食品饮料行业 超配（维持） 啤酒旺季叠加消费定调积极，需求有望边际回暖 啤酒行业动态跟踪点评 | | | | | | | 分析师：黄冬祎（SAC | 执业证书编号：S0340523020001） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 | 年 | 7 | 月 | 25 | 日 | | | | | | | | | | 电话：0769-22119410 | 邮箱：huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn | 事件： 2025 年 1-6 月，中国规模以上企业累计啤酒产量 1904.4 万千升，同比下降 0.3%。 点评： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 跟 踪 点 评 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 啤酒6月产量同比下降。2025年6月，我国规模以上企业啤酒产量412.0万千升，同比下降0.2%。啤酒6 月需求存在一定压力，一方面系5月18日，新华社发布了中共中央、国务院印发的修订后的《党政机关 厉行节约 ...

7月25日，珠江啤酒的一纸公告宣布了公司最新的人事变动。 珠江啤酒公告称，公司董事会于2025年7月25日收到公司总经理黄文胜的书面辞职报告。因工作调整，黄文胜申请辞去公司总经理职务。辞去公司总经理职 务后，黄文胜仍为公司董事、董事长及党委书记。 同时，公司董事会同意聘任张涌为公司总经理，任期自议案审议通过之日至第四届董事会换届之日止。公司股东广州产业投资控股集团有限公司提名张涌为 公司董事候选人，现拟补选张涌为公司董事，任期自股东大会审议通过之日至第四届董事会换届之日止。 公开资料显示，张涌为"70后"，曾任广州市委组织部干部二处副处长，广州市公开选拔领导干部办公室主任、广州市企业经理人才评价推荐中心主任，广州 铁路投资建设集团有限公司临时党委副书记、董事，广州岭南国际企业集团有限公司党委副书记、董事，广州岭南商旅投资集团有限公司党委副书记等，现 任公司党委副书记。 如今，新总经理的接任能否为珠江啤酒全国化带来"加速度"？ （文章来源：每日经济新闻） | 项目 | 本报告期 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司 | 盈利: 57, 477. 59 万元至 62, 475. 64 ...

证券代码：002461 证券简称：珠江啤酒 公告编号：2025-020 广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司 关于公司总经理辞职暨聘任总经理、补选董事的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 张涌先生简历如下： 张涌先生，中国国籍，1970年10月出生，研究生学历，管理学硕士，经济师。 曾任广州市委组织部干部二处副处长，广州市公开选拔领导干部办公室主任、广州 市企业经理人才评价推荐中心主任，广州铁路投资建设集团有限公司临时党委副书 记、董事，广州岭南国际企业集团有限公司党委副书记、董事，广州岭南集团控股 股份有限公司监事会主席，广州岭南商旅投资集团有限公司党委副书记、董事、工 会主席等。现任公司党委副书记。 张涌先生不属于"失信被执行人"，不存在以下情形：（1）《公司法》不得 担任董事、监事、高级管理人员的情形；（2）被中国证监会采取证券市场禁入措 施；（3）被证券交易所公开认定为不适合担任上市公司董事、监事和高级管理人 员；（4）最近三年内受到中国证监会行政处罚；（5）最近三年内受到证券交易所 公开谴责或者三次以上通报批评；（6）因涉嫌犯罪被司法机关立案侦查或者 ...

证券代码：002461 证券简称：珠江啤酒 公告编号：2025-022 广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年第一次临时股东大会的通知 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏。 （1）现场会议时间：2025年8月14日16:00开始； （2）网络投票时间：通过深圳证券交易所交易系统进行网络投票的时间为：2025 年8月14日上午9:15—9:25,9:30—11:30，下午13:00－15:00；通过深圳证券交 易所互联网投票系统投票的时间为2025年8月14日上午9:15至下午15:00。 5、会议召开方式：本次股东大会采用现场表决与网络投票相结合的方式召开。 （1）现场投票：股东本人出席现场会议或通过授权委托他人出席现场会议； （2）网络投票：本次大会将通过深圳证券交易所交易系统和互联网投票系统向 公司股东提供网络形式的投票平台，股东可以在网络投票时间内通过上述系统行 使表决权。公司股东应选择现场投票、网络投票中的一种方式，如果同一表决权 出现重复投票表决的，以第一次投票表决结果为准。 6、股权登记日：2025年8月7日 7、会议出席对象 一、 ...

