证券代码：300761 证券简称：立华股份 公告编号：2026-004 江苏立华食品集团股份有限公司 关于实际控制人之一致行动人股份解质押的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 江苏立华食品集团股份有限公司（以下简称公司）于近日收到实际控制人之 一致行动人常州市天鸣农业技术服务中心（有限合伙）的通知，获悉其持有的部 分股份办理了解质押业务。具体情况公告如下： 一、股份解除质押的基本情况 注 1：上表所述限售股份不包括高管锁定股，不存在股份冻结情形，下同。 二、股东股份累计质押情况 截至本公告披露日，公司实际控制人及其一致行动人所持股份质押情况如下： | | | | | | | | 已质押股份情 | | 未质押股份情 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 况 | | 况 | | | | 持股数量 | 持股 | 本次质押前 | 本次质押后 | 质押股 份占其 | 质押股 份占公 | 已质押 股份限 | 占已 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The public fund allocation in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has decreased by 0.15 percentage points, currently at a low allocation level of approximately 1.01%, which is 0.38 percentage points below the standard allocation ratio of 1.39% [15][21] - The report highlights a continued decline in holdings across various sub-sectors, with the feed sector experiencing the most significant drop of 0.14 percentage points [21] - Major public fund holdings are concentrated in leading companies within the livestock breeding industry and related agricultural sectors, with notable stocks including Muyuan Foods (0.28%), Wens Foodstuffs (0.07%), and others [22][24] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Allocation - The public fund allocation in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is approximately 1.01%, down 0.15 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a low allocation level compared to the standard ratio of 1.39% [15] 2. Sub-sector Holdings - The holdings in the feed and breeding sectors have both decreased, with the feed sector at 0.47% (down 0.14 percentage points) and the breeding sector at 0.43% (down 0.01 percentage points) [21] 3. Major Holdings - The report indicates that public fund holdings are primarily in leading companies in the livestock breeding chain and related agricultural sectors, with significant holdings in Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others [22] 4. Investment Recommendations - In the pig farming sector, the report suggests that companies with cost advantages will have a significant competitive edge, recommending major players like Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, while also highlighting potential in smaller firms like Tian Kang Biological and Shennong Group [37] - For the poultry sector, the report notes potential supply declines due to avian influenza, recommending attention to companies like San Nong Development and Yisheng Biological [37] - In the feed sector, the report remains optimistic about leading companies expanding their market share domestically and internationally, emphasizing the importance of cost efficiency [37] - The report also suggests monitoring developments in biotechnology and industry consolidation in the planting sector, recommending companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [37] - In the pet industry, the report highlights the trend towards market consolidation and recommends companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [37]

Core Insights - In December 2025, 16 major pig farming companies in China achieved a total sales volume of 17.72 million pigs, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.51% and a month-on-month increase of 7.15% [1][5][6] - The total revenue for these companies in December was 22.104 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.85% but a month-on-month increase of 4.87% [1][5][11] Sales Volume Analysis - The leading company, Muyuan Foods, sold 6.98 million pigs in December, while Wens Foodstuffs and New Hope reported sales of over 1.8 million pigs each [1][6] - Jin Xin Nong and Zhengbang Technology experienced significant sales growth, with increases exceeding 70% year-on-year, while four companies, including Muyuan Foods and Tangrenshen, saw declines of over 10% [1][6][10] Revenue Analysis - The revenue figures for December showed that Jin Xin Nong and Zhengbang Technology had revenue growth rates exceeding 20%, while four companies, including Zhenghong Technology and Tiankang Biological, reported revenue declines of over 30% [1][11] - Muyuan Foods generated 9.667 billion yuan in revenue for December, down 36.06% year-on-year, while Wens Foodstuffs and New Hope also reported declines of 11.38% and 10.75%, respectively [10][12] Price Trends - The average transaction price for pigs in the national market fluctuated around 15 yuan per kilogram in early 2025, dropping to a low of 11.05 yuan per kilogram in the latter half of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Lihua Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 550-600 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 60.55%-63.84% [1] Financial Performance - Q4 2025 is projected to generate a profit of 263-313 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 27%-13.1% [1] - The market was sluggish in the first half of the year, but sales prices began to recover in the second half, leading to profitability in the yellow chicken sector starting from August [1] Operational Strategy - The company is enhancing refined management across all segments to maintain cost advantages [1] - There is an accelerated expansion into the chilled market, with an expected processing capacity of approximately 90 million fresh meat chickens in 2025, accounting for about 15.87% of the total annual chicken sales [1] Sector Performance - Due to price factors, the profitability of the pig sector is expected to decline year-on-year in 2025, although operational profits in the pig farming segment are anticipated to increase [1] - The yellow chicken and pig sectors are expected to achieve complementary profitability in the first and second halves of the year, partially offsetting the impact of the industry cycle downturn [1] Future Outlook - A rebound in pig and chicken prices in 2026 is expected to release profit elasticity [1] - The company is a leading player in the yellow feathered chicken breeding industry, targeting an annual growth rate of 8-10% for yellow feathered chicken output, while maintaining sufficient pig farming capacity and continuous cost optimization [1] - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of yellow chickens has decreased year-on-year, leading to a decline in the company's performance for 2025, with expected net profit dropping by 61%-64% compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.5-6 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 61%-64% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 5.3-5.9 billion yuan, also down by 61%-65% [1] - For Q4, the expected net profit is between 2.6-3.