炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 日前，A股市场2024年报和2025年一季报业绩披露已经收官，黄金产业链上市公司的业绩全貌也完全展 现。 在金价大幅走高的背景下，金价上涨对产业链相关上市公司业绩的影响也清晰地展现出来。 值得注意的是，上述这种变化是金价持续上涨的背景下黄金产业链上下游出现的变化。如果后续金价走 势逆转，则相关影响可能也会正好相反。 "金饰"卖不动 黄金珠宝上市公司业绩普降 最近一年多来，黄金价格持续上涨，对一些主营业务涉及金饰销售的黄金珠宝上市公司构成明显压力。 比如黄金珠宝龙头企业老凤祥日前披露的2024年年报显示，公司2024年实现营业收入567.93亿元，同比 降低20.50%；利润总额34.18亿元，同比降低14.10%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润19.50亿元，同比降 低11.95%。老凤祥在上述年报中提及，2024年，世界经济增长动能不足，国内有效需求不足、消费不 振，叠加黄金价格持续上涨不断刷新历史新高，导致黄金珠宝消费疲软。 2025年一季度，老凤祥营收和利润再度同比双降，公司实现营业收入175.21亿元，同比下降31.64%，实 现归 ...

Group 1 - Hunan Gold has experienced a continuous decline for six trading days, with a cumulative drop of -15.05% [1] - The company was established as Hunan Chenzhou Mining Co., Ltd. on December 25, 2000, and was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on August 16, 2007 [1] - Four funds under Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund have entered the top ten shareholders of Hunan Gold, all of which have reduced their holdings in the first quarter of this year [1] Group 2 - The performance of Qianhai Kaiyuan funds shows negative returns, with Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong and Shanghai Advantage Selection Mixed A yielding -0.14% this year, ranking 1049 out of 2307 [1] - Other funds under Qianhai Kaiyuan also reported negative returns, with Qianhai Kaiyuan Quality Enterprises Mixed A at -0.67%, Qianhai Kaiyuan China Scarce Assets Mixed A at -5.86%, and Qianhai Kaiyuan National Comparative Advantage Mixed A at -5.76% [1] - The average performance of similar funds and the CSI 300 index also reflects negative trends, indicating a challenging market environment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the A-share non-ferrous metal industry is experiencing a renewed interest from actively managed equity funds, particularly in gold and copper sectors, driven by external economic factors and a favorable outlook for gold prices [1][5]. Group 1: Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q1 2025, actively managed equity funds increased their holdings in the A-share non-ferrous metal industry, with the market value of heavy holdings rising to 2.18% of total stock investments, up from 1.76% in Q4 2024, marking a 0.42 percentage point increase after two consecutive quarters of reduction [2]. - The main focus of fund replenishment in Q1 2025 was on the gold and copper sectors, with respective market value proportions of 0.44% and 0.85% of total fund stock investments, reflecting increases of 0.18 percentage points for gold and 0.18 percentage points for copper compared to Q4 2024 [3]. Group 2: Concentration of Holdings - The concentration of holdings in the A-share non-ferrous metal industry increased, with the top 10 stocks accounting for 73.23% of the total market value of heavy holdings, up 3 percentage points from the previous quarter [4]. - The top stocks held by actively managed equity funds in the non-ferrous metal sector include Zijin Mining, Yun Aluminum, Shandong Gold, and others, with notable increases in holdings for companies like Zhongfu Industrial and Chuangjiang New Materials [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing U.S. tariff increases and the resulting economic uncertainties may lead to a sustained rise in gold prices, which are expected to stabilize around $3,000 per ounce, thereby enhancing the performance and cash flow of gold companies [1][5]. - There is significant room for increased holdings in the A-share gold sector, as current positions remain below the high levels seen in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating potential for further investment [5]. - The report recommends focusing on stocks such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, and others in the gold sector, as well as high-dividend, low-valuation leaders in the copper and aluminum sectors like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum for medium to long-term investment [5].

