珠江啤酒（002461.SZ）2024 年年报点评 量价表现亮眼，盈利显著向上 2025 年 03 月 29 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 3 月 27 日，公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年公司实现营业 总收入 / 归 母 净 利 润 / 扣 非 归 母 净 利 润 57.31/8.10/7.62 亿元，同比 +6.56%/+29.95%/+36.79%。经测算，24Q4 公司实现营收/归母净利润/扣非 归母净利润实现 8.44/0.04/-0.06 亿元，营收同比+2.11%；归母净利润同期亏 损 0.2 亿元，扭亏为盈；扣非归母净利润同期亏损 0.47 亿元，显著减亏。 ➢ 量价表现亮眼好于行业平均，非现饮占比高+渠道利润周期创造α。24 年公 司啤酒收入 55.11 亿元，同比+7%，分量价来看，销量 143.96 万吨，同比+2.62% （同期我国规上啤酒企业产量同比-0.6%），吨价 3828 元，同比+4.3%，预计 量价均好于行业平均。产品结构来看，高档/中档/大众化啤酒产品分别 39.04/12.39/3.68 亿 元 ， 同 比 +14.0%/-11.4%/+13.5% ，占比分别 7 ...

Core Insights - Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery reported a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.56% and a net profit of 810 million yuan, up 29.95% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.7 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [1] Revenue Breakdown - The beer business generated 5.511 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 7.04% increase year-on-year [1] - Revenue by channel: 5.155 billion yuan from ordinary sales, 198 million yuan from supermarkets, 88 million yuan from night venues, and 71 million yuan from e-commerce, with growth rates of 6%, 46.71%, -4.72%, and 20.51% respectively [1] - Gross margins by channel: 44.64% for ordinary sales, 58.44% for supermarkets, 36.33% for night venues, and 49.61% for e-commerce [1] Regional Performance - The South China region contributed 95.02% of total revenue, approximately 5.491 billion yuan, while other regions accounted for only 4.98%, a decrease from 6.81% in the first half of the year [1] Product Category Performance - Revenue from premium, mid-range, and mass-market beer products reached 3.904 billion yuan, 1.239 billion yuan, and 368 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of 13.97%, -11.41%, and 13.48% respectively [2] - The beer industry in China is entering a stable development phase, with significant competition but opportunities for structural upgrades in consumption [2] Industry Context - Despite a general decline in the domestic beer industry, Zhujiang Brewery's volume and price performance outpaced the industry, benefiting from strong brand recognition and the successful iteration of its premium product "97 Pure Draft" [3] - The overall beer production in China decreased by 0.6% in 2024, with large-scale enterprises producing 35.213 million kiloliters [2] - The trend towards quality consumption continues to influence the market, with consumers favoring personalized and distinctive products [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Zhujiang Beer with a target price of 11.76, compared to the last closing price of 10.30 [1]. Core Insights - Zhujiang Beer achieved a revenue of 5.731 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million, up 29.95% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 762 million, reflecting a 36.79% increase [4][5]. - The sales volume of beer in 2024 was affected by demand, with a slight decline in overall production in China. However, Zhujiang Beer managed to increase its sales volume by 2.6% to 143.96 million tons and the average price per ton rose by 4.3% to 3828 [5][6]. - The company continues to optimize its product structure, launching new products like Zhujiang P9 and Zhujiang Beer 1985, while the flagship product, 97 Pure Draft, is expected to maintain double-digit growth [5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Zhujiang Beer reported a revenue of 844 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.11%, with net profit soaring by 118.74% to 4 million [4]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 reached 46.30%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure upgrades and cost optimization [5][10]. - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 6% for 2025, 6% for 2026, and 5% for 2027, with net profit growth rates of 15%, 10%, and 9% respectively [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Zhujiang Beer has shown resilience in the South China market, with revenue from the region increasing by 7.5% to 5.49 billion, while other regions experienced a decline of 10.4% [5]. - The company has optimized its distributor network, with a net decrease of 114 distributors in Guangdong but an increase of 16 in other regions [5]. - The report highlights the ongoing structural upgrades and cost reductions as key drivers for improved profitability and market competitiveness [5][10].

