证券研究报告 | 2025 年 11 月 07 日 制作：产品中心 《固收|2025 经济收官答卷如何书写？——宏观数据预测专题》 1、工业增加值：预计 10 月当月同比为 5.5%。10 月生产 PMI 较前值下降 2.2pct 至 49.7%，位于荣枯线以下，采购量指数降至 49.0%，显示生产积极 性边际回落，预计 10 月工增环比可能低于季节性，10 月工业增加值同比 增速为 5.5%。往后展望，高技术制造和消费相关制造有望维持韧性，但考 虑到四季度政策效果可能边际减弱，叠加地产偏弱和出口后劲不足的影 响，预计四季度工业增加值同比为 5.3%。2、贸易：预计 10 月出口当月 同比 3.0%，进口当月同比 3.0%。预计 10 月进口环比负增，同比增长 3.0%， 预计四季度进口维持韧性，全年进口增速或小幅转正。3、通胀：预计 10 月 CPI 当月同比持平，PPI 当月同比-2.2%。CPI 方面，10 月猪价继续探底， 重点监测蔬菜平均批发价和农产品价格指数较上月回升，预计 10 月 CPI 同比基本持平，四季度 CPI 同比约 0.3%。PPI 方面，10 月南华工业品价格 指数回落，煤炭、钢铁 ...

三季度业绩仍在下滑 公司发布2025 年三季报，前三季度实现营业收入54.79 亿元，同比减少6%，归母净利润1.44 亿元，同 比减少60%。3Q 单季实现营业收入17.63亿元，同比减少8%、环比减少6%，归母净利润2858 万元，同 比减少69%、环比减少38%。业绩下滑的原因是IDC 毛利率下降，以及购买的公有云服务相关的特定经 营性资产到期处置。 盈利预测与投资建议 由于公司前三季度业绩持续下滑，我们略调整预测，预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为2.00 亿 元、4.28 亿元、5.62 亿元（原预测2025-2027年分别为3.67 亿元、4.57 亿元、5.51 亿元）。基于公司 IDC 业务机架逐步达产，上架率有望逐步提高，同时AI 算力需求正从训练逐步转向推理，公司拥有核 心区域资源、未来有望受益，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示：产业政策趋严可能带来的运营风险；行业竞争加剧导致的风险；运营成本增加带来的风险； 算力租赁可能带来的经营风险。 云计算业务受到特定经营性质资产到期处置影响 2025 年前三季度云计算收入37.19 亿元，同比减少9.83%，云计算业务毛利率为7.30%，较上 ...

公司报告 | 季报点评 光环新网（300383） 证券研究报告 三季度业绩依然承压，IDC 收入增长抬头 三季度业绩仍在下滑 公司发布 2025 年三季报，前三季度实现营业收入 54.79 亿元，同比减少 6%，归母净利润 1.44 亿元，同比减少 60%。3Q 单季实现营业收入 17.63 亿元，同比减少 8%、环比减少 6%，归母净利润 2858 万元，同比减少 69%、 环比减少 38%。业绩下滑的原因是 IDC 毛利率下降，以及购买的公有云服 务相关的特定经营性资产到期处置。 IDC 收入增速抬头 2025 年前三季度 IDC 业务收入 16.67 亿元，同比增长 1.53%，第三季度 IDC 收入 5.96 亿元，同比增长 8.74%，近年来国内 IDC 市场供给增加迅猛，短 期内部分地区面临供需失衡的状况，市场竞争加剧导致租赁价格下降。25 年公司数据中心投产速度提速明显，截至目前新投放机柜已超过 1.6 万个， 已投产机柜总数超过 7.2 万个，新投放机柜数量较大，转固带来的固定成 本增加明显。同时随着运营规模持续扩大，数据中心建设前期费用、固定 成本、运营成本等持续增加。另外受客户上架周期影响 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that major overseas AI companies are continuously increasing capital expenditures, focusing on AI infrastructure development, with significant growth in cloud business performance [5][6][19] - The report emphasizes a strong outlook for the "optical, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power" sectors, recommending specific stocks within these areas [7][25] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas AI Financial Summary - Google raised its capital expenditure guidance for 2025 to $91-93 billion, with Q3 capital expenditure reaching $23.953 billion, a year-on-year increase of 83% [5][15] - Meta's Q3 revenue was $51.24 billion, exceeding expectations, with a projected annual expenditure of $70-72 billion for 2025 [16] - Microsoft's Q1 FY2026 revenue reached $77.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with significant growth in its cloud segment [17][18] - Amazon's Q3 revenue was $180.2 billion, with AWS net sales of $33.006 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase [19][20] - Celestica's Q3 revenue was $3.19 billion, a 28% increase year-on-year, leading to an upward revision of its annual guidance [21] 2. Communication Data Tracking - As of August 2025, the total number of 5G base stations in China reached 4.646 million, with 5G mobile phone users totaling 1.154 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.46% [34][12] - The report notes that 5G mobile phone shipments reached 19.992 million units in August 2025, accounting for 88.4% of total shipments, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1.2% [41] - The three major telecom operators showed strong growth in innovative business development, with significant revenue increases in their cloud services [45][50]

