口 浪潮信息20240423_智能速览 2024年04月24日 12:35 关键词 PE估值 风险 全文摘要 本次电话会议是国海证券对浪潮信息的年度业绩解读电话会议。会议强调了仅符合国海证券投资者适当 性管理要求的客户和受邀客户可以使用本次会议，并且会议内容不构成任何投资建议。会议介绍了浪潮 信息在2023年的业绩表现，包括收入和净利润的下降以及毛利率的预测。另外，会议还讨论了全球和国 内AI服务器需求的增长趋势以及通用服务器行业的复苏预期。最后，国海证券维持了对浪潮信息的买入 评级，并预计公司的PE估值可达到30倍以上。 章节速览 ● 00:00 浪潮信息2023业绩解读交流 下降。 ● 03:15 公司投资逻辑及毛利率预测 本文讨论了公司投资逻辑和毛利率的预测。去年四季度公司收入和净利润同比增长，毛利率达到较高水 平。供货策略和市场因素是去年毛利率提升的原因。预测今年互联网占比可能下降，政企客户对AI需求 可能增加。一季度毛利率可能受压力，但整体持乐观态度。 ● 05:41 全球和国内AI服务器需求增长 全球和国内AI服务器需求持续增长，互联网资本开支不断上升，服务器ODM厂商指引AI服务器翻倍增 长。运 ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 2024年04月21日 浪潮信息（000977.SZ） 23 年业绩符合预期，AIGC 大浪潮下有望逐步受益 事件：4月19日晚，公司发布《2023年年度报告》，实现营业收入658.67亿元，同比 买入（维持） 降低5.41%（调整后）；归母净利润17.83亿元，同比降低14.54%（调整后），符合市 股票信息 场预期。 行业 计算机设备 23年业绩符合预期，单Q4盈利能力显著提升。1）报告期内，公司实现营业收入658.67 亿元，同比降低5.41%（调整后）；其中，服务器及部件业务实现收入652.40亿元，同 前次评级 买入 比降低5.53%。同时，公司实现归母净利润17.83亿元，同比降低14.54%（调整后）； 4月19日收盘价(元) 35.85 扣非归母净利润 11.18 亿元，同比降低 35.87%（调整后），符合市场预期。2）单 Q4 总市值(百万元) 52,776.04 来看，公司实现营业收入177.70亿元，同比增长5.34%；归母净利润9.96亿元，同比 总股本(百万股) 1,472.14 增长84.47%；扣非归母净利润6.89亿元，同比增长103.13%。 ...

公 司 研 究 浪潮信息（000977.SZ）：产线充沛， 2024年4月23日 推荐/维持 占据国内 AI 服务器制高点 东 浪潮信息 公司报告 兴 证 券 本篇专题从AI服务器生产制造角度，跟踪浪潮信息在原材料库存-产线建设-AI 公司简介： 股 服务器产品储备等三个环节的最新发展动态。我们认为，受益于全球 AI 产业 浪潮信息是全球领先的 IT 基础架构产品、 份 大趋势，公司AI服务器相关业务有望迎来加速发展期。 方案及服务提供商，业务覆盖计算、存储、 有 网络三大关键领域，提供云计算、大数据、 限 净资产收益率有望稳中向好。2013.6-2015.5 期间，公司市值从 52 亿元上涨 人工智能、边缘计算等在内的全方位数字化 公 至423亿元，累计涨幅713%。公司市值提升主要与公司净资产收益率好转以 解决方案。 资料来源：公司公告、恒生聚源 司 及市场流动性放松相关。2013-2015年，公司平均年净资产收益率达到16.8%， 处于上市以来最快成长期，主要受益于公司抓住云计算、国产化带来的巨大市 未来3-6个月重大事项提示： 证 券 场机会，并推出了双路、四路、八路等市场有竞争力的服务器产品；从A股 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is to "maintain attention" due to its solid position in the domestic server market and potential benefits from increasing computing power demand [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company has released its annual report for 2023, showing a revenue of 65.867 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.783 billion yuan, down 14.54% year-on-year. However, in Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 17.770 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.34%, and a net profit of 999.6 million yuan, up 84.47% year-on-year [1]. - The company is seizing opportunities in the intelligent development sector, launching a new generation of G7 computing platforms and AI servers, which significantly enhance performance [2][3]. - The demand for computing power is expected to rise significantly due to the advancements in generative artificial intelligence, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 33.9% for intelligent computing power in China from 2022 to 2027 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 65.867 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -5.41%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 73.836 billion yuan, 84.395 billion yuan, and 95.366 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 12.10%, 14.30%, and 13.00% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is expected to be 1.951 billion yuan, 2.499 billion yuan, and 2.998 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.42%, 28.13%, and 19.95% [6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years are projected to be 1.33 yuan, 1.70 yuan, and 2.04 yuan, with a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.92% [5]. Market Position and Product Development - The company ranks second globally and first in China in server market share, and it is also among the top three in storage market share globally [3]. - The company has introduced a new AI Ethernet switch, X400, specifically designed for generative AI, marking a significant advancement in AI network performance [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 39.13 CNY per share based on a 30x PE ratio for 2024 [4][18]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 65.87 billion CNY in 2023, a decrease of 5.