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13%-27%, with a non-recurring net profit of 2.4-3 billion yuan, down by 20%-36% [1] Group 2: Sales and Production - In 2025, yellow chicken output is expected to grow by 10% year-on-year, with sales revenue approximately 14.3 billion yuan, remaining flat compared to the previous year, and an average selling price of 11.4 yuan/kg, down by 12% [2] - The total yellow chicken output for 2025 is projected to be around 567 million birds, with a profit from yellow chicken operations estimated at 2.3-2.8 billion yuan [2] - In Q4, yellow chicken output is expected to be about 150 million birds, with a sales price of approximately 12.3 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 1% [2] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The company maintains a leading position in breeding and cost efficiency, with a projected output increase of 8%-10% in 2026 [3] - In 2025, pig output is expected to grow by 63% year-on-year, generating revenue of about 3.6 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 13.9 yuan/kg, down by 21% [3] - The estimated cost of pig production is around 12.5 yuan/kg, with an average profit of 160-170 yuan per head, leading to an overall profit from pig operations of approximately 3.2-3.5 billion yuan [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue improving breeding costs due to enhanced production metrics such as litter rate, daily weight gain, and survival rate [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.69, 1.91, and 2.27 yuan per share, respectively, with a target price of 28.72 yuan per share based on a 15X PE ratio for 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 28.72 CNY per share based on a 15X PE for 2026 [18]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in livestock output over the past 25 years, with a leading position in cost management within the industry [1]. - The decline in chicken and pig prices has negatively impacted the company's annual performance, with a projected net profit decrease of 61%-64% for the year [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from its cost advantages in chicken farming and the continued improvement in pig farming costs, leading to a potential rebound in earnings [18]. Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenue for 2023 is 15,354 million CNY, with a growth rate of 6.3%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 23,167 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 10.5% [2]. - The EBITDA for 2023 is forecasted at 604 million CNY, increasing to 3,468 million CNY by 2027 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -437 million CNY in 2023, recovering to 1,904 million CNY by 2027 [2]. 2. Livestock Output and Cost Management - In 2025, the company is expected to have a chicken output of approximately 567 million birds, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a revenue of about 143 billion CNY [7]. - The average selling price for chicken is projected to be 11.4 CNY per kg, down 12% year-on-year, while the average cost is estimated at 11.2 CNY per kg, maintaining a profit margin of 0.4-0.5 CNY per bird [7]. - The pig output is expected to reach 2.11 million heads in 2025, a 63% increase, with revenue of approximately 36 billion CNY [8]. 3. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its leading cost position in chicken farming and continue to expand its market share, with chicken output projected to grow by 8%-10% in 2026 [7]. - The pig farming segment is also expected to see steady growth, with output projected at 2.5 million heads in 2026 and 3 million heads in 2027 [18]. - The overall earnings growth is anticipated to be driven by both chicken and pig farming, with high elasticity in performance due to cost advantages and market dynamics [18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the price of yellow chickens has rebounded in Q4, leading to an improvement in profitability on a quarter-on-quarter basis [2][5]. - The company is a leading player in the yellow feathered chicken breeding industry, with a target annual growth rate of 8-10% for yellow feathered chicken output [5]. - The report anticipates a rebound in pig and chicken prices in 2026, which is expected to release profit elasticity for the company [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.5-6 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 60.55%-63.84% [5]. - In Q4, the company sold 567 million meat chickens, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, with an average selling price of 11.40 yuan/kg, down 11.9% year-on-year [5]. - The company sold 211.16 million live pigs in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 62.7%, with an average selling price of 13.85 yuan/kg, down approximately 19.94% year-on-year [5]. Profitability and Cost Management - The report indicates that the company has maintained cost advantages through refined management across various segments, leading to improved profitability in the yellow chicken segment starting from August [5]. - The report projects that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 5.75 billion yuan in 2025, 12.02 billion yuan in 2026, and 13.03 