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent developments in the non-ferrous metals industry, including advancements in AI tools by ByteDance and Meituan, indicating a growing demand for AI-driven solutions in various sectors [1] - The market performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows a positive trend, with the SW non-ferrous metals industry index increasing by 1.50% [2] - Key metal prices have shown varied movements, with copper, aluminum, and zinc prices rising, while some rare earth elements have decreased [3] Market Performance - As of April 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56% to 3295.06 points, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.38% to 3786.99 points [2] - The SW non-ferrous metals industry index reached 4641 points, reflecting a 1.50% increase [2] - Among the five sub-industries in non-ferrous metals, industrial metals and energy metals saw increases of 2.35% and 2.93%, respectively, while precious metals decreased by 2.52% [2] Key Metal Prices - The prices for key metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are as follows: copper at 77,440 CNY/ton (+1.91%), aluminum at 20,030 CNY/ton (+1.68%), zinc at 22,750 CNY/ton (+3.34%), lead at 16,945 CNY/ton (+0.68%), nickel at 125,800 CNY/ton (+0.15%), and tin at 262,840 CNY/ton (+2.39%) [3] - On the London Metal Exchange, copper, aluminum, and zinc prices also increased, with copper at 9,360 USD/ton (+1.87%) and aluminum at 2,438 USD/ton (+3.04%) [3] - Gold and silver prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 787.20 CNY/gram (+0.22%) and 8,280 CNY/kilogram (+1.79%), respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China may enhance market risk appetite, leading to potential rebounds in industrial metal stocks [4][5] - Specific recommendations include investing in gold-related A-shares such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold Mining, and Hunan Gold, as well as industrial metal leaders like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [9]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for copper and aluminum prices due to improving downstream demand and inventory depletion [5][7]. - Gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend supported by the ongoing interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve [9]. - The tin market is anticipated to experience weak price movements due to a lack of short-term catalysts [9]. - Antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, but long-term supply-demand dynamics may support prices [9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector showed a weekly increase of 2.04%, outperforming other sectors [19]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included tungsten (+4.50%), nickel (+3.79%), and aluminum (+3.78%) [19]. Copper Market - LME copper closed at $9,415 per ton, up $283 per ton (3.10%) from April 17 [5]. - SHFE copper closed at ¥77,650 per ton, up ¥1,780 per ton (2.34%) from April 17 [5]. - Domestic copper social inventory decreased significantly, indicating strong demand [6]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices reached ¥20,100 per ton, an increase of ¥210 per ton (1.06%) [7]. - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 12,575 tons, while domestic SHFE inventory also saw a decline [7]. - The operating rate for leading aluminum profile enterprises increased to 59.5% [8]. Tin Market - Domestic refined tin prices rose to ¥263,180 per ton, up ¥6,800 per ton (2.65%) [9]. - The market is expected to remain weak due to insufficient demand catalysts [9]. Antimony Market - Domestic antimony ingot prices fell to ¥235,500 per ton, down ¥8,000 per ton [9]. - The market activity is low, with cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [9]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, including Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, and Huaxi Youshi [10][12][13].

Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - The company anticipates a performance exceeding 2 billion in 2025, contingent on gold prices at 700 thousand and antimony prices at 23 thousand [3] - The company will disclose the expected year-on-year growth for the semi-annual report in accordance with regulatory requirements [4] Group 2: Market Conditions and Product Insights - Antimony prices have seen an increase due to tight raw material supply since the beginning of the year [3] - The company’s antimony exports and imports have significantly decreased year-on-year due to external market conditions [4] Group 3: Corporate Actions and Strategic Plans - The company is actively pursuing the acquisition of the Wangu gold mine, with ongoing discussions with the controlling shareholder and local government [3][4] - The company has a priority acquisition right for the gold resources development project in Pingjiang County, as per the agreement signed in June 2021 [4] Group 4: Shareholder Engagement and Governance - The company is committed to enhancing shareholder returns and confidence through improved governance, internal controls, and operational efficiency [5] - The company plans to increase dividend payouts as part of its strategy to reward investors [5] Group 5: Operational Efficiency and Mergers - The absorption of two subsidiaries by the company’s wholly-owned subsidiary aims to improve operational efficiency [4] - The company is exploring the integration of antimony mines and smelting enterprises in Hunan Province and other regions [4]