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 5.73 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million yuan, up 30.0% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 760 million yuan, up 36.8% year-on-year, aligning with performance forecasts [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 840 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, and a net profit of 4 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss of 20 million yuan in Q4 2023 [1] - The company’s beer volume and price increased by 2.6% and 3.8% respectively in 2024, with Q4 showing a volume increase of 2.1% and stable pricing [1][2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 46.3%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a decrease in raw material costs and structural upgrades [3] Group 2: Product and Market Dynamics - In 2024, beer sales reached 1.44 million tons, with a price increase of 3.8%, reflecting a structural improvement in product offerings [2] - High-end products, particularly the 97 Pure Draft beer, saw a sales increase of 14.0% year-on-year, benefiting from improved market dynamics in Guangdong province [2] - Revenue from different sales channels showed varied performance, with supermarkets and e-commerce channels growing by 46.7% and 20.5% respectively, while night venues experienced a decline of 4.7% [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating, projecting earnings per share (EPS) of 0.45 yuan and 0.52 yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of net profit expected at 23% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - The target price for 2025 is set at 12.60 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 28x, reflecting confidence in continued growth and market share improvement [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.731 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 810 million RMB, up 30.0% year-on-year [1][4] - The company’s beer sales volume increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a price increase of 3.8%, indicating a strong performance in both volume and pricing [2][3] - The report highlights the structural upgrade in product offerings, particularly the high-end products like 97 Pure Draft, which benefited from improved market dynamics in Guangdong province [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 46.3%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and structural upgrades [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 2.5 percentage points to 14.1% [3] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from beer, yeast feed, packaging materials, and restaurant leasing services in 2024 was 5.551 billion, 5 million, 60 million, and 90 million RMB respectively, with beer revenue growing by 7.0% year-on-year [2] - The sales revenue from different channels showed varied performance, with supermarkets seeing a significant increase of 46.7% year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The report projects an EPS of 0.45 RMB for 2025 and 0.52 RMB for 2026, with a target price of 12.60 RMB based on a PE ratio of 28x for 2025 [4][8] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of offline consumption and the continued growth of high-end products [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 5.731 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million yuan, which is a 29.95% increase year-on-year [7] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.7 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 376 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 46% [7] - The company is expected to benefit from a decrease in raw material costs and an upgrade in product structure, leading to improved gross margins and profitability forecasts for 2025 to 2027 [7] - The company has a strong market presence in Guangdong and South China, with potential for further national expansion [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 6.066 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8% [6] - Expected net profit for 2025 is 925 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [6] - The gross margin is projected to improve to 47.3% in 2025, up from 46.3% in 2024 [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to reach 8.4% in 2025 [6] Market Performance - The company’s beer sales volume for 2024 was 143.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.62%, with premium beer sales growing by 13.96% [7] - The average price per ton of beer in 2024 was 3,828 yuan, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year [7] - The company has introduced new products to strengthen its product matrix and is focusing on both traditional and new retail channels for growth [7]

高档啤酒销量同比增长19%，结构持续升级。根据公司公告，分量价看，2024 年公司实现啤酒销量 143.96 万吨，同比增长2.62%，其中高档啤酒销量同比增长13.96%；测算啤酒吨价为3828 元/吨，同比 增长4.3%。分结构看，2024 年高档/中档/大众化啤酒分别实现营业收入39/12.4/3.7 亿，分别同比增长 13.97%/-11.41%/13.48%。2024 年，公司在产品端推出珠江P9、珠江1985 等新品，夯实产品矩阵，在渠 道端精耕传统渠道，深耕新零售渠道，实现良好的增长。展望2025 年，我们认为公司在广东市场依然 有渠道精耕下沉的空间，若终端餐饮需求回暖，那么纯生等单品依然有望延续良好的增长。 事件：公司披露2024 年报。根据公司公告，2024 年公司实现营业总收入57.31 亿，同比增长6.56%，归 母净利润8.1 亿，同比增长29.95%，扣非净利润7.6 亿，同比增长36.79%。 原材料成本下降和吨价提升推动盈利能力提升。根据公司公告，2024 年公司啤酒业务吨成本为2103 元/ 吨，同比下降2.4%，叠加吨价提升，2024 年啤酒毛利率同比提升3.77pct到45 ...

