证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 18 年 月 日 有色金属 美联储换届生变，不改长期宽松预期 贵金属：关税担忧引发银价回调，长期逻辑不改。1 月 14 日，特朗普发布总统公告，实施 第 232 条措施，以应对进口加工关键矿物及其衍生品（PCMDPs）相关的国家安全风险。该 公告并未直接对相关产品征收关税，但保留了未来如果谈判未能实现预期结果，对某些 PCMDPs 征收关税的权利。公告要求谈判代表在 180 天内-即 2026 年 7 月 13 日前报告谈判 进展。如果特朗普总统认定协议进展不及时或不足以应对国家安全威胁，他可能会实施额外 措施，包括进口限制。除了关税外，公告还提到政府正在考虑为特定类型关键矿产设定"最 低进口价格"。消息公布后，一部分人认为美国白银库存会冲击全球市场，引发市场对白银 的恐慌抛售，然而根据我们跟踪，COMEX 白银库存已连续数月流出，且 COMEX-伦敦价差此 前也并未显著提升，且目前关税仍处于悬而未决状态，因此对白银供需影响有限。建议关注： 兴业银锡、盛达资源、万国黄金集团、中金黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、银泰黄 金、招金矿业等。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the precious metals sector, highlighting strong growth potential for key companies in the industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that gold prices are expected to rise due to a combination of factors including a weakening U.S. economy, ongoing interest rate cuts, and increased demand from central banks [10][11]. - Silver is noted for its dual attributes as both an industrial and financial asset, with expectations for a price rebound driven by industrial demand, particularly in photovoltaic applications [11][10]. Summary by Sections 1. U.S. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is facing downward pressure, with a notable increase in unemployment rates and a decline in consumer confidence [19][26]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue its rate-cutting cycle, which historically correlates with rising gold prices [29][35]. 2. Sovereign Currency Credit Decline - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases as a hedge against declining currency credit, with global central bank gold buying exceeding 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years [8][61]. - The report indicates that the expansion of central bank balance sheets has led to a devaluation of fiat currencies, further supporting gold prices [61][66]. 3. Geopolitical Issues and Investment Demand - Geopolitical tensions and trade policies have heightened risk aversion, leading to increased investments in gold [10][11]. - The report notes a surge in ETF holdings and trading activity in gold, reflecting strong demand from emerging market investors [11][10]. 4. Silver Market Dynamics - Silver's industrial demand, particularly in solar energy, is expected to grow, creating a supply-demand gap that could drive prices higher [11][10]. - The report highlights the historical inverse relationship between the gold-silver ratio and PMI, suggesting potential for silver price increases [11][10]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies in the precious metals sector, including Zijin Mining International, China National Gold, and Western Gold, among others, as having strong growth prospects [4][11].

今日，A股白银板块表现引发市场关注。在全球宏观经济不确定性犹存、市场避险情绪有所升温的背景 下，兼具金融属性与工业需求的白银受到资金青睐，湖南白银、株冶集团、驰宏锌锗、中金岭南、金徽 股份、华钰矿业、西部矿业，白银板块相关企业整理如下： 湖南白银（002716.SZ） 最新股价：10.54元 日涨幅：+6.25% 亮点：我国白银生产出口的重要基地之一，已形成从富含银的铅精矿到白银产品深加工及"互联网+"的 完整产业链体系。 株冶集团（600961.SH） 最新股价：19.50元 日涨幅：+5.69% 亮点：绩优股，公司主要冶炼产品包括白银。 驰宏锌锗（600497.SS） 最新股价：9.03元 日涨幅：+5.37% 亮点：综合性矿业公司，具备银等稀贵金属1000余吨/年的综合生产能力。 中金岭南（000060.SZ） 华钰矿业（601020.SH） 最新股价：30.50元 日涨幅：+2.31% 最新股价：6.86元 日涨幅：+4.41% 亮点：公司主要产品包括白银，拥有银金属资源储量5722吨。 金徽股份（603132.SH） 最新股价：16.26元 日涨幅：+3.83% 亮点：主营业务为有色金属采选，主要产 ...