证券代码：002461 证券简称：珠江啤酒 公告编号：2025-021 广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司 第四届董事会第八十五次会议决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第四届董事会第八十五 次会议于 2025 年 7 月 25 日以通讯方式召开，会议由黄文胜董事长召集。召开 本次会议的通知及相关资料已于 2025 年 7 月 22 日通过电子邮件等方式送达各 位董事。本次会议应到董事 8 人（其中独立董事 3 人），实到董事 8 人。会议 由黄文胜董事长主持，符合《公司法》及公司章程的有关规定。与会董事经认 真讨论，审议通过了以下议案： 一、审议通过《关于聘任公司总经理的议案》。 根据《公司章程》及公司董事会成员空缺情况，公司股东广州产业投资 控股集团有限公司提名张涌先生为公司董事候选人，现拟补选张涌先生为公 司董事，任期自股东大会审议通过之日至第四届董事会换届之日止。本议案 已经董事会提名委员会资格审查通过。公司《关于公司总经理辞职暨聘任总 经理、补选董事的公告》详见2025年7月26日《中国证券报》、《证 ...

食品饮料行业2025年中期投资策略 白酒依然承压，大众品优选个股 西南证券研究院 食品饮料研究团队 2025年7月 核 心 观 点 1 白酒：中长期配置价值凸显：目前看，高端和次高端白酒受经济和政策影响，呈现不同程度的压力，普飞批价从25 年春节2200元左右下降至当前1850元左右，6月以来批价走弱明显；地产酒，宴席场景有所承压，批价略有下降； 次高端，商务影响较大，导致销量不及预期，静待需求复苏；重点推荐高端和部分地产酒。从中长期看配置价值凸 显：白酒自身行业属性并未发生大的变化，名酒市占率提升逻辑依然成立；消费升级短期受到影响，中长期升级趋 势未发生变化；中长期看白酒主力饮酒人群相对稳健；深度调整后，白酒龙头25年估值13-19倍，已处于历史低位。 啤酒：1）从销量基数上看，24年存在明显旺季不旺导致25年夏天存在低基数效应，尤其是全国性龙头有望充分受 益于此；进入旺季后行业整体需求有所回暖，25年4-5月国内啤酒产量同比增长2.9%。今年炎热少雨的天气因素或 对旺季销量有积极促进。2）高端化升级趋势仍确定，以8元档为代表的次高大单品仍对酒企吨价及利润有充足弹性 贡献。3）随着歪马、酒小二等酒类即时零售 ...

行业动态 1.1-6月烟酒收入同比增长5.5% 6月社会消费品零售总额42287亿元，同比增长4.8%；餐饮收入4708亿元，同比增长0.9%。其中烟酒类1-6月收入3316亿元，同比增长5.5%；6月份收入为516 亿元，同比下降0.7%。（国家统计局） 2.6月酒饮茶制造业增加值同比增长3.4% 6月，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长6.8%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）；1-6月，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.4%。其中，酒、饮料 和精制茶制造业6月增加值同比增长3.4%，1-6月增加值同比增长4.7%。（国家统计局） 3.4项行业标准正式发布 近日，由全国酿酒标准化技术委员会组织制修订的QB/T 8146-2025《发酵型米酒》、QB/T 5476.6-2025《果酒第6部分：荔枝酒》、QB/T 5476.8-2025《果酒 第8部分：石榴酒》3项行业标准，以及由全国食品工业标准化技术委员会工业发酵分技术委员会组织制修订的QB/T 4577-2025《甜酒曲》行业标准正式发 布，实施日期均为2026年2月1日。 此外，由全国酿酒标准化技术委员会归口的20252734-T-607《山葡萄酒质量 ...

