中金研究 数据中心板块从24年年末开始估值提振明显，在25年2月后又经历了大幅回调，本篇报告我们对数据中心板块近期估值表现进行复盘，并对近期投资人 较为关心的问题进行梳理和分析。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 数据中心公司提供服务器托管服务，当前在手订单有望交付支撑未来1-2年业绩增速逐年提升，新签价格尚未提升，但项目回报率有望先于价格改善。 1）数据中心企业以服务器托管为核心，通过提供场地、电力、制冷及网络服务收取租金，通常不参与算力租赁与服务器采购；2）因采用租金模式，数据 中心业绩波动或小于下游资本开支波动，但受益于互联网厂商资本开支提升，具备竞争力数据中心公司AI相关订单明显增长，在手订单能够支撑未来1-2 年业绩增长且业绩增速上呈现25年高于24年、26年高于25年；3）2021-2023年行业供过于求致新签订单租金下行，当前数据中心公司议价权有所提升，我 们认为签约周期延长、优惠期缩短与上架加速有望使得项目IRR先行于行业新签价格提升出现。 受旺盛订单拉动，数据中心资本开支进入上行通道，多元融资渠道支撑资本开支扩张，REITs项目有助于资金回笼提升经营稳定性。 1）数据中心公司需 ...

点击上方"公众号"可订阅哦！ 兴业证券计算机小组 蒋佳霖/孙乾/ 杨本鸿/ 陈鑫/张旭光/杨海盟/桂杨 数据来源:Wind,兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 图 2、计算机行业的标准配置比例 4. 98 4. 58% 5% 3. 86% . 57% 4 4. 11% 3. 57% 4. 18% 4. 04% 3. 36% 56% 3. 54% 23% 4% 3. 3.52% 3, 2. 919 2. 86! 3.09 2. 68% 2- 71 67% 3% 2. 19% 2. 29% 2. 60% 2. 50% 2. 08% 1_38% 1. 65% 2% 1.4 1. 44% 1. 36% 1. 29% 1% 14% 13. 36% 11. 52% 12% 11. 30% 10% 8. 97% 8. 84% 7. 88% 7.72% 8% 7. 50% 6. 3 6. 75% 6. 119 6. 51% 696 4. 67% 5. 00% 4. 80% 4. 35% 4. 8RW 01% 4 496 4. 29% 4. 44% 3.64% A 149 3.78% 3.19% 3. 24% 2. 72% 2. 6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.28 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.38 billion yuan, down 1.68% year-on-year [3]. - The IDC business is expanding steadily, with over 23,000 planned cabinets nationwide and more than 59,000 cabinets in operation as of Q1 2025 [4]. - The company is actively pursuing green initiatives, achieving energy savings of approximately 64.8 million KWH in 2024 and installing solar systems with a capacity of nearly 2,500 KW [4]. - The integration of AI is expected to enhance operational efficiency, although the cloud computing business saw a revenue decline of 11.41% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [5]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 7.66 billion, 8.23 billion, and 8.90 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 0.42 billion, 0.46 billion, and 0.49 billion yuan [5][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 7.28 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.38 billion yuan and a decrease in net profit margin [3][11]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 1.83 billion yuan, with a significant drop in net profit to 0.07 billion yuan, reflecting a 57.8% year-on-year decline [3]. IDC Business Expansion - The company is expanding its IDC operations in key regions, with a focus on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta areas [4]. - The IDC business gross margin was reported at 34.12%, influenced by increased competition and a decline in rental prices [4]. Green Initiatives - The company has implemented energy-saving measures and is developing renewable energy projects, contributing to its commitment to low-carbon operations [4]. AI Integration - The company is leveraging AI technologies to enhance its service offerings, although it faces challenges in cost reduction and efficiency improvements [5]. Future Projections - Revenue and net profit are expected to grow in the coming years, with a projected PE ratio of 57, 52, and 49 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable long-term growth outlook despite short-term challenges [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.281 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 7.31% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 381 million yuan, down 1.68% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 1.832 billion yuan, a decline of 7.41%, with a net profit of 69 million yuan, down 57.82% year-on-year. The primary reasons for these declines are intensified competition and price reductions due to supply-demand imbalances [1][4]. - The company is actively expanding its Internet Data Center (IDC) business across various regions, including investments in Inner Mongolia and the launch of new projects in Tianjin. As of April 2025, the company has planned over 230,000 cabinets nationwide, with more than 59,000 already in operation [2]. - The cloud computing business remains stable, with the