证券之星消息，1月14日贵金属板块较上一交易日上涨1.56%，湖南白银领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4126.09，下跌0.31%。深证成指报收于14248.6，上涨0.56%。贵金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002716 | 湖南白银 | 9.92 | 9.98% | 389.70万 | | 38.05亿 | | 000975 | 山金国际 | 27.94 | 3.60% | 48.24万 | | 13.45 Z | | 001337 | 四川黄金 | 31.49 | 2.51% | 23.39万 | | 7.30亿 | | 600489 | 中全黄金 | 26.15 | 1.99% | 1 84.40万 | | 22.00亿 | | 600988 | 赤峰黄金 | 32.32 | 1.60% | 85.37万 | | 27.50亿 | | 000506 | 招金黄金 | 14.32 | 0.70% | 44.69万 | | 6.36亿 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market is experiencing high demand, with international spot gold prices fluctuating between $1900 and $2000 per ounce, and domestic gold prices showing strong performance [1] - Banks are accelerating the launch of structured deposit products linked to gold, with companies also investing directly and engaging in industry chain layouts, making gold assets a core focus for market funds [1] Group 2: Banking Sector - Several major banks have launched over 30 gold-linked structured deposit products since January 2026, with investment periods ranging from 3 months to 1 year and minimum investment amounts typically set at 50,000 or 100,000 yuan [3] - The products generally offer a structure of "guaranteed return + floating return," with guaranteed rates between 1.5% and 2.5%, and potential maximum returns of 4% to 6% based on gold price fluctuations [3] - The issuance of gold-linked structured deposits increased by 47% year-on-year in 2025, with January 2026's issuance reaching 80% of December 2025's total, indicating rising market acceptance [4] Group 3: Corporate Participation - Over 60 listed companies have announced investments in gold-linked financial products or direct gold asset purchases since 2025, with total funds exceeding 20 billion yuan [5] - Companies are diversifying their participation in the gold market, with some investing in gold ETFs and others focusing on the entire gold industry chain, from mining to processing and sales [6] - Mining companies have increased gold production by 12% and 8% year-on-year in 2025, while jewelry companies have expanded production and recycling operations, benefiting from rising gold prices and recovering consumer demand [6] Group 4: Market Drivers - The rise in the gold market is supported by a combination of global economic conditions, policy directions, and market demand, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut in 2026 and ongoing geopolitical tensions driving safe-haven investments into gold [7] - In China, gold consumption reached 1486 tons in 2025, a 12.3% increase year-on-year, with investment gold consumption growing by 23%, highlighting the asset's appeal as a physical investment [7] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the gold market may experience short-term fluctuations, long-term factors such as global economic uncertainty and expectations of monetary policy easing will continue to support gold assets as a valuable investment [8] - Companies are advised to align their gold investments with their core business operations to mitigate risks associated with market volatility and operational challenges [8]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300139 | 院種科技 | 38.47 | 8.52% | 56.63万 | | 21.52亿 | | 002716 | 湖南白银 | 9.02 | 7.64% | 441.51万 | | 39.64亿 | | 000975 | 山金国际 | 26.97 | 4.86% | 52.80万 | | 14.36亿 | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 46.27 | 2.80% | 51.66万 | | 24.01亿 | | 000506 | 招金黄金 | 14.22 | 2.60% | 45.79万 | | 6.54亿 | | 600489 | 中金黄金 | 25.64 | 2.48% | 88.31万 | | 22.76亿 | | 001337 | 四川黄金 | 30.72 | 2.43% | 22.56万 | | 6.92 7 | | 601069 | 西部黄金 | 29.84 | 1.70% | 29.88万 | | 26 ...

