预调酒和威士忌渠道更新 20251124 摘要 百润股份 2025 年 10 月至 11 月低度酒累计销售额达 2.3 亿元，完成全 年目标的 30%，其中"强爽"系列占比最高，但四季度开始下滑；"微 醺"系列保持增长，而"轻享"系列动销不佳，引发对未来大规模推广 的担忧。 11 月各品类环比 10 月均有增长，但"强爽"略有下滑。2025 年 11 月 果冻酒发货金额约为 1,000 多万元。威士忌业务受促销活动影响，11 月较 10 月略有下降，但线上销售增长抵消部分影响，预计全年销售额 达 2.4 至 2.5 亿元。 公司计划通过小型订货会、临时条码入驻商超、推进莱州甄选系列铺货 （预计带来 1 亿元分销额）、尾牙品鉴会等措施，以及人力调整，推动 威士忌业务发展。万家终端计划达成率预计 50%左右，正解决商超入驻 延迟问题。 百利得系列小瓶装产品在盒马、零食店等渠道入驻受阻，春节后将重新 推进。大瓶装产品有机会以临时条码形式入驻卖场，春节期间销售表现 将决定是否成为永久性商品。 Q&A 请介绍一下百润公司在 2025 年 10 月和 11 月的经营情况，尤其是玉条酒和 威士忌的表现。 2025 年 10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [4][14]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 2.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.89%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 549 million yuan, down 4.35% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 781 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, and a net profit of 160 million yuan, down 6.76% year-on-year [2]. - The growth in the liquor business has turned positive, driven by new product contributions, particularly from RTD (Ready-to-Drink) and whiskey segments [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 70.19%, stable compared to the previous year, while the net profit margin was 20.52%, down 2.15% year-on-year due to increased expenses [3]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 26.70%, up 3.24 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to initial promotional costs for new RTD and whiskey products [3]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, now expecting net profits of 739 million yuan and 883 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.70 yuan and 0.84 yuan per share [4][6]. Product and Market Development - The company launched new RTD products in June and July 2025, which have effectively compensated for declines in older products, indicating potential for continued growth [4]. - The whiskey business is still in the early stages of market penetration and consumer education, with ongoing investments in e-commerce and promotional activities yielding positive results [4]. - The company has received recognition in international competitions, enhancing its brand visibility and market positioning [4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to strengthen its growth trend in Q4 2025, supported by a low base and strong momentum from new products [4]. - Long-term growth potential remains strong due to the diverse RTD product line and robust R&D capabilities, while the whiskey segment is viewed as a foundational element for sustainable operations [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's revenue margins are improving, and the future of its whiskey business looks promising. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 734 million, 867 million, and 1.041 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2%, 18.14%, and 20.18% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 39, 33, and 27 times for the same years [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.89%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 549 million yuan, down 4.35% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 781 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, marking the first quarter of positive year-on-year revenue growth since Q1 2024 [7] - The gross margin for Q3 was 70.19%, with a slight increase compared to the same period last year. However, the sales expense ratio increased by 3.24 percentage points to 26.7%, attributed to marketing investments for new products and the whiskey business [7] - The company has a clear dual-brand strategy for its whiskey business, with a cumulative barrel count of 500,000, establishing a strong production capacity barrier. The whiskey business is still in the early stages of market cultivation and expansion [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected operating revenue for 2025 is 3.156 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.53%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 734 million yuan, with a growth rate of 2% [6] - The company’s P/E ratios for the forecasted years are 39.00 for 2025, 33.01 for 2026, and 27.47 for 2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [7] Core Views - The company has returned to revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a revenue of 780 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3% [1] - Despite the revenue growth, profit has been pressured due to increased investment in marketing and product launches, particularly in the new product lines and whiskey business [2][3] - The pre-mixed cocktail business is stabilizing, with new product contributions expected to enhance revenue [3] - The whiskey business is progressing steadily, with a focus on expanding distribution channels and partnerships [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to weak consumer demand in the pre-mixed cocktail and whiskey segments, with projected net profits of 694 million, 768 million, and 873 million yuan respectively [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.27 billion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 550 million yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 70.28%, slightly up from the previous year, while the net profit margin decreased to 24.21% [2] Business Development - The company is enhancing its product matrix with new offerings in the pre-mixed cocktail segment, including the Jelly Wine series launched in June [3] - The whiskey business is being supported by a dedicated marketing team and has seen an increase in the number of distribution partners [4] Profitability and Valuation - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be 0.66, 0.73, and 0.83 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 41x, 37x, and 33x [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that Bairun Co., Ltd. is experiencing a decline in revenue and net profit for Q2 2025, primarily due to the adjustment period of its pre-mixed cocktails, although whisky contributions remain positive [1] Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Bairun's operating revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses are projected to be 752 million, 208 million, and 178 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 8.98%, 10.85%, and 22.61% [1] Product Development - The company is continuously improving its "358" product matrix, having launched jelly wine in June with positive sales feedback, and is set to introduce a light enjoyment series of 12-degree pre-mixed cocktails in August [1] Future Outlook - Despite slight pressure on terminal demand, the profit forecast has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits for 2025 and 2026 revised to 770 million and 870 million yuan respectively, and a new forecast for 2027 set at 990 million yuan [1] - The rating for Bairun Co., Ltd. remains "Buy" [1]