Group 1 - A-share gold stocks experienced a significant decline in the afternoon trading session, with Western Gold dropping nearly 5% [1] - Chifeng Gold fell over 3%, indicating a broader downturn in the gold sector [1] - Other companies such as Sichuan Gold, Hunan Gold, and Xiaocheng Technology also saw declines [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on gold stocks, indicating a continued bullish sentiment towards the gold industry [4]. Core Insights - The logic behind rising gold prices remains unchanged, with a significant increase in gold ETF holdings and a strong desire among global central banks to accumulate gold [2][3]. - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to geopolitical tensions and the weakening of the US dollar's credit, enhancing gold's monetary attributes [2]. - There is a notable divergence between gold prices and gold stocks, which has historically corrected following periods of price stabilization [3]. Summary by Sections Gold Price Trends - As of April 22, 2025, SHFE gold closed at 831.4 CNY/g and London gold at 3433.6 USD/oz, both reaching historical highs before a slight decline [1]. - By April 23, 2025, prices dropped to 784 CNY/g and 3263 USD/oz, reflecting a decrease of 5.7% and 5% respectively [1]. Investment Demand - Since May 2024, there has been a marked increase in gold investment demand, with global gold ETF holdings rising to approximately 3445.3 tons by the end of March 2025, an increase of 365.6 tons or 12% [2]. - In April 2025, Asian gold ETFs significantly accelerated their purchases, accounting for 47% of the global increase in the week of April 18 [2]. Central Bank Accumulation - Global central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves, with China resuming purchases in November 2024 and accumulating 355.6 tons from January 2022 to March 2025 [3]. - The report highlights that China accounted for approximately 26% of the total global central bank gold purchases during this period [3]. Stock Performance - The report notes that the Shenyin Wanguo gold index PE (TTM) is at 30 times, which is at the 17th percentile since 2010, indicating potential for growth despite short-term price corrections [4]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong earnings elasticity, such as Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold, Hunan Gold, Zijin Mining, and Shanjin International [4].

Financial Performance - Hunan Gold reported a total revenue of 13.121 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 67.83% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 332 million yuan, up 104.63% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin was 4.87%, down 13.99% compared to the previous year, while the net profit margin increased by 21.9% to 2.6% [1] Key Financial Metrics - Operating expenses, management expenses, and financial expenses totaled 160 million yuan, accounting for 1.22% of revenue, a decrease of 36.73% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) doubled to 0.28 yuan, reflecting a 100% increase year-on-year [1] - The cash flow from operating activities per share was 0.19 yuan, a significant increase of 208.1% year-on-year [1] Market Position and Analyst Expectations - Analysts expect Hunan Gold's performance for 2025 to reach 2.2 billion yuan, with an average EPS forecast of 1.83 yuan [3] - The company has a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.75%, indicating strong capital returns [6] Fund Holdings - The largest fund holding Hunan Gold shares is Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong and Shenzhen Advantage Selection Mixed A, with 16.2229 million shares [4] - The fund's current scale is 4.61 billion yuan, with a recent net value increase of 0.75% [4]

21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 广州报道 黄金价格大跌冲上今日热搜，现货黄金4月23日持续走低，盘中 失守3300美元/盎司整数关口，日内跌超2%，相较前一日的高点3499.45美元/盎司，下跌超过200美元/盎 司。与此同时，沪金主连今日下跌4.55%，开盘不久就击穿800元/克的支撑，收报784.28美元/克。 与此同时多家银行提示黄金投资风险，建设银行表示，近期国内外贵金属价格波动加剧，市场风险提 升。请提高贵金属业务的风险防范意识，合理控制仓位，及时关注持仓情况和保证金余额变化情况，理 性投资。 工商银行提醒，近期国际形势复杂多变，贵金属价格波动较大。建议您提高风险防范意识，基于自身财 务状况和风险承受能力理性开展贵金属投资活动，合理控制贵金属资产规模，防范贵金属价格波动风 险。 3月19日，江苏银行也曾发布公告称，不法分子通过各种"炒金"、"抢金"、"套现"等各种手段诱导持卡 人进行信用卡"炒金类"投资，不仅违反信用卡使用规定，更存在巨大资金风险。 排排网财富理财师负责人孙恩祥在接受记者采访时表示，金价大跌其实是意料之内。前期黄金涨幅过 猛，连续突破几个重要关口，一路冲至3500美元/盎司关口，投资人 ...