Core Viewpoint - The military industry sector in A-shares has seen a significant increase in attention and investment, with a notable rise in stock prices driven by market sentiment and geopolitical factors, despite underlying performance challenges in the first quarter of 2024 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The military ETF recorded a cumulative increase of 4.91% last week, with a further rise of 4.68% on May 12, 2024, indicating strong market interest [1]. - The defense and military index has seen a cumulative increase of 13.42% since May, ranking among the top three sectors in terms of growth [4]. - Key stocks such as AVIC Chengfei (中航成飞) and Morningstar Aviation (晨曦航空) experienced significant price surges, with some stocks hitting the daily limit up [1][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the military sector's total revenue was 1,067.53 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.15% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 4.40% to 56.14 billion yuan [4][5]. - The overall profitability of the military sector remains at a low point compared to previous cycles, with many companies experiencing a decline in net profit despite some revenue recovery [2][4]. - Among 40 leading companies, the average revenue growth rate in Q1 was 15.14%, a recovery from the previous year's decline [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Companies in the military sector have set optimistic revenue targets for 2025, with expected growth rates for key players such as AVIC Xi'an (中航西飞) and AVIC High-Tech (中航高科) ranging from 2% to 14% [8]. - The contract liabilities of major manufacturers have increased, indicating a potential for revenue realization in the coming quarters [8]. - Despite a reduction in public fund allocations to the military sector over the past ten quarters, there is a belief that the sector's fundamentals will improve, leading to a potential recovery in valuations [9][10].

Group 1 - The military industry is currently in a short-term performance bottoming phase, with leading companies, especially main engine manufacturers, showing a significant recovery in revenue year-on-year in Q1, although net profits remain under pressure [1][2] - The capital market's interest in the military industry has increased significantly, with military ETFs showing a cumulative increase of 4.91% last week, driven by heightened market sentiment due to geopolitical tensions [1][3] - In Q1, the military sector's total revenue was 1,067.53 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.15%, while net profit was 56.14 billion, down 4.40% [3][4] Group 2 - Among 40 leading companies in the military sector, all achieved positive revenue growth in Q1, with 14 companies experiencing double-digit growth, contrasting with 22 companies that saw revenue declines in the same period last year [4][5] - The average net profit growth rate for these 40 companies was -35.57%, indicating a significant decline in profitability compared to the previous year [4][5] - Some companies, such as Aviation Power and Aerospace Rainbow, reported net profit declines exceeding 70%, highlighting the challenges faced by the industry [5][6] Group 3 - Long-term profitability in the military sector is currently below the previous cycle's starting point in 2019, and the potential for a performance turnaround is crucial for further valuation increases [6][8] - Several companies have disclosed ambitious revenue targets for 2025, indicating positive growth expectations within the aerospace and shipbuilding sectors [6][8] - Public funds have been reducing their allocation to the military sector for ten consecutive quarters, with military-themed fund sizes decreasing significantly since their peak in Q1 2021 [7][8] Group 4 - The military industry is expected to undergo a valuation restructuring, benefiting from improved asset quality and market conditions, with a more favorable outlook for the second half of the year compared to the first half [8]

Core Insights - The China Central Enterprise Innovation Driven Index (000861) has shown a strong increase of 1.37% as of May 12, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Ruike Laser (300747) up 11.37% and Guorui Technology (600562) up 9.99% [3] - The Central Enterprise Innovation Driven ETF (515900) has also risen by 1.34%, with a latest price of 1.44 yuan, and has a trading volume of 562.87 million yuan [3] - The ETF's scale has reached 3.3 billion yuan, ranking it in the top quarter among comparable funds [3] Performance Metrics - As of May 9, 2025, the Central Enterprise Innovation Driven ETF has achieved a net value increase of 24.83% over the past three years, ranking 312 out of 1747 in equity funds, placing it in the top 17.86% [4] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 15.05% since inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being five months and a total gain of 24.91% [4] - The average return for the months with gains is 4.08%, and the annual profit percentage stands at 80.00%, with a historical three-year holding profit probability of 97.34% [4] Risk and Fee Structure - The management fee for the Central Enterprise Innovation Driven ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [4] - The tracking error over the past five years is 0.038%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4] Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the Central Enterprise Innovation Driven Index include Hikvision (002415), State Grid NARI (600406), and China Telecom (601728), collectively accounting for 34.48% of the index [5][6] - The individual weights of the top stocks range from 5.08% for Hikvision to 2.60% for China Railway (601390) [8]

