Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [4][12]. Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 7.37% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit increase of 25.35% [1]. - The sales volume of beer increased by 2.75% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a notable 14.81% growth in high-end beer sales [1]. - The company is benefiting from a reduction in raw material costs, which has positively impacted its gross margin [2]. - The company is strategically upgrading its production capacity to align with the high-end beer market trend [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.89%, and a net profit of 307 million yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit margin for Q3 improved by 0.6 percentage points, driven by a 5.5% decrease in per-ton costs and a 4% increase in gross margin [2]. - The company forecasts net profit growth rates of 25%, 14%, and 13% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profit amounts of 780 million yuan, 890 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan [2][3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 5.378 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.569 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.28% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.28 yuan in 2023 to 0.45 yuan in 2026 [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 32.80 in 2023 to 20.46 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation [3].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's beer sales, operating income, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.75%, 7.37%, and 25.35% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The high-end beer product sales grew by 14.81% year-on-year, indicating a steady advancement in the company's product premiumization process [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The Chinese beer industry has entered a stable development phase, characterized by intense competition; however, there is still room for structural upgrades in beer consumption [1] - The company aims to align with the high-end beer development trend and will focus on innovation-driven growth to enhance product upgrades [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on continuously improving product strength, sales capability, and brand power, promoting a better structure and stronger channels, while seeking breakthroughs through technological innovation [2] - The goal is to empower industrial upgrades and enhance management efficiency [2]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's beer sales, operating income, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.75%, 7.37%, and 25.35% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The dividend amount for the year 2023 accounts for 44.37% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in the consolidated financial statements for 2023 [2] Group 2: Industry and Product Development - The Chinese beer industry has entered a stable development phase, with intense competition; however, there is room for growth in the structural upgrade of beer consumption [1] - The company's high-end beer product sales increased by 14.81% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating a steady advancement in the high-end product strategy [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance management efficiency through technological innovation, strengthen procurement management, and promote high-quality development in the beer brewing industry and beer culture [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported strong sales growth in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 19.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.1 billion, up 10.6% year-on-year. The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 48.9 billion, reflecting a 7.4% increase year-on-year [3][4] - The company is expected to maintain a trend of increasing both volume and price, with projected EPS for 2024-2026 at RMB 0.36, 0.42, and 0.48, representing year-on-year growth of 27.4%, 16.4%, and 14.8% respectively [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 48.9 billion, a 7.4% increase year-on-year. Beer sales volume increased by 2.7% to 1.182 million tons, while the average price per ton rose by 4.5% to RMB 4,135. High-end beer sales grew by 14.8% year-on-year [3][4] - In Q3 2024, revenue was RMB 19.0 billion, with sales volume and price per ton increasing by 4.7% and 2.1% respectively [4] Cost and Profitability - The company benefited from a decrease in raw material costs, leading to a reduction in cost per ton by 2.7% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024. The gross margin improved to 49.3% for the first three quarters and 49.8% for Q3 2024, reflecting increases of 3.8 and 4.0 percentage points year-on-year respectively [4] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 16.5%, and for Q3 2024, it was 16.1%, both showing improvements year-on-year [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its upward trend in both sales volume and pricing, driven by product upgrades and increased market penetration in the southern China region. The ongoing marketing reforms and brand strategy are anticipated to support this growth [4] - The projected EPS for 2024-2026 indicates a strong growth trajectory, with corresponding PE ratios of 25.6, 22.0, and 19.2 times [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][6][8] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.887 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.37%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 808 million yuan, up 25.35% year-on-year [4][6] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.89%, with