山金国际2025年三季报显示，前三季度公司主营收入149.96亿元，同比上升24.23%；归母净利润24.6亿 元，同比上升42.39%；扣非净利润24.46亿元，同比上升36.96%；其中2025年第三季度，公司单季度主 营收入57.5亿元，同比上升3.3%；单季度归母净利润8.64亿元，同比上升32.43%；单季度扣非净利润 8.47亿元，同比上升28.56%；负债率19.16%，投资收益1058.37万元，财务费用3025.22万元，毛利率 28.39%。山金国际（000975）主营业务：贵金属和有色金属矿采选及金属贸易。 证券之星消息，截至2026年1月12日收盘，山金国际(000975)报收于25.72元，上涨1.1%，换手率 1.48%，成交量37.41万手，成交额9.64亿元。 1月12日的资金流向数据方面，主力资金净流出1436.85万元，占总成交额1.49%，游资资金净流出 2252.24万元，占总成交额2.34%，散户资金净流入3689.08万元，占总成交额3.83%。 近5日资金流向一览见下表： 该股主要指标及行业内排名如下： 该股最近90天内共有8家机构给出评级，买入评级7家，增持评级 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 1.08亿 | 4.47% | -1465.69万 | -0.61% | -9312.37万 | -3.87% | | 002716 湖南白银 | | 9294.82万 | 3.53% | 3405.73万 | 1.29% | -1.27 Z | -4.82% | | 300139 | 晓程科技 | 4501.10万 | 3.15% | -4596.59万 | -3.22% | 95.49万 | 0.07% | | 002155 湖南黄金 | | 0.00 | -- | 0.00 | A - | 0.00 | -- | | 000975 山金国际 | | -1436.85万 | -1.49% | -2252.24万 | -2.34% | 3689.08万 | 3.83% | | 002237 | 恒邦股份 | -1919.46万 | - ...

公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入149.96亿元，同比增长24.23%，实现净利润 24.60亿元，同比增长42.39%，基本每股收益为0.8860元，加权平均净资产收益率17.87%。（数据宝） 山金国际股价创出历史新高，截至9:37，该股上涨2.12%，股价报25.98元，成交量722.18万股，成交金 额1.88亿元，换手率0.29%，该股最新A股总市值达721.39亿元，该股A股流通市值656.63亿元。 两融数据显示，该股最新（1月9日）两融余额为9.15亿元，其中，融资余额为9.11亿元，近10日减少 1453.15万元，环比下降1.57%。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，山金国际所属的有色金属行业，目前整体涨幅为1.10%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有88只，涨幅居前的有安泰科技、兴业银锡、晓程科技等，涨幅分别为10.00%、5.99%、 5.75%。股价下跌的有48只，跌幅居前的有东方钽业、翔鹭钨业、江南新材等，跌幅分别为2.94%、 2.42%、2.27%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations are strengthening, and the expansion trend is expected to continue. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will halt interest rate cuts from January to April, leading to a temporary stabilization in the financial attributes. The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on the Trump tariff case may significantly increase price volatility. With supportive policies both domestically and internationally, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged, and the expansion trend is likely to persist [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Strengthening Liquidity Expectations, Continued Expansion Trend - The U.S. unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with non-farm employment increasing by 50,000, below the market expectation of 73,000. This indicates a new equilibrium in the labor market, with both supply and demand growth slowing [12]. 2. Industry and Individual Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 8.56% in the week ending January 9, ranking fourth among all industries [19]. The sector's performance outpaced major indices, with small metals showing the highest gains [20]. 3. Macro Data Tracking - The report highlights various macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. CPI and PPI, as well as China's manufacturing PMI, which stood at 50.1% in December, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector [30][34]. 4. Precious Metals: Increased Volatility Expected Ahead of Tariff Ruling - Gold prices increased, with SHFE gold rising by 2.96% to 1,006.48 CNY per gram and COMEX gold up by 3.59% to 4,473.00 USD per ounce. Silver also saw significant gains, with SHFE silver up by 9.70% to 18,731.00 CNY per kilogram [13][14][27]. 5. Copper: Continued Weakness, Increased Volatility from Tariff Disruptions - Copper prices rose, with SHFE copper increasing by 3.23% to 101,410 CNY per ton and LME copper up by 4.24% to 12,998 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues to affect the market, with copper concentrate treatment charges declining [16][26]. 6. Aluminum: Price Improvement, Export Competition May Increase Mismatch - Aluminum prices increased, with SHFE aluminum rising by 6.13% to 24,330 CNY per ton. The report notes a slight increase in domestic aluminum inventory and stable production capacity [15][78].