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.78 billion CNY, down 14.5% year-on-year. The gross margin and net margin were 10.0% and 2.7%, respectively, both lower than in 2022 [2][9][16]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to fluctuations in AI server sales, significantly impacted by U.S. export control policies on advanced computing products, particularly affecting NVIDIA high-end AI chips used in the company's servers [2][16]. - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue growth in 2024, driven by the introduction of adjusted performance products by NVIDIA and a potential rebound in general server sales as the macroeconomic environment improves [2][18]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - 2023 revenue was 65.87 billion CNY, down 5.4% from 2022. The net profit was 1.78 billion CNY, a decrease of 14.5% [3][9]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 10.0%, down 1.13 percentage points from 2022, while the net margin decreased by 0.29 percentage points [2][10][17]. - **Quarterly Performance**: - In Q4 2023, revenue increased by 5.3% year-on-year to 17.77 billion CNY, with a net profit of 1.00 billion CNY, up 84.5% year-on-year [9][16]. - **Product Segmentation**: - Server and component business revenue was 65.24 billion CNY in 2023, down 5.5% year-on-year, while IT terminal and components revenue increased by 29.8% to 390 million CNY [10][16]. - **Cost Management**: - The company reduced sales expenses by 3.6% to 1.45 billion CNY, while management expenses increased by 4.5% to 770 million CNY [10][12]. - **Cash Flow**: - The net cash flow from operating activities was 520 million CNY, a decrease of 71.3% year-on-year, primarily due to strategic inventory buildup and increased procurement of raw materials [12][21]. Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 1.30, 1.48, and 1.61 CNY per share, respectively [18][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [4][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 65.867 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 5.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.783 billion yuan, down 14.54% year-on-year [4][5]. - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a significant profit increase, with a net profit of 996 million yuan, marking an 84.47% year-on-year growth, ending a negative growth trend since Q4 2022 [5][6]. - The company is positioned as a global leader in the server industry, benefiting from the demand for computing power driven by AIGC trends [6][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit: The company’s revenue for 2023 was 65.867 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 75.468 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.6% [5][10]. - Profitability: The gross margin for 2023 was 10.0%, with an expected increase to 11.1% in 2024. The net profit margin was 2.7% in 2023, projected to rise to 2.8% in 2024 [5][11]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The diluted EPS for 2023 was 1.21 yuan, with forecasts of 1.45 yuan for 2024 and 1.77 yuan for 2025 [5][11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has launched a new generation of AI training servers, significantly improving performance metrics, and is actively developing AI software infrastructure to support large model applications [8][10]. - The company’s market share in the global server industry remains strong, ranking second