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.69 yuan, 1.44 yuan, and 1.56 yuan respectively [5][6]. Market Outlook - The report notes a decrease in the breeding stock of yellow feathered chickens, which is expected to support price stability in 2026 [5]. - The report also mentions that the pig price is expected to rise due to a reduction in industry capacity, which could enhance profitability for the company [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the price of yellow chickens has rebounded in Q4, leading to an improvement in profitability compared to the previous quarter [2][5]. - The company is a leading player in the yellow feathered chicken breeding industry, with a target annual growth rate of 8-10% for yellow feathered chicken output [5]. - The report anticipates a rebound in pig and chicken prices in 2026, which is expected to release profit elasticity for the company [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.5-6 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 60.55%-63.84% [5]. - In Q4, the company sold 567 million meat chickens, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, with an average selling price of 11.40 yuan/kg, down 11.9% year-on-year [5]. - The company sold 211.16 million live pigs in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 62.7%, with an average selling price of 13.85 yuan/kg, down approximately 19.94% year-on-year [5]. Profitability and Cost Management - The report indicates that the company has maintained cost advantages through refined management across various segments, leading to improved profitability in the yellow chicken segment in Q4 [5]. - The company’s production efficiency for pigs has improved, with the total cost in Q3 dropping to approximately 12.6 yuan/kg, and further improvements expected in Q4 [5]. Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 5.75 billion, 12.02 billion, and 13.03 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.69, 1.44, and 1.56 yuan [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from a decrease in the supply of yellow feathered chickens and sows, which may lead to higher prices in 2026 [5].

Group 1 - The poultry industry, specifically the yellow feather chicken sector, has entered an upward cycle since Q4 2025, with the company leading in cost efficiency [1][3] - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.5 to 6 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-over-year decline of 60.6% to 63.8% [2] - In Q4 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 2.63 to 3.13 billion yuan, with a year-over-year decrease of 13.1% to 27% [2] Group 2 - The company plans to sell approximately 567 million yellow chickens in 2025, a 10% increase year-over-year, with an average selling price of 11.4 yuan per kilogram [2] - In Q4 2025, the company expects to sell 150 million yellow chickens at an average price of 12.3 yuan per kilogram, contributing approximately 3 to 3.5 billion yuan to profits [2] - The company is also expanding its fresh meat market, with plans to process about 90 million fresh chicken products in 2025 [2] Group 3 - The company’s pig farming business shows significant advantages, with a projected output of approximately 2.1116 million pigs in 2025, a 63% increase year-over-year [2][3] - In Q4 2025, the company expects to sell 606,000 pigs at an average price of 11.88 yuan per kilogram, with an estimated loss of 30 to 40 yuan per pig [2] - The company’s cost structure for pig farming is among the best in the industry, with expectations for further cost reductions [3] Group 4 - The company maintains a "strong buy" investment rating, anticipating continued growth in the yellow chicken market and a long-term leading position in pig farming profitability [4] - The company projects net profits of 5.65 billion yuan in 2025, 11.67 billion yuan in 2026, and 12.16 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.67, 1.39, and 1.45 yuan [4] - The company aims to expand its market presence beyond East China, expecting annual growth rates of 8% to 10% in yellow chicken output [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company has a significant competitive advantage in pig farming and has seen a major contribution to profits from yellow-feathered chickens in Q4. The yellow chicken industry has entered a growth phase since Q4 2025, with the company leading in cost efficiency. The long-term development prospects are viewed positively [1][7]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 5.5 to 6 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 60.6% to 63.8%. The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be between 0.66 and 0.72 yuan [7]. - The yellow chicken segment is expected to see a 10% increase in output in 2025, with a sales price of 11.4 yuan per kilogram. The company anticipates a profit contribution of approximately 3 to 3.5 billion yuan from yellow chickens in Q4 [7]. - The pig farming segment is projected to have an output of about 2.1116 million pigs in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 63%. The average sales price is expected to be 13.85 yuan per kilogram [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 15.354 billion yuan in 2023 to 24.121 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11% [12][17]. - The company’s operating profit is expected to recover from a loss of 402 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 1.257 billion yuan in 2027 [12][17]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from -5.4% in 2023 to 11.8% in 2027, indicating a recovery in profitability [18]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence outside of East China, with expectations of maintaining an annual growth rate of 8% to 10% in yellow chicken output [7]. - The company’s cost structure in pig farming is among the best in the industry, with expectations for continued improvement in profitability due to enhanced farming efficiency [7].