Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Heston Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, serving as a market fear index. Implied volatility reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility [8]. - **Model Construction Process**: The Heston model is a stochastic volatility model where the variance of the asset price follows a mean-reverting square-root process. The model is defined by the following equations: $ dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sqrt{v_t} S_t dW_t^1 $ $ dv_t = \kappa (\theta - v_t) dt + \sigma \sqrt{v_t} dW_t^2 $ Here: - \( S_t \): Asset price - \( v_t \): Variance - \( \mu \): Drift rate - \( \kappa \): Mean reversion speed - \( \theta \): Long-term variance - \( \sigma \): Volatility of variance - \( W_t^1, W_t^2 \): Correlated Wiener processes [8] 2. Model Name: Multi-Sector Timing Model (Scissor Difference Strategy) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the difference in the number of bullish and bearish signals among sector constituents to construct a timing strategy. If no bullish or bearish signals are present, the scissor difference is set to zero. The model aims to outperform sector indices [16]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Count the number of bullish and bearish signals for each sector's constituent stocks daily. - Compute the scissor difference as the difference between bullish and bearish signals. - If both counts are zero, the scissor difference is set to zero. - Construct a timing strategy based on the scissor difference ratio [16]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model historically outperformed all sector indices, demonstrating excellent backtesting performance [16]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Heston Model - **Implied Volatility Results**: - SSE 50: 11.85% (down 0.88% WoW) - SSE 500: 14.35% (down 1.59% WoW) - CSI 1000: 18.06% (down 0.42% WoW) - CSI 300: 12.64% (down 0.73% WoW) [10] 2. Multi-Sector Timing Model - **Sector Outperformance**: The model outperformed all sector indices, achieving a 100% success rate in backtesting [16]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Shape-Based Timing Signals - **Factor Construction Idea**: Shape-based signals are derived from historical K-line patterns, including bullish patterns (e.g., "Golden Needle Bottom," "Rocket Launch," "Manjianghong") and bearish patterns (e.g., "Hanging Line," "Paradise Line," "Dark Cloud Cover"). These patterns indicate potential price reversals [24]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Identify specific K-line patterns based on predefined criteria. - Evaluate the historical performance of these patterns in predicting price movements. - Use the patterns to generate timing signals for individual stocks [24]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Bullish patterns like "Golden Needle Bottom" and "Rocket Launch" demonstrated strong positive predictive power [24]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Shape-Based Timing Signals - **Signal Statistics**: - Positive signals: 2,699 occurrences, with an average future high-point success rate of 28.25% - Negative signals: 3,525 occurrences, with an average future low-point success rate of 71.88% [13] 2. Sector Timing Signals - **Bullish Sectors**: Home Appliances, Comprehensive, Communication, Textile & Apparel, Consumer Services, Transportation, Petrochemicals [19] 3. Stock-Specific Signals - **Consecutive Bullish Signals**: - 5-day signals: Stocks like Kailong Co. and Shipu Testing [21] - 4-day signals: Stocks like Jiangnan Chemical, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and Nandu Property [22][23] - **Special Bullish Patterns**: - Stocks like Retired Longyu ("Arrow on the String") and Suotong Development ("Manjianghong") [25][26] 4. Broker Gold Stock Signals - **Highlighted Stocks**: BYD, Feilihua, Wancheng Group, Sichuan Road & Bridge, Wolong Electric Drive, Lansheng Co., PetroChina, Dongpeng Beverage [29][33]

上海华测导航技术股份有限公司 简式权益变动报告书 上市公司名称：上海华测导航技术股份有限公司 股票上市地点：深圳证券交易所 股票简称：华测导航 股票代码：300627 信息披露义务人：宁波上裕创业投资合伙企业（有限合伙） 注册地址：浙江省宁波市北仑区梅山七星路 88 号 1 幢 401 室 A 区 F0693 通讯地址：浙江省宁波市北仑区梅山七星路 88 号 1 幢 401 室 A 区 F0693 股份变动性质：持股比例下降（被动稀释、主动减持） 签署日期：二零二五年六月十三日 上海华测导航技术股份有限公司 简式权益变动报告书 信息披露义务人声明 一、本信息披露义务人依据《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简称"《公司 法》"）、《中华人民共和国证券法》（以下简称"《证券法》"）、《上市公 司收购管理办法》（以下简称"《收购办法》"）、《公开发行证券的公司信息 披露内容与格式准则第 15 号——权益变动报告书》及相关的法律、法规和规范 性文件编写本报告书。 二、依据《证券法》《收购办法》的规定，本报告书已全面披露了信息披露 义务人所持有的上海华测导航技术股份有限公司股份情况。 截至本报告书签署之日，除本报告书披露的 ...

