Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price remains weak, and the logic of destocking may gradually strengthen. The price of pigs is currently at 11.85 yuan/kg, with the industry facing losses [3][18] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation. The report anticipates that under the influence of capacity control policies, pig prices may stop falling and rebound earlier than expected [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality development in the industry, with a clear direction for capacity control policies. Companies that lead in cost and connect with farmers are expected to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine sector is experiencing fluctuations, with DeKang Agriculture leading the gains at +9% week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, and futures prices are rising, but the stock market has not reacted [3][18] - The report emphasizes the need for solution-oriented enterprises as the industry policy shifts towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [4][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector continues to face a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with the price of broiler chickens at 3.50 yuan/kg and chick prices at 3.60 yuan each. The report suggests that integrated enterprises may increase their market share due to losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [5][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the domestic industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization. The company is expected to achieve growth beyond expectations [6][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry shows a strong concentration of leading brands, with the top five brands remaining stable. The report notes that the competition among leading brands is intensifying, leading to potential pressure on profit margins, but sales growth remains high [9][21] - The report predicts that the market concentration will increase, with the CR5 expected to reach nearly 40% in the next five years [11][23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's November supply and demand report did not exceed expectations, leading to a significant drop in soybean prices. The report indicates that domestic soybean inventories are high, and the supply remains sufficient [13][25] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report notes that the agricultural index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, with agricultural product processing performing the best at +6.40% [26]

Group 1 - The poultry concept sector rose by 1.90%, ranking fourth among concept sectors, with 15 stocks increasing in value, including Yike Food which hit a 20% limit up [1] - Leading stocks in the poultry sector included Lihua Co., Jingji Zhino, and Guanghong Holdings, which saw increases of 1.91%, 1.48%, and 1.29% respectively [1] - The stocks that experienced the largest declines were Luoniushan, Huadong Co., and Xiaoming Co., with decreases of 3.80%, 1.50%, and 1.11% respectively [1] Group 2 - The poultry concept sector attracted a net inflow of 275 million yuan from main funds, with 10 stocks receiving net inflows, and 5 stocks exceeding 10 million yuan in net inflow [2] - The top stock for net inflow was Tianma Technology, which saw a net inflow of 246 million yuan, followed by Yike Food, Huaying Agriculture, and Jingji Zhino with net inflows of 75.81 million yuan, 56.13 million yuan, and 42.85 million yuan respectively [2] - The net inflow ratios for Tianma Technology, Yike Food, and Jingji Zhino were 25.15%, 19.08%, and 17.33% respectively [3] Group 3 - The trading performance of Tianma Technology showed a daily increase of 10.03% with a turnover rate of 12.06% and a main fund flow of 245.60 million yuan [3] - Yike Food had a daily increase of 19.98% with a turnover rate of 6.92% and a main fund flow of 75.81 million yuan [3] - Other notable stocks included Huaying Agriculture with a daily increase of 10.03% and a main fund flow of 56.13 million yuan, and Jingji Zhino with a daily increase of 1.48% and a main fund flow of 42.85 million yuan [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the pig farming industry, indicating that the downward cycle is nearing its end, with a potential upward turning point expected in 2026 [3][19] - The pet economy remains a key growth area, highlighting investment opportunities in niche sectors [4] Group 1: Industry Overview - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming segment, is experiencing a downturn, with 2025 expected to see continued losses, leading to a price bottom in the first half of 2026 [5][19] - The chicken farming sector is also under pressure, with expectations of supply-side stabilization and demand recovery in 2026 [20] - The cattle farming sector is projected to face a supply contraction starting in 2026, which may last until 2027 [21] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The pet food industry is anticipated to maintain its growth trajectory, with leading companies increasing their market share despite challenges in export performance [5][4] - The blueberry market in Yunnan is expected to see profit realization from 2024 to 2025, with growth potential continuing into 2026-2027 [5] - The artificial cultivation of Cordyceps is gaining traction as natural production declines, with early movers in this space likely to see performance improvements [5] Group 3: Key Companies to Watch - The report identifies several key companies for investment consideration, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, DeKang Agriculture, TianKang Biological, and others in the pet food sector [5]

Core Insights - The swine industry is experiencing significant losses, with the average selling price of live pigs dropping to 11.56 yuan/kg, leading to a loss of 71.95 yuan per head for self-bred pigs [1] - Analysts suggest that the current oversupply and weak demand may result in a "non-peak" season for pork prices in Q4, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector [1] - The industry is expected to undergo capacity reduction, which may lead to an upward adjustment of pork price levels by 2026, benefiting low-cost producers [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 18, 2025, the China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) showed mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Muyuan Foods (002714) leading with a 0.43% increase [1] - The Livestock ETF (516760) was quoted at 0.7 yuan [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 65.58% of the total index weight, indicating a concentration in a few key players [2] Group 2: Stock Performance - The stock performance of key companies includes: - Muyuan Foods (002714): +0.43%, weight 11.37% - Haida Group (002311): +0.34%, weight 9.52% - Biological Shares (600201): +0.25%, weight 3.91% - Other notable declines include New Hope (000876): -1.01% and Tian康 Biological (002100): -1.96% [4]