a net profit of 307 million yuan, up 10.60% year-on-year [4][6] - The company's sales growth outperformed the industry, with a volume increase of 4.8% year-on-year in Q3, while the national beer production decreased by 4.1% [4][5] - The gross margin improved by 4.0 percentage points year-on-year due to product structure upgrades and lower raw material costs, with a net profit margin of 16.1% in Q3 [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024-2026, the company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.733 billion, 6.056 billion, and 6.388 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.6%, 5.6%, and 5.5% respectively [2][6] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 800 million, 905 million, and 1.018 billion yuan, with growth rates of 28.4%, 13.1%, and 12.5% respectively [2][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.36, 0.41, and 0.46 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][6] Market Position and Strategy - The core product, 97 Pure Draft, has strengthened its market penetration, particularly in Guangdong, where the company has increased its market share [5][6] - The company has launched high-end products such as Zhujiang P9 and Zhujiang 1985 to enhance its product matrix and support long-term premiumization [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhujiang Beer (002461) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.89 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million yuan, up 25.3% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, and a net profit of 310 million yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year [1] - The product structure continues to upgrade, with Q3 showing both volume and price increases, driven by high-end product sales growth of 14.8% year-on-year [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 49.3%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 59.8% for the quarter, up 4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The average price per ton increased by 4.5% year-on-year to 4,135 yuan/ton in Q3 2024 [1] - The company's net profit margin improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 16.1% in Q3 2024, benefiting from lower raw material costs and product structure upgrades [2] Future Outlook - The company has a strong consumer base in South China, with significant potential for product structure upgrades, particularly in the high-end market [3] - The "3+N" brand strategy focuses on upgrading from regular pure beer to high-end products, aiming to consolidate market share in the 8 yuan and above price segment [3] - Long-term stable growth is expected as the proportion of high-end products increases, supported by a continuous decline in costs [3] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.37 yuan, 0.43 yuan, and 0.49 yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 26x, 22x, and 19x [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Zhujiang Beer (002461) with a target price of 10.36, compared to the last closing price of 9.58 [1]. Core Views - Zhujiang Beer reported strong sales growth in Q3 2024, with a notable performance from its flagship product, 97 Pure Draft, which continues to show high growth momentum [2][3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.887 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 808 million yuan, up 25.35% year-on-year [2][3]. - Despite a slight decline in the overall beer industry due to adverse weather and weak consumption, Zhujiang Beer managed to increase its sales volume by 2.7% year-on-year, with high-end beer sales growing by 14.8% [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Zhujiang Beer reported revenue of 1.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.89%, and a net profit of 307 million yuan, up 10.60% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s gross margin reached 49.32% in Q1-Q3 2024, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix upgrades and cost optimization [2][3]. - The net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 16.50%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Sales and Cost Structure - The average selling price per ton increased by 4.5% year-on-year to 4,135 yuan, while the cost per ton decreased by 2.7% to 2,096 yuan [2]. - The sales expense ratio increased year-on-year, reflecting heightened promotional activities during the peak season [2]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 8% for 2024, 8% for 2025, and 7% for 2026, with net profit growth expected at 33%, 17%, and 15% respectively [2][3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.37 yuan in 2024, 0.44 yuan in 2025, and 0.50 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23x, 19x, and 17x [2][3].

珠江啤酒（002461.SZ）2024 年三季报点评 收入α维持，盈利稳步提升 2024 年 10 月 26 日 ➢ 事件：2024 年 10 月 24 日，公司发布 2024 年三季报。2024 年前三季 度，公司营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润实现 48.87/8.07/7.68 亿元，分别同 比+7.37%/+25.35%/+27.23%；经测算，24Q3 公司营收/归母净利润/扣非归 母净利润实现 19.01/3.07/2.92 亿元，分别同比+6.89%/+10.60%/+9.10%。 ➢ 收入维持前期增势，非现饮占比高+渠道利润周期创造α。24Q3 公司收入 同比增 6.89%，其中销量 48.34 万吨，同比+4.75%，千升酒收入 3932 元，同 比+2.04%。24Q1/Q2 公司收入分别同比增 7.05%/8.07%，三季度公司收入延 续前期增势，维持量价齐升，同时销量跑赢行业大盘（2024 年 7- 9 月我国啤酒 总产量分别为 358.60/358.50/290.40 万吨，同比-10.88%/-4.25%/+1.33%， Q3 合计同比-5.26%）。在消费整体下游需求偏弱背景下公 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——2024 年三季报点评 收入增势持续，毛销差扩张 珠江啤酒(002461) 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|--------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | [table_Authors] 訾猛 ( 分析师 ) | 陈力宇 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38677618 | | | | | | | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | chenliyu@gtjas.com | | | | | | | | 登记编 ...