关于持股5%以上股东权益变动至5%以下的提示性公告 持股5%以上的股东宁波上裕创业投资合伙企业（有限合伙）保证向公司提 供的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一致。 特别提示： 1、本次权益变动性质为持股比例下降（被动稀释、主动减持），不触及要 约收购。 证券代码：300627 证券简称：华测导航 公告编号：2025-057 上海华测导航技术股份有限公司 2、本次权益变动后，宁波上裕创业投资合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称 "上裕创投"）持有上海华测导航技术股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股份 的比例下降至5%以下。 3、本次权益变动不会导致上市公司控制权发生变更，不会对公司治理结构 及持续性经营产生不利影响。 近日，公司收到持股5%以上的股东上裕创投发来的《简式权益变动报告书》。 本次权益变动后，信息披露义务人上裕创投持有公司股份为27,915,631股，占公 司目前总股本的4.99999%。现将本次权益变动的具体内容公告如下： 一、本次权益变动的基本情况 （一）本次权益变动情况 本次权益变动情况如下： 1 证券代码：300 ...

证券代码：300627 证券简称：华测导航 公告编号：2025-058 上海华测导航技术股份有限公司 2024年年度权益分派实施公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 上海华测导航技术股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）2024年 年度权益分派方案已获2025年5月12日召开的2024年年度股东大会审议通过。现 将权益分派事宜公告如下： 一、股东大会审议通过权益分派方案的情况 2、自2024年年度利润分配及资本公积金转增股本预案披露至实施期间，公 司股本总额因公司实施股权激励而增加，公司总股本由2025年4月17日的 549,462,674股增加至2025年6月13日的558,313,854股。公司按照分配比例不变的 原则，即每10股派发现金股利5元（含税）不变，每10股转增4股不变，相应调整 现金分红总额和转增股本总额。 3、本次实施的利润分配方案与公司2024年年度股东大会审议通过的方案及 调整原则一致，不存在差异。 4、本次权益分派实施时间距离股东大会通过权益分派方案不超过两个月。 二、本次实施的权益分派方案 公司2024年年度权益 ...

证券代码：300627 证券简称：华测导航 公告编号：2025-056 上海华测导航技术股份有限公司 关于 2025 年第一期限制性股票激励计划授予登记完成的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 根据《上市公司股权激励管理办法》《深圳证券交易所创业板上市公司自律 监管指南第 1 号——业务办理》以及深圳证券交易所、中国证券登记结算有限责 任公司深圳分公司有关规则的规定，上海华测导航技术股份有限公司（以下简称 "公司"）完成了 2025 年第一期限制性股票激励计划（以下简称"本激励计划"） 限制性股票的授予登记工作，现将有关情况公告如下： 一、本激励计划已履行的决策程序和信息披露情况 （一）2025 年 3 月 11 日，公司召开第四届董事会第十二次会议，会议审议 通过了关于《公司<2025 年第一期限制性股票激励计划（草案）>及其摘要》的 议案、关于《公司<2025 年第一期限制性股票激励计划实施考核管理办法>》的 议案、关于《提请股东大会授权董事会办理公司 2025 年第一期限制性股票激励 计划相关事项》的议案。公司董事会薪酬 ...

证券代码：300627 证券简称：华测导航 公告编号：2025-055 上海华测导航技术股份有限公司 关于公司2022年限制性股票激励计划第三个归属期归属结果暨 股份上市的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 上海华测导航技术股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 5 月 21 日召 开了第四届董事会第十六次会议和第四届监事会第十六次会议，审议通过关于《公司 2022 年限制性股票激励计划第三个归属期符合归属条件》的议案，董事会认为公司 2022 年限制性股票激励计划（以下简称"本激励计划"）的第三个归属期归属条件 已经成就，同意按规定为符合条件的 1 名激励对象办理 103.60 万股第二类限制性股 票归属相关事宜。近日，公司已办理完成 2022 年限制性股票激励计划第三个归属期 限制性股票的归属登记工作。现将有关事项说明如下： 一、2022 年限制性股票激励计划实施情况概要 （一）2022 年限制性股票激励计划简介 公司分别于 2022 年 1 月 28 日与 2022 年 2 月 14 日召开第三届董事会第十三次 ...