Group 1 - The A500 Index ETF has shown significant liquidity with a turnover rate of 4.32% and a transaction volume of 626 million yuan [2] - Over the past week, the A500 Index ETF has achieved an average daily transaction volume of 2.408 billion yuan, ranking in the top three among comparable funds [2] - The A500 Index ETF has experienced a growth of 17 million yuan in scale over the past three months, leading among comparable funds [2] Group 2 - The A500 Index ETF has seen a notable increase in shares, with a growth of 10.2 million shares over the past week [2] - In the last four trading days, the A500 Index ETF recorded net inflows of 97.4215 million yuan on three occasions [2] - The underlying index, the CSI A500 Index, is currently valued at a historical low with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.51, which is below 89.58% of the time over the past year, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [2] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 Index account for 20.8% of the index, including major companies such as Kweichow Moutai, CATL, and Ping An Insurance [2] - The market is expected to regain activity with a clear structural trend, supported by recent major policy announcements that enhance market transaction enthusiasm [3] - External factors affecting the market have shown signs of improvement, leading to a decrease in uncertainty and a potential increase in risk appetite [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Military Trade Investment Opportunities Amidst India-Pakistan Conflict Industry Overview - The conference discusses the military trade (military trade) industry, particularly focusing on China's military exports and the implications of the India-Pakistan conflict on military trade dynamics [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - The India-Pakistan conflict highlights the practical capabilities of Chinese military products, potentially expanding the market for Chinese weapon systems and attracting more international customers [1]. - China's military exports are transitioning from single weapon systems to integrated combat equipment, such as armored brigade systems, which significantly enhances international competitiveness [1]. - In 2023, China's military export share reached 8.4%, indicating growth potential compared to companies like Lockheed Martin [1][13]. - The conflict may lead to increased demand for drones, with manufacturers like Aerospace Rainbow and Zhongyun Drone benefiting from potential high consumption rates [1][22]. - The military trade investment focus for 2025 includes restructuring, military trade, and new domains, with an emphasis on unmanned systems and long-range artillery [1][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - The military trade landscape is influenced by geopolitical tensions, with small nations relying on imports due to insufficient domestic capabilities, which may drive demand for Chinese military products [6][9]. - The importance of military technology dual-use (civilian and military applications) is emphasized as a long-term investment opportunity [3][17]. - The valuation of China's defense industry may improve due to increased military cooperation and exports, similar to the revenue models of major U.S. defense contractors [5][17]. - Challenges such as payment capabilities in regions like the Middle East and Africa may affect the sustainability of military trade orders [6]. - The comprehensive capabilities of Chinese military systems, including missiles, radars, and integrated systems, provide a competitive edge in the international market [3][8][18]. Notable Companies and Products - Key Chinese military companies mentioned include: - **Land Equipment**: Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group (tanks), Aerospace Rainbow (drones), and various aircraft manufacturers like Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group and Shenyang Aircraft Corporation [7][20]. - **Missile Systems**: China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (long-range artillery) and China North Industries Group Corporation [7][20]. - **Data Link Technology**: Companies like 712 Institute and Raytheon Power are highlighted for their contributions to integrated military systems [7][20]. Future Trends - The future of military trade will focus on integrated combat systems, with a significant emphasis on the export of comprehensive military capabilities rather than individual products [19]. - Drones are expected to become critical consumables in future conflicts, with manufacturers poised to benefit from increased demand [22]. - The military trade landscape is likely to evolve with changing geopolitical dynamics, impacting procurement decisions globally [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The military industry stocks have shown strong performance recently, with the China Securities Military Industry Index rising by 5.82% in the past week, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Several military stocks have experienced significant gains, with ST Lihang achieving four consecutive daily limit-ups, and companies like Chengfei Integration and Tianjian Technology seeing three consecutive limit-ups [2]. - The average increase for military-themed funds was approximately 5.3%, with specific funds like the Huaxia Military Safety Fund rising by 9.22% [2]. - Over 37 out of 40 military stocks in the index saw price increases during this period, reflecting strong market interest [2]. Group 2: Fundamental Improvements - The military sector is expected to see a significant improvement in performance starting from the second quarter, with many companies likely to report better earnings [2][4]. - There is a notable recovery in military demand, with some upstream companies reporting improved order volumes both year-on-year and month-on-month [1][5]. - The military industry is positioned as one of the few sectors experiencing a positive economic cycle this year, with defensive attributes that may lead to independent market performance [3][5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The military sector is currently undervalued, with a price-to-book ratio of approximately 3.12, which is relatively low compared to other technology sectors [4]. - Key areas of investment interest include low-altitude economy, military electronics, and advanced military materials, which are expected to benefit from increased orders and market demand [6][7]. - The military industry is anticipated to experience a significant increase in global defense budgets starting in 2025, further stimulating the military trade market [5][7].

