Summary of Key Points Group 1: Overall Industry Analysis - The report indicates a systemic recovery opportunity for the food and beverage industry in 2026 after a five-year adjustment period from 2021 to 2025, with key external indicators being the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a focus on cyclical attributes in the liquor and catering supply chain [4][19]. - The liquor sector is expected to see a fundamental turning point in Q3 2026, following a significant decline in sales and prices in Q3 2025, with a projected stabilization and recovery in prices as inventory clears and demand rebounds [4][7][19]. - The report emphasizes that if the fundamentals recover as anticipated, a dual boost in valuation and performance is expected by the end of 2026 and into 2027, marking a strategic allocation period for quality companies [4][7][19]. Group 2: Liquor Investment Strategy - The liquor sector has experienced a significant decline in sales, with Q3 2025 showing a 50% year-on-year drop compared to Q3 2023, and high-end liquor prices continuing to fall as the market seeks a balance between volume and price [4][7][8]. - Key recommended companies in the liquor sector include Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Kweichow Moutai, and Wuliangye, with a focus on strategic positioning for quality firms as the market stabilizes [4][7][8]. - Historical performance analysis from 2012 to 2015 suggests that stock price turning points often precede fundamental turning points, indicating a potential recovery in Q3 2026 [4][7][23]. Group 3: Consumer Goods Investment Strategy - The report identifies systemic opportunities in the consumer goods sector, with CPI as a core observation indicator, predicting gradual improvement in food CPI due to structural demand changes and a shift from price competition to quality competition among companies [4][19]. - Recommended companies in the consumer goods sector include Yili Group, Qingdao Beer, Anjuke Food, and Tianwei Food, with a focus on firms that possess pricing power and are positioned for systematic recovery if CPI continues to improve [4][19]. - The report highlights that if CPI improves consistently, leading companies in various sub-sectors will also experience systematic recovery [4][19].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huazhong Securities highlights that New Dairy Industry is poised for significant growth after a period of accumulation, with a clear mid-to-long-term development strategy aimed at achieving double-digit compound annual growth and doubling net profit margins over the next five years [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - From 2001 to 2021, the company completed three rounds of mergers and acquisitions to achieve national coverage and a full industry chain layout [1] - In 2023, the company announced a five-year strategic plan focusing on organic growth as the primary driver, supplemented by investments and acquisitions [1] - The company aims for a clear strategic goal of doubling net profit margins in the medium to long term [1] Group 2: Market Development - The company has been intensifying efforts in the low-temperature sector and enhancing direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel development [1] - Expected revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 11.15 billion, 11.81 billion, and 12.63 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.6%, 5.9%, and 7.0% [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at 720 million, 860 million, and 950 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 19%, and 11% [1] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21x, 18x, and 16x, respectively, which are below the average of comparable companies while showing strong growth potential [1]

Investment Rating - Investment advice indicates a sector recovery catalyzed by recent CPI data, focusing on growth and supply-demand inflection points [5][16]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer goods growth, particularly in beverages, snacks, and food ingredients, while also highlighting structural opportunities in the baijiu sector [5][16]. - CPI data shows a positive trend with October CPI year-on-year at +0.2% and core CPI at +1.2%, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [6][16]. - The baijiu industry is undergoing accelerated clearing, with expectations for improved sales and inventory adjustments leading into 2026 [7][16]. - Consumer goods are expected to benefit from stabilization and recovery, with a focus on low valuation and high dividend stocks [8][16]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended baijiu stocks include Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory, Gujing Distillery, and stable targets like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [5][16]. - Beverage growth is highlighted with recommendations for Eastroc Beverage and Nongfu Spring, alongside low valuation stocks like China Foods and Tingyi [5][16]. - Snack and food ingredient stocks recommended include Bailong Chuangyuan, Yankershop Food, and Three Squirrels [5][16]. - Beer recommendations include Yanjing Brewery and Tsingtao Brewery, while condiment stocks like Haitian Flavoring & Food are also suggested [5][16]. Baijiu Sector Insights - The baijiu sector is experiencing a significant adjustment, with industry destocking still in progress and a focus on promotional sales for 2026 [7][16]. - Recent sales data from JD.com shows a +18% year-on-year increase in liquor sales during the Double 11 shopping festival, indicating a positive market response [7][16]. Consumer Goods Outlook - Consumer goods are expected to see growth as the mainline, with structural differentiation evident in beverages, snacks, and health products [8][16]. - The report notes that companies with product innovation and channel expansion will have growth advantages, particularly in the context of recent service and non-food price recoveries [8][16].