company providing extensive cloud services through its partnership with Amazon Web Services. The company has introduced nearly 500 new features or services since its inception, catering to various industries [3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to recover slightly in 2025, with an estimated revenue of 7.694 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.66%. However, net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been significantly reduced to 391 million yuan and 443 million yuan, respectively, due to ongoing competitive pressures [4][10]. - Key financial metrics indicate a decline in profitability, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 3.0% in 2025, slightly improving to 3.7% by 2027. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 65 in 2025 to 50 in 2027, suggesting a more attractive valuation over time [12][13]. Business Advantages - The company benefits from a strategic national layout for its IDC business, with a focus on resource advantages and technological service innovations accumulated over 20 years. This positions the company well for long-term growth despite current market challenges [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing short-term performance impacts due to intensified industry competition and the disposal of operational assets, but it is actively increasing its operational cabinet scale and entering the computing power business, which is expected to gradually improve profitability [1]. Investment Highlights - The rating is maintained at "Buy," with a target price adjusted to 18.05 yuan. The company is projected to achieve revenue of 7.28 billion yuan in 2024 (YoY -7.3%) and a net profit of 346 million yuan (YoY -7.4%). The ongoing price competition in the IDC industry and potential negative impacts from US-China trade tensions are considered, leading to a downward revision of EPS for 2025-2026 to 0.22 (-0.02) and 0.23 (-0.04) yuan, with a new EPS of 0.24 yuan for 2027. The IDC industry's fierce competition, along with the computing power and AI-optimized SaaS business, is expected to provide new growth points, justifying the target price adjustment to 18.05 yuan while maintaining the "Buy" rating [2]. Industry Competition and Performance Impact - The intense competition in the IDC industry continues to affect Q1 2025 performance, with IDC rental prices declining and some clients terminating leases, resulting in a 4% YoY revenue decline in the IDC business. The major client, Amazon, reclaimed 1.22 billion yuan of operational assets at the end of 2024, leading to an 11.4% YoY revenue decline in the cloud computing business and a 5% drop in gross margin. The overall revenue reduction for the year is estimated to be around 100 million yuan, which is considered limited in impact [3][4]. Growth Initiatives - The company is increasing its cabinet deployment and expanding into the computing power business, laying the foundation for future growth. As of Q1 2025, the operational cabinet scale reached 59,000 standard cabinets, an increase of 7,000 from the end of 2023. Projects in Changsha (16,000 cabinets), Shanghai Jiading Phase II (5,000 cabinets), and Tianjin Baodi Phases 1 & 2 (15,000 cabinets) are expected to be operational within the year. The expansion of cabinet scale is beneficial for achieving economies of scale and enhancing bargaining power, thereby improving gross margin performance. Additionally, the company is leveraging its IDC facilities to develop the computing power business, with an existing scale exceeding 4,000 P, which is expected to drive new business growth in the current high-demand market for high-performance computing [4]. Shareholder Returns - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, having approved a profit distribution plan for 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 0.60 yuan (before tax) for every 10 shares. Furthermore, the company has established a "Market Value Management System" and a "Quality Return Dual Improvement" plan to enhance its long-term investment value [4].