Core Viewpoint - Guanghuan Xinnet's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent increase of 2.17% on October 31, 2023, despite a year-to-date decline of 6.06% [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Guanghuan Xinnet reported a revenue of 5.479 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 144 million yuan, down 60.23% year-on-year [2] - The company has cumulatively distributed 601 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 288 million yuan distributed over the last three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Guanghuan Xinnet had 145,000 shareholders, an increase of 6.84% from the previous period, with an average of 12,366 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 6.41% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable ETFs, with E Fund's ChiNext ETF holding 29.82 million shares, a decrease of 5.0018 million shares from the previous period [3] Market Activity - The stock's trading volume on October 31 was 384 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.58% and a total market capitalization of 24.537 billion yuan [1] - The stock has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" twice this year, with the most recent occurrence on February 25 [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent adjustments in QFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) holdings in A-shares as companies disclose their Q3 reports, highlighting a clear trend in foreign investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Sovereign Wealth Fund Adjustments - Sovereign wealth funds like the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and the Monetary Authority of Macao have shown distinct trading behaviors, with ADIA significantly increasing its holdings in cyclical resource stocks, particularly Baofeng Energy, which now has a market value exceeding 790 million yuan [3][4]. - In contrast, the Monetary Authority of Macao has adopted a more defensive and stable investment strategy, focusing on resource, environmental, and manufacturing sectors, with a total market value of 1.14 billion yuan across six stocks [3][4]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has reduced its holdings in Chengde Lolo, now holding 9.3 million shares, indicating a cautious approach compared to ADIA's aggressive positioning [4]. Group 2: Traditional Foreign Banks' Strategies - Major foreign banks like Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Goldman Sachs have shown a trend towards concentrated investments in high-certainty sectors, with Morgan Stanley holding 42 A-shares valued at 2.874 billion yuan, focusing on electric power equipment and digital infrastructure [5][6]. - Morgan Chase has the largest coverage with 71 A-shares, significantly increasing its stake in China West Electric from 56.82 million shares to 130 million shares, reflecting a strategic shift towards high-potential stocks [5]. - UBS has diversified its holdings across 55 A-shares, emphasizing mid-to-small-cap growth stocks, while Goldman Sachs has concentrated on resource and chemical stocks, indicating varied investment philosophies among these institutions [5][6]. Group 3: Common Holdings Among Foreign Institutions - Several stocks have emerged as "foreign consensus stocks," held by three or more foreign institutions, indicating strong compatibility in valuation, fundamentals, and policy direction [7][8]. - Notable examples include Chengfei Integration, which is held by multiple institutions with a total market value exceeding 132 million yuan, and Innovation Medical, favored by four foreign entities [7][8]. - Other stocks like Lianhuan Pharmaceutical and Xingwang Yuda have also gained traction among foreign investors, showcasing a trend towards core assets in advanced manufacturing, healthcare, TMT, and military materials sectors [8].

