更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 食饮 产业专家一线跟踪 20260104 摘要 Q&A 百润公司在 2025 年 12 月份的整体销售业绩如何? 2025年 12月份,百润公司进行了大规模促销活动,并对经销商采取了压货措施。 整体上,公司完成率约为90%,相较于去年同期有小个位数的增长。尽管 10 月 百润股份四季度鸡尾酒业务受益于轻享和微醺果冻酒新品驱动,合计占比 ● 达 15%,但强爽系列略有下滑。威士忌业务在华南地区人事调整后业绩显 著提升,全年销售额达 2.5 亿元,并计划通过 020 活动和渠道拓展实现 2026年 4 亿元目标。 百润股份预计 2026年清享系列销售额增长 150%至 2.5 亿元,果冻酒系列 . 增长 70%-80%至 2 亿元,强爽系列维持 13 亿元,微醺系列维持 10 亿元。 同时,将重启与 M 品牌合作,并在湖南等地推广夜间售卖低度酒模式,预 计整体业绩增长 15%以上。 茅台调整产品结构,减少辅助性产品,增加飞天和精品等大单品供应,飞 . 天系列总量保持稳定,通过减少其他规格补充 500毫升飞天茅台。同时, 计划通过竞品和 15年系列补充减少的 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Baijiu and Whisky Industry Company Overview - **Company**: 百润股份 (Bairun Co., Ltd.) - **Industry**: Low-alcohol beverages, specifically focusing on pre-mixed cocktails and whisky Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - In October and November 2025, the cumulative sales of low-alcohol beverages reached **230 million yuan**, accounting for approximately **30%** of the annual target [1][2][13] - The "强爽" (Qiangshuang) series contributed about **45%** of sales, while "微醺" (Weixun) and "果冻酒" (Guodongjiu) series accounted for nearly **30%** [2] - November saw a slight decline in "强爽" series sales, while other categories experienced growth [4] Whisky Business - Whisky sales in November 2025 were slightly down compared to October due to the waning effects of promotional activities, but online sales growth offset some of the decline [6] - The expected annual sales for whisky are projected to be between **240 million to 250 million yuan** [6] - The company plans to implement various strategies to boost whisky sales, including small order meetings and temporary barcode entries in supermarkets, aiming for a distribution revenue of **100 million yuan** [7] Market Trends - The "微醺" series continues to show double-digit growth, while the "轻享" series has underperformed, raising concerns about future large-scale promotions [3][19] - The overall low-alcohol beverage market is developing, despite challenges, with expectations for better performance through optimized strategies [12] Future Projections - The company aims for a **700 million yuan** pre-tax sales target in Q4 2025, with a significant gap remaining to meet this goal [13] - For 2026, the whisky sales target is set to double to over **500 million yuan**, despite the challenges faced in 2025 [16] Cost Management - In Q4 2025, the company plans to reduce marketing expenses by approximately **1.5 to 2 percentage points** due to personnel optimization and reduced advertising costs [21] Regional Insights - The Guangdong and Fujian markets currently contribute nearly half of the whisky sales, but this share is expected to decrease as the company expands nationally [25] Product Development - The company is exploring changes in the SKU for VC products in 2026 and has begun exporting whisky to regions like the UK and Southeast Asia [10] - The "百利得" (Bailide) series of small bottle products faced challenges in market entry but will be re-promoted after the Spring Festival [8][19] Consumer Feedback - The small bottle whisky is selling well, and the 700 ml "莱州甄选" (Laizhou Selection) series is gaining traction among distributors [23][24] Additional Important Information - The overall cocktail sales for 2025 are expected to be around **2.8 billion yuan**, reflecting a **4-5%** decline from the previous year [22] - The company is facing challenges with the "轻享" series due to high pricing and insufficient volume, which may lead to adjustments in product strategy [18]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, but showed signs of recovery in Q3 with positive revenue growth driven by new product launches and effective marketing strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 549 million yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 781 million yuan, an increase of 3.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 160 million yuan, a decrease of 6.8% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 70.2%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Product and Market Development - The company’s alcoholic beverage segment generated revenue of 681 million yuan in Q3 2025, up 1.5% year-on-year, attributed to the market performance of new products like jelly wine and flavored spirits [1]. - The company has been actively engaging in brand marketing through partnerships with popular mobile games, enhancing brand exposure among younger consumers [2]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the continued contribution of new products as the weather cools, anticipating a peak season for its "micro-drunk" product line [1]. - The company is focusing on inventory management and channel optimization, with expectations for improved sales performance in Q4 2025 due to seasonal factors and new product introductions [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.96 billion yuan and 3.20 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with net profits expected to be 649 million yuan and 711 million yuan [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [7] Core Views - The company has returned to revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a revenue of 780 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3% [1] - Despite the revenue growth, profit has been pressured due to increased investment in marketing and product launches, particularly in the new product lines and whiskey business [2][3] - The pre-mixed cocktail business is stabilizing, with new product contributions expected to enhance revenue [3] - The whiskey business is progressing steadily, with a focus on expanding distribution channels and partnerships [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to weak consumer demand in the pre-mixed cocktail and whiskey segments, with projected net profits of 694 million, 768 million, and 873 million yuan respectively [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.27 billion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 550 million yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 70.28%, slightly up from the previous year, while the net profit margin decreased to 24.21% [2] Business Development - The company is enhancing its product matrix with new offerings in the pre-mixed cocktail segment, including the Jelly Wine series launched in June [3] - The whiskey business is being supported by a dedicated marketing team and has seen an increase in the number of distribution partners [4] Profitability and Valuation - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be 0.66, 0.73, and 0.83 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 41x, 37x, and 33x [5]