截至4月21日收盘，MLOps概念上涨3.42%，位居概念板块涨幅第8，板块内，16股上涨，奥比中光、星 环科技、新炬网络等涨幅居前，分别上涨11.17%、8.76%、4.54%。跌幅居前的有光环新网、传音控股 等，分别下跌0.91%、0.81%。 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金概念 | 4.28 | 租售同权 | -0.21 | | 金属锌 | 3.91 | 同花顺中特估100 | 0.01 | | 金属铅 | 3.84 | 房屋检测 | 0.07 | | 财税数字化 | 3.71 | 低辐射玻璃(Low-E) | 0.15 | | Sora概念(文生视频) | 3.60 | 中船系 | 0.20 | | 云办公 | 3.59 | 超级品牌 | 0.25 | | 华为盘古 | 3.55 | ST板块 | 0.30 | | MLOps概念 | 3.42 | 白酒概念 | 0.39 | | 人形机器人 | 3.39 | 环氧丙烷 | 0.40 | | Web3.0 | 3.36 | 赛马概念 | 0.43 | | ...

Group 1: Project Delivery and Development - The Tianjin Baodi project is expected to complete its first and second phases by mid-2025, with revenue generation starting thereafter [1][2] - The company has acquired 368 acres of industrial land in Tianjin Baodi for the third phase, which has received energy consumption indicators and will be developed based on market demand [2][3] - The overall planning for the Tianjin Phase III project is 140 MW, while the Inner Mongolia and Hohhot projects are planned for 63 MW and 100 MW respectively [4][5] Group 2: Market Conditions and Pricing - The current market supply-demand relationship shows no significant changes, with considerable price pressure [3][4] - Demand primarily comes from leading internet companies and cloud service providers, with competitive pressure leading to lower prices [4] - The rental price for computing power has decreased by 30-40% compared to the same period last year [5] Group 3: Energy Efficiency and Sustainability - The company is focusing on green energy requirements for data centers, utilizing solar systems in various locations to meet these demands [5] - The average energy utilization efficiency and renewable energy utilization rates are being improved in response to national policies promoting low-carbon development [2][3] Group 4: Financial Performance and Challenges - The company's cloud computing business is expected to be impacted by the disposal of assets related to Amazon, with an estimated profit reduction of approximately 100 million due to this [4] - The subsidiary Kexin Shencai reported losses due to client strategy adjustments leading to decreased revenue [4]

Core Insights - The article presents the market capitalization rankings of the top 50 Chinese technology and internet companies as of April 21, 2025, highlighting significant players in the industry [1]. Group 1: Market Capitalization Rankings - JD.com ranks 8th with a market capitalization of $504.58 billion [3]. - SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) is in 9th place with a market cap of $473.13 billion [3]. - Kuaishou Technology holds the 10th position with a market cap of $277.81 billion [3]. - Li Auto is ranked 12th with a market capitalization of $247.49 billion [3]. - Tencent Music is in 14th place with a market cap of $210.91 billion [3]. Group 2: Additional Notable Companies - Xpeng Motors is ranked 16th with a market cap of $173.41 billion [3]. - NIO is in 21st place with a market capitalization of $79.71 billion [3]. - Bilibili holds the 23rd position with a market cap of $67.76 billion, showing an upward trend [3]. - Vipshop is ranked 27th with a market cap of $64.15 billion [4]. - Kingsoft has a market cap of $62.85 billion, placing it 28th [4]. Group 3: Market Trends - The rankings reflect the competitive landscape of the Chinese technology sector, with significant fluctuations in market capitalizations among the top companies [1]. - The data is calculated based on the daily market values, converted using the current exchange rate between USD and HKD [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - US stock index futures fell on Monday, and the US dollar index dropped below 99.00 for the first time since April 2022 [2] - Trump hinted at a desire to lower tariffs on China, suggesting a potential agreement within a month [2] - The domestic stock market is being supported by government efforts to stabilize the market and promote healthy development in the real estate sector [5][11] Group 2: Company Developments - MP Materials has ceased exporting rare earth concentrates to China, which may lead to a tightening of domestic supply and a potential increase in overseas rare earth prices [4][12] - Tesla's production of the low-cost Model Y may be delayed until next year, with significant sales declines reported in Europe, particularly in Germany, Denmark, and Sweden, where sales fell over 50% [3] - The first quarter saw significant profit increases for several companies, including: - Cambrian Technology with a net profit of 355 million yuan, turning a profit year-on-year [16] - Zhongji Xuchuang with a net