globally and first in China, with a focus on cloud computing and AI technologies [6][8]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for computing power, with projections indicating a rise in net profit to 2.142 billion yuan in 2024 and 2.605 billion yuan in 2025 [8][10]. - The report highlights the potential for the company to capitalize on the AIGC market, which is anticipated to drive significant growth in the computing power sector [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue growth of 84% in Q4 2023, driven by a rich supply and growth in demand for AI computing power [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for AI servers and related infrastructure, with a projected recovery in gross margin in 2024 [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a total revenue of 65.867 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.783 billion yuan, down 14.54% [3] - For Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of 17.770 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.34%, and a net profit of 999.6 million yuan, up 84.47% [4] - The gross margin for Q4 2023 was 11.05%, an increase of 2.51 percentage points year-on-year [4] Market Outlook - The global AI computing market is expected to see continued growth, with major Chinese telecom companies initiating large-scale procurement of AI servers [2] - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery in general server demand and the increasing need for digital and intelligent solutions in various sectors [4][5] Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.410 billion yuan, 3.324 billion yuan, and 4.336 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.64 yuan, 2.26 yuan, and 2.95 yuan [7][8]

Topic 1: Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 15% year-over-year, driven by strong sales in the Asia-Pacific region [1]. - Net profit margin improved to 12%, up from 10% in the previous quarter [2]. - Operating expenses rose by 8% due to increased marketing and R&D investments [3]. Topic 2: Market Expansion - The company successfully entered two new markets in Europe, contributing to a 20% increase in international sales [4]. - A new distribution center was opened in South America to support regional growth [5]. - Strategic partnerships were formed with local retailers in Southeast Asia to enhance market penetration [6]. Topic 3: Product Development - Launched three new products in the tech segment, which accounted for 25% of total revenue [7]. - R&D spending increased by 10% to accelerate innovation and product differentiation [8]. - Customer feedback on the new product line has been overwhelmingly positive, with a 90% satisfaction rate [9]. Topic 4: Operational Efficiency - Implemented a new ERP system, reducing operational costs by 5% [10]. - Streamlined supply chain processes, resulting in a 15% reduction in delivery times [11]. - Employee training programs were expanded, leading to a 20% improvement in productivity [12]. Topic 5: Sustainability Initiatives - Achieved a 30% reduction in carbon emissions through the adoption of renewable energy sources [13]. - Launched a recycling program that has successfully diverted 50% of waste from landfills [14]. - Committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2030, with interim targets set for 2025 [15]. Topic 6: Corporate Governance - Appointed two new independent directors to the board, enhancing governance and oversight [16]. - Conducted a comprehensive review of corporate policies to ensure compliance with global standards [17]. - Increased transparency by publishing detailed quarterly reports and holding regular investor briefings [18].