Summary of Baijiu Co. Conference Call Company Overview - Baijiu Co. is the absolute leader in China's pre-mixed liquor market with a market share of 72%, significantly surpassing competitors, forming an oligopoly structure [2][4][9] - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix covering price ranges from 5 to 15 RMB and alcohol content from 3% to 12% [2][9] Industry Insights - The penetration rate and average price of China's pre-mixed liquor market are lower than the global average, indicating substantial growth potential [2][6][7] - The current market size of China's pre-mixed liquor is approximately 20 billion USD, while the global market is around 510 billion USD [6][7] - China's pre-mixed liquor consumption accounts for only 2% of beer consumption, compared to 7% globally, suggesting significant room for growth [6][7] Market Dynamics - The pre-mixed liquor market in China is characterized by a concentrated oligopoly, with the top three companies holding over 90% market share [5] - Offline sales account for about 90% of Baijiu Co.'s revenue, with major sales channels including hypermarkets, supermarkets, and e-commerce platforms [5][9] Growth Projections - The pre-mixed liquor market is expected to see a volume growth of 4.4% and a sales revenue growth of 6.6% in 2024 [2][4] - Baijiu Co. is well-positioned for stable growth due to its established market presence and ongoing product innovations [3][16] Whisky Business Development - Baijiu Co. is actively expanding its whisky business, having established four production bases and aiming for a coordinated scale of 1 million barrels [2][12][13] - The Chinese whisky market is in its infancy but shows great potential, particularly among consumers aged 18 to 30 who prefer high-priced products [10][11] Recent Product Launches - In March 2023, Baijiu Co. launched the Bailede blended whisky targeting the mid-low end market, followed by the high-end single malt whisky brand Laizhou in June 2023 [14] - The market response to the Laizhou brand, priced between 239 to 499 RMB, has been positive [14] Brand Building Efforts - The company is enhancing brand recognition by participating in international awards, which has yielded some success [15] Conclusion - Baijiu Co. is positioned for continued growth in both the pre-mixed liquor and whisky markets, supported by a strong product matrix, effective sales channels, and strategic brand initiatives [2][16]

Summary of Baijiu Co. Conference Call Industry Overview - The pre-mixed alcoholic beverage market in China is expected to experience rapid expansion, driven by changes in consumer demographics, channel development, and consumption scenarios, similar to the Japanese market [2][5][6] - The current scale of the pre-mixed beverage market in China is approximately 70 billion yuan in production and 150 billion yuan in retail [6] - The whisky market in China has seen significant growth, with retail sales increasing from about 1 billion yuan in 2013 to an estimated 55-60 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of around 20% [17] Company Insights - Baijiu Co. is positioned as a leading player in the pre-mixed beverage market, holding over 60% market share [2][7] - The company has introduced innovative products such as jelly wine and the light enjoyment series, contributing to revenue growth [2][14] - Baijiu Co. has established a clear product matrix with three core offerings: 3-degree light, 5-degree refreshing, and 8-degree strong beverages [10] Key Points from the Conference Call - **Operational Turnaround**: The company anticipates a turning point in operations in Q3, with expected revenue growth driven by stable performance of the 358 series and new product contributions [2][4] - **Whisky Business Growth**: Baijiu Co. has become the largest whisky producer in China, with projected whisky revenue reaching 300 million yuan for the year [3][22] - **Marketing Strategy**: The company has refined its marketing approach since 2016, focusing on a combination of online and offline strategies to enhance cost efficiency and drive sales growth [9] - **Product Development**: The company has successfully launched new products targeting specific consumer segments, such as the micro-drunk series aimed at young women and the refreshing series for home dining [11][12] Competitive Landscape - The pre-mixed beverage market is expected to see a concentration of leading brands while smaller brands become more fragmented [8] - Baijiu Co.'s long-standing presence and continuous innovation provide it with a competitive edge in the market [7] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the growth potential of both its pre-mixed beverage and whisky segments, with expectations of improved revenue and profit margins in the coming quarters [15][22] - The introduction of new products is expected to complement existing offerings and fill gaps in the market, particularly in the mid-alcohol segment [14][15] Additional Insights - The whisky segment is primarily targeted at young male consumers aged 18-29, with a focus on home consumption and small gatherings [17] - Baijiu Co. has established a dual-brand strategy with Bailede and Laizhou, aiming to enhance market penetration and brand recognition [18][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The pre-mixed cocktail business remains under pressure, while the whiskey segment is expected to provide new growth momentum [4][9] - The company has launched new products in the pre-mixed cocktail category and is focusing on expanding its whiskey offerings [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 390 million yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year [4] - The sales volume of alcoholic products in the first half of 2025 was 15.03 million boxes, a decline of 12.68% year-on-year, attributed to weak demand for pre-mixed cocktails [5] Product and Channel Analysis - The company’s main business revenue from alcoholic products was 1.297 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 9.35% year-on-year [5] - The digital retail channel showed resilience, generating revenue of 155 million yuan, a slight decline of 0.57% year-on-year, while