Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The whisky business of the company is poised for growth, with the first batch of whisky barrels filled in October 2021 and expected to be released soon, as they have been stored for nearly three years [2][11]. - The domestic whisky market is still in its early stages, with a market size of 5.5 billion yuan in 2023, significantly smaller compared to the baijiu market [2][13]. - The company is expected to lead the domestic whisky market due to its systematic approach to product localization, consumer education, and channel development [2][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Whisky Business Development - The company began planning its whisky distillery in 2016, with production starting in October 2021. By December 2023, 300,000 barrels had been filled, indicating a significant investment in the whisky sector [2][11]. 2. Domestic Whisky Consumption Market - The domestic whisky market is still developing, with a size of 5.5 billion yuan in 2023, compared to 756.3 billion yuan for baijiu. The whisky market is expected to grow as consumer preferences shift towards more personalized drinking experiences [2][13]. - The majority of whisky consumed in China is imported, with 33,000 tons imported in 2023, valued at 580 million USD. The main consumer demographic is younger individuals, primarily in first-tier and coastal cities [2][15][21]. 3. Domestic Whisky Industry Development - As of March 2024, there are 42 licensed whisky production entities in China, with 26 projects currently operational. The total distillation capacity is projected to reach 250,000 tons [2][24][26]. - The company is the largest player in the domestic whisky market, with significant investments and a focus on local consumer insights and education [2][31]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.82, 0.98, and 1.21 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22, 18, and 15 times based on the closing price of 17.8 yuan on July 31, 2024 [2][4][7].

[Table_Header] 公司深度报告●非白酒 2024 年 08 月 01 日 威士忌业务蓄势待发 [Table_StockCode] 百润股份(002568) [Table_InvestRank] 推荐 (维持) --国产威士忌市场研究 核心观点： [Table百_S润um公m司ar威y]士忌业务蓄势待发：2021 年 10 月百润股份旗下崃州蒸馏厂开始 第一批威士忌灌桶，截止 2023 年 12 月，崃州蒸馏厂灌桶 30 万桶。目前第一 批入桶的威士忌存储已近 3 年，我们预计第一批成品上市时间渐近。本篇我 们梳理了国内威士忌市场现状。我们认为国产威士忌市场发展空间广阔，而 崃州也将成为其中的领军品牌。 国内威士忌消费市场现状：国内威士忌市场尚处于发展早期阶段，2023 年国 内威士忌市场规模 55 亿元，对比国内白酒、海外威士忌市场规模尚属微乎其 微。考虑中国烈酒品类较为单一，且偏重于对外社交和商务场景饮用，而随 着个人化、悦己式饮酒需求提升，威士忌大有可为。目前国内消费的酒仍以 进口为主，苏格兰威士忌占据主要份额，零售价 300 元/瓶左右是被消费较多 的价格带，消费人群偏年轻化，消费地集中在一 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported its 2024 semi-annual results, with revenues of 1.63 billion yuan for H1 and 830 million yuan for Q2, reflecting year-on-year changes of -1.4% and -7.3% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 402 million yuan for H1 and 233 million yuan for Q2, with year-on-year changes of -8.4% and -7.3% respectively [4][5] - The company continues to develop its "358" product matrix, with expectations for strong growth in its flagship products under marketing support. The whisky project is anticipated to contribute additional revenue in the second half of the year [5] Revenue Analysis - For H1 2024, the pre-mixed cocktails (including sparkling water) and food flavoring segments generated revenues of 1.431 billion yuan and 176 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -1.42% and +7.51% respectively. In Q2 2024, the pre-mixed cocktails segment achieved revenues of 719 million yuan, down by 7.56% year-on-year [4] - The company has launched new products and marketing campaigns to expand its consumer base and enhance brand positioning, including the introduction of a new large packaging for its refreshing drinks and a new advertising campaign [4] Profitability Metrics - The company achieved gross margins of 70.08% for H1 and 71.79% for Q2, with year-on-year increases of 4.19 and 5.53 percentage points respectively. The net profit margins were 24.72% for H1 and 28.20% for Q2, showing slight declines of 1.88 and 0.01 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company has maintained a reasonable control over its sales expenses, with a forecast for stable