%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨沪电股份（002463.SZ） [Table_Title] 沪电股份 2024 年三季报点评：单季业绩再创新 高，扩产项目布局高端 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | 报告要点 | | | | [Table_Summary] 沪电股份发布 2024 年三季报： 2024 年前三季度，受益于高速运算服务器、人工智能等新兴计 | | | | 算场景对 PCB 的结构性需求，公司实现营业收入 90.11 亿元，同比 +48.15% ；实现归母净利润 | | | | 18.48 亿元，同比 +93.94% 。单三季度来看，公司实现营业收入 35.87 亿元，同比 +54.67% 、 | | | | 环比 +26.29% ；实现归母净利润 7.08 亿元，同比 +53.66% 、环比 +13.03% 。 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, reflecting a positive outlook on its future performance [4] Core Views - The company achieved record-high revenue and net profit in 3Q24, with revenue reaching RMB 3.587 billion, a YoY increase of 54.67%, and net profit reaching RMB 708 million, a YoY increase of 53.66% [2] - The company's gross profit margin improved significantly to 34.94%, up 8.79 percentage points YoY, while the net profit margin slightly increased to 19.57% [2] - AI-related products, particularly AI servers and high-performance PCB products, are driving revenue growth, with the company making significant progress in PCIe6.0, OAM/UBB2.0, and GPU-related products [2] - The company announced a RMB 4.3 billion investment in a high-end HDI production expansion project to meet the growing demand for AI-related PCB products, with the project expected to contribute RMB 4.7 billion in net profit upon completion [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 2.584 billion, RMB 3.387 billion, and RMB 4.046 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 31x, 24x, and 20x [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be RMB 12.285 billion, RMB 15.144 billion, and RMB 17.377 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 37.44%, 23.27%, and 14.75% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow at a CAGR of 31.07% from 2024E to 2026E, reaching RMB 4.046 billion by 2026E [5] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve steadily, reaching 39.15% by 2026E, while the net profit margin is expected to rise to 23.29% [5] - ROE is projected to increase from 22.35% in 2024E to 26.59% in 2026E, reflecting strong profitability and efficient capital utilization [5] AI and High-End Product Strategy - The company is focusing on AI infrastructure, with significant R&D investments of RMB 577 million in the first three quarters of 2024, a YoY increase of 51.57% [2] - The company has made breakthroughs in high-speed network equipment, including 800G switches and 1.6T switch products, positioning itself to benefit from the growing demand for AI-related hardware [2] - The high-end HDI expansion project is expected to enhance the company's capacity to meet the demand for high-performance PCB products in AI servers and data centers [2] Valuation and Projections - The company's EPS is projected to grow from RMB 1.35 in 2024E to RMB 2.11 in 2026E, with a corresponding decline in P/E ratios from 31x to 20x [5] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is expected to decrease from 23.41x in 2024E to 14.99x in 2026E, indicating improving valuation metrics [5] - The company's dividend yield is forecasted to increase from 2.03% in 2024E to 3.18% in 2026E, reflecting strong cash flow generation and shareholder returns [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][4] - The previous rating was also "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company benefits from the ongoing AI boom and has accelerated its layout in high-end production capacity [3][4] - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 9.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48.15%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.85 billion, up 93.94% year-on-year [4] - The company is expanding its high-end production capacity to meet the long-term demand for high-end printed circuit boards (PCBs) in emerging computing scenarios [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 3.59 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54.67% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.29% [4] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 35.86%, an increase of 5.28 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company plans to invest approximately RMB 4.3 billion in a new high-end PCB production project, which is expected to generate significant additional revenue and profit [4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 12.07 billion, RMB 14.67 billion, and RMB 17.57 billion, respectively [4][9] - Net profit projections for the same years are RMB 2.60 billion, RMB 3.35 billion, and RMB 3.99 billion, respectively [4][9] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory with a PE ratio of 32.6 for 2024, decreasing to 21.2 by 2026 [4][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company reported record high performance in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 9.011 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.848 billion yuan, up 93.94% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to invest 4.3 billion yuan to expand production capacity for high-end printed circuit boards to meet the growing demand for AI chips [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the strong demand for AI-related products, with projected revenues of 12.73 billion yuan, 15.82 billion yuan, and 18.64 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 42%, 24%, and 18% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.587 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.67%, and a net profit of 708 million yuan, up 53.66% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 34.94%, an increase of 2.82 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 19.57%, up 0.07 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company forecasts a net profit of 2.679 billion yuan for 2024, representing a growth rate of 77.18% compared to 2023 [5]. Capacity Expansion Plans - The company plans to use its own or raised funds of 4.3 billion yuan for the expansion of AI chip supporting high-end printed circuit board projects, with an annual production capacity of approximately 290,000 square meters [1]. - The first phase of the project will require an investment of about 2.68 billion yuan, with an expected annual output of 180,000 square meters, projected to be completed before 2028 [1]. - The second phase will involve an investment of 1.62 billion yuan, with an expected annual output of 110,000 square meters, projected to be completed before 2032 [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the PCB sector, benefiting from strong partnerships with top firms in the AI industry, which has led to significant revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The company has reported a revenue of 9.011 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.15%, and a net profit of 1.848 billion yuan, up 93.94% year-on-year, exceeding the profit guidance [2] - The company is making substantial investments in new AI-related PCB projects, which will solidify its long-term growth foundation [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's gross margin was 35.86%, and net margin was 20.31%, both showing year-on-year improvements of 4.69 percentage points and 3.65 percentage points respectively [2] - The