近日，在大盘震荡回暖的背景下军工股表现却颇为亮眼，在过去的一周内，中证军工指数涨幅高达5.82%， 更有多只个股走出连板行情，相关ETF也迎来资金的积极涌入。 在主动权益基金对军工股配置达到历史底部之际，军工股的基本面也在今年一季度初现曙光，有机构指出，此 前积压的需求有望快速释放，当前部分上游企业订单规模同环比有明显好转，且公布的订单数据也显示了下游 已逐步进入高景气阶段。 军工板块逆势上涨 在过去的一周内，个股方面，ST立航4连板、成飞集成、天箭科技、奥普光电等走出3连板，千亿市值的中航 成飞上涨约36%，国博电子涨超20%，航天彩虹、中无人机以及超卓航科均有两位数的涨幅，其间中证军工板 块内40只个股中超过37只个股上涨。 资金的涌入不仅提振了个股的走势，也拉动了主题基金的净值。上周军工主题基金平均涨幅约为5.3%，重仓 低空经济、商业航天等概念的华夏军工安全上涨9.22%，长信国防军工与中邮军民融合均涨超7%；ETF份额方 面，国泰中证军工ETF增超8400万份，易方达中证军工ETF上涨3700万份。 此外，华泰证券研报认为，海外军贸方面，全球军费开支增长明显，我国武器装备出口迎来发展机遇。"我们 认 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the defense and military industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recent escalation of conflict between India and Pakistan, which has implications for military trade opportunities [4][5]. - Pakistan is identified as a significant market for Chinese military exports, accounting for approximately 60% of China's military trade exports from 2019 to 2023 [5]. - The report emphasizes the need for state-owned military enterprises to enhance their international competitiveness, suggesting that there is substantial room for growth in revenue and profit margins compared to international military giants [6]. - Key listed companies in the defense sector include Guorui Technology, AVIC Chengfei, Aerospace Nanhua, Guobo Electronics, Leidian Weili, Zhong无人机, and Aerospace Rainbow [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - Closing point: 1439.46 - 52-week high: 1712.48 - 52-week low: 1113.62 [1]. Recent Research Reports - The report references a recent publication indicating that 20 out of 62 military listed companies reported year-on-year growth in their Q1 2025 earnings [4].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3328.43 points, above the six-month moving average, with an increase of 0.37% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 12152.25 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Six-Month Moving Average - A total of 144 A-shares have surpassed the six-month moving average today [1] - Notable stocks with significant deviation rates include: - JinHao Medical: 26.73% - SuAo Sensor: 19.75% - HuaWu Co., Ltd.: 17.98% [1] Stocks with Smaller Deviation Rates - Stocks with smaller deviation rates that have just crossed the six-month moving average include: - Aerospace Intelligent Manufacturing - Changqing Technology - China Merchants Highway [1] Performance of Selected Stocks - JinHao Medical: Today's increase of 29.96% with a turnover rate of 23.69% [1] - SuAo Sensor: Increased by 20.05% with a turnover rate of 8.96% [1] - HuaWu Co., Ltd.: Increased by 19.94% with a turnover rate of 20.89% [1] Additional Notable Stocks - Other stocks with notable performance include: - JiuDing Investment: 9.97% increase, 7.73% turnover rate - Arrow Home: 10.02% increase, 8.27% turnover rate - Construction Industry: 10.01% increase, 13.40% turnover rate [1]

Group 1 - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Technology Leading Index (932038) has seen a strong increase of 2.05%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as AVIC Chengfei (302132) up 19.31%, Aerospace Rainbow (002389) up 10.02%, and Guobo Electronics (688375) up 8.53% [1] - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Technology Leading ETF (562380) has also risen by 2.36%, marking its third consecutive increase, with the latest price reported at 0.87 yuan [1] - Over the past year, the Central State-Owned Enterprises Technology Leading ETF has accumulated a total increase of 9.14%, with an average daily trading volume of 709.56 million yuan [1] Group 2 - China's defense budget has maintained an increase of around 7%, with defense spending accounting for less than 1.5% of GDP, which is below the average level of major military powers [2] - There is significant growth potential for China's defense spending, which is expected to outpace GDP growth in the long term [2] - The military industry is anticipated to emerge from a two-year period of stagnation, entering a phase of performance improvement and valuation enhancement, particularly in advanced fighter jets, low-altitude economy, domestic large aircraft, satellite internet, and deep-sea technology sectors [2]