Group 1: Software ETF Performance - The Software ETF has a turnover of 3% during trading, with a transaction volume of 1.69 billion yuan [3] - Over the past month, the Software ETF has an average daily transaction volume of 604 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - In the last two weeks, the Software ETF's scale increased by 410 million yuan, achieving significant growth and ranking first in new scale among comparable funds [3] - In the last 10 trading days, there were net inflows of funds for 7 days, totaling 1.017 billion yuan [3] - As of October 22, 2025, the net value of the Software ETF has increased by 12.43% over the past three years [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 39.35%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 3 months and a maximum increase of 69.40% [3] - The average return during the months of increase is 10.06% [3] Group 2: Key Holdings and Market Insights - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Software Service Index include iFlytek, Tonghuashun, Kingsoft Office, and others, accounting for a total of 62.41% [3] - Huatai Securities indicates that the AI application ecosystem is becoming increasingly complete, with rapid penetration of large model technology in finance, healthcare, and education [3] - The commercialization process of AI is exceeding market expectations, supported by increased policy backing and accelerated domestic computing power construction [3] - Key enterprises in the AI industry chain are expected to continue benefiting, with investment opportunities in computing infrastructure and AI application software [3] Group 3: Manufacturing Sector Insights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that China's manufacturing sector has largely achieved its 2025 phase goals and will continue to develop towards a medium-level position in the global manufacturing power by 2035 [4] - The industrial sector has become a core driver of GDP growth, with high prosperity in equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and digital products [4] - As manufacturing PMI continues to improve and industrial AI accelerates, the importance of technological self-reliance is highlighted against the backdrop of increased US tariffs and software export restrictions [4] - Key areas such as CAD, CAE, and industrial operating systems are expected to see continuous breakthroughs [4] - Investors can also consider the Software ETF linked fund (012620) to capitalize on AI software investment opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure and urgently needs to increase the volume of domestic computing power cards. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.96% lower year-on-year, primarily due to intensified competition in certain IDC markets leading to a decrease in rental prices, adjustments in customer deployment strategies, and reduced cloud computing business revenue [4][5] - The company has over 72,000 operational cabinets and is expected to benefit from the AIGC wave as the demand for computing power for training and inference gradually releases. However, due to short-term supply constraints of computing power cards, profit forecasts have been revised downwards [4][5] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - For 2025, the expected revenue is 76.37 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9%. The expected net profit attributable to the parent company is 2.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 47% year-on-year [4][8] - The company's EBITDA for 2025 is projected to be 1.35 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 117.8, 53.8, and 42.5 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8] - The gross profit margin for the IDC business is 32.12%, while the cloud computing business has a gross profit margin of 7.30% [5] Business Segments - The IDC business achieved revenue of 5.96 billion yuan in Q3 2025, an increase of 8.74% year-on-year, driven by accelerated cabinet deployment. The cloud computing business generated revenue of 11.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.44% year-on-year due to ongoing optimization of customer structure [5] - The company is actively advancing IDC project construction in multiple locations, including Inner Mongolia, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Changsha, with various projects at different stages of development [6]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.763 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 7.63% [2] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 28.5813 million yuan, down 69.43% year-on-year [2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 5.479 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.96% compared to the same period last year [2] - The net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 was 144 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 60.23% [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.479 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.96% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 144 million yuan, down 60.23% compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Performance Overview - The decline in performance is attributed to a rapid increase in supply within the domestic IDC market, leading to an imbalance in supply and demand in certain regions [1] - Increased market competition has resulted in a decrease in rental prices [1] - The company has accelerated the production speed of its data centers, resulting in a significant increase in the number of newly deployed cabinets, which has led to a noticeable rise in fixed costs [1] Group 2: Cost and Margin Analysis - As the operational scale continues to expand, the company faces rising costs related to data center construction, fixed costs, and operational expenses [1] - The gross margin for IDC business has dropped to 32.12%, a decrease of 3.55% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 3: Cloud Computing Business - The cloud computing segment generated a revenue of 3.719 billion yuan in the first nine months, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.83% [2] - The gross margin for cloud computing is reported at 7.30%, down 1.46% from the previous year [2] - The decline in cloud computing revenue is influenced by client business adjustments and the company's proactive optimization of its client structure [2] - The disposal of specific operational assets related to public cloud services has negatively impacted cloud computing revenue by approximately 95.81 million yuan, with an expected reduction of about 100 million yuan in cloud computing revenue for the 2025 fiscal year [2]