spending throughout the year [4] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.61 billion yuan, 4.31 billion yuan, and 5.05 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 10.5%, 19.5%, and 17.2% [5] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 889 million yuan, 1.03 billion yuan, and 1.23 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 9.5%, 15.7%, and 19.6% respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company is expected to navigate through a high base period smoothly, with a focus on maintaining stable performance despite challenges [1] - The revenue performance aligns with forward expectations, with Q2 revenue at 826 million (down 7.3%) and H1 revenue at 1.628 billion (down 1.4%) [1] - The company anticipates a significant increase in the proportion of its "Refreshing" product line, aiming for over 20% in 2024, which is expected to alleviate pressure from its "Strong Refreshing" products [1] Revenue Analysis - Q2 revenue from pre-mixed and non-pre-mixed beverages decreased by 7.6% and 5.1% year-on-year, respectively [1] - H1 revenue from pre-mixed beverages, which account for nearly 90% of total revenue, saw a slight decline of 1.4%, with volume down 8.7% but price up 8.0% [1] - H1 revenue by channel showed offline sales at 1.43 billion (up 7.0%), online at 160 million (down 42.7%), and ready-to-drink at 20 million [1] Profit Analysis - H1 gross margin improved to 70.1%, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, driven by reduced commercial discounts and a higher offline sales ratio [1] - The net profit margin for H1 decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 24.7%, attributed to increased advertising expenses [1] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.264 billion, 3.441 billion, 4.133 billion, and 4.825 billion for 2024E to 2026E, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.4%, 20.1%, and 16.7% respectively [3][4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 809 million, 858 million, 1.049 billion, and 1.234 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 6.0%, 22.2%, and 17.6% respectively [3][4] Financial Ratios - The projected gross margin for 2024E is 71.0%, increasing to 72.0% by 2026E [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 19.7% in 2024E, rising to 23.9% by 2026E [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 31.55 in 2024E to 13.79 by 2026E [5]

[Table_Stock] 百润股份（002568） 证 券 研 究 报 告 公 司 点 评 -58% -51% -44% -36% -29% -22% -14% -7% 0% 07/23 10/23 12/23 03/24 05/24 07/24 百润股份 沪深300 [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年股票与沪深 300 比较 [Table_BaseInfo] 基本数据 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------| | 最新收盘价（元） | 16.21 | | 12mth A 股价格区间（元） | 15.26-36.65 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,049.37 | | 无限售 A 股/总股本 | 68.35% | | 流通市值（亿元） | 116.27 | 上半年预调酒业务承压，产品矩阵有望 发力 ——2024 年半年报点评 [行业Table_Industry] : 食品饮料 日期: shzqdatemark 2024年08月01日 [Table_Rating] 买入（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 投资摘要 事件 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.628 billion yuan for H1 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 402 million yuan, down 8.36% year-on-year [5] - The revenue from pre-mixed cocktails decreased due to high base effects, consumer environment, and weather conditions, while the revenue from food flavoring increased by 7.5% [5] - The company is expected to improve its earnings with projected EPS of 0.79, 0.92, and 1.07 yuan for 2024-2026, respectively, with a reasonable valuation range of 19.06-22.24 yuan based on a PE of 24-28 times for 2024 [6][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2023, the company achieved a gross margin of 71.79%, an increase of 5.53 percentage points year-on-year, while sales expenses decreased compared to the previous year [5] - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 3.264 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.692 billion yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.9% in 2023 [7][10] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from pre-mixed cocktails is expected to be 2.934 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight increase of 1.8% year-on-year, while food flavoring is projected to reach 358.8 million yuan, growing by 13.3% [8] - The company’s revenue from other businesses, including whiskey, is expected to grow significantly, reaching 253.64 million yuan in 2024, a 300% increase [8] Valuation Metrics - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 21.02 in 2023 to 15.15 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation over time [10] - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 23.5% for the next few years, reflecting consistent profitability [10]