Macro and Strategy - June financial data shows a significant rebound in credit, with new social financing reaching 4.20 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations of 3.71 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans at 2.24 trillion yuan, surpassing the forecast of 1.84 trillion yuan [8][9][10] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in domestic economic momentum as private sector balance sheet expansion improves [8][9] - The "seesaw effect" between government financing and corporate loans has weakened, suggesting a shift in credit dynamics as local governments approach their annual debt targets [9][10] Retail Industry - The jewelry market is projected to grow steadily, with the market size reaching 728 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.6% since 2019 [11][12] - The top five companies in the jewelry sector hold a market share of 41.4%, indicating increasing industry concentration as consumer preferences shift towards quality and design [11][12] - The retail sector is benefiting from the recent Amazon Prime Day, which generated an estimated $24.1 billion in sales, a 30% increase year-on-year, highlighting the growth potential in cross-border e-commerce [13][14] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.92% increase, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.17 percentage points [14] - The liquor market is stabilizing, with major brands focusing on brand positioning and market health, while the overall demand remains under pressure [15][16] - Recommendations include leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, which have shown resilience and potential for recovery [15][16] Construction and Building Materials - The construction materials sector is expected to improve due to a shift towards healthy competition and urban renewal initiatives, with a focus on technological innovation [17][18] - Cement prices have stabilized, with a slight decrease of 0.4% week-on-week, while demand remains steady despite seasonal fluctuations [17][18] - Recommendations include companies like Three Trees and China National Building Material, which are well-positioned to benefit from domestic demand [18] Computer Industry - The AI ASIC market is rapidly expanding, with a projected market size growth from $14.8 billion in 2024 to $83.8 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 33.5% [19][20] - The price advantage of AI ASIC chips over GPUs is significant, with average prices of $5,236 compared to $8,001 for GPUs, making them more attractive for specific applications [19][20] - Companies like Google and Amazon are accelerating their development of ASIC chips, indicating strong future demand in this sector [21] Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is experiencing stable growth in domestic sales, driven by government subsidies, while exports face challenges due to high bases and tariff impacts [22][23] - White goods are seeing a slight increase in domestic sales, with air conditioning units showing a 9.5% growth in domestic shipments [22][23] - Recommendations include leading brands such as Midea and Gree, which are expected to maintain strong performance [22][23] Pharmaceutical Industry - Merck's acquisition of Verona for $10 billion aims to enhance its portfolio with a new COPD treatment, indicating strong growth potential in respiratory therapies [27][28] - WuXi AppTec is projected to achieve a 102% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting robust operational performance [29] - The pharmaceutical sector is showing resilience, with a focus on innovative treatments and strategic acquisitions [27][28] Coal Industry - The coal market is expected to stabilize as domestic production increases and imports decrease, with a projected production of 4.85 billion tons in 2025, a 2% increase year-on-year [31][32] - Demand for coal is anticipated to improve in the second half of the year, particularly for non-electric uses such as chemical production [33] - Recommendations include leading coal companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, which are well-positioned to benefit from market dynamics [34] Electronics Industry - The electronics sector is experiencing positive momentum, with a 0.93% increase in stock performance, driven by strong demand in the optical and semiconductor segments [34] - The industry is expected to see significant catalysts in the coming months, particularly in the context of AI and cloud computing advancements [34] - Companies involved in ASIC development are likely to benefit from the ongoing trends in computing and data processing [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][73]. Core Views - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with a focus on the mid-year performance of the sector. The overall sentiment is improving due to policy expectations aimed at boosting domestic demand, leading to a recovery in the liquor sector after significant declines [2][11][13]. - The beer and beverage segments are entering a peak season, with expectations for strong mid-year performance. Companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer are projected to achieve substantial profit growth due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [14][15][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer engagement and market health for liquor companies, suggesting a shift towards internationalization and targeting younger demographics [2][11][13]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor index rose by 1.4% this week, with major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye focusing on brand strength and service enhancement. The sector is expected to recover from low valuations, although demand pressures remain significant [2][11][13]. - Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, which have demonstrated strong risk resilience [2][11][13]. Consumer Goods - The beer segment is expected to benefit from seasonal demand, with Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer forecasting a 40% to 50% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [14][15]. - The snack sector is experiencing volatility, with a recommendation for companies with strong performance certainty, such as Wei Long and Yan Jin [16]. - In the condiment sector, leading companies are expected to show resilience, with a focus on policy developments that could enhance the restaurant industry's vitality [17]. Frozen Foods and Dairy - Frozen food companies are actively developing new products to cater to both B2B and B2C markets, with a focus on convenience and smaller packaging [18]. - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a gradual recovery in demand, supported by favorable policies and improved supply dynamics [19]. Beverages - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with leading companies like Dongpeng Beverage expected to continue expanding their market presence [20].

Group 1: Industry Performance - Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer continue to maintain high growth rates significantly above industry levels in the first half of 2025 [1] - Zhujiang Beer expects a net profit of 575 million to 625 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15% to 25% [2] - Yanjing Beer anticipates a net profit between 1.061 billion and 1.137 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40% to 50% [3] Group 2: Company Updates - Moutai Group reported that both Moutai liquor and sauce-flavored liquor have completed their operational tasks for the first half of 2025 [4] - Jin Feng Wine Industry expects a net loss of 4.8 million to 7.2 million yuan for the first half of 2025, although this represents a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [6] - ST Lanzhou Huanghe anticipates a loss of 10 million to 13 million yuan, with revenue declining due to intensified market competition [7] Group 3: New Product Launches and Strategies - Mountain City Beer launched its first craft beer, "Mountain City Secret Brew," at the 2025 Chongqing International Beer Culture Festival [9] - 1919 announced a new strategy to integrate wine and dining experiences through store upgrades and partnerships with local restaurants [11] - Water Well Square announced a halt on the sales of its "Zhen Niang Eight" product to address market circulation issues [12]