分红方面，新乳业A股上市后累计派现6.76亿元。近三年，累计派现4.48亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，新乳业十大流通股东中，中欧价值智选混合A（166019）位居第 三大流通股东，持股798.37万股，相比上期增加208.09万股。香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流通股 东，持股544.54万股，相比上期增加94.71万股。华泰柏瑞远见智选混合A（012748）位居第五大流通股 东，持股384.81万股，为新进股东。信澳品质回报6个月持有混合（012389）位居第六大流通股东，持 股325.58万股，相比上期减少63.97万股。华夏回报混合A（002001）位居第九大流通股东，持股300.75 万股，为新进股东。华安安信消费混合A（519002）退出十大流通股东之列。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，新希望乳业股份有限公司位于四川省成都市锦江区金石路366号新希望中鼎国际2栋8楼2号， 成立日期2006年7月5日，上市日期2019年1月25日，公司主营业务涉及从事乳制品及含乳饮料的研发、 生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：液体乳91.70%，其他(补充)7.47%，奶粉0.83%。 新乳业所属申万 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Dairy and Beverage Industry Industry Overview - The dairy industry is experiencing a continuous capacity reduction, with expectations for supply-demand balance improvement by mid to late 2026, leading to potential stabilization in milk prices. As of October, milk prices remained stable at 2.94 yuan per kilogram, with a production loss of approximately 0.2 yuan per kilogram and a loss rate of about 5% [2][2][2]. Key Points on Dairy Companies New Dairy Industry - New Dairy reported a strong performance in October, continuing the trend from Q3, with double-digit growth in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt. The company is expanding into new channels, achieving significant revenue from collaborations, and is expected to meet its profit margin targets ahead of schedule by 2026 [4][4][4]. Mengniu Dairy - Mengniu's Q3 results met expectations, with stable market share following price reductions on its flagship product. The company anticipates stable revenue and profit margin growth through 2026, with a relatively low valuation providing investment flexibility [5][5][5]. Yili Group - Despite weak overall demand, Yili's low-temperature milk and other segments showed positive growth, with low-temperature white milk exceeding 20% growth. The company is expected to stabilize its liquid milk business by 2026, benefiting from diversified product offerings and channels [6][7][6][7]. Miao Ke Lan Duo and Youran Dairy - Miao Ke Lan Duo is experiencing rapid growth in the B-end market, with significant C-end product launches. The company is expanding its deep processing of dairy products, which is expected to improve profitability. Youran Dairy is increasing fresh milk supply with stable prices, supporting profits, and is projected to enhance profitability further with a reduction in livestock numbers [8][8][8]. Beverage Industry Insights Master Kong - Master Kong's beverage business saw a slight decline in Q3, but the drop has narrowed in October. The company expects to stabilize its beverage business next year, with a focus on promotional activities and potential price adjustments for its one-liter products [9][10][9][10]. Nongfu Spring - Nongfu Spring's water business experienced double-digit growth in October, with its sugar-free tea brand capturing nearly 80% market share. The company is expected to maintain steady revenue and profit growth, making it a strong long-term investment choice [10][10][10]. Dongpeng Beverage - Dongpeng Beverage reported a nearly 30% growth rate, with ambitious annual targets. The company shows significant growth potential from a valuation perspective [10][10][10]. Investment Recommendations - The dairy sector is recommended for investment due to expected improvements in profitability and market conditions by 2026. Companies like Mengniu, Yili, and New Dairy are highlighted for their growth potential and stable valuations [5][7][4][4]. - In the beverage sector, Master Kong and Nongfu Spring are noted for their resilience and growth prospects, making them attractive investment options [9][10][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a transformation driven by health-conscious consumer trends, product innovation, and channel expansion, with companies actively enhancing their product offerings and exploring overseas markets [1][9]. - In the liquor segment, the supply side is undergoing continuous changes to seek growth, while the demand side is gradually recovering, highlighting the absolute investment value in the industry [2][3]. - The beverage sector is focusing on product innovation and network expansion to uncover growth potential, with a strong emphasis on health upgrades and premiumization [4][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Industry - **Water Well**: The company is optimizing its product matrix and plans to launch a new high-end product in 2025, focusing on brand collaboration and expanding its terminal network [2]. - **Jiu Gui Jiu**: The brand is implementing a strategic focus on brand depth and product line simplification, with expectations for improved sales performance [3]. - **She De Jiu Ye**: The company is maintaining its core strategy while expanding its product offerings, particularly in e-commerce, to drive growth [3]. Beverage Industry - **Kang Shi Fu**: The company is committed to innovation and quality, focusing on expanding its product range to meet diverse consumer needs [4]. - **Unified Enterprises**: The company is experiencing stable performance with a focus on product innovation and market expansion, particularly in the instant noodle and beverage segments [7]. - **Hua Run Beverage**: Short-term performance is under pressure due to competition, but long-term growth prospects remain strong due to the essential nature of its products [7]. Health and Wellness Trends - **Anqi Yeast**: The company is targeting over 10% revenue growth, with a focus on expanding its overseas market presence and maintaining cost advantages [9]. - **Xian Le Health**: The company is advancing its global strategy and product innovation to capture new consumer trends, with a focus on high-margin products [9]. - **Jian Yi Health**: The company is enhancing its probiotic offerings and expanding its product lines to meet evolving consumer demands [10]. Overall Market Trends - The food and beverage industry is witnessing a shift towards healthier products and innovative