Summary of Baijiu Co. Conference Call Industry Overview - The pre-mixed alcoholic beverage market in China is expected to experience rapid expansion, driven by changes in consumer demographics, channel development, and consumption scenarios, similar to the Japanese market [2][5][6] - The current scale of the pre-mixed beverage market in China is approximately 70 billion yuan in production and 150 billion yuan in retail [6] - The whisky market in China has seen significant growth, with retail sales increasing from about 1 billion yuan in 2013 to an estimated 55-60 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of around 20% [17] Company Insights - Baijiu Co. is positioned as a leading player in the pre-mixed beverage market, holding over 60% market share [2][7] - The company has introduced innovative products such as jelly wine and the light enjoyment series, contributing to revenue growth [2][14] - Baijiu Co. has established a clear product matrix with three core offerings: 3-degree light, 5-degree refreshing, and 8-degree strong beverages [10] Key Points from the Conference Call - **Operational Turnaround**: The company anticipates a turning point in operations in Q3, with expected revenue growth driven by stable performance of the 358 series and new product contributions [2][4] - **Whisky Business Growth**: Baijiu Co. has become the largest whisky producer in China, with projected whisky revenue reaching 300 million yuan for the year [3][22] - **Marketing Strategy**: The company has refined its marketing approach since 2016, focusing on a combination of online and offline strategies to enhance cost efficiency and drive sales growth [9] - **Product Development**: The company has successfully launched new products targeting specific consumer segments, such as the micro-drunk series aimed at young women and the refreshing series for home dining [11][12] Competitive Landscape - The pre-mixed beverage market is expected to see a concentration of leading brands while smaller brands become more fragmented [8] - Baijiu Co.'s long-standing presence and continuous innovation provide it with a competitive edge in the market [7] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the growth potential of both its pre-mixed beverage and whisky segments, with expectations of improved revenue and profit margins in the coming quarters [15][22] - The introduction of new products is expected to complement existing offerings and fill gaps in the market, particularly in the mid-alcohol segment [14][15] Additional Insights - The whisky segment is primarily targeted at young male consumers aged 18-29, with a focus on home consumption and small gatherings [17] - Baijiu Co. has established a dual-brand strategy with Bailede and Laizhou, aiming to enhance market penetration and brand recognition [18][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The pre-mixed cocktail business remains under pressure, while the whiskey segment is expected to provide new growth momentum [4][9] - The company has launched new products in the pre-mixed cocktail category and is focusing on expanding its whiskey offerings [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 390 million yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year [4] - The sales volume of alcoholic products in the first half of 2025 was 15.03 million boxes, a decline of 12.68% year-on-year, attributed to weak demand for pre-mixed cocktails [5] Product and Channel Analysis - The company’s main business revenue from alcoholic products was 1.297 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 9.35% year-on-year [5] - The digital retail channel showed resilience, generating revenue of 155 million yuan, a slight decline of 0.57% year-on-year, while offline channels saw a revenue drop of 9.63% [5] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 70.33%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.26 percentage points [6] - The company reduced its sales expense ratio to 20.21% in the first half of 2025, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to optimized expense allocation [6] Future Outlook - The company is enhancing its product matrix for pre-mixed cocktails and has introduced new flavors to stabilize category growth [7] - The whiskey business is expected to drive revenue growth, with the company having launched new whiskey products and expanding its distribution channels [8][9] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 767 million, 909 million, and 1.055 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 5% for 2025 [9] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 38x for 2025, 32x for 2026, and 28x for 2027 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report on Bairun Co., Ltd. indicates a continued adjustment in the ready-to-drink (RTD) liquor segment, while there are expectations for growth in the whisky category, leading to a "buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Bairun's revenue was 1.489 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.56%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 389 million yuan, down 3.32% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 752 million yuan, a decline of 8.98% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 208 million yuan, down 10.85% year-on-year [2]. - The RTD liquor segment saw revenue of 1.297 billion yuan, down 9.35% year-on-year, while the food flavoring segment generated 169 million yuan, down 3.91% year-on-year [2]. Product and Channel Analysis - The RTD liquor segment continues to face challenges, but new products like "Mikushen" are expected to perform well, while whisky products are gradually contributing to revenue growth [2][4]. - Revenue from offline channels was 1.311 billion yuan, down 9.63% year-on-year, while digital retail channels generated 155 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.57% [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The net profit margin after deducting non-recurring items in Q2 2025 decreased by 4.18 percentage points to 23.71%, primarily due to a decline in gross margin and an increase in expense ratios [3]. - The gross margin fell by 0.79 percentage points to 71.00%, influenced by reduced economies of scale and changes in product mix [3]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on inventory reduction in the RTD liquor segment and expects new product launches to improve sales performance [4]. - The whisky segment is anticipated to have significant growth potential, with ongoing marketing investments needed to reach a sales turning point [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been updated to 786 million yuan, 902 million yuan, and 1.048 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 37, 33, and 28 times [4].