证券代码：300627 证券简称：华测导航 公告编号：2025-054 上海华测导航技术股份有限公司 关于股东部分股票解除质押及质押的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、股东股票解除质押及质押的基本情况 上海华测导航技术股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）近日接到公司控股股 东、实际控制人赵延平先生及其一致行动人上海太禾行企业发展合伙企业（有限 合伙）（以下简称"太禾行"）函告，获悉赵延平及太禾行与广发证券股份有限 公司（以下简称"广发证券"）办理了股票解除质押业务及股票质押业务。具体 事项如下： | 股东名称 | 是否为控 股股东或 第一大股 | 本次解除 质押数量 | 占其所 持股份 | 占公司 总股本1 | 质押起 | 质押解 | 质权人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 东及其一 | （股） | 比例 | 比例 | 始日 | 除日 | | | | 致行动人 | | （%） | （%） | | | | | 赵延平 | 是 | 7,740,000 | 6.99 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating for Huace Navigation (300627.SZ) [1] Core Views - Huace Navigation achieved a revenue of 3.251 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.38%, and a net profit of 583 million yuan, up 29.89% year-on-year [4][10] - The satellite navigation industry is experiencing significant growth, with the global GNSS downstream market expected to increase from 260 billion euros in 2023 to 580 billion euros by 2033 [5] - The company has a strong competitive advantage in high-precision navigation positioning technology, with a well-structured business layout across four key sectors [18][23] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 789 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.91%, and a net profit of 143 million yuan, up 38.50% year-on-year [4] - The company's revenue is projected to grow to 3.985 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 740 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 26.8% [11][10] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 58.1%, with a net margin of 17.9% [34][41] Business Segments - The Resources and Public Utilities segment is projected to generate 1.425 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a 26.41% increase year-on-year [26] - The Construction and Infrastructure segment is expected to achieve 1.053 billion yuan in revenue, growing by 8.97% year-on-year [27] - The Geographic Information segment is anticipated to reach 589 million yuan in revenue, reflecting a 38.44% increase year-on-year [28] - The Robotics and Autonomous Driving segment is forecasted to generate 185 million yuan in revenue, up 15.53% year-on-year [29] Market Outlook - The domestic satellite navigation and positioning service industry is projected to grow to 536.2 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 7.09% [5] - The demand for high-precision navigation positioning is expected to expand due to advancements in robotics, autonomous driving, and urban infrastructure [5][9] Research and Development - The company has invested significantly in R&D, with over 1,000 intellectual property applications, including more than 400 invention patents [32] - R&D efforts focus on high-precision GNSS algorithms, laser radar technology, and autonomous driving solutions [32][31] Valuation - The estimated P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 33.5, 26.4, and 20.9 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [10][41]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated stable revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 3.251 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.38%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 583 million yuan, up 29.89% year-on-year [2][9]. - The satellite navigation industry is experiencing significant growth, with the global GNSS downstream market expected to increase from 260 billion euros in 2023 to 580 billion euros by 2033, indicating a robust demand for high-precision navigation solutions [4][9]. - The company has a well-structured business model with four main segments: Resources and Public Utilities, Construction and Infrastructure, Geographic Information, and Robotics and Autonomous Driving, each contributing to overall growth [5][22]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.251 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.2% over five years. The net profit for the same year was 583 million yuan, with a CAGR of 33.3% [22][9]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was reported at 58.1%, showing a slight increase from the previous year [10][33]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.35 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.5 based on the closing price on May 28, 2025 [9][40]. Business Segments - The Resources and Public Utilities segment generated 1.425 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.41%, with a gross margin of 54.71% [6][25]. - The Construction and Infrastructure segment reported a revenue of 1.053 billion yuan, up 8.97% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 68.41% [7][26]. - The Geographic Information segment achieved a revenue of 589 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 38.44% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 53.1% [8][27]. - The Robotics and Autonomous Driving segment generated 185 million yuan in revenue, an increase of 15.53% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 41.95% [8][28]. Market Outlook - The report highlights the ongoing technological advancements in 5G, cloud computing, big data, AR, AI, and IoT, which are expected to drive the demand for high-precision navigation solutions [8][9]. - The domestic market for satellite navigation and positioning services is also growing, with a reported industry scale of 536.2 billion yuan in 2023, up 7.09% year-on-year [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the telecommunications sector [10] Core Insights - The combined capital expenditure of BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) for Q1 2025 reached 54.4 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 105% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 23% [2][3][15] - The decline in capital expenditure is attributed to the impact of NVIDIA's H20 export restrictions, but the long-term growth trend in capital expenditure is expected to remain intact [2][3][17] - The report suggests focusing on domestic GPU capabilities and related supply chains, including optical modules, AIDC, switches, and copper connections, as they are likely to fill the demand gap created by the restrictions [2][3][17] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The telecommunications index fell by 2.31% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.57% and 0.46%, respectively [2][14] Key Companies and Dynamics - The report highlights a positive outlook for the AI computing chain in the telecommunications industry for 2025, recommending companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, Taicheng Light, and Ruijie Network [4] - Core asset value reassessment is recommended for China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, along with a focus on new productivity in satellite internet, low-altitude economy, and deep-sea technology [4] Capital Expenditure Insights - In Q1 2025, Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent's capital expenditures were 2.9 billion, 24 billion, and 27.5 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +42%, +136%, and +91% [3][15] - The report notes that the capital expenditure for Q1 is typically lower than that of Q4 in previous years, indicating a seasonal trend [17] Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on companies involved in the domestic GPU supply chain and related industries due to the anticipated growth in AI applications and infrastructure investments [2][3][17]