证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：关注健康化消费趋势、产品创新与渠道迭代 分析师 李梓语 执业证书编号：S0680524120001 邮箱：liziyu1@gszq.com 分析师 陈熠 执业证书编号：S0680523080003 邮箱：chenyi5@gszq.com 分析师 王玲瑶 执业证书编号：S0680524060005 邮箱：wanglingyao@gszq.com 相关研究 1、《食品饮料：周观点：啤酒饮料正当旺季，持续关注 渠道变化》 2025-06-29 2、《拆解 IFBH 的椰子水王国：——饮料行业系列报告 （二）》 2025-06-24 3、《食品饮料：保健品 618 点评：健康消费风起，细 分赛道亮眼》 2025-06-24 投资建议：1、白酒：多家高管调整，产业持续迭代更新，期待板块筑 底企稳，建议关注"优势龙头、红利延续、强势复苏"三条主线：1） 优势龙头，头部酒企份额持续提升：贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古 井贡酒；2）红利延续，高确定性区域酒：今世缘（江苏格局红利）、 迎驾贡酒（洞藏大单品红利）等；3）受益 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025 年 07 月 04 日 晨会集萃 重点推荐 《固收|信用专题》 1、各省份清欠如何？根据各省的预算调整方案或预算执行报告，目前已 有广西、湖南、云南、陕西四个省份公布了关于清欠企业账款的具体情况。 其中湖南、云南明确用于解决拖欠企业账款的金额分别为 200、356 亿元， 而广西是 365 亿元的专项债限额中部分用于解决拖欠企业账款，陕西也 是 501 亿元专项债中部分用于解决拖欠企业账款，且台账内拖欠企业账 款实现"应清尽清"。2、各区县清欠如何？从各区县公布的关于清欠企业 账款的相关表述来看，有以下几种类型：（1）多数涉及清欠企业账款的表 述说明了清欠企业账款的具体规模：偿还规模相对比较高的有贵州铜仁德 江县，有 20.59 亿元。（2）台账内政府拖欠企业账款清零：主要涉及贵州、 四川、陕西的区县，具体如贵州铜仁碧江区、贵州铜仁江口县、四川遂宁 船山区及陕西的区县。（3）再融资债券/专项债券可用于解决拖欠企业账 款，但只披露再融资债/专项债规模，未披露解决拖欠企业账款的实际规 模：如广西白色凌云县、广西桂林七星区、贵州贵阳息烽县、河南郑州管 城区、天津东丽区等。 风险提示：数据 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The liquor sector is experiencing a decline in sentiment due to fluctuations in the price of Feitian Moutai, with leading companies actively exploring new consumption scenarios and demographics [2][13] - The health products, soft drinks, and snacks sectors are viewed positively due to high growth potential, low base effects, and upcoming peak seasons [4][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.88% from June 23 to June 27, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.95% [1][22] - Specific sector performances included health products (+3.65%), baked goods (+2.72%), and soft drinks (-0.58%) [1][22] Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor sector declined by 1.66%, attributed to seasonal demand weakness and price fluctuations of high-end products like Feitian Moutai [2][13] - Current prices for 25-year Moutai (original/scattered) are 1870 RMB/1800 RMB, down by 80 RMB/100 RMB from the previous week [2][13] - The Shunwan white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18X, which is considered low compared to the historical average [2][13] Health Products and Snacks - The health products sector is experiencing a growth trend, with a 3.65% increase this week, driven by new consumption trends [20] - The snack sector is expected to benefit from low base effects and new product launches, with companies like Three Squirrels and Salted Fish being highlighted [17][21] Soft Drinks and Beer - The soft drink sector saw a slight decline of 0.6%, with notable performances from brands like Master Kong (+5.4%) and Nongfu Spring (+5.3%) [4][15] - The beer sector declined by 1.9%, but there is optimism for recovery with upcoming consumption policies [4][15] Investment Recommendations - Focus on strong alpha companies in the liquor sector such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, which are expected to benefit from market consolidation [4][21] - In the consumer goods sector, companies that align with cost reduction and market share growth strategies are recommended, including Li Gao Foods and Nongfu Spring [4][21]

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Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The company is expected to continue developing its pre-mixed liquor business with a focus on the 358 product matrix, aiming for positive growth in the upcoming year. The whisky business is anticipated to gain momentum with new product launches and successful channel expansion [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 35 billion and 40 billion RMB respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 15% and 14%. The net profit for 2025 is projected at 8.1 billion RMB, reflecting a 12% increase [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, total revenue is expected to be 30.48 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.61% year-on-year, while net profit is projected at 7.19 billion RMB, down 11.15% year-on-year [8][3] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 7.37 billion RMB, a decline of 8.11% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 7.03% to 1.81 billion RMB [8][3] - The gross margin improved by 2.97 percentage points to 69.7% in 2024, while the net profit margin decreased by 1.21 percentage points to 23.6% [8][3] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company aims for total revenue of 34 billion RMB in 2025 and 40 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 8.1 billion RMB and 9.7 billion RMB [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.77 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.24 [1][3] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 26.33 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 27.63 billion RMB [6] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.89 and a total asset-liability ratio of 41.18% [7][6]