daily increase of +2.26%. The company engages in the production and sales of precious metals, including silver ingots [7]. - Hengbang Shares (002237.SZ): Latest stock price is 14.95 CNY with a daily increase of +2.26%. The company primarily focuses on gold and silver as its main products [8]. - Shanjin International (000975.SZ): Latest stock price is 28.55 CNY with a daily increase of +2.18%. It owns Yulong Mining, one of the largest single silver-containing mines in China [9]. - Chifeng Gold (600988.SH): Latest stock price is 32.94 CNY with a daily increase of +1.92%. The company’s main products include silver, with its subsidiary Hanfeng Mining producing lead and copper concentrates containing silver [10]. - Silver Yunnan (601212.SH): Latest stock price is 7.16 CNY with a daily increase of +1.56%. It is a comprehensive production base for various non-ferrous metals in China [11].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector experienced a rise of 1.56% on January 14, with Hunan Silver leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.31% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.56% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Hunan Silver closed at 9.92, up by 9.98%, with a trading volume of 3.897 million shares and a transaction value of 3.805 billion yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Shanjin International, which rose by 3.60% to 27.94, and Sichuan Gold, which increased by 2.51% to 31.49 [1] - The overall precious metals sector saw a net inflow of 238 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 247 million yuan [1] Group 2: Fund Flow Analysis - Main funds showed a net inflow of 88.8975 million yuan for Hunan Silver, while retail investors had a net outflow of 12.6 million yuan [2] - Shanjin International had a net inflow of 77.3476 million yuan from main funds, with retail investors seeing a net outflow of 1.49 million yuan [2] - Sichuan Gold recorded a net inflow of 44.7158 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors faced a net outflow of 4.28173 million yuan [2]