marketing strategies, with companies adapting to changing consumer preferences and exploring new growth avenues [1][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the strategic configuration period for quality companies [3][7]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown signs of recovery, with retail sales growth of 2.9% year-on-year in October and a 3.8% increase in restaurant revenue, indicating a rebound from previous declines [3][7]. - Major liquor companies have experienced significant revenue declines, but the market is actively seeking a balance between volume and price, suggesting a potential bottoming out of the market [3][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of patience regarding fundamental performance and notes that individual stock performance will vary during this adjustment phase [3][7]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector rose by 2.82% last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.99 percentage points [6]. - Key stocks such as Huanyujia and Sanyuan have shown significant gains, while Dongpeng Beverage and Qianwei Yangchun faced declines [6]. Liquor Sector Analysis - The report indicates that the liquor sector is entering a strategic configuration phase, with expectations of a fundamental turning point in Q3 2026 [8]. - The average price for Moutai is reported at 1655 RMB for loose bottles, with a week-on-week increase of 15 RMB, while the price for Wuliangye remains stable at approximately 830 RMB [8][26]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on sales volume in early 2026, but a stabilization and recovery in prices as inventory clears and demand rebounds [8]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The performance of consumer goods companies has been mixed, with leading firms like Yili and Qingdao Beer maintaining stable operations, while some companies in the snack and beverage sectors have seen a slowdown in revenue growth [9]. - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend yielding companies and those with sustainable growth potential, particularly in the snack and beverage segments [9]. Valuation Metrics - As of November 14, 2025, the food and beverage sector has a dynamic PE of 20.85x, with a premium rate of 27%, while the liquor sector has a dynamic PE of 19.51x, with a premium rate of 18% [27].

证券之星消息，11月13日，新乳业（002946）融资买入1089.44万元，融资偿还1003.52万元，融资净买 入85.92万元，融资余额6518.47万元，近3个交易日已连续净买入累计1733.29万元。 | 交易日 | 融资净买入(元) | 融资余额(元) | 占流通市值比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-13 | 85.92万 | 6518.47万 | 0.42% | | 2025-11-12 | 1171.88万 | 6432.55万 | 0.42% | | 2025-11-11 | 475.49万 | 5260.67万 | 0.34% | | 2025-11-10 | 287.30万 | 4785.18万 | 0.31% | | 2025-11-07 | -1099.69万 | 4497.88万 | 0.32% | 融券方面，当日融券卖出0.0股，融券偿还4300.0股，融券净买入4300.0股，融券余量2.62万股。 | 交易日 | 融券冷卖出(股) | | 融券会重(股) | 融券余额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy Industry's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 24.29% and a recent decline in the last 20 days [1][2] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, New Dairy achieved a revenue of 8.434 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 623 million yuan, up 31.48% year-on-year [2][3] Stock Market Activity - As of November 13, New Dairy's stock price was 17.68 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 15.217 billion yuan. The stock experienced a net outflow of 1.091 million yuan in principal funds [1] - The stock has been on the "龙虎榜" (a stock trading list) once this year, with the last appearance on April 10, where it recorded a net purchase of 67.0816 million yuan [1] Shareholder Information - As of November 10, the number of shareholders for New Dairy was 16,100, a decrease of 1.06% from the previous period, with an average of 52,753 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 1.07% [2][3] - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable funds such as 中欧价值智选混合A and 香港中央结算有限公司, with varying changes in their holdings [3] Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, New Dairy has distributed a total of 676 million yuan in dividends, with 448 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Industry Classification - New Dairy is classified under the food and beverage sector, specifically in the dairy products category, and is associated with concepts such as domestic dairy industry and new retail [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 8.434 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.49%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 623 million yuan, up 31.48% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 647 million yuan, reflecting a 27.62% increase year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.908 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.42%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 226 million yuan, up 27.67% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 236 million yuan, an increase of 21.88% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 improved by 1.57 percentage points to 7.39%, with a gross margin increase of 0.38 percentage points to 29.47%. The expense ratio decreased by 1.26 percentage points to 20.23% [5]. - For Q3 2025, the net profit margin rose by 1.42 percentage points to 7.78%, while the gross margin slightly decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 28.43%. The expense ratio also decreased by 1.46 percentage points to 19.12% [5]. Strategic Positioning - The company adheres to a strategy of regional deep cultivation and differentiated innovation, achieving alpha performance. It focuses on high-end fresh milk and active nutrition products, creating a competitive edge against leading dairy companies [6]. - The high-end product line caters to quality-sensitive consumers, while large-pack products meet cost-performance needs. The company strengthens its direct-to-consumer (DTC) supply chain system as a core competitive advantage [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 703 million yuan and 830 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21 and 18 times [6].