中信证券股份有限公司 关于广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司 使用部分闲置资金进行现金管理的核查意见 中信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"中信证券"、"保荐人"）作为广州珠江啤酒 股份有限公司（以下简称"珠江啤酒"、"公司"）非公开发行 A 股股票（以下简称"非 公开发行"）的保荐人，根据《证券发行上市保荐业务管理办法》、《上市公司监管指 引第 2 号—上市公司募集资金管理和使用的监管要求》、《深圳证券交易所股票上市 规则》和《深圳证券交易所上市公司规范运作指引》等有关规定，对珠江啤酒使用 部分闲置资金进行现金管理进行了核查，核查情况如下和保荐意见如下： 一、投资概况 1、投资目的：提高短期闲置资金的使用效率和收益。 2、投资额度：公司在任一时点进行现金管理的金额折合人民币合计不得超过 100 亿元（其中：募集资金不超 30 亿元，自有资金不超 70 亿元），在前述额度内， 资金可以滚动使用。本次投资授权额度的有效期为 1 年。 3、现金管理方式：投资于安全性高、风险低、保本型的商业银行现金管理类产 品（包括但不限于结构性存款、大额存单、定期存款、通知存款、协定存款等产品）， 此类产品可避免本金损失的风险，安全系数高。不得 ...

关于广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司 2024年度募集资金存放与使用情况 专项报告的鉴证报告 您可使用手机"扫一扫"或进入"注册会计师行业统一监管平台（http://w.cnof.gov.cn）" 进行 您可使用手机"扫一扫"或进入"注册会计师行业统一监管平台（http://w.cnof.gov.cn）" 进行 ANGDONG ZHONGZHIXIN CERTIFIED PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS LLI 区珠江东路11号高德置地秋广场FF 关于广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司 2024年度募集资金存放与使用情况 专项报告的鉴证报告 报告文号:中职信审专字(2025)第0362号 广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司全体股东: 我们接受委托,对后附的广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司(以下简称"珠江啤 酒") 2024 年度募集资金存放与使用情况的专项报告(以下简称"募集资金专 项报告")执行了合理保证的鉴证业务。 一、董事会的责任 珠江啤酒董事会的责任是按照中国证券监督管理委员会《上市公司监管指引 第 2 号——上市公司募集资金管理和使用的监管要求(2022年修订)》（证监会 公告(2022)15 号)、《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监 ...

中信证券股份有限公司 关于广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司 2024 年度募集资金存放与使用情况的专项核查意见 中信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"中信证券"、"保荐人"）作为广州珠江啤酒 股份有限公司（以下简称"珠江啤酒"、"公司"）非公开发行 A 股股票（以下简称 "非公开发行"）的保荐人，根据《证券发行上市保荐业务管理办法》、《上市公司监 管指引第 2 号—上市公司募集资金管理和使用的监管要求》、《深圳证券交易所股票 上市规则》和《深圳证券交易所上市公司规范运作指引》等相关规范性文件的规定， 对珠江啤酒 2024 年度募集资金的存放与使用情况进行了审慎核查，核查情况如下： 一、募集资金基本情况 经中国证券监督管理委员会"证监许可【2016】3231 号"核准，本公司向特定 对象非公开发行人民币普通股（A 股）不超过 426,502,472 股（每股面值 1 元），每 股发行价格人民币 10.11 元，实际发行人民币普通股 426,502,472 股，共计募集资金 人民币 4,311,939,991.92 元，扣除承销费、保荐费、律师费等发行费用人民币 16,152,996.87 元（含税），实际募集资金净额为人民币 ...