Revenue and Profit Growth - Revenue for the third quarter reached 1.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.89%[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 306.73 million yuan, up 10.60% year-on-year[2] - Total operating revenue for the period reached 4,886,863,556.88 yuan, an increase from 4,551,272,884.20 yuan in the previous period[12] - Operating profit rose to 972,017,419.52 yuan, up from 784,215,740.62 yuan in the same period last year[13] - Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders increased to 806,538,091.36 yuan, compared to 643,441,593.03 yuan in the previous year[14] - Basic earnings per share (EPS) improved to 0.3644 yuan from 0.2907 yuan in the prior period[14] - Total comprehensive income for the period reached 823,845,589.96 yuan, up from 661,026,867.61 yuan in the prior year[14] Asset and Liability Changes - Total assets as of the end of the reporting period were 16.02 billion yuan, an increase of 10.38% compared to the end of the previous year[2] - Accounts receivable increased by 38.82% compared to the beginning of the year, mainly due to an increase in receivables[4] - Prepaid accounts grew by 30.18% compared to the beginning of the year, primarily due to an increase in prepayments[4] - Other non-current assets surged by 725.13% compared to the beginning of the year, mainly due to an increase in prepaid project payments[4] - Short-term borrowings increased by 42.07% compared to the beginning of the year, mainly due to an increase in bank loans[4] - Accounts payable grew by 61.14% compared to the beginning of the year, primarily due to increased procurement payments resulting from higher sales[4] - Pre-received accounts increased by 70.99% compared to the beginning of the year, mainly due to an increase in pre-received merchant payments[4] - Taxes payable surged by 211.43% compared to the beginning of the year, primarily due to increased tax payments resulting from higher sales[4] - The company's monetary funds increased to 8.575 billion yuan as of September 30, 2024, compared to 7.094 billion yuan at the beginning of the year[10] - Accounts receivable rose to 31.141 million yuan from 22.433 million yuan at the beginning of the year[11] - Prepayments increased to 31.764 million yuan from 24.401 million yuan at the beginning of the year[11] - Inventory grew to 1.888 billion yuan from 1.804 billion yuan at the beginning of the year[11] - Total current assets reached 10.618 billion yuan, up from 9.131 billion yuan at the beginning of the year[11] - Fixed assets decreased slightly to 2.956 billion yuan from 2.980 billion yuan at the beginning of the year[11] - Construction in progress increased to 525.274 million yuan from 472.660 million yuan at the beginning of the year[11] - Total assets grew to 16.025 billion yuan from 14.518 billion yuan at the beginning of the year[11] - Short-term borrowings rose to 2.271 billion yuan from 1.598 billion yuan at the beginning of the year[11] - Total liabilities increased to 5,455,668,975.08 yuan, up from 4,477,928,612.29 yuan in the previous period[12] - Total equity attributable to parent company shareholders grew to 10,505,511,116.62 yuan, compared to 9,975,639,085.26 yuan in the prior period[12] Sales and Product Performance - The company achieved beer sales of 1.1819 million tons in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.75%, with high-end beer product sales growing by 14.81%[9] Expense and Income Changes - Research and development expenses increased to 151,145,033.63 yuan, up from 127,959,029.15 yuan in the previous year[13] - Sales expenses rose to 718,695,002.23 yuan, compared to 623,509,606.45 yuan in the same period last year[13] - Financial income improved to -106,402,360.63 yuan, compared to -132,680,985.30 yuan in the previous period[13] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Sales of goods and services received cash of RMB 5,592,282,778.17, an increase compared to the previous period's RMB 5,041,581,559.96[15] - Total cash inflow from operating activities was RMB 5,642,887,126.01, up from RMB 5,155,462,253.04 in the previous period[16] - Cash outflow for purchasing goods and services was RMB 2,839,467,252.34, higher than the previous period's RMB 2,678,471,171.41[16] - Net cash flow from operating activities increased to RMB 1,241,568,830.59 from RMB 1,051,227,110.96[16] - Net cash flow from investing activities was negative RMB 2,174,148,191.26, compared to negative RMB 26,396,936.18 in the previous period[16] - Net cash flow from financing activities was RMB 368,945,223.95, slightly lower than the previous period's RMB 398,183,161.77[16] - The net increase in cash and cash equivalents was negative RMB 563,536,224.44, compared to a positive RMB 1,423,013,336.55 in the previous period[17] - The ending balance of cash and cash equivalents was RMB 957,658,398.73, down from RMB 2,839,648,130.38 in the previous period[17]