食品饮料/非白酒 公 司 研 究 百润股份（002568.SZ） 2024 年 08 月 01 日 预调酒销售短期承压，下半年新品值得期待 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：增持（维持） 上半年业绩短期承压，下半年新品成长性较好，维持"增持"评级 百润股份 2024 年上半年营收 16.3 亿元，同比-1.4%，归母净利润 4.0 亿元，同比 -8.4%。2024Q2 营收 8.3 亿元，同比-7.3%，归母净利润 2.3 亿元，同比-7.3%， 业绩好于预期。考虑消费需求复苏放缓，我们略下调 2024-2026 年盈利预测，预 计 2024-2026 年归母净利润分别为 8.4（-0.7）亿元、9.7（-1.1）亿元、11.3（-1.7） 亿元，同比分别+3.7%、+15.2%、+16.3%，EPS 分别为 0.80（-0.07）元、0.92（-0.10） 元、1.07（-0.16）元，当前股价对应 PE 分别为 22.3、19.3、16.6 倍。公司预调 酒业务发展平稳，展望下半年来看，清爽系列受益于新品放量有望高增，同时四 季度公司有望推出威士忌新品，打开新成长空间，维持"增持"评级。 预调酒销售短期承压 ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 Q2 预调酒略有压力，盈利能力维稳 公司公告：2024H1 营业收入 16.28 亿元，同比-1.38%；归母净利 4.02 亿元， 同比-8.36%。2024Q2 营业收入 8.26 亿元，同比-7.25%；归母净利 2.33 亿 元，同比-7.28%。 Q2 鸡尾酒下滑大个位数，大罐清爽上市铺货。 1）分业务看，24H1 预调酒收入 14.31 亿元，同比-1.4%，销售量同比-8.7%、 均箱价同比+8.0%；24H1 香精香料业务 1.76 亿元，同比+7.5%，占比+0.8pct 至 11%。24Q2 预调酒收入同比-8%，清爽新品全方位铺市推广。 2）分渠道看，24H1 线下/数字零售/即饮渠道收入 14.30/1.56/0.21 亿元， 同比+7.0%/-35.7%/-42.7%。 3）分区域看，24H1 华东/华南/华北/华西营业收入 5.61/4.68/2.94/2.84 亿 元，同比-8.0%/+4.8%/+6.4%/+0.6%，系华东经销商数量减少，华北仍积极 招商开拓。 4）Q2 末合同负债环比持平，销售收现同比-35.9%。 Q2 毛利率改善明显，销售费率持 ...

公 司 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 其他酒类 ＃investSuggestion＃ 公 司 点 评 报 告 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-----------| | ＃市场数据 marketData＃ | | | 日期 | 2024-7-30 | | 收盘价（元） | 16.21 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,049.37 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 717.28 | | 净资产（百万元） | 4,364.44 | | 总资产（百万元） | 7,555.29 | | 每股净资产（元） | 3.99 | 来源：WIND，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《百润股份年报及一季报点评： 业绩短期承压，期待全年韧性增 长》20240426 《百润股份三季报点评：强爽势 能 延 续 ， 盈 利 表 现 强 劲 》 20231027 《百润股份中报点评：强爽延续 高增，盈利表现强劲》20230728 ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 郭晓东 guoxiaodong@xyzq.com.cn S0190 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The existing business shows resilience, and future development has potential highlights. The company's pre-mixed cocktail products demonstrate consumer resilience, with Q2 2024 performance meeting expectations. The pre-mixed cocktail business achieved revenue of 720 million yuan in Q2 2024, down 7.6% year-on-year, but has stabilized at 710-720 million yuan over the past four quarters, indicating strong consumer resilience [1] - The company has maintained a good profit level, with a net profit margin of 28.2% in Q2 2024, which is flat year-on-year, benefiting from a good gross margin performance and controllable sales expenses. The company is expected to maintain decent profitability in the second half of the year [1] - The whiskey product is nearing its market launch, with the first batch of whiskey barrels filled in October 2021, and the company’s self-made semi-finished product value reaching 740 million yuan by the end of Q2 2024, indicating steady growth [1] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.63 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 402 million yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. The revenue for Q2 2024 was 830 million yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 230 million yuan, also down 7.3% year-on-year [1] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is as follows: 2024E revenue is projected at 3.44 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.28%, and 2025E revenue at 3.97 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.50% [2][3] - The diluted EPS for 2024E is projected at 0.82 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 21.69, and for 2025E, the EPS is projected at 0.98 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 18.26 [2][3]