profit of 1.583 billion yuan, up 56.83% year-on-year [16] - Zhengdan Co. with a net profit of 389 million yuan, a 558.59% increase year-on-year [16] Group 3: Industry Trends - The consumer electronics industry is experiencing a recovery, driven by demand for passive components like MLCCs, with prices rising due to increased orders and low inventory levels [13] - The humanoid robot industry is gaining traction, with the first humanoid robot half-marathon held in Beijing, showcasing advancements in robotics and potential market expansion [14] - The AI sector is driving demand for passive components, with projections indicating that the demand for MLCCs in AI applications will grow at an annual rate exceeding 30% by 2030 [13]

Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a slight decline in revenue, with total operating income of 7,281,210,349.39 yuan, down 7.31% from 2023's 7,855,463,201.81 yuan, indicating pressure in core business areas and a need for structural optimization [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.68% to 381,444,821.85 yuan from 387,958,854.70 yuan in 2023, highlighting the need for improved profitability despite a small decline [3] - The company's net profit after excluding non-recurring items fell by 7.43% to 346,380,452.97 yuan, indicating significant challenges in core business profitability [4] - Basic earnings per share decreased by 4.55% to 0.21 yuan from 0.22 yuan in 2023, reflecting reduced shareholder returns [5] - The diluted earnings per share also declined, further emphasizing the need to enhance core competitiveness [6] Expense Analysis - Sales expenses increased by 7.58% to 40,563,140.37 yuan, indicating greater investment in market expansion to address competition [7] - Management expenses grew slightly by 2.78% to 270,973,314.82 yuan, suggesting stable operational management costs [8] - Financial expenses saw a significant decrease of 61.65% to 83,464,811.80 yuan, primarily due to the repayment of all dollar loans, alleviating debt pressure [9] - R&D expenses rose by 14.98% to 293,242,271.43 yuan, reflecting a commitment to technological innovation [10] Cash Flow Insights - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased significantly by 19.3% to 1,311,614,092.43 yuan, indicating weakened cash generation capabilities [13] - The net cash flow from investing activities was negative at -2,384,425,402.17 yuan, a substantial decline due to increased investment in data center construction and intelligent computing projects [14] - The net cash flow from financing activities turned positive at 335,559,543.52 yuan, a recovery from -1,531,964,553.36 yuan in 2023, due to successful fundraising efforts [15] R&D and Personnel Analysis - The number of R&D personnel decreased to 309 from 381, with a reduction in master's degree holders, which may impact innovation capabilities [11] - R&D investment as a percentage of operating income increased to 4.03% from 3.25%, focusing on energy efficiency and intelligent operations in core business areas [12] Risk Factors - The company faces risks related to scale expansion, including increased operational costs and management complexity [16] - Financing risks are present due to rising bank loan amounts, increasing overall financing costs [17] - Compliance risks arise from stricter national energy-saving policies, which could affect project delivery [19] - Operational cost risks are heightened by rising costs associated with energy-saving initiatives and insufficient capacity release [20] - Industry competition risks are exacerbated by oversupply in the IDC market, leading to price wars [21] - Accounts receivable risks are increasing, with a 4.68% rise in accounts receivable as a percentage of total assets [22] - Potential goodwill impairment risks exist due to market competition and operational performance of acquired entities [23] Management Compensation - The chairman received a pre-tax compensation of 1.488 million yuan, linked to company performance [24] - The general manager's pre-tax compensation was 1.5025 million yuan, aimed at incentivizing business development [25] - Vice presidents received varying compensation based on their roles and contributions, ranging from 805,100 to 1,186,800 yuan [26] - The financial director received 1.0068 million yuan, ensuring financial stability for the company [27] Conclusion and Outlook - The company faces challenges in revenue and net profit, with significant declines in cash flow from operations [28] - There are various risks related to scale expansion, financing, and compliance that need to be managed effectively for sustainable growth [28]