Group 1 - The aquaculture sector experienced a decline of 1.81% on November 17, with Lihua Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03, down 0.46%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13202.0, down 0.11% [1] - Key stocks in the aquaculture sector showed mixed performance, with Fucheng Co. increasing by 2.43% and Lihua Co. decreasing by 3.30% [2] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the aquaculture sector was 534 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 297 million yuan [2] - The top stocks by net inflow included Zhengbang Technology with a net inflow of 13.26 million yuan from main funds, while ST Tianshan had a net inflow of 6.55 million yuan [3] - Retail investors showed significant interest in stocks like Zhengbang Technology and ST Tianshan, despite overall negative trends in main and speculative funds [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for meat chickens is entering a peak season, providing price support, while egg prices are declining, leading to accelerated culling of laying hens [8] - The report highlights the performance of various poultry segments, including white feathered chickens, yellow feathered chickens, and laying hens, with specific price trends and inventory changes [13][23][31] Summary by Sections 1. White Feathered Chickens - The average sales price for white feathered meat chickens in October 2025 was 6.93 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg month-on-month. The breeding loss was 1.78 yuan per bird, continuing a trend of losses [13] - The price of white feathered chicken seedlings rose to 3.39 yuan each, an increase of 0.58 yuan month-on-month, indicating positive stocking activity ahead of the peak demand season [14] - The total inventory of white feathered grandparent stock was 2.0209 million sets, down 1.30% month-on-month, with a decrease in both breeding and backup stock [14] 2. Yellow Feathered Chickens - The average sales price for medium-speed yellow feathered chickens in October was 12.86 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.03% month-on-month. The demand is supporting price stability [23] - The sales volume of parent yellow feathered chicken seedlings increased by 8.87% month-on-month, while the total inventory of yellow feathered grandparent stock decreased by 2.65% [23] 3. Laying Hens - The average price of laying hen seedlings was 2.80 yuan each, up 7.69% month-on-month, while the wholesale price of eggs dropped to 5.72 yuan/kg, down 20.11% month-on-month [31] - The profit from laying hen farming was -24.44 yuan per bird, a decrease of 26.56 yuan month-on-month, indicating pressure on profitability due to high inventory levels and low egg prices [31] 4. Sales and Revenue Trends - In October, the sales volume of chicken products showed mixed results, with some companies experiencing declines in sales volume but increases in revenue due to higher average prices [43][49] - For example, Xiantan Co. reported a chicken sales volume of 52,900 tons, down 1.37% month-on-month, but an increase in sales revenue to 456 million yuan, up 4.05% month-on-month [43]

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is experiencing significant losses, leading to accelerated capacity reduction, while the dairy market faces supply-demand imbalances, impacting livestock numbers and prices [1][2]. Group 1: Pig Farming Industry - The pig farming sector has been in a state of continuous loss for several weeks, with the national average price of commercial pigs dropping by 28% year-on-year in Q3 2025, and major listed pig companies seeing a 68% decline in net profit [1]. - Current asset-liability ratios in the industry are well-controlled, but there is a noticeable divergence between the growth rate of pig sales and cost control, indicating a shift from cyclical to efficiency-driven competition [1]. - Due to ongoing losses and policy guidance, it is expected that capacity reduction will accelerate, laying the groundwork for a future price recovery [1]. Group 2: Dairy and Beef Market - Dairy prices have fallen below the previous cycle's bottom, highlighting a significant supply-demand imbalance, with dairy cow inventory decreasing by over 8% cumulatively in October [1]. - The beef market is entering an upward price trend, with expectations of price fluctuations in November and December due to the winter consumption peak [1]. - Long-term projections suggest that the beef cycle's price increase may exceed expectations, particularly benefiting companies with cow resources [1]. Group 3: Index and Stock Performance - The CSI Livestock Breeding Index (930707) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Tianma Technology (603668) leading with a 5.06% increase, while Jinnong (002548) is the biggest loser [1]. - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Livestock Breeding Index account for 65.58% of the index, with Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuffs (300498) being the largest components [2]. - The performance of the top ten stocks varies, with Muyuan Foods down 3.63% and Wens Foodstuffs down 2.10% [3].

Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 13.493 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.38% [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased to 287 million yuan, a decline of 75.27% compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 292 million yuan, down 74.36% year-on-year [1][2] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 1.341 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 25.75% year-on-year [1][2] Company Background - The company was listed on February 18, 2019, with an initial public offering of 41.28 million shares at a price of 29.35 yuan per share [1][3] - The total amount raised from the initial public offering was 1.212 billion yuan, with a net amount of 1.150 billion yuan intended for various integrated poultry and feed projects [3] Capital Raising Activities - The company raised a total of 2.482 billion yuan from its initial public offering and a subsequent private placement in 2022 [5] - In May 2023, the company announced a dividend plan, distributing 8 yuan per 10 shares (pre-tax) and a bonus issue of 8 shares [5]

Core Viewpoint - Lihua Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in stock price recently, with a year-to-date increase of 10.13% and a significant drop in net profit for the first nine months of 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On November 17, Lihua's stock price fell by 2.03%, trading at 20.77 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 17.39 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has seen a 3.93% decline over the last five trading days and a 5.59% decline over the last 20 days, while it has increased by 3.75% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Lihua reported a revenue of 13.493 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 287 million CNY, a decrease of 75.27% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 2.063 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.114 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Lihua had 16,000 shareholders, a decrease of 23.50% from the previous period, with an average of 39,351 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 30.72% [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include the Guotai Zhenzhong Livestock Breeding ETF, which holds 7.4603 million shares as a new entrant [3].

证券之星消息，11月14日养殖业板块较上一交易日下跌1.04%，立华股份领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3990.49，下跌0.97%。深证成指报收于13216.03，下跌1.93%。养殖业板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日养殖业板块主力资金净流出2.3亿元，游资资金净流入1.4亿元，散户资金净流入 9079.05万元。养殖业板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 301116 | 益客食品 | | 1134.56万 | 9.18% | -850.36万 | -6.88% | -284.20万 | -2.30% | | 000735 | 罗牛山 | | 378.00万 | 0.56% | 849.12万 | 1.26% | -1227.11万 | -1.82% | | 002321 | 华英农业 | | 311.98万 | 1.43% | -342.27万 | -1 ...