company’s inventory reached 2.691 billion yuan, up 53.83% year-on-year, and construction in progress was 1.260 billion yuan, up 121.11% year-on-year, due to expansion projects [2] - Revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 12.010 billion yuan, 15.306 billion yuan, and 16.995 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.4%, 27.4%, and 11% [3][4] - The expected net profit for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is 2.469 billion yuan, 3.464 billion yuan, and 3.993 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 63.2%, 40.3%, and 15.3% [3][4] Investment Strategy - The company is adjusting its investment strategy to focus on high-end printed circuit boards for AI chips, with a total planned investment of 4.3 billion yuan, divided into two phases [2] - The first phase will involve an investment of approximately 2.68 billion yuan, while the second phase will require about 1.62 billion yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 9.011 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.15%, and a net profit of 1.848 billion yuan, up 93.94% year-on-year [1]. - The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 3.587 billion yuan, a 54.67% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 708 million yuan, growing 53.66% year-on-year [1]. - The surge in revenue is primarily driven by strong orders related to AI, with AI server and HPC-related PCB products increasing their contribution to the company's enterprise communication market revenue from approximately 21.13% in 2023 to about 31.48% [2]. - The company is investing approximately 4.3 billion yuan to expand its production capacity for high-end printed circuit boards to meet AI demand, which is expected to generate an additional annual revenue of about 4.8 billion yuan upon completion [5]. Financial Performance - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 35.86%, an increase of 5.29 percentage points year-on-year, although the third quarter saw a slight decline to 34.94% due to exchange rate fluctuations [3]. - The net profit margin for the third quarter was 19.57%, a slight increase of 0.07 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company forecasts net profits of 2.683 billion yuan, 3.498 billion yuan, and 4.248 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 32, 24, and 20 [6]. Industry Trends - The report highlights that while "killer" applications for AI are not yet widespread, the long-term outlook is positive as AI applications in fields such as image processing, voice recognition, and machine vision are expected to drive significant growth in data and computing needs over the next five years [4]. - The demand for high-performance PCB solutions is anticipated to be a major growth driver in the electronic market due to the increasing computational and storage requirements of emerging AI applications [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has a strong order backlog, leading to significant year-on-year growth in performance. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 9.01 billion yuan, up 48.15% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.85 billion yuan, up 93.94% year-on-year [2][3] - The company plans to expand its high-end production capacity to enhance long-term competitiveness, with an investment of approximately 4.3 billion yuan for a project aimed at increasing production capacity for high-end printed circuit boards (PCBs) [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.587 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.67% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.29%. The net profit for the same quarter was 708 million yuan, up 53.66% year-on-year and 13.03% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 5.29 percentage points to 35.86%, while the net margin rose by 4.89 percentage points to 20.31% [3] Future Projections - The company forecasts EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.32 yuan, 1.79 yuan, and 2.12 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 33.7, 24.7, and 20.9 based on the closing price on October 25, 2024 [5] - The revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 12.011 billion yuan, 14.891 billion yuan, and 17.186 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 34.4%, 24.0%, and 15.4% [4][8] Investment Plans - The company has announced a plan to invest approximately 4.3 billion yuan in expanding high-end PCB production capacity, with a total construction period of 8 years. The project will be implemented in two phases, with the first phase expected to add 180,000 square meters of production capacity and generate an estimated additional annual revenue of 3 billion yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The company has shown significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, driven by strong orders and the expansion of its AI-related product offerings [3] - The company is expanding its high-density PCB production capacity to support the increasing demand for AI products, with a total investment of approximately 43 billion yuan planned over eight years [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 9.011 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.15%, and a net profit of 1.848 billion yuan, up 93.94% year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.587 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.67% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.29% [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 34.94%, an increase of 2.82 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 19.73% [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth from 12.034 billion yuan in 2024 to 16.220 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 2.515 billion yuan to 3.855 billion yuan [4][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.31 yuan in 2024 to 2.01 yuan in 2026, with the current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio expected to decrease from 33.7 to 22.0 over the same period [4][6] Expansion Projects - The company plans to expand its high-density PCB manufacturing capacity, with the first phase expected to produce approximately 180,000 square meters annually, generating an estimated additional annual revenue of 3 billion yuan and a net profit of 470 million yuan [2][3] - The second phase aims for an annual production of 110,000 square meters, with projected additional annual revenue of 1.8 billion yuan and a net profit of 285 million yuan [2][3]

沪电股份（002463.SZ） 元件 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 25 日 沪电股份：Q3 业绩再创新高，顺 AI 趋势扩高端产能 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------ ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 沪电股份（002463）2024 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 业绩符合预期，AI 推动业绩再创新高 目标价：56.1 元 当前价：42.33 元 事项： 公司发布 2024 年三季报，Q3 营收 35.87 亿（YoY+54.67%，QoQ+26.29%）， 归母净利润 7.08 亿（YoY+53.66%，QoQ+13.03%），扣非归母净利润 6.95 亿 （YoY+60.28%，QoQ+13%），同时公告拟投资 43 亿建设人工智能芯片配套高 端印制电路板项目。 评论： 业绩符合预期，营收利润再创历史新高。Q3 收入端实现环比强劲增长，主要 系行业景气推动产能稼动率进一步提升，下游 800G 交换机及 AI 服务器等高 端产品需求强劲，推动公司产品结构持续优化。从利润拆解看，受汇率波动影 响，Q3 汇兑损失粗略测算约 7600 万（vsQ2 收益 3700 万），Q3 剔除汇兑看净 利率约 21.86%（vsQ2 约 20.74%），环比提升约 1.12pct，实际盈利能力仍在不 断突破新高。 800G 交换机加速渗透，公司业绩有望加速上行。随着大模型参数量快速增长， 大型 AI ...