offline channels saw a revenue drop of 9.63% [5] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 70.33%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.26 percentage points [6] - The company reduced its sales expense ratio to 20.21% in the first half of 2025, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to optimized expense allocation [6] Future Outlook - The company is enhancing its product matrix for pre-mixed cocktails and has introduced new flavors to stabilize category growth [7] - The whiskey business is expected to drive revenue growth, with the company having launched new whiskey products and expanding its distribution channels [8][9] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 767 million, 909 million, and 1.055 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 5% for 2025 [9] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 38x for 2025, 32x for 2026, and 28x for 2027 [9]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.489 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.56% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 389 million yuan, down 3.32% year-on-year [1] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 491 million yuan, an increase of 67.06% year-on-year [1] Business Performance - The company actively conducted various business activities, ensuring stable development of existing businesses and accelerating the cultivation of new ones [1] - The liquor and flavoring businesses operated steadily, maintaining high gross and net profit margins [1] - The ready-to-drink cocktail segment saw the introduction of new products, including a limited edition flavor and a jelly wine, which received positive consumer feedback [1] Whiskey Business Development - The company successfully launched multiple whiskey products, establishing a product matrix for Laizhou whiskey [2] - A professional marketing team was formed to explore high-quality partnerships and enhance brand awareness through experiential marketing [2] - The whiskey distillery upgrade project is progressing as planned, with a steady increase in barrel aging quantity [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of Generation Z as a significant force in the home furnishing market, redefining consumption trends with a focus on aesthetics, cost-effectiveness, and emotional value [1][6][16] Group 1: Consumer Behavior Trends - Generation Z's home furnishing choices are increasingly centered around lifestyle expression rather than mere functionality, with a strong emphasis on high aesthetics, affordability, and emotional connection to products [1][6] - Popular content in the home furnishing sector during the summer revolves around lifestyle themes, with high engagement from users aged 17 to 30, particularly males [2][6] - The demand for home products is evolving, with a notable interest in soft furnishings, particularly bedding items like pillows and comforters, which are ranked as the top categories [6][7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Urban consumption patterns show a clear gradient, with first-tier cities exhibiting stronger purchasing power and intent, while new first-tier and second-tier cities are rapidly rising in demand [5] - The article identifies two primary consumer segments for summer marketing: young professionals seeking to upgrade rental spaces and students looking to enhance dormitory living conditions [11][15] Group 3: Product Preferences - Generation Z's preferences are shifting towards products that offer both aesthetic appeal and functional benefits, with a growing interest in materials and features that enhance comfort and health [6][9] - The top ten product categories favored by Generation Z include pillows, comforters, desks, ergonomic chairs, and smart locks, indicating a trend towards multifunctional and health-oriented products [7][9] Group 4: Marketing Strategies - Effective marketing strategies should focus on scenario-based approaches, targeting specific needs such as cooling bedding for summer, space-saving furniture for small apartments, and ergonomic products for gaming setups [10][11][15] - Brands are encouraged to leverage social media and video content to engage with target demographics, particularly through humor and lifestyle-oriented themes [13][17] Group 5: Emerging Needs - The article notes a rising demand for lightweight, adaptable home solutions due to the transient living situations of many Generation Z consumers, who prefer easy-to-move and versatile furniture [16][17] - Additional emerging needs include emotional wellness through home environments, gaming setups, and pet-friendly products, reflecting a broader trend towards personalized living spaces [16][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The company is expected to continue developing its pre-mixed liquor business with a focus on the 358 product matrix, aiming for positive growth in the upcoming year. The whisky business is anticipated to gain momentum with new product launches and successful channel expansion [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 35 billion and 40 billion RMB respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 15% and 14%. The net profit for 2025 is projected at 8.1 billion RMB, reflecting a 12% increase [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, total revenue is expected to be 30.48 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.61% year-on-year, while net profit is projected at 7.19 billion RMB, down 11.15% year-on-year [8][3] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 7.37 billion RMB, a decline of 8.11% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 7.03% to 1.81 billion RMB [8][3] - The gross margin improved by 2.97 percentage points to 69.7% in 2024, while the net profit margin decreased by 1.21 percentage points to 23.6% [8][3] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company aims for total revenue of 34 billion RMB in 2025 and 40 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 8.1 billion RMB and 9.7 billion RMB [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.77 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.24 [1][3] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 26.33 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 27.63 billion RMB [6] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.89 and a total asset-liability ratio of 41.18% [7][6]