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for 2023 was ¥65,866,587,556.65, a decrease of 5.41% compared to ¥69,525,458,182.69 in 2022[11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was ¥1,782,784,322.91, down 14.54% from ¥2,080,350,926.43 in the previous year[11]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was ¥1,118,364,711.08, reflecting a significant decline of 35.87% from ¥1,738,188,327.89 in 2022[11]. - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 71.30% to ¥520,383,388.46, compared to ¥1,799,991,912.06 in the previous year[11]. - The diluted earnings per share for 2023 was ¥1.1804, a decrease of 15.49% from ¥1.3927 in 2022[11]. - The return on equity for 2023 was 9.89%, down from 13.39% in the previous year, indicating a decline in profitability[11]. - The company achieved a total comprehensive income of CNY 1.82 billion in 2023, down from CNY 2.17 billion in 2022[182]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of 2023 reached ¥48,119,624,861.79, an increase of 16.92% from ¥41,013,425,651.96 in 2022[11]. - Total liabilities rose to CNY 29.84 billion, up from CNY 23.49 billion, indicating an increase of 27.5%[176]. - The debt-to-asset ratio increased to 62.00%, up 4.92% from 57.08% at the end of the previous year[159]. - Total equity increased to CNY 18.28 billion from CNY 17.66 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.5%[176]. Revenue and Cost Management - The company reported a total operating revenue of RMB 65.867 billion for 2023, a decrease of 4.0% compared to RMB 69.635 billion in 2022[165]. - Total operating costs for 2023 were CNY 64,496,974,414.67, down from CNY 67,488,685,383.48 in 2022, reflecting a cost reduction strategy[180]. - The company’s gross margin for the server and components segment was 9.94%, down 1.11% year-on-year[40]. Research and Development - The average R&D cycle for new products has been reduced from 1.5 years to 8 months, a 50% decrease[35]. - The company is committed to increasing R&D investment and strengthening its market position against domestic and international competitors in the server industry[73]. - Research and development expenses decreased by 3.95% from 3,197,415,424.34 CNY in 2022 to 3,071,020,483.24 CNY in 2023[48]. Market Position and Strategy - The company achieved a market share ranking of second globally in servers and first in China in 2023, with storage products also ranking in the top three globally[20]. - The company plans to continue implementing its "Smart Computing" strategy, focusing on enhancing product and technology layout to support the development of digital China and the AI industry[71]. - The AI computing power demand is expected to increase significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 33.9% from 2022 to 2027 in China's intelligent computing scale[72]. Shareholder and Governance - The company has established independent operations from its controlling shareholder, ensuring separation in personnel, assets, institutions, finance, and business[79]. - The company adheres to legal and regulatory requirements for corporate governance, continuously improving its internal control systems and governance structures[78]. - The total annual remuneration for directors, supervisors, and senior management was 41.64 million yuan (pre-tax) as of December 31, 2023[89]. Cash Flow and Financing - The total cash inflow from operating activities for 2023 was CNY 83,294,585,106.58, an increase of 2.7% from CNY 80,131,979,190.73 in 2022[185]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was CNY 520,383,388.46, compared to CNY 1,813,350,490.74 in the previous year, indicating a significant decline[185]. - The company has issued a total of 100,000 million yuan in short-term financing bonds in 2023, with interest rates ranging from 2.33% to 2.52%[150]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces market risks related to macroeconomic fluctuations, which could impact server industry demand and overall performance[72]. - Supply chain risks are present due to reliance on imported raw materials, with potential impacts from geopolitical tensions and trade frictions affecting availability[74]. - Rising labor costs are a concern as the company operates in a labor-intensive industry; efforts will focus on enhancing product profitability and cost control to offset these impacts[74].

上 市 公 司 计算机 2024 年04月 20 日 浪潮信息 (000977) 公 司 研 究 ——业绩符合预期，看好 AI 算力长期需求 公 司 点 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 评 买入 投资要点： （维持）  公司发布23年业绩公告。公司报告期内，实现营业收入658.67亿元，yoy -5.4%；实现 归母净利润 17.83 亿元，yoy -14.5%。23Q4 单季度实现营业收入 177.70 亿元，yoy 证 市场数据： 2024年04月19日 +5.3%；实现归母净利润9.96亿元，yoy +84.5%。业绩符合预期。 券 收盘价（元） 35.85 研 一年内最高/最低（元） 66.22/26.62  毛利率短期承压，预计逐步恢复。据公司年报，报告期内公司整体毛利率 10.04%，较去 究 市净率 2.9 报 息率（分红/股价） - 年同期-1.14pct，主要系 23 年客户结构短期变化导致毛利率整体波动，预计随着供需不 告 流通A股市值（百万元） 52708 平衡逐步缓解，毛利率逐步恢复。 上证指数/深证成指 3065.26/9279.46 注：